Risk Maps for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry
Publication Date
April 20, 2007
Journal
PLOS Computational Biology
Authors
Gert Jan Boender, Thomas J Hagenaars, Annemarie Bouma, Gonnie Nodelijk, et al
Volume
3
Issue
4
Pages
e71
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.0030071
PubMed
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17447838
PubMed Central
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1853123
Europe PMC
http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/17447838
Web of Science
000246191300010
Scopus
34247560774
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/risk-maps-spread-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-poultry
Events
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CiteULike | Further Information

Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"Risk maps for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Gert Jan", "last_name"=>"Boender", "scopus_author_id"=>"6701824467"}, {"first_name"=>"Thomas J.", "last_name"=>"Hagenaars", "scopus_author_id"=>"24334821600"}, {"first_name"=>"Annemarie", "last_name"=>"Bouma", "scopus_author_id"=>"7005147111"}, {"first_name"=>"Gonnie", "last_name"=>"Nodelijk", "scopus_author_id"=>"6602294431"}, {"first_name"=>"Armin R W", "last_name"=>"Elbers", "scopus_author_id"=>"34770615400"}, {"first_name"=>"Mart C M", "last_name"=>"De Jong", "scopus_author_id"=>"35616847700"}, {"first_name"=>"Michiel", "last_name"=>"Van Boven", "scopus_author_id"=>"7004419934"}], "year"=>2007, "source"=>"PLoS Computational Biology", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"1553734X", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-34247560774", "sgr"=>"34247560774", "pui"=>"46683452", "isbn"=>"1553-7358 (Electronic)", "pmid"=>"17447838", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071"}, "id"=>"b18f156c-7b5d-37f8-bc48-a881c1064f8d", "abstract"=>"Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/risk-maps-spread-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-poultry", "reader_count"=>109, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>8, "Librarian"=>2, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Researcher"=>33, "Student > Ph. D. 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Student"=>25, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Other"=>7, "Student > Master"=>16, "Student > Bachelor"=>2, "Lecturer"=>1, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>7}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>6, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>52, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>9, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>3, "Computer Science"=>3, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>3, "Environmental Science"=>3, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Mathematics"=>14, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>11, "Physics and Astronomy"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>1, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>1, "Linguistics"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>11}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>1}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>1}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>14}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>6}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>3}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>3}, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>{"Immunology and Microbiology"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>52}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>3}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>3}, "Linguistics"=>{"Linguistics"=>1}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>{"Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>9}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Reunion"=>1, "United States"=>3, "Sri Lanka"=>1, "Philippines"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>4, "Kenya"=>1, "Spain"=>1, "Vietnam"=>2, "Belgium"=>1, "Italy"=>1, "South Africa"=>1, "Australia"=>1, "France"=>1, "Chile"=>1}, "group_count"=>8}

