Landscape Epidemiology and Control of Pathogens with Cryptic and Long-Distance Dispersal: Sudden Oak Death in Northern Californian Forests
Publication Date
January 05, 2012
Journal
PLOS Computational Biology
Authors
João A. N. Filipe, Richard C. Cobb, Ross K. Meentemeyer, Christopher A. Lee, et al
Volume
8
Issue
1
Pages
e1002328
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.1002328
PubMed
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22241973
PubMed Central
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3252276
Europe PMC
http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/22241973
Web of Science
000300218100010
Scopus
84857463893
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/landscape-epidemiology-control-pathogens-cryptic-longdistance-dispersal-sudden-oak-death-northern-ca
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Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"Landscape epidemiology and control of pathogens with cryptic and long-distance dispersal: Sudden oak death in northern californian forests", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"João A N", "last_name"=>"Filipe", "scopus_author_id"=>"7003473580"}, {"first_name"=>"Richard C.", "last_name"=>"Cobb", "scopus_author_id"=>"8644781400"}, {"first_name"=>"Ross K.", "last_name"=>"Meentemeyer", "scopus_author_id"=>"6603167358"}, {"first_name"=>"Christopher A.", "last_name"=>"Lee", "scopus_author_id"=>"56100953200"}, {"first_name"=>"Yana S.", "last_name"=>"Valachovic", "scopus_author_id"=>"6506049285"}, {"first_name"=>"Alex R.", "last_name"=>"Cook", "scopus_author_id"=>"23392022000"}, {"first_name"=>"David M.", "last_name"=>"Rizzo", "scopus_author_id"=>"7005922431"}, {"first_name"=>"Christopher A.", "last_name"=>"Gilligan", "scopus_author_id"=>"7006473085"}], "year"=>2012, "source"=>"PLoS Computational Biology", "identifiers"=>{"pmid"=>"22241973", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328", "sgr"=>"84857463893", "isbn"=>"1553-7358", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84857463893", "issn"=>"1553734X", "pui"=>"364329947"}, "id"=>"c9363e6a-0a34-3c0e-84df-65e72268fad1", "abstract"=>"Exotic pathogens and pests threaten ecosystem service, biodiversity, and crop security globally. If an invasive agent can disperse asymptomatically over long distances, multiple spatial and temporal scales interplay, making identification of effective strategies to regulate, monitor, and control disease extremely difficult. The management of outbreaks is also challenged by limited data on the actual area infested and the dynamics of spatial spread, due to financial, technological, or social constraints. We examine principles of landscape epidemiology important in designing policy to prevent or slow invasion by such organisms, and use Phytophthora ramorum, the cause of sudden oak death, to illustrate how shortfalls in their understanding can render management applications inappropriate. This pathogen has invaded forests in coastal California, USA, and an isolated but fast-growing epidemic focus in northern California (Humboldt County) has the potential for extensive spread. The risk of spread is enhanced by the pathogen's generalist nature and survival. Additionally, the extent of cryptic infection is unknown due to limited surveying resources and access to private land. Here, we use an epidemiological model for transmission in heterogeneous landscapes and Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo inference to estimate dispersal and life-cycle parameters of P. ramorum and forecast the distribution of infection and speed of the epidemic front in Humboldt County. We assess the viability of management options for containing the pathogen's northern spread and local impacts. Implementing a stand-alone host-free \"barrier\" had limited efficacy due to long-distance dispersal, but combining curative with preventive treatments ahead of the front reduced local damage and contained spread. While the large size of this focus makes effective control expensive, early synchronous treatment in newly-identified disease foci should be more cost-effective. We show how the successful management of forest ecosystems depends on estimating the spatial scales of invasion and treatment of pathogens and pests with cryptic long-distance dispersal.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/landscape-epidemiology-control-pathogens-cryptic-longdistance-dispersal-sudden-oak-death-northern-ca", "reader_count"=>97, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Researcher"=>33, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>6, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>24, "Student > Master"=>13, "Other"=>4, "Student > Bachelor"=>6, "Lecturer"=>1, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>3}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Researcher"=>33, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>6, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>24, "Student > Master"=>13, "Other"=>4, "Student > Bachelor"=>6, "Lecturer"=>1, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>3}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>6, "Environmental Science"=>20, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>1, "Mathematics"=>3, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>57, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>2, "Philosophy"=>1, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>3, "Engineering"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>2}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>3}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>57}, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>{"Nursing and Health Professions"=>1}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>1}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>3}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>6}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>20}, "Philosophy"=>{"Philosophy"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Canada"=>2, "United States"=>8, "United Kingdom"=>3, "France"=>1}, "group_count"=>8}

