Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States
Publication Date
February 23, 2010
Journal
PLOS Biology
Authors
Jeffrey Shaman, Virginia E. Pitzer, Cécile Viboud, Bryan T. Grenfell, et al
Volume
8
Issue
2
Pages
e1000316
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pbio.1000316
PubMed
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20186267
PubMed Central
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2826374
Europe PMC
http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/20186267
Web of Science
000275257300005
Scopus
77649141786
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/absolute-humidity-seasonal-onset-influenza-continental-united-states
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Mendeley | Further Information

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Scopus | Further Information

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  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/861794"], "description"=>"<p>Top, plots of <i>AH′</i> averaged for the site-winters with an influenza outbreak showing the 6 wk prior to and 4 wk following outbreak onset. The conditions at each of the site-winters are defined based on the onset date for that site-winter. The onset dates are defined as the date at which wintertime observed excess P&I mortality had been at or above a prescribed threshold level for two continuous weeks (e.g., 0.01 deaths/100,000 people/day). Not every site-winter produced an outbreak as defined by a particular onset threshold. Depending on the threshold level used, 1,181–1,420 epidemics were identified among 1,470 possible (30 winters each for the 48 contiguous states plus the District of Columbia). Each solid line is the averaged <i>AH′</i> associated with influenza onset as defined by a different threshold mortality rate. The dashed line shows <i>AH′</i> = 0. Bottom, plot of <i>R</i><sub>0</sub>(<i>t</i>) anomalies using the above <i>AH′</i> values. The <i>R</i><sub>0</sub>(<i>t</i>) anomalies are calculated using the best combined-fit estimates of <i>R</i><sub>0max</sub> and <i>R</i><sub>0min</sub> (<a href=\"http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316#pbio-1000316-t001\" target=\"_blank\">Table 1</a>). The dashed line shows <i>R</i><sub>0</sub>(<i>t</i>)<b>′</b> = 0.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["observed", "onset"], "article_id"=>532256, "categories"=>["Computational Biology", "Cancer", "Neuroscience"], "users"=>["Jeffrey Shaman", "Virginia E. Pitzer", "Cécile Viboud", "Bryan T. Grenfell", "Marc Lipsitch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_AH_8242_associated_with_the_observed_onset_of_epidemic_influenza_/532256", "title"=>"<i>AH′</i> associated with the observed onset of epidemic influenza.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2010-02-23 00:37:36"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/862081"], "description"=>"<p>Top, plots of average <i>AH′</i> associated with wintertime influenza onset for the ten best-fit SIRS model simulations at the five state sites (Arizona, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Washington). The onset dates are defined as the date on which wintertime infection rates have been at or above a prescribed level for two continuous weeks (e.g., 50 infections/100,000 people/day). Each solid line is the averaged <i>AH′</i> associated with influenza onset as defined by a different threshold infection rate. The dashed line shows <i>AH′</i> = 0. Bottom, plots of <i>R</i><sub>0</sub>(<i>t</i>) anomalies using the <i>AH′</i> values. The <i>R</i><sub>0</sub>(<i>t</i>) anomalies are calculated using the parameters <i>R</i><sub>0max</sub> and <i>R</i><sub>0min</sub> from each best-fit simulation (<a href=\"http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316#pbio.1000316.s018\" target=\"_blank\">Table S3</a>). The dashed line shows <i>R</i><sub>0</sub>(<i>t</i>)<b>′</b> = 0.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["sirs", "simulated", "influenza"], "article_id"=>532544, "categories"=>["Computational Biology", "Cancer", "Neuroscience"], "users"=>["Jeffrey Shaman", "Virginia E. Pitzer", "Cécile Viboud", "Bryan T. Grenfell", "Marc Lipsitch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_AH_8242_associated_with_SIRS_simulated_influenza_onset_/532544", "title"=>"<i>AH′</i> associated with SIRS simulated influenza onset.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2010-02-23 00:42:24"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428053", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428085", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428116", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428152", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428173", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428197", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428243", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428282", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428323", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428381", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428431", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428468", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428483", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428508", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428523", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428533", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428554", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428585", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428626", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428658", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/428701"], "description"=>"<div><p>Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["humidity", "seasonal", "onset", "influenza", "continental", "united", "states"], "article_id"=>144515, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Cancer", "Neuroscience"], "users"=>["Jeffrey Shaman", "Virginia E. Pitzer", "Cécile Viboud", "Bryan T. Grenfell", "Marc Lipsitch"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s004", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s005", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s006", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s007", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s008", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s009", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s010", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s011", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s012", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s013", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s014", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s015", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s016", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s017", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s018", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s019", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s020", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.s021"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>46, "page_views"=>54, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Absolute_Humidity_and_the_Seasonal_Onset_of_Influenza_in_the_Continental_United_States/144515", "title"=>"Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2010-02-23 01:15:15"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/862252"], "description"=>"<p>Five thousand simulations were performed at each site with the parameters <i>R</i><sub>0max</sub>, <i>R</i><sub>0min</sub>, <i>D</i>, and <i>L</i> randomly chosen from within specified ranges. Best-fit simulations were selected for the five sites in aggregate based on RMS error after scaling the 31-y mean daily infection number to the 31-y mean observed daily excess P&I mortality rate at each site. The scaling factor itself, representing mortality per infection, is also shown.