Spatiotemporal Variation in Avian Migration Phenology: Citizen Science Reveals Effects of Climate Change
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{"title"=>"Spatiotemporal variation in avian migration phenology: Citizen science reveals effects of climate change", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Allen H.", "last_name"=>"Hurlbert", "scopus_author_id"=>"7003960073"}, {"first_name"=>"Zhongfei", "last_name"=>"Liang", "scopus_author_id"=>"55027858000"}], "year"=>2012, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"pui"=>"364330091", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84857486593", "sgr"=>"84857486593", "pmid"=>"22384050", "issn"=>"19326203", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0031662", "isbn"=>"-"}, "id"=>"9c438dd3-0839-3c57-8346-358b5aad9553", "abstract"=>"A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3-6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/spatiotemporal-variation-avian-migration-phenology-citizen-science-reveals-effects-climate-change-2", "reader_count"=>131, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>9, "Librarian"=>1, "Researcher"=>39, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>4, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>27, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Other"=>9, "Student > Master"=>23, "Student > Bachelor"=>10, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>5, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>9, "Librarian"=>1, "Researcher"=>39, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>4, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>27, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Other"=>9, "Student > Master"=>23, "Student > Bachelor"=>10, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>5, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Engineering"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>39, "Materials Science"=>1, "Mathematics"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>69, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>1, "Psychology"=>2, "Social Sciences"=>7, "Computer Science"=>5, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>3, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Materials Science"=>{"Materials Science"=>1}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>1}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>7}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>2}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>3}, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>{"Immunology and Microbiology"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>69}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>5}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>1}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>39}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Canada"=>2, "United States"=>8, "Brazil"=>1, "Italy"=>1, "Mexico"=>2, "South Africa"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>1, "Switzerland"=>1, "Germany"=>1}, "group_count"=>7}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/677351"], "description"=>"<p>Seasonal variation in average monthly temperatures from January to June in Atlanta (solid) and Montreal (dashed) based on long term averages from weather.com (black) and under a seasonally uniform warming scenario of +2°C (gray). Dotted lines indicate the predicted arrival dates of a hypothetical species that based its arrival on an average temperature of 19°C under each of the four scenarios. The same degree of warming would result in a greater shift in arrival date in Atlanta.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["seasonality"], "article_id"=>347840, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Allen H. Hurlbert", "Zhongfei Liang"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0031662.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_A_model_of_increased_temperature_sensitivity_in_low_seasonality_environments_/347840", "title"=>"A model of increased temperature sensitivity in low seasonality environments.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-02-22 02:10:40"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/676814"], "description"=>"<p>Proportion of checklist locations at which the House Wren (<i>Troglodytes aedon</i>) was observed from Julian days 80–180 (roughly 10 March to 30 June) within a 2-degree lat-long block centered at 41°N and 73°W in 2008 and 2009. Heavy line is the best fitting logistic curve to the data, and the vertical dotted line indicates the inflection point of that curve which is used as an estimate of mean arrival date. The shaded area indicates the region in which occupancy is between 2.5% and 97.5% of the asymptotic value, and the width of this area was used as a confidence interval on the arrival date estimate for weighting purposes.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["temporal", "occupancy"], "article_id"=>347309, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Allen H. Hurlbert", "Zhongfei Liang"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0031662.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Estimating_arrival_date_from_temporal_occupancy_patterns_/347309", "title"=>"Estimating arrival date from temporal occupancy patterns.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-02-22 02:01:49"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/345987", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/346044"], "description"=>"<div><p>A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3–6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing.</p> </div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["spatiotemporal", "avian", "reveals", "effects"], "article_id"=>128386, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Allen H. Hurlbert", "Zhongfei Liang"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0031662.