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Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/695197"], "description"=>"<p>Risk maps as in <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g004\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 4</a>, but control areas are 4 km bigger (C–E) and the “barrier” (F) is twice as thick and 3 km further north. <b>A–B</b>) 2010 and 2017: natural spread. <b>C–F</b>) 2017: wider control has a mixed outcome. <b>C</b>) Removal at the origin – still covers an area smaller than the initial cryptic epidemic and has limited impact, as in <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g004\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 4C</a>. <b>D</b>) Removal at and ahead of the origin – covers and extends beyond the infected area and delays epidemic progress significantly (speed ∼2 km/year, <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g003\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 3C</a>); cryptic infection is visible (top edge of removal area) where it is more intense because it is too recent to be detectable and removed. <b>E</b>) Mixed strategy – covers and extends beyond the infected area and delays epidemic progress significantly (speed ∼1 km/year, <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g003\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 3B</a>); protection is more effective (and less host-damaging) than with extended removal (D), although allowing for higher inoculum levels, and contains spread to the Target area, unlike the smaller-scale control (<a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g004\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 4E</a>). As in <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g004\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 4</a>, inoculum in C–E cannot be brought down further due to the delay in detecting cryptic infection and in subsequent removal (c.f. <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 1D</a>). <b>F</b>) Larger, 10 km thick “host-free barrier”, 38 km from Redway – is overcome through build-up of inoculum and long-distance dispersal, but delays invasion of the Target area by ∼1 year (c.f. <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 1E</a>).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["treatments", "initiated", "areas", "cryptic"], "article_id"=>365609, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Ecology", "Biotechnology", "Plant Biology"], "users"=>["João A. N. Filipe", "Richard C. Cobb", "Ross K. Meentemeyer", "Christopher A. Lee", "Yana S. Valachovic", "Alex R. Cook", "David M. Rizzo", "Christopher A. Gilligan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Alternative_treatments_initiated_in_2010_in_areas_larger_than_the_cryptic_epidemic_/365609", "title"=>"Alternative treatments initiated in 2010 in areas larger than the cryptic epidemic.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-01-05 01:33:29"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/354771"], "description"=>"<div><p>Exotic pathogens and pests threaten ecosystem service, biodiversity, and crop security globally. If an invasive agent can disperse asymptomatically over long distances, multiple spatial and temporal scales interplay, making identification of effective strategies to regulate, monitor, and control disease extremely difficult. The management of outbreaks is also challenged by limited data on the actual area infested and the dynamics of spatial spread, due to financial, technological, or social constraints. We examine principles of landscape epidemiology important in designing policy to prevent or slow invasion by such organisms, and use <em>Phytophthora ramorum</em>, the cause of sudden oak death, to illustrate how shortfalls in their understanding can render management applications inappropriate. This pathogen has invaded forests in coastal California, USA, and an isolated but fast-growing epidemic focus in northern California (Humboldt County) has the potential for extensive spread. The risk of spread is enhanced by the pathogen's generalist nature and survival. Additionally, the extent of cryptic infection is unknown due to limited surveying resources and access to private land. Here, we use an epidemiological model for transmission in heterogeneous landscapes and Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo inference to estimate dispersal and life-cycle parameters of <em>P. ramorum</em> and forecast the distribution of infection and speed of the epidemic front in Humboldt County. We assess the viability of management options for containing the pathogen's northern spread and local impacts. Implementing a stand-alone host-free “barrier” had limited efficacy due to long-distance dispersal, but combining curative with preventive treatments ahead of the front reduced local damage and contained spread. While the large size of this focus makes effective control expensive, early synchronous treatment in newly-identified disease foci should be more cost-effective. We show how the successful management of forest ecosystems depends on estimating the spatial scales of invasion and treatment of pathogens and pests with cryptic long-distance dispersal.</p> </div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["epidemiology", "pathogens", "cryptic", "long-distance", "californian", "forests"], "article_id"=>130106, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Ecology", "Biotechnology", "Cell Biology"], "users"=>["João A. N. Filipe", "Richard C. Cobb", "Ross K. Meentemeyer", "Christopher A. Lee", "Yana S. Valachovic", "Alex R. Cook", "David M. Rizzo", "Christopher A. Gilligan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Landscape_Epidemiology_and_Control_of_Pathogens_with_Cryptic_and_Long_Distance_Dispersal_Sudden_Oak_Death_in_Northern_Californian_Forests/130106", "title"=>"Landscape Epidemiology and Control of Pathogens with Cryptic and Long-Distance Dispersal: Sudden Oak Death in Northern Californian Forests", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2012-01-05 00:01:46"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/695327"], "description"=>"<p>Risk maps as in <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g004\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 