Combining Climatic Projections and Dispersal Ability: A Method for Estimating the Responses of Sandfly Vector Species to Climate Change
Publication Date
November 29, 2011
Journal
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Authors
Dominik Fischer, Philipp Moeller, Stephanie M. Thomas, Torsten J. Naucke, et al
Volume
5
Issue
11
Pages
e1407
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pntd.0001407
PubMed
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22140590
PubMed Central
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3226457
Europe PMC
http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/22140590
Web of Science
000298134000030
Scopus
82555169355
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/combining-climatic-projections-dispersal-ability-method-estimating-responses-sandfly-vector-species
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Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: A method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Dominik", "last_name"=>"Fischer", "scopus_author_id"=>"36659213100"}, {"first_name"=>"Philipp", "last_name"=>"Moeller", "scopus_author_id"=>"54792169200"}, {"first_name"=>"Stephanie M.", "last_name"=>"Thomas", "scopus_author_id"=>"7404654137"}, {"first_name"=>"Torsten J.", "last_name"=>"Naucke", "scopus_author_id"=>"6506841478"}, {"first_name"=>"Carl", "last_name"=>"Beierkuhnlein", "scopus_author_id"=>"6603051853"}], "year"=>2011, "source"=>"PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"19352727", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-82555169355", "pui"=>"363024966", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407", "isbn"=>"1935-2735 (Electronic)\\n1935-2727 (Linking)", "sgr"=>"82555169355", "pmid"=>"22140590"}, "id"=>"2621f1f6-1489-3785-b40f-612b0d9f01b1", "abstract"=>"BACKGROUND: In the Old World, sandfly species of the genus Phlebotomus are known vectors of Leishmania, Bartonella and several viruses. Recent sandfly catches and autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis hint on spreading tendencies of the vectors towards Central Europe. However, studies addressing potential future distribution of sandflies in the light of a changing European climate are missing. METHODOLOGY: Here, we modelled bioclimatic envelopes using MaxEnt for five species with proven or assumed vector competence for Leishmania infantum, which are either predominantly located in (south-) western (Phlebotomus ariasi, P. mascittii and P. perniciosus) or south-eastern Europe (P. neglectus and P. perfiliewi). The determined bioclimatic envelopes were transferred to two climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) for Central Europe (Austria, Germany and Switzerland) using data of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. We detected the most likely way of natural dispersal (\"least-cost path\") for each species and hence determined the accessibility of potential future climatically suitable habitats by integrating landscape features, projected changes in climatic suitability and wind speed. RESULTS AND RELEVANCE: Results indicate that the Central European climate will become increasingly suitable especially for those vector species with a current south-western focus of distribution. In general, the highest suitability of Central Europe is projected for all species in the second half of the 21st century, except for P. perfiliewi. Nevertheless, we show that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy their climatically suitable habitats entirely, due to their limited natural dispersal ability. A northward spread of species with south-eastern focus of distribution may be constrained but not completely avoided by the Alps. Our results can be used to install specific monitoring systems to the projected risk zones of potential sandfly establishment. This is urgently needed for adaptation and coping strategies against the emerging spread of sandfly-borne diseases.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/combining-climatic-projections-dispersal-ability-method-estimating-responses-sandfly-vector-species", "reader_count"=>89, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>12, "Researcher"=>16, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>27, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>12, "Other"=>3, "Student > Bachelor"=>7, "Professor"=>5}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>12, "Researcher"=>16, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>27, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>12, "Other"=>3, "Student > Bachelor"=>7, "Professor"=>5}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Engineering"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>17, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>3, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>43, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>8, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>4, "Social Sciences"=>4, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>2, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>3, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>8}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>4}, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>{"Immunology and Microbiology"=>2}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>3}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>43}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>3}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>3}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>17}, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>{"Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>4}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Czech Republic"=>2, "Argentina"=>1, "Belgium"=>1, "United States"=>4, "Denmark"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>2, "France"=>1}, "group_count"=>5}