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["combinations", "best-fit", "simulations", "illinois", "washington"], "article_id"=>532704, "categories"=>["Computational Biology", "Cancer", "Neuroscience"], "users"=>["Jeffrey Shaman", "Virginia E. Pitzer", "Cécile Viboud", "Bryan T. Grenfell", "Marc Lipsitch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Parameter_combinations_for_the_ten_best_fit_simulations_at_the_Arizona_Florida_Illinois_New_York_and_Washington_state_sites_/532704", "title"=>"Parameter combinations for the ten best-fit simulations at the Arizona, Florida, Illinois New York, and Washington state sites.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2010-02-23 00:45:04"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/862208"], "description"=>"a<p>Low workflow states.</p><p>The ten best common-fit parameter combinations (<a href=\"http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316#pbio-1000316-t002\" target=\"_blank\">Table 2</a>) were used for these hindcast projections. Results are ordered based on best average correlation (among the ten simulations for each state). The ten states with lowest 1972–2002 population density are shown in bold.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["coefficients", "contiguous", "columbia", "sirs-simulated", "influenza", "incidence", "observed", "excess"], "article_id"=>532656, "categories"=>["Computational Biology", "Cancer", "Neuroscience"], "users"=>["Jeffrey Shaman", "Virginia E. Pitzer", "Cécile Viboud", "Bryan T. Grenfell", "Marc Lipsitch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.t003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Correlation_coefficients_for_the_contiguous_US_and_District_of_Columbia_of_SIRS_simulated_1972_8211_2002_influenza_incidence_with_1972_8211_2002_observed_excess_P_amp_I_mortality_/532656", "title"=>"Correlation coefficients for the contiguous US and District of Columbia of SIRS-simulated 1972–2002 influenza incidence with 1972–2002 observed excess P&I mortality.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2010-02-23 00:44:16"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/862288"], "description"=>"<p>Four different onset thresholds are shown. Average values for each variable are for the period 4 to 0 wk prior to onset. Significance estimates based on bootstrapping are also shown in parentheses.</p><p>NS = not significant.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["anomalies", "variables", "wintertime", "influenza", "onset", "contiguous"], "article_id"=>532739, "categories"=>["Computational Biology", "Cancer", "Neuroscience"], "users"=>["Jeffrey Shaman", "Virginia E. Pitzer", "Cécile Viboud", "Bryan T. Grenfell", "Marc Lipsitch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Association_of_daily_anomalies_in_various_environmental_variables_with_wintertime_influenza_onset_during_1972_8211_2002_for_the_contiguous_US_/532739", "title"=>"Association of daily anomalies in various environmental variables with wintertime influenza onset during 1972–2002 for the contiguous US.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2010-02-23 00:45:39"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/861657"], "description"=>"<p>(A) Log-linear regression of guinea pig airborne influenza virus transmission data <a href=\"http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316#pbio.1000316-Lowen1\" target=\"_blank\">[14]</a>,<a href=\"http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316#pbio.1000316-Lowen2\" target=\"_blank\">[15]</a> on specific humidity (a measure of AH); (B) log-linear regression of 1-h influenza virus survival data <a href=\"http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316#pbio.1000316-Harper1\" target=\"_blank\">[28]</a> on specific humidity; (C) functional relationship between <i>R</i><sub>0</sub>(<i>t</i>) and <i>q</i>(<i>t</i>) per Equation 4; (D) 1972–2002 daily climatology of 2-m above-ground NCEP-NCAR reanalysis specific humidity <a href=\"http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316#pbio.1000316-Kalnay1\" target=\"_blank\">[23]</a> for Arizona, Florida, Illinois, New York state, and Washington state; (E) 1972–2002 average daily values of <i>R</i><sub>0</sub>(<i>t</i>) derived from the specific humidity climatology using the best-fit parameter combination from SIRS simulations (<i>R</i><sub>0max</sub> = 3.52; <i>R</i><sub>0min</sub> = 1.12) and the functional form (<a href=\"http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316#pbio-1000316-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Figure 1C</a> and Equation 4); (F) average <i>R</i><sub>E</sub>(<i>t</i>) for all wintertime outbreaks in the ten best-fit simulations at each state shown for 100 d prior to through 150 d post outbreak onset (minimum 400 infections/day during 2 wk prior; minimum 5,000 infections/day at least 1 d during subsequent 30 d). <a href=\"http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316#pbio-1000316-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Figure 1A and 1B</a> are redrawn from Shaman and Kohn <a href=\"http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316#pbio.1000316-Shaman1\" target=\"_blank\">[11]</a> using specific humidity as the measure of AH.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["sirs"], "article_id"=>532121, "categories"=>["Computational Biology", "Cancer", "Neuroscience"], "users"=>["Jeffrey Shaman", "Virginia E. Pitzer", "Cécile Viboud", "Bryan T. Grenfell", "Marc Lipsitch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Analyses_of_laboratory_data_environmental_data_and_SIRS_model_simulations_/532121", "title"=>"Analyses of laboratory data, environmental data, and SIRS model simulations.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2010-02-23 00:35:21"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/861927"], "description"=>"<p>Here, best-fit simulations were selected individually for each state based on RMS error after scaling the 31-y mean daily infection number to the 31-y mean observed daily excess P&I mortality rate. Thick blue line shows the best-fit simulation; thinner green lines show the next nine best simulations.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["cycles", "best-fit", "sirs", "simulations"], "article_id"=>532383, "categories"=>["Computational Biology", "Cancer", "Neuroscience"], "users"=>["Jeffrey Shaman", "Virginia E. Pitzer", "Cécile Viboud", "Bryan T. Grenfell", "Marc Lipsitch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Mean_annual_cycles_for_the_best_fit_SIRS_model_simulations_at_the_five_state_sites_/532383", "title"=>"Mean annual cycles for the best-fit SIRS model simulations at the five state sites.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2010-02-23 00:39:43"}

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Relative Metric

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