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0031662.s002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>17, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Spatiotemporal_Variation_in_Avian_Migration_Phenology_Citizen_Science_Reveals_Effects_of_Climate_Change/128386", "title"=>"Spatiotemporal Variation in Avian Migration Phenology: Citizen Science Reveals Effects of Climate Change", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2012-02-22 02:19:46"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/676885"], "description"=>"<p>Spring arrival dates estimated from citizen science data collection efforts for the red-eyed vireo (<i>Vireo olivaceus</i>) across 2° lat-long-blocks in eastern North America from 2002–2010.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["dates", "red-eyed"], "article_id"=>347375, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Allen H. Hurlbert", "Zhongfei Liang"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0031662.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Spring_arrival_dates_for_the_red_eyed_vireo_/347375", "title"=>"Spring arrival dates for the red-eyed vireo.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-02-22 02:02:55"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/677432"], "description"=>"1<p>Technically, all of these species may be considered Neotropical migrants, but here we define those that winter at least partially in the U.S. as short distance migrants.</p>2<p>A - aerial insectivore, F - foliage gleaner, G - ground gleaner.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["foraging", "lat-long", "blocks", "median"], "article_id"=>347920, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Allen H. Hurlbert", "Zhongfei Liang"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0031662.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_The_species_analyzed_in_this_study_along_with_species_abbreviations_migration_class_foraging_guild_number_of_lat_long_blocks_analysed_and_the_median_slope_of_mean_arrival_date_MAD_as_a_function_of_minimum_spring_temperature_over_all_lat_long_blocks_/347920", "title"=>"The species analyzed in this study, along with species abbreviations, migration class, foraging guild, number of lat-long blocks analysed, and the median slope of mean arrival date (MAD) as a function of minimum spring temperature over all lat-long blocks.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2012-02-22 02:12:00"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/677275"], "description"=>"<p>Mean shift in arrival date per °C change in minimum spring temperature for all grid cells with at least two species trends.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["community-level", "phenological"], "article_id"=>347772, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Allen H. Hurlbert", "Zhongfei Liang"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0031662.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Geographical_variation_in_the_community_level_phenological_response_/347772", "title"=>"Geographical variation in the community-level phenological response.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-02-22 02:09:32"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/677144"], "description"=>"<p>Geographic variation in the mean shift in arrival date per °C change in minimum spring temperature for four bird species (right-hand column). The left-hand column depicts changes in both minimum spring temperature (solid line) and arrival date (dashed line) through time for one example region (indicated by arrow) for each species. Note that the arrival date axis increases towards the bottom. Photo credits: red-eyed vireo, Dario Sanches; scarlet tanager, Steve Maslowski; great-crested flycatcher, Matt Ward; indigo bunting, Kevin Bolton.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["phenological", "trajectories"], "article_id"=>347638, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Allen H. Hurlbert", "Zhongfei Liang"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0031662.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Geographic_variation_in_phenological_response_and_example_trajectories_of_temperature_and_arrival_date_/347638", "title"=>"Geographic variation in phenological response and example trajectories of temperature and arrival date.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-02-22 02:07:18"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/676979"], "description"=>"<p>(A) Mean arrival date (averaged over both year and longitude) as a function of latitude for 18 bird species, depicting the rate at which various species advance northward during migration. (B) Boxplots showing the variation in the slope of the trend in arrival date with minimum spring temperature for each species, with more negative values reflecting earlier arrival. +, p<0.10; *, p<0.05; **, p<0.01. (C) Relationship between migration time (from (A)) and the median phenological response of arrival date to temperature. (D) Residuals of the phenological response to temperature after controlling for migration time and migration distance as a function of niche breadth. Species codes are given in <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0031662#pone-0031662-t001\" target=\"_blank\">Table 1</a>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["interspecific", "phenological"], "article_id"=>347475, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Allen H. Hurlbert", "Zhongfei Liang"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0031662.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Explaining_interspecific_variation_in_phenological_response_/347475", "title"=>"Explaining interspecific variation in phenological response.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-02-22 02:04:35"}
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