Projected Evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change
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{"title"=>"Projected evolution of California's San Francisco bay-delta-river system in a century of climate change", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"James E.", "last_name"=>"Cloern", "scopus_author_id"=>"7004100736"}, {"first_name"=>"Noah", "last_name"=>"Knowles", "scopus_author_id"=>"36943746600"}, {"first_name"=>"Larry R.", "last_name"=>"Brown", "scopus_author_id"=>"55469592200"}, {"first_name"=>"Daniel", "last_name"=>"Cayan", "scopus_author_id"=>"7005265210"}, {"first_name"=>"Michael D.", "last_name"=>"Dettinger", "scopus_author_id"=>"7004651463"}, {"first_name"=>"Tara L.", "last_name"=>"Morgan", "scopus_author_id"=>"53363836300"}, {"first_name"=>"David H.", "last_name"=>"Schoellhamer", "scopus_author_id"=>"6701360568"}, {"first_name"=>"Mark T.", "last_name"=>"Stacey", "scopus_author_id"=>"7102845469"}, {"first_name"=>"Mick", "last_name"=>"van der Wegen", "scopus_author_id"=>"23981695100"}, {"first_name"=>"R. Wayne", "last_name"=>"Wagner", "scopus_author_id"=>"7404299228"}, {"first_name"=>"Alan D.", "last_name"=>"Jassby", "scopus_author_id"=>"6701912835"}], "year"=>2011, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"sgr"=>"80053061838", "issn"=>"19326203", "isbn"=>"1932-6203 (Electronic) 1932-6203 (Linking)", "pmid"=>"21957451", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0024465", "pui"=>"362603895", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-80053061838"}, "id"=>"73cc796b-05be-3462-847e-83afd99adf2b", "abstract"=>"BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species.\\n\\nMETHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations.\\n\\nCONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21(st) century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/projected-evolution-californias-san-francisco-baydeltariver-system-century-climate-change", "reader_count"=>165, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>9, "Researcher"=>48, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>5, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>31, "Student > Postgraduate"=>4, "Student > Master"=>25, "Other"=>14, "Student > Bachelor"=>14, "Lecturer"=>3, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>2, "Professor"=>7}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>9, "Researcher"=>48, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>5, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>31, "Student > Postgraduate"=>4, "Student > Master"=>25, "Other"=>14, "Student > Bachelor"=>14, "Lecturer"=>3, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>2, "Professor"=>7}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>6, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>49, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>1, "Computer Science"=>2, "Decision Sciences"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>19, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2, "Engineering"=>10, "Environmental Science"=>64, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Mathematics"=>1, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>1, "Physics and Astronomy"=>1, "Psychology"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>6}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>1}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>6}, "Decision Sciences"=>{"Decision Sciences"=>1}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>1}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>1}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>6}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>64}, "Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>10}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>19}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>49}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>2}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>1}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>15, "Japan"=>1, "Brazil"=>1, "Mexico"=>2, "Australia"=>1, "France"=>1}, "group_count"=>9}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/733145"], "description"=>"<p>The indicators count projected exceedences each decade of threshold values based on historical extreme water elevation or having significance for sustainability of native species of fish (lethal water temperatures) or habitat restoration through management of floodplain habitats.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["changes", "occurrence", "conditions", "san", "francisco", "estuary-watershed", "a2", "b1"], "article_id"=>403489, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry", "Ecology"], "users"=>["James E. Cloern", "Noah Knowles", "Larry R. Brown", "Daniel Cayan", "Michael D. Dettinger", "Tara L. Morgan", "David H. Schoellhamer", "Mark T. Stacey", "Mick van der Wegen", "R. Wayne Wagner", "Alan D. Jassby"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>12, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Projected_2010_8211_2099_changes_in_the_occurrence_of_extreme_environmental_conditions_in_the_San_Francisco_Estuary_Watershed_system_for_the_A2_left_and_B1_right_scenarios_/403489", "title"=>"Projected 2010–2099 changes in the occurrence of extreme environmental conditions in the San Francisco Estuary-Watershed system for the A2 (left) and B1 (right) scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-09-21 00:58:09"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/732756"], "description"=>"<p>Shaded or hatched areas represent spatial domains of indicators representing areal averages or pertaining to a broad area, and blue dots represent locations of indicators corresponding to specific sites. Key shows geographic descriptions, and legend on lower-right shows corresponding indicators; compare to <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465#pone-0024465-g002\" target=\"_blank\">Figs. 2</a>–<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465#pone-0024465-g003\" target=\"_blank\">3</a> and <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465#pone-0024465-t001\" target=\"_blank\">Table 1</a>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["domains"], "article_id"=>403106, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry", "Ecology"], "users"=>["James E. Cloern", "Noah Knowles", "Larry R. Brown", "Daniel Cayan", "Michael D. Dettinger", "Tara L. Morgan", "David H. Schoellhamer", "Mark T. Stacey", "Mick van der Wegen", "R. Wayne Wagner", "Alan D. Jassby"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Spatial_domains_of_environmental_indicators_/403106", "title"=>"Spatial domains of environmental indicators.