Modeling the Impact of White-Plague Coral Disease in Climate Change Scenarios
Publication Date
June 18, 2015
Journal
PLOS Computational Biology
Authors
Assaf Zvuloni, Yael Artzy Randrup, Guy Katriel, Yossi Loya, et al
Volume
11
Issue
6
Pages
e1004151
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.1004151
PubMed
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26086846
PubMed Central
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4473065
Europe PMC
http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/26086846
Web of Science
000357340100003
Scopus
84953299065
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/modeling-impact-whiteplague-coral-disease-climate-change-scenarios
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Mendeley | Further Information

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Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2125950"], "description"=>"<p>The red dots represent the number of NICs observed in the field along the studied year. The grey dots represent the median number of NICs as predicted by generating infections according to the SIS epidemic model based on <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151#pcbi.1004151.e002\" target=\"_blank\">Eq 2</a> (see text), and the grey bars represent their 95% confidence interval.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["sea surface temperature", "Spatiotemporal Dynamics", "magnitude", "White Plague Disease", "Disease dynamics", "sst", "WPD outbreaks", "WPD epidemics", "stressors increase", "transmission pattern", "Climate Change Scenarios Coral reefs", "model"], "article_id"=>1454196, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Assaf Zvuloni", "Yael Artzy-Randrup", "Guy Katriel", "Yossi Loya", "Lewi Stone"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Number_of_newly_infected_corals_NICs_/1454196", "title"=>"Number of newly-infected corals (NICs).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-06-18 04:28:39"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2125947"], "description"=>"<p><b>A</b>) Initiation of WPD—a thin zone of bleached tissue grading into exposed coral skeleton. <b>B</b>) A sharp boundary between apparently healthy tissue (‘H’) and freshly exposed skeleton (‘S’), with no build-up of microorganisms or necrotic tissue visible to the eye. With time, the exposed skeleton becomes colonized by algae (‘A’). <b>C</b>) An aggregation of corals infected with WPD.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["sea surface temperature", "Spatiotemporal Dynamics", "magnitude", "White Plague Disease", "Disease dynamics", "sst", "WPD outbreaks", "WPD epidemics", "stressors increase", "transmission pattern", "Climate Change Scenarios Coral reefs", "model"], "article_id"=>1454193, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Assaf Zvuloni", "Yael Artzy-Randrup", "Guy Katriel", "Yossi Loya", "Lewi Stone"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>13, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Coral_colonies_from_the_genus_Favia_infected_with_WPD_white_plague_disease_/1454193", "title"=>"Coral colonies from the genus Favia infected with WPD (white-plague disease).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-06-18 04:28:39"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2125953"], "description"=>"<p>The future projections in panels <b>A</b>, <b>B</b> and <b>C</b> rely on the demographic scenario of constant influx of recruits (64 recruits per year). Panels <b>D</b>, <b>E</b> and <b>F</b> rely on the scenario of free-space regulation of recruitment (see <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151#sec016\" target=\"_blank\">Material and Methods</a>). Panels <b>A</b> and <b>D</b> are based on the SST time-series measured between June 2006 and May 2007 recurrently from year to year in the corresponding months. Based on this time-series, we generate future projections by adding 0.5°C (panels <b>B</b> and <b>E</b>) and 1°C (panels <b>C</b> and <b>F</b>) to the SST of each month. In these simulations we allow each new recruit to settle randomly anywhere on the 10×10 m plane. <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151#pcbi.1004151.s004\" target=\"_blank\">S4 Fig</a> demonstrates robustness of these patterns under mild parameter variations.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["sea surface temperature", "Spatiotemporal Dynamics", "magnitude", "White Plague Disease", "Disease dynamics", "sst", "WPD outbreaks", "WPD epidemics", "stressors increase", "transmission pattern", "Climate Change Scenarios Coral reefs", "model"], "article_id"=>1454199, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Assaf Zvuloni", "Yael Artzy-Randrup", "Guy Katriel", "Yossi Loya", "Lewi Stone"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Simulated_future_projections_of_the_local_coral_community_spanning_80_years_/1454199", "title"=>"Simulated future projections of the local coral community spanning 80 years.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-06-18 04:28:39"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2125954", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2125955", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2125956", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2125957", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2125958"], "description"=>"<div><p>Coral reefs are in global decline, with coral diseases increasing both in prevalence and in space, a situation that is expected only to worsen as future thermal stressors increase. Through intense surveillance, we have collected a unique and highly resolved dataset from the coral reef of Eilat (Israel, Red Sea), that documents the spatiotemporal dynamics of a White Plague Disease (WPD) outbreak over the course of a full season. Based on modern statistical methodologies, we develop a novel spatial epidemiological model that uses a maximum-likelihood procedure to fit the data and assess the transmission pattern of WPD. We link the model to sea surface temperature (SST) and test the possible effect of increasing temperatures on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that the likelihood of a susceptible coral to become infected is governed both by SST and by its spatial location relative to nearby infected corals. The model shows that the magnitude of WPD epidemics strongly depends on demographic circumstances; under one extreme, when recruitment is free-space regulated and coral density remains relatively constant, even an increase of only 0.5°C in SST can cause epidemics to double in magnitude. In reality, however, the spatial nature of transmission can effectively protect the community, restricting the magnitude of annual epidemics. This is because the probability of susceptible corals to become infected is negatively associated with coral density. Based on our findings, we expect that infectious diseases having a significant spatial component, such as Red-Sea WPD, will never lead to a complete destruction of the coral community under increased thermal stress. However, this also implies that signs of recovery of local coral communities may be misleading; indicative more of spatial dynamics than true rehabilitation of these communities. In contrast to earlier generic models, our approach captures dynamics of WPD both in space and time, accounting for the highly seasonal nature of annual WPD outbreaks.