4</a>, but control starts 5 years earlier when the cryptic epidemic is much smaller. <b>A–B</b>) 2005 and 2017: natural spread. <b>C</b>)<b>–F</b>) 2017: earlier control has the greatest impact. <b>C</b>) Removal at the origin – the front is delayed more and local inoculum is reduced more than with control initiated later (<a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g004\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 4C</a>), but it is still not eliminated due to cryptic infection and re-infection (c.f. <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 1D</a>). Removal initially covers a larger area than the cryptic epidemic but once the front passes the edge of this area it spreads nearly as fast as without control, limiting the overall delay to ∼1 year. <b>D</b>) Removal ahead of the origin – as in C, the front is delayed more and local inoculum reduced more than with control initiated later (<a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g004\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 4C</a>) but it is still not eliminated. Removal reduces the mass of inoculum nearer the Target area and delays the front slightly more than removal at the origin (C). Cryptic infection is visible in the top edge of the removal area. <b>E</b>) Mixed strategy – covers a larger area than the cryptic epidemic and protection is applied before there is any infection in the protected area delaying the front much more than control initiated in 2010 (<a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g004\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 4E</a>). <b>F</b>) “Host-free barrier” – identical effect to <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g004\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 4F</a> because the barrier is well ahead of the front both in 2005 and in 2010 (c.f. <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g004\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 1E</a>).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["treatments", "initiated", "areas", "cryptic"], "article_id"=>365734, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Ecology", "Biotechnology", "Plant Biology"], "users"=>["João A. N. Filipe", "Richard C. Cobb", "Ross K. Meentemeyer", "Christopher A. Lee", "Yana S. Valachovic", "Alex R. Cook", "David M. Rizzo", "Christopher A. Gilligan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Alternative_treatments_initiated_in_2005_in_areas_larger_than_the_cryptic_epidemic_/365734", "title"=>"Alternative treatments initiated in 2005 in areas larger than the cryptic epidemic.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-01-05 01:35:34"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/694808"], "description"=>"<p><b>A</b>) Humboldt county is shown in reference to sudden oak death distribution in costal California in 2008. <b>B</b>) Distribution of overstory tree mortality between 2004 and 2009 determined from annual aerial surveys; these data were used to determine dispersal and other epidemiological parameters of the causative agent <i>Phytophthora ramorum</i>. <b>C</b>) Host index within the 15-by-84 km study area. Scale: <0.01 (purple), 0.4 (blue), 0.6 (green), 0.8 (yellow), 1.0 (red); darker areas are dominated by non-sporulating or non-susceptible hosts while yellow and red areas are primarily dominated by tanoak (<i>Lithocarpus densiflorus</i>). <b>D</b>) Disease control areas and objectives, and approximate location of the proposed barrier treatments.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["humboldt"], "article_id"=>365231, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Ecology", "Biotechnology", "Plant Biology"], "users"=>["João A. N. Filipe", "Richard C. Cobb", "Ross K. Meentemeyer", "Christopher A. Lee", "Yana S. Valachovic", "Alex R. Cook", "David M. Rizzo", "Christopher A. Gilligan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Study_area_host_and_mortality_distribution_in_Humboldt_County_CA_USA_/365231", "title"=>"Study area, host, and mortality distribution in Humboldt County CA, USA.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-01-05 01:27:11"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/694945"], "description"=>"<p><b>A</b>) We predict that the front moves north of the focus with average speed ∼4 km/year and in 2010 is located 28 to 35 km north of Redway (i.e., 31 to 38 km north of the estimated centre of the focus; see orange vertical line). If control were initiated in 2010 the front would slow down to: <b>B</b>) ∼1 km/year, with removal “at the origin” and host protection “ahead of the origin”, although in 2016 the front would jump over the protected area and speed up (<a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g004\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 4E</a>); and <b>C</b>) ∼2 km/year, with removal “at” and “ahead of the origin” (<a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g005\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 5D</a>). The annual weather pattern in each year after 2010 equals the average during 2000–2009. The red and blue curves show the locations where the probability of pathogen invasion is 5% and 95%, respectively, which we use to define the moving front of the epidemic. The speed of the moving front is bounded by the slopes of the straight lines that approximate the iso-probability curves. The position of the front at given time is bounded by these curves; the distance between them (black line) provides a measure of uncertainty associated with chance variation in the spread of infection. When there is control, the lines are fitted to the post-control period to avoid influence by past conditions, while for natural spread a broader period is allowed including past and future.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["cryptic", "humboldt"], "article_id"=>365359, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Ecology", "Biotechnology", "Plant Biology"], "users"=>["João A. N. Filipe", "Richard C. Cobb", "Ross K. Meentemeyer", "Christopher A. Lee", "Yana S. Valachovic", "Alex R. Cook", "David M. Rizzo", "Christopher A. Gilligan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>2, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Speed_and_location_of_the_cryptic_epidemic_front_in_Humboldt_County_up_to_2017_/365359", "title"=>"Speed and location of the cryptic epidemic front in Humboldt County up to 2017.