Climatic Changes Lead to Declining Winter Chill for Fruit and Nut Trees in California during 1950–2099
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{"title"=>"Climatic changes lead to declining winter chill for fruit and nut trees in California during 1950-2099", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Eike", "last_name"=>"Luedeling", "scopus_author_id"=>"6507462612"}, {"first_name"=>"Minghua", "last_name"=>"Zhang", "scopus_author_id"=>"56004320000"}, {"first_name"=>"Evan H.", "last_name"=>"Girvetz", "scopus_author_id"=>"8725138300"}], "year"=>2009, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"isbn"=>"1932-6203", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-67749142357", "pui"=>"354999833", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0006166", "sgr"=>"67749142357", "pmid"=>"19606220", "issn"=>"19326203"}, "id"=>"54b2b062-366d-3f32-9b02-90f2951ef706", "abstract"=>"BACKGROUND: Winter chill is one of the defining characteristics of a location's suitability for the production of many tree crops. We mapped and investigated observed historic and projected future changes in winter chill in California, quantified with two different chilling models (Chilling Hours, Dynamic Model).\\n\\nMETHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Based on hourly and daily temperature records, winter chill was modeled for two past temperature scenarios (1950 and 2000), and 18 future scenarios (average conditions during 2041-2060 and 2080-2099 under each of the B1, A1B and A2 IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3 and MIROC climate models). For each scenario, 100 replications of the yearly temperature record were produced, using a stochastic weather generator. We then introduced and mapped a novel climatic statistic, \"safe winter chill\", the 10% quantile of the resulting chilling distributions. This metric can be interpreted as the amount of chilling that growers can safely expect under each scenario. Winter chill declined substantially for all emissions scenarios, with the area of safe winter chill for many tree species or cultivars decreasing 50-75% by mid-21st century, and 90-100% by late century.\\n\\nCONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Both chilling models consistently projected climatic conditions by the middle to end of the 21st century that will no longer support some of the main tree crops currently grown in California, with the Chilling Hours Model projecting greater changes than the Dynamic Model. The tree crop industry in California will likely need to develop agricultural adaptation measures (e.g. low-chill varieties and dormancy-breaking chemicals) to cope with these projected changes. For some crops, production might no longer be possible.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/climatic-changes-lead-declining-winter-chill-fruit-nut-trees-california-during-19502099", "reader_count"=>84, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>7, "Librarian"=>1, "Researcher"=>25, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>9, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>15, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>7, "Other"=>5, "Student > Bachelor"=>9, "Professor"=>4}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>7, "Librarian"=>1, "Researcher"=>25, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>9, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>15, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>7, "Other"=>5, "Student > Bachelor"=>9, "Professor"=>4}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>39, "Arts and Humanities"=>2, "Philosophy"=>1, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>1, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>1, "Chemistry"=>1, "Computer Science"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>9, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2, "Engineering"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>21, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>3}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>21}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>2}, "Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Chemistry"=>{"Chemistry"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>9}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>39}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>1}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>1}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Philosophy"=>{"Philosophy"=>1}, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>{"Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>4, "Philippines"=>1, "France"=>2, "Spain"=>1}, "group_count"=>9}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/441306", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/441331", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/441360", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/441404"], "description"=>"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Winter chill is one of the defining characteristics of a location's suitability for the production of many tree crops. We mapped and investigated observed historic and projected future changes in winter chill in California, quantified with two different chilling models (Chilling Hours, Dynamic Model).</p><h3>Methodology/Principal Findings</h3><p>Based on hourly and daily temperature records, winter chill was modeled for two past temperature scenarios (1950 and 2000), and 18 future scenarios (average conditions during 2041–2060 and 2080–2099 under each of the B1, A1B and A2 IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3 and MIROC climate models). For each scenario, 100 replications of the yearly temperature record were produced, using a stochastic weather generator. We then introduced and mapped a novel climatic statistic, “safe winter chill”, the 10% quantile of the resulting chilling distributions. This metric can be interpreted as the amount of chilling that growers can safely expect under each scenario. Winter chill declined substantially for all emissions scenarios, with the area of safe winter chill for many tree species or cultivars decreasing 50–75% by mid-21<sup>st</sup> century, and 90–100% by late century.