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["sea surface temperature", "Spatiotemporal Dynamics", "magnitude", "White Plague Disease", "Disease dynamics", "sst", "WPD outbreaks", "WPD epidemics", "stressors increase", "transmission pattern", "Climate Change Scenarios Coral reefs", "model"], "article_id"=>1454200, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Assaf Zvuloni", "Yael Artzy-Randrup", "Guy Katriel", "Yossi Loya", "Lewi Stone"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151.s004", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151.s005"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>15, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Modeling_the_Impact_of_White_Plague_Coral_Disease_in_Climate_Change_Scenarios_/1454200", "title"=>"Modeling the Impact of White-Plague Coral Disease in Climate Change Scenarios", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2015-06-18 04:28:39"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2125952"], "description"=>"<p><b>A)</b> Number of corals infected with white-plague disease (WPD) within the studied plot (red squares), and <b>B)</b> the estimated parameters <b>ct</b> (red circles) which express the transmission strength of the disease (see <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151#pcbi.1004151.e002\" target=\"_blank\">Eq 2</a>), as opposed to sea-surface temperature (SST; 7 days running average; blue line) starting from June 2006 to May 2007. Polynomial regression between <i>ct</i> and SST is shown in the insert.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["sea surface temperature", "Spatiotemporal Dynamics", "magnitude", "White Plague Disease", "Disease dynamics", "sst", "WPD outbreaks", "WPD epidemics", "stressors increase", "transmission pattern", "Climate Change Scenarios Coral reefs", "model"], "article_id"=>1454198, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Assaf Zvuloni", "Yael Artzy-Randrup", "Guy Katriel", "Yossi Loya", "Lewi Stone"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>13, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Seasonal_pattern_of_WPD_/1454198", "title"=>"Seasonal pattern of WPD.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-06-18 04:28:39"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2125949"], "description"=>"<p>The function is maximized at </p><p></p><p></p><p><mi>α</mi><mo>^</mo></p><p></p><p></p> = 1.9, giving the estimate of parameter <i>α</i>. The insert shows a close up of the 95% CI of <i>α</i> (represented by the red horizontal line).<p></p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["sea surface temperature", "Spatiotemporal Dynamics", "magnitude", "White Plague Disease", "Disease dynamics", "sst", "WPD outbreaks", "WPD epidemics", "stressors increase", "transmission pattern", "Climate Change Scenarios Coral reefs", "model"], "article_id"=>1454195, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Assaf Zvuloni", "Yael Artzy-Randrup", "Guy Katriel", "Yossi Loya", "Lewi Stone"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Profile_likelihood_function_M_945_/1454195", "title"=>"Profile likelihood function <i>M</i>(<i>α</i>).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-06-18 04:28:39"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2125948"], "description"=>"<p>The black line represents the observed <i>n</i>(<i>r</i>) values (<a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151#pcbi.1004151.e001\" target=\"_blank\">Eq 1</a>) for corals infected with WPD (white-plague disease), the solid red lines bound the Monte Carlo 95% CI envelope for two different null expectations, and the dashed red line marks the median of these: <b>A)</b> new infections develop randomly within the studied plot, independent of the spatial location of infected corals from the previous month; and <b>B)</b> new infections develop according to the spatiotemporal model (<a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151#pcbi.1004151.e002\" target=\"_blank\">Eq 2</a>). For distance scales <i>r</i> where <i>n</i>(<i>r</i>) values fall within the envelope, the spatial distribution of infected corals does not differ significantly from the null expectation. Infected corals are significantly more aggregated where the observed <i>n</i>(<i>r</i>) values fall above the CI envelope. Comparisons between all the other pairs of sequential sampling dates are given in <a href=\"http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151#pcbi.1004151.s002\" target=\"_blank\">S2 Fig</a>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["sea surface temperature", "Spatiotemporal Dynamics", "magnitude", "White Plague Disease", "Disease dynamics", "sst", "WPD outbreaks", "WPD epidemics", "stressors increase", "transmission pattern", "Climate Change Scenarios Coral reefs", "model"], "article_id"=>1454194, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Assaf Zvuloni", "Yael Artzy-Randrup", "Guy Katriel", "Yossi Loya", "Lewi Stone"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>29, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Plots_of_the_spatiotemporal_index_n_r_calculated_for_pairs_of_sequential_sampling_dates_here_June_July_see_text_/1454194", "title"=>"Plots of the spatiotemporal index <i>n</i>(<i>r</i>), calculated for pairs of sequential sampling dates (here June-July; see text).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-06-18 04:28:39"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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Relative Metric

{"start_date"=>"2015-01-01T00:00:00Z", "end_date"=>"2015-12-31T00:00:00Z", "subject_areas"=>[]}
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