Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence
Publication Date
October 19, 2017
Authors
Spencer J. Fox, Joel C. Miller & Lauren Ancel Meyers
Volume
13
Issue
10
Pages
e1005749
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005749
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.1005749
Scopus
85032438373
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/seasonality-risk-pandemic-influenza-emergence
Events
Loading … Spinner

Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Spencer J.", "last_name"=>"Fox", "scopus_author_id"=>"56585317800"}, {"first_name"=>"Joel C.", "last_name"=>"Miller", "scopus_author_id"=>"34880614600"}, {"first_name"=>"Lauren Ancel", "last_name"=>"Meyers", "scopus_author_id"=>"7005055717"}], "year"=>2017, "source"=>"PLoS Computational Biology", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"15537358", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005749", "sgr"=>"85032438373", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-85032438373", "isbn"=>"1111111111", "pmid"=>"29049288", "pui"=>"619081531"}, "id"=>"32748a6d-9e33-317e-8878-6740a7576065", "abstract"=>"Influenza pandemics can emerge unexpectedly and wreak global devastation. However, each of the six pandemics since 1889 emerged in the Northern Hemisphere just after the flu season, suggesting that pandemic timing may be predictable. Using a stochastic model fit to seasonal flu surveillance data from the United States, we find that seasonal flu leaves a tran-sient wake of heterosubtypic immunity that impedes the emergence of novel flu viruses. This refractory period provides a simple explanation for not only the spring-summer timing of historical pandemics, but also early increases in pandemic severity and multiple waves of transmission. Thus, pandemic risk may be seasonal and predictable, with the accuracy of pre-pandemic and real-time risk assessments hinging on reliable seasonal influenza surveil-lance and precise estimates of the breadth and duration of heterosubtypic immunity. Author summary Influenza pandemics emerge via genomic reassortment between circulating human and animal strains. The risk of pandemic emergence should therefore be high during the flu season, when viruses are abundant and conditions favor transmission. However, the six pandemics on record since 1889 all emerged in the Northern Hemisphere following the flu season, suggesting that other forces may predictably constrain pandemic risk. We find that seasonal influenza epidemics leave a wake of immunity that impedes pandemic emer-gence. This transient refractory period is consistent with the spring-summer emergence, multiple wave dynamics of recent pandemics, and may cause initial underestimation of the viral transmission rate. These findings may improve pre-pandemic risk assessments and real-time situational awareness, particularly as we gain greater insight into the extent of immunity.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/seasonality-risk-pandemic-influenza-emergence", "reader_count"=>26, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Librarian"=>1, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Researcher"=>8, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>9, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Other"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>1, "Student > Master"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Librarian"=>1, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Researcher"=>8, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>9, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Other"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>1, "Student > Master"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Environmental Science"=>1, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Mathematics"=>4, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>6, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>3, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>1, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>5, "Computer Science"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>3}, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>{"Immunology and Microbiology"=>5}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>6}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>2}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>4}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>3}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>1}, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>{"Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>1}}, "group_count"=>3}

Scopus | Further Information

{"@_fa"=>"true", "link"=>[{"@_fa"=>"true", "@ref"=>"self", "@href"=>"https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85032438373"}, {"@_fa"=>"true", "@ref"=>"author-affiliation", "@href"=>"https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85032438373?field=author,affiliation"}, {"@_fa"=>"true", "@ref"=>"scopus", "@href"=>"https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85032438373&origin=inward"}, {"@_fa"=>"true", "@ref"=>"scopus-citedby", "@href"=>"https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85032438373&origin=inward"}], "prism:url"=>"https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85032438373", "dc:identifier"=>"SCOPUS_ID:85032438373", "eid"=>"2-s2.0-85032438373", "dc:title"=>"Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence", "dc:creator"=>"Fox S.", "prism:publicationName"=>"PLoS Computational Biology", "prism:issn"=>"1553734X", "prism:eIssn"=>"15537358", "prism:volume"=>"13", "prism:issueIdentifier"=>"10", "prism:pageRange"=>nil, "prism:coverDate"=>"2017-10-01", "prism:coverDisplayDate"=>"October 2017", "prism:doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005749", "citedby-count"=>"1", "affiliation"=>[{"@_fa"=>"true", "affilname"=>"University of Texas at Austin", "affiliation-city"=>"Austin", "affiliation-country"=>"United States"}], "pubmed-id"=>"29049288", "prism:aggregationType"=>"Journal", "subtype"=>"ar", "subtypeDescription"=>"Article", "article-number"=>"e1005749", "source-id"=>"4000151810", "openaccess"=>"1", "openaccessFlag"=>true}