</p><h3>Conclusions/Significance</h3><p>Both chilling models consistently projected climatic conditions by the middle to end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century that will no longer support some of the main tree crops currently grown in California, with the Chilling Hours Model projecting greater changes than the Dynamic Model. The tree crop industry in California will likely need to develop agricultural adaptation measures (e.g. low-chill varieties and dormancy-breaking chemicals) to cope with these projected changes. For some crops, production might no longer be possible.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["climatic", "changes", "declining", "trees", "california"], "article_id"=>146985, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Medicine", "Cancer"], "users"=>["Eike Luedeling", "Minghua Zhang", "Evan H. Girvetz"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006166.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006166.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006166.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006166.s004"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>11, "page_views"=>12, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Climatic_Changes_Lead_to_Declining_Winter_Chill_for_Fruit_and_Nut_Trees_in_California_during_1950_2099/146985", "title"=>"Climatic Changes Lead to Declining Winter Chill for Fruit and Nut Trees in California during 1950–2099", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2009-07-22 01:56:25"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/890177"], "description"=>"<p>Overview of California's Central Valley, showing the distribution of orchards that require winter chill, the major producing counties and the subdivisions of the Central Valley analyzed separately in this study.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["orchards", "producing", "counties", "subdivisions", "separately"], "article_id"=>560637, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Eike Luedeling", "Minghua Zhang", "Evan H. Girvetz"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006166.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Overview_of_California_s_Central_Valley_showing_the_distribution_of_orchards_that_require_winter_chill_the_major_producing_counties_and_the_subdivisions_of_the_Central_Valley_analyzed_separately_in_this_study_/560637", "title"=>"Overview of California's Central Valley, showing the distribution of orchards that require winter chill, the major producing counties and the subdivisions of the Central Valley analyzed separately in this study.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2009-07-22 00:10:37"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/890388"], "description"=>"<p>Future winter chill was quantified using the A2 IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenario.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["calculated", "chilling"], "article_id"=>560852, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Eike Luedeling", "Minghua Zhang", "Evan H. Girvetz"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006166.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Safe_winter_chill_in_California_s_Central_Valley_in_1950_2000_2041_8211_2060_and_2080_8211_2099_calculated_with_the_Chilling_Hours_Model_/560852", "title"=>"Safe winter chill in California's Central Valley in 1950, 2000, 2041–2060 and 2080–2099, calculated with the Chilling Hours Model.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2009-07-22 00:14:12"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/890497"], "description"=>"<p>Future winter chill was quantified using the A2 IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenario.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["calculated"], "article_id"=>560957, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Eike Luedeling", "Minghua Zhang", "Evan H. Girvetz"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006166.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Safe_winter_chill_in_California_s_Central_Valley_in_1950_2000_2041_8211_2060_and_2080_8211_2099_calculated_with_the_Dynamic_Model_/560957", "title"=>"Safe winter chill in California's Central Valley in 1950, 2000, 2041–2060 and 2080–2099, calculated with the Dynamic Model.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2009-07-22 00:15:57"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/890304"], "description"=>"<p>In box plots, the central line indicates the median of the distribution, the edges of the boxes are the 25% and 75% quantiles, error bars are the 10% and 90% quantiles, and dots indicate outliers.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["estimates", "chilling", "100-year", "synthetic", "records"], "article_id"=>560759, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Eike Luedeling", "Minghua Zhang", "Evan H. Girvetz"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006166.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Distribution_of_annual_winter_chill_estimates_in_Chilling_Hours_for_Davis_CA_based_on_100_year_synthetic_weather_records_for_each_point_in_time_/560759", "title"=>"Distribution of annual winter chill estimates (in Chilling Hours) for Davis, CA, based on 100-year synthetic weather records for each point in time.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2009-07-22 00:12:39"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/890590"], "description"=>"*<p>Future projections were done for the B1 (low), A1B (moderate) and A2 (high) IPCC emission scenarios.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["deviations", "modeled", "regions"], "article_id"=>561048, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Eike Luedeling", "Minghua Zhang", "Evan H. Girvetz"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006166.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Means_and_standard_deviations_of_safe_winter_chill_modeled_for_four_regions_in_California_s_Central_Valley_for_1950_2000_2041_2060_and_2080_2099_/561048", "title"=>"Means and standard deviations of safe winter chill modeled for four regions in California's Central Valley for 1950, 2000, 2041–2060<sup>*</sup> and 2080–2099<sup>*</sup>.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2009-07-22 00:17:28"}

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Relative Metric

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