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Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/467277"], "description"=>"<div><p>Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["maps", "pathogenic", "avian", "influenza", "poultry"], "article_id"=>152128, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Cancer", "Biotechnology"], "users"=>["Gert Jan Boender", "Thomas J Hagenaars", "Annemarie Bouma", "Gonnie Nodelijk", "Armin R. W Elbers", "Mart C. M de Jong", "Michiel van Boven"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>15, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Risk_Maps_for_the_Spread_of_Highly_Pathogenic_Avian_Influenza_in_Poultry/152128", "title"=>"Risk Maps for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2007-04-20 00:35:28"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/950938"], "description"=>"<p>See <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071#pcbi-0030071-t001\" target=\"_blank\">Table 1</a> for parameter estimates. For each farm, an individual reproduction number <i>R<sub>i</sub></i> is calculated on the basis of <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071#pcbi-0030071-e005\" target=\"_blank\">Equation 5</a>. Infected farms with <i>R<sub>i</sub></i> < 1 infect, on average, less than one susceptible farm and pose no risk for epidemic spread (yellow dots). Infected farms with <i>R<sub>i</sub></i> > 1 are expected to infect more than one susceptible farm in the early stage of an epidemic and thus constitute a risk of epidemic spread (red dots). Pink dots represent farms with <i>R<sub>i</sub></i> < 1 for the maximum likelihood estimate of the transmission kernel, but with <i>R<sub>i</sub></i> > 1 for the upper boundary of the 95% kernel confidence area (<a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071#pcbi-0030071-g003\" target=\"_blank\">Figure 3</a>). Note that most of the farms that were infected during the epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003 (<a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071#pcbi-0030071-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Figure 1</a>) are classified as high-risk farms.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["areas", "avian", "influenza", "kernel"], "article_id"=>621250, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Gert Jan Boender", "Thomas J Hagenaars", "Annemarie Bouma", "Gonnie Nodelijk", "Armin R. W Elbers", "Mart C. M de Jong", "Michiel van Boven"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_High_Risk_Areas_for_Epidemic_Spread_of_Avian_Influenza_Virus_Based_on_the_Transmission_Kernel_of_Figure_3_/621250", "title"=>"High-Risk Areas for Epidemic Spread of Avian Influenza Virus Based on the Transmission Kernel of Figure 3", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2007-04-20 00:20:50"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/951050"], "description"=>"<div><p>(A) Results for the default scenario (no culling).</p><p>(B) Results for a scenario with immediate culling of all farms within a range of 1 km around an infected farm.</p><p>(C,D) Culling is carried out in a range of 3 km and 5 km around infected farms, respectively. Farms in yellow pose no risk of epidemic spread for the chosen control strategy, while farms in red constitute a risk of epidemic spread even with the control strategy in place.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["areas", "culling", "strategies", "high-risk"], "article_id"=>621371, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Gert Jan Boender", "Thomas J Hagenaars", "Annemarie Bouma", "Gonnie Nodelijk", "Armin R. W Elbers", "Mart C. M de Jong", "Michiel van Boven"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>9, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_High_Risk_Areas_for_Epidemic_Spread_for_Various_Local_Culling_Strategies_in_the_Central_High_Risk_Area_of_The_Netherlands_/621371", "title"=>"High-Risk Areas for Epidemic Spread for Various Local Culling Strategies in the Central High-Risk Area of The Netherlands", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2007-04-20 00:22:51"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/950861"], "description"=>"<p>The 95% confidence areas of the transmission kernel are represented by the shaded area.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["kernel", "interfarm", "parameter", "estimates"], "article_id"=>621178, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Gert Jan Boender", "Thomas J Hagenaars", "Annemarie Bouma", "Gonnie Nodelijk", "Armin R. W Elbers", "Mart C. M de Jong", "Michiel van Boven"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_The_Transmission_Kernel_as_a_Function_of_Interfarm_Distance_for_the_Parameter_Estimates_of_Table_1_/621178", "title"=>"The Transmission Kernel as a Function of Interfarm Distance for the Parameter Estimates of Table 1", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2007-04-20 00:19:38"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/950781"], "description"=>"<div><p>(A) The frequency distribution of the distances of potential infection events. Notice that the majority of potential infections occur within a radius of 25 km around an infected farm.</p><p>(B) The proportion of farms infected within different distance categories from a potential source farm, averaged over all possible source farms (i.e., over all farms confirmed positive during the 2003 epidemic).</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Infectious diseases", "mathematics", "public health and epidemiology"], "article_id"=>621099, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Gert Jan Boender", "Thomas J Hagenaars", "Annemarie Bouma", "Gonnie Nodelijk", "Armin R. W Elbers", "Mart C. M de Jong", "Michiel van Boven"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Distance_Distribution_of_Potential_Transmission_Events_/621099", "title"=>"Distance Distribution of Potential Transmission Events", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2007-04-20 00:18:19"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/950692"], "description"=>"<p>Farms that were infected during the 2003 epidemic of avian influenza are represented by black dots, and farms that were not infected are represented by yellow dots.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["netherlands", "locations", "poultry"], "article_id"=>621006, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Gert Jan Boender", "Thomas J Hagenaars", "Annemarie Bouma", "Gonnie Nodelijk", "Armin R. W Elbers", "Mart C. M de Jong", "Michiel van Boven"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Map_of_The_Netherlands_Indicating_the_Physical_Locations_of_All_5_360_Commercial_Poultry_Farms_/621006", "title"=>"Map of The Netherlands Indicating the Physical Locations of All 5,360 Commercial Poultry Farms", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2007-04-20 00:16:46"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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Relative Metric

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