Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet
Publication Date
August 16, 2016
Journal
PLOS Medicine
Authors
Douglas G. Manuel, Richard Perez, Claudia Sanmartin, Monica Taljaard, et al
Volume
13
Issue
8
Pages
e1002082
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002082
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.1002082
Web of Science
000383357400011
Scopus
84988918314
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/measuring-burden-unhealthy-behaviours-using-multivariable-predictive-approach-life-expectancy-lost-c
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Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Douglas G.", "last_name"=>"Manuel", "scopus_author_id"=>"7003750731"}, {"first_name"=>"Richard", "last_name"=>"Perez", "scopus_author_id"=>"56388181600"}, {"first_name"=>"Claudia", "last_name"=>"Sanmartin", "scopus_author_id"=>"6701415765"}, {"first_name"=>"Monica", "last_name"=>"Taljaard", "scopus_author_id"=>"13104397100"}, {"first_name"=>"Deirdre", "last_name"=>"Hennessy", "scopus_author_id"=>"8389972600"}, {"first_name"=>"Kumanan", "last_name"=>"Wilson", "scopus_author_id"=>"7403726567"}, {"first_name"=>"Peter", "last_name"=>"Tanuseputro", "scopus_author_id"=>"6506713049"}, {"first_name"=>"Heather", "last_name"=>"Manson", "scopus_author_id"=>"12767485400"}, {"first_name"=>"Carol", "last_name"=>"Bennett", "scopus_author_id"=>"27172360100"}, {"first_name"=>"Meltem", "last_name"=>"Tuna", "scopus_author_id"=>"35216426600"}, {"first_name"=>"Stacey", "last_name"=>"Fisher", "scopus_author_id"=>"57191341496"}, {"first_name"=>"Laura C.", "last_name"=>"Rosella", "scopus_author_id"=>"23489789700"}], "year"=>2016, "source"=>"PLoS Medicine", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"15491676", "sgr"=>"84988918314", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84988918314", "isbn"=>"1549-1676", "pui"=>"612441814", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pmed.1002082", "pmid"=>"27529741"}, "id"=>"7582e110-f214-300b-a68e-84ed1bf2f6c4", "abstract"=>"BACKGROUND Behaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-cause death. METHODS A predictive algorithm for 5 y risk of death-the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)-was developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys. There were approximately 1 million person-years of follow-up and 9,900 deaths in the development and validation datasets. After validation, MPoRT was used to predict future mortality and estimate the burden of smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and poor diet in the presence of sociodemographic and other risk factors using the 2010 national survey (approximately 90,000 respondents). Canadian period life tables were generated using predicted risk of death from MPoRT. The burden of behavioural risk factors attributable to life expectancy was estimated using hazard ratios from the MPoRT risk model. FINDINGS The MPoRT 5 y mortality risk algorithms were discriminating (C-statistic: males 0.874 [95% CI: 0.867-0.881]; females 0.875 [0.868-0.882]) and well calibrated in all 58 predefined subgroups. Discrimination was maintained or improved in the validation cohorts. For the 2010 Canadian population, unhealthy behaviour attributable life expectancy lost was 6.0 years for both men and women (for men 95% CI: 5.8 to 6.3 for women 5.8 to 6.2). The Canadian life expectancy associated with health behaviour recommendations was 17.9 years (95% CI: 17.7 to 18.1) greater for people with the most favourable risk profile compared to those with the least favourable risk profile (88.2 years versus 70.3 years). Smoking, by itself, was associated with 32% to 39% of the difference in life expectancy across social groups (by education achieved or neighbourhood deprivation). CONCLUSIONS Multivariable predictive algorithms such as MPoRT can be used to assess health burdens for sociodemographic groups or for small changes in population exposure to risks, thereby addressing some limitations of more commonly used measurement approaches. Unhealthy behaviours have a substantial collective burden on the life expectancy of the Canadian population.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/measuring-burden-unhealthy-behaviours-using-multivariable-predictive-approach-life-expectancy-lost-c", "reader_count"=>29, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>3, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>5, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Other"=>4, "Student > Master"=>5, "Student > Bachelor"=>3, "Professor"=>4}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>3, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>5, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Other"=>4, "Student > Master"=>5, "Student > Bachelor"=>3, "Professor"=>4}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Nursing and Health Professions"=>3, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>14, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>1, "Sports and Recreations"=>2, "Social Sciences"=>6, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1, "Engineering"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>14}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>6}, "Sports and Recreations"=>{"Sports and Recreations"=>2}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>1}, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>{"Nursing and Health Professions"=>3}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}}, "group_count"=>0}

Scopus | Further Information

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