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-09-21 00:51:46"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/733064"], "description"=>"<p>Statistically significant (p<0.05) trends are indicated with solid circles; horizontal lines show 95% confidence limits of the trend estimates.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["changes", "median", "a2", "b1"], "article_id"=>403411, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry", "Ecology"], "users"=>["James E. Cloern", "Noah Knowles", "Larry R. Brown", "Daniel Cayan", "Michael D. Dettinger", "Tara L. Morgan", "David H. Schoellhamer", "Mark T. Stacey", "Mick van der Wegen", "R. Wayne Wagner", "Alan D. Jassby"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>10, "page_views"=>34, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Projected_2010_8211_2099_changes_in_nine_environmental_indicators_expressed_as_median_trend_per_decade_for_the_A2_scenario_red_and_B1_scenario_blue_/403411", "title"=>"Projected 2010–2099 changes in nine environmental indicators, expressed as median trend per decade, for the A2 scenario (red) and B1 scenario (blue).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-09-21 00:56:51"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/732935"], "description"=>"<p>The indicators measure changes in regional climate, regional hydrology, and habitat quality in the San Francisco Estuary-Watershed system. The GFDL-A2 and PCM-B1 “historical” data represent simulated realizations of possible climates constrained only by historical GHG forcing, and thus are not expected to track observed historical variability on a year-to-year basis.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["changes", "indicators", "a2", "b1", "scenarios", "compared", "modeled", "observed", "baseline"], "article_id"=>403273, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry", "Ecology"], "users"=>["James E. Cloern", "Noah Knowles", "Larry R. Brown", "Daniel Cayan", "Michael D. Dettinger", "Tara L. Morgan", "David H. Schoellhamer", "Mark T. Stacey", "Mick van der Wegen", "R. Wayne Wagner", "Alan D. Jassby"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>8, "page_views"=>12, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Projected_2010_8211_2099_changes_in_annual_mean_values_of_nine_environmental_indicators_for_the_A2_red_lines_and_B1_blue_lines_scenarios_compared_to_modeled_and_observed_values_during_the_1970_8211_1999_baseline_period_left_panels_/403273", "title"=>"Projected 2010–2099 changes in annual mean values of nine environmental indicators for the A2 (red lines) and B1 (blue lines) scenarios compared to modeled and observed values during the 1970–1999 baseline period (left panels).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-09-21 00:54:33"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/733228"], "description"=>"<p>Environmental indicators analyzed directly (top 10; see <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465#pone-0024465-g002\" target=\"_blank\">Figs. 2</a>–<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465#pone-0024465-g003\" target=\"_blank\">3</a>) or exceedences of thresholds (bottom 4; see <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465#pone-0024465-g004\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 4</a>), with corresponding spatial domains (see <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465#pone-0024465-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 1</a>), units of measurement, and social/ecological significance.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["indicators", "exceedences", "thresholds", "corresponding", "spatial", "domains", "units"], "article_id"=>403570, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry", "Ecology"], "users"=>["James E. Cloern", "Noah Knowles", "Larry R. Brown", "Daniel Cayan", "Michael D. Dettinger", "Tara L. Morgan", "David H. Schoellhamer", "Mark T. Stacey", "Mick van der Wegen", "R. Wayne Wagner", "Alan D. Jassby"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Environmental_indicators_analyzed_directly_top_10_see_Figs_2_3_or_exceedences_of_thresholds_bottom_4_see_Fig_4_with_corresponding_spatial_domains_see_Fig_1_units_of_measurement_and_social_ecological_significance_/403570", "title"=>"Environmental indicators analyzed directly (top 10; see Figs. 2–3) or exceedences of thresholds (bottom 4; see Fig. 4), with corresponding spatial domains (see Fig. 1), units of measurement, and social/ecological significance.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2011-09-21 00:59:30"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/370038", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/370045", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/370061", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/370069", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/370082"], "description"=>"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species.</p> <h3>Methodology/Principal Findings</h3><p>We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations.</p> <h3>Conclusions/Significance</h3><p>Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21<sup>st</sup> century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.</p> </div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["projected", "san", "francisco", "bay-delta-river"], "article_id"=>133119, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry", "Ecology"], "users"=>["James E. Cloern", "Noah Knowles", "Larry R. Brown", "Daniel Cayan", "Michael D. Dettinger", "Tara L. Morgan", "David H. Schoellhamer", "Mark T. Stacey", "Mick van der Wegen", "R. Wayne Wagner", "Alan D. Jassby"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465.s004", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465.s005"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>16, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Projected_Evolution_of_California_s_San_Francisco_Bay_Delta_River_System_in_a_Century_of_Climate_Change/133119", "title"=>"Projected Evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2011-09-21 00:51:59"}

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Relative Metric

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