Twitter

Counter

  • {"month"=>"10", "year"=>"2017", "pdf_views"=>"295", "xml_views"=>"12", "html_views"=>"2887"}
  • {"month"=>"11", "year"=>"2017", "pdf_views"=>"140", "xml_views"=>"6", "html_views"=>"1329"}
  • {"month"=>"12", "year"=>"2017", "pdf_views"=>"166", "xml_views"=>"3", "html_views"=>"481"}
  • {"month"=>"1", "year"=>"2018", "pdf_views"=>"156", "xml_views"=>"2", "html_views"=>"320"}
  • {"month"=>"2", "year"=>"2018", "pdf_views"=>"144", "xml_views"=>"1", "html_views"=>"132"}
  • {"month"=>"3", "year"=>"2018", "pdf_views"=>"123", "xml_views"=>"1", "html_views"=>"97"}
  • {"month"=>"4", "year"=>"2018", "pdf_views"=>"112", "xml_views"=>"0", "html_views"=>"86"}
  • {"month"=>"5", "year"=>"2018", "pdf_views"=>"121", "xml_views"=>"1", "html_views"=>"54"}
  • {"month"=>"6", "year"=>"2018", "pdf_views"=>"110", "xml_views"=>"4", "html_views"=>"59"}
  • {"month"=>"7", "year"=>"2018", "pdf_views"=>"112", "xml_views"=>"6", "html_views"=>"25"}
  • {"month"=>"8", "year"=>"2018", "pdf_views"=>"133", "xml_views"=>"2", "html_views"=>"35"}
  • {"month"=>"9", "year"=>"2018", "pdf_views"=>"112", "xml_views"=>"1", "html_views"=>"62"}
  • {"month"=>"10", "year"=>"2018", "pdf_views"=>"113", "xml_views"=>"1", "html_views"=>"35"}
  • {"month"=>"11", "year"=>"2018", "pdf_views"=>"123", "xml_views"=>"0", "html_views"=>"54"}
  • {"month"=>"12", "year"=>"2018", "pdf_views"=>"113", "xml_views"=>"4", "html_views"=>"38"}
  • {"month"=>"1", "year"=>"2019", "pdf_views"=>"142", "xml_views"=>"2", "html_views"=>"49"}
  • {"month"=>"2", "year"=>"2019", "pdf_views"=>"115", "xml_views"=>"2", "html_views"=>"40"}
  • {"month"=>"3", "year"=>"2019", "pdf_views"=>"118", "xml_views"=>"7", "html_views"=>"64"}
  • {"month"=>"4", "year"=>"2019", "pdf_views"=>"74", "xml_views"=>"3", "html_views"=>"35"}
  • {"month"=>"5", "year"=>"2019", "pdf_views"=>"77", "xml_views"=>"1", "html_views"=>"22"}

PMC Usage Stats

  • {"unique-ip"=>"47", "full-text"=>"40", "pdf"=>"24", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"23", "supp-data"=>"7", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2017", "month"=>"11"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"26", "full-text"=>"22", "pdf"=>"13", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"9", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2017", "month"=>"12"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"38", "full-text"=>"38", "pdf"=>"13", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"12", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"1"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"4", "full-text"=>"2", "pdf"=>"4", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"2"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"26", "full-text"=>"30", "pdf"=>"3", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"13", "supp-data"=>"4", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"3"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"25", "full-text"=>"24", "pdf"=>"6", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"5", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"1"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"33", "full-text"=>"35", "pdf"=>"10", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"1", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"5"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"23", "full-text"=>"22", "pdf"=>"3", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"1", "supp-data"=>"2", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"4"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"17", "full-text"=>"16", "pdf"=>"6", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"6"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"12", "full-text"=>"18", "pdf"=>"3", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"4", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"7"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"29", "full-text"=>"28", "pdf"=>"6", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"5", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"8"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"23", "full-text"=>"28", "pdf"=>"3", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"9"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"48", "full-text"=>"33", "pdf"=>"38", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"4", "supp-data"=>"5", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"10"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"37", "full-text"=>"45", "pdf"=>"5", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"9", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"11"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"31", "full-text"=>"33", "pdf"=>"4", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"1", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"12"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"36", "full-text"=>"35", "pdf"=>"6", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"2", "supp-data"=>"1", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"2"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"46", "full-text"=>"60", "pdf"=>"7", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"6", "supp-data"=>"1", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"3"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"30", "full-text"=>"32", "pdf"=>"4", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"4", "supp-data"=>"1", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"4"}
Loading … Spinner
There are currently no alerts