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-01-05 01:29:19"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/694681"], "description"=>"<p>Rational management (eradication or suppression) of invading pathogens on a heterogeneous landscape requires estimating the extent (including the front) of the cryptic epidemic which is larger than what the prevalence of symptoms suggests at given time t<sub>0</sub> (<b>A</b>). Without this information, treatment (of symptomatic or of all hosts at later time t<sub>1</sub>) is restricted to a control area defined by the observed symptoms, which misses out cryptic infections around (and possibly within) the core of the outbreak (<b>B</b>). The degree of mismatch between scales of control and infection depend on the degrees of cryptic and long-distance spread in the pathosystem. At a subsequent time, t<sub>2</sub>, the cryptic infections (some of which have become symptomatic) have continued to spread beyond the control area, expanding the epidemic focus (<b>C</b>), and spreading back into the control area if it still contains non-infected hosts (<b>D</b>), regardless of the amount of control effort. A barrier treatment (total removal of hosts) ahead of the epidemic front, whether or not combined with treatment of symptoms at the epidemic core, is likely to fail to contain (although it might delay) the outbreak when the pathogen is able to disperse over distances larger than the width of the barrier (<b>E</b>). A central concept in invasion is that of <i>local basic reproduction number</i> (R<sub>0</sub>), the average number of units infected by a <i>local</i> unit at site <i>x</i> in an otherwise susceptible landscape. On average, an epidemic occurs at <i>x</i>, after inoculation, if R<sub>0</sub>>1(<b>A</b>), otherwise transmission is not sustained. Treatment might reduce R<sub>0</sub> below 1 within the control area (<b>B</b>) but not in the rest of the landscape, to where and within where inoculum continues to spread and establish (<b>C, E</b>), and from where it is able to re-invade the control area regardless of the local reduction in R<sub>0</sub> (<b>D</b>). As a result, maintaining infection at low non-increasing level within the control area requires continued follow up.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["principles", "pathogens", "cryptic", "long-distance"], "article_id"=>365099, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Ecology", "Biotechnology", "Plant Biology"], "users"=>["João A. N. Filipe", "Richard C. Cobb", "Ross K. Meentemeyer", "Christopher A. Lee", "Yana S. Valachovic", "Alex R. Cook", "David M. Rizzo", "Christopher A. Gilligan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Epidemiological_principles_in_landscape_control_of_plant_pathogens_with_cryptic_infection_and_long_distance_dispersal_/365099", "title"=>"Epidemiological principles in landscape control of plant pathogens with cryptic infection and long-distance dispersal.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-01-05 01:24:59"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/695075"], "description"=>"<p>Risk maps showing probability of infection (cryptic and symptomatic) on logarithmic scale (red∼1, yellow∼0.1, green∼0.01, blue∼0.001, violet≤0.0001). In 2010 the epidemic front is 31–38 km from the origin (broken lines, c.f. <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g003\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 3</a>). <b>A–B</b>) 2010 and 2017: natural spread. <b>C–F</b>) 2017: controlled spread – all treatments fail to contain the front and protect the <i>Target</i> area from invasion; the delay in invasion is indicated (top) where ≥1year. <b>C</b>) Removal at the origin (Area 1, thick black line, c.f. <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g002\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 2D</a>) – the front is not delayed significantly (c.f. <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 1C</a>); local inoculum is kept at a low level but is not eliminated due to the 2–3 year delay in detecting cryptic infection and removing inoculum, host re-colonization after removal, and re-infection from non-controlled-areas (c.f. <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 1D</a>). <b>D</b>) Removal ahead of the origin (Area 2) – the front is also not delayed significantly. <b>E</b>) Mixed strategy: host protection (Agri-Fos®) ahead of the origin and removal at the origin – the protection initially extends beyond the epidemic front and delays it (speed∼1 km/year, <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g003\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 3B</a>), but as protection is partial and wanes, this “barrier” thins (c.f. A) and is overcome by long-distance dispersal (c.f. <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 1E</a>). <b>F</b>) “Host-free barrier” 5 km thick, 35 km from Redway, is overcome by long-distance dispersal (c.f. <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328#pcbi-1002328-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 1E</a>).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["treatments", "initiated", "areas", "cryptic"], "article_id"=>365491, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Ecology", "Biotechnology", "Plant Biology"], "users"=>["João A. N. Filipe", "Richard C. Cobb", "Ross K. Meentemeyer", "Christopher A. Lee", "Yana S. Valachovic", "Alex R. Cook", "David M. Rizzo", "Christopher A. Gilligan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002328.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Alternative_treatments_initiated_in_2010_in_areas_smaller_than_the_cryptic_epidemic_/365491", "title"=>"Alternative treatments initiated in 2010 in areas smaller than the cryptic epidemic.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-01-05 01:31:31"}

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