CrossRef

Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/708261"], "description"=>"<p>Elevation is visualised in tenfold vertical exaggeration. The Alps are the highest mountain range in the continental interior of Europe separating the Mediterranean region from Central Europe and extending from France (West) through Switzerland and Italy (South) into Austria, Germany (North) Slovenia, and Croatia (East). Alpine regions are considered as the main natural barrier for natural sandfly dispersal.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["topography"], "article_id"=>378624, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Dominik Fischer", "Philipp Moeller", "Stephanie M. Thomas", "Torsten J. Naucke", "Carl Beierkuhnlein"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>27, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Location_and_topography_of_the_Alps_/378624", "title"=>"Location and topography of the Alps.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-11-29 02:23:44"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/708570"], "description"=>"<p>The detected pathways indicate direction of spread in the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Spatio-temporal varying climatic suitability and wind speed included in the cost surface that must be crossed by species in the 21<sup>st</sup> century refer to the A1B scenario.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["paths"], "article_id"=>378938, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Dominik Fischer", "Philipp Moeller", "Stephanie M. Thomas", "Torsten J. Naucke", "Carl Beierkuhnlein"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Least_cost_paths_for_Phlebotomus_species_/378938", "title"=>"Least-cost paths for <i>Phlebotomus</i> species.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-11-29 02:28:58"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/708665"], "description"=>"<p>Factors are surfaces were generated by considering both, spatio-temporal stable and variable environmental conditions within the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Two cost factors are stable within the 21<sup>st</sup> century: River valleys are considered as the preferred breeding sites for sandflies <a href=\"http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407#pntd.0001407-Lindgren1\" target=\"_blank\">[2]</a>. Hence, regions which include river valleys are attributed with costs. Sea as absolute barrier cannot be crossed. Beyond, an altitudinal cost structure was developed in accordance to the preferred elevation of sandflies <a href=\"http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407#pntd.0001407-Lindgren1\" target=\"_blank\">[2]</a>. Two factors vary in the 21<sup>st</sup> century: MaxEnt-values of climatic suitability range theoretically from 0 (unfavourable conditions) to 1 (perfect conditions). These values are classified and attributed with costs in accordance to the suitability; the lower the suitability the higher the costs. This factor is species-specific. Cost factors for wind speeds are related to the observations concerning wind-speed dependent flight activity. They are taken from findings of Lane <a href=\"http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407#pntd.0001407-Lane1\" target=\"_blank\">[94]</a> concerning the highest flight activity up to 1.5 m/s; from Quate <a href=\"http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407#pntd.0001407-Quate1\" target=\"_blank\">[95]</a> who observed a reduced flight activity between 1.5–2.5 m/s and Roberts <a href=\"http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407#pntd.0001407-Roberts1\" target=\"_blank\">[96]</a> who noticed no flight activity above wind speeds of 3.5 m/s. Climatic suitability and wind speed were averaged over two subsequent time-periods.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["factors", "defined", "surfaces"], "article_id"=>379025, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Dominik Fischer", "Philipp Moeller", "Stephanie M. Thomas", "Torsten J. Naucke", "Carl Beierkuhnlein"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>6, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Cost_factors_within_the_defined_cost_surfaces_for_Phlebotomus_species_/379025", "title"=>"Cost factors within the defined cost surfaces for <i>Phlebotomus</i> species.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2011-11-29 02:30:25"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/708363"], "description"=>"<p>Least-cost analysis was used to determine the most likely way of natural dispersal sandfly species in the 21<sup>st</sup> century.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["least-cost"], "article_id"=>378722, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Dominik Fischer", "Philipp Moeller", "Stephanie M. Thomas", "Torsten J. Naucke", "Carl Beierkuhnlein"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Principle_of_the_least_cost_analysis_/378722", "title"=>"Principle of the least-cost analysis.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-11-29 02:25:22"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/708738"], "description"=>"<p>AUC-values are a threshold-independent model quality criterion and range from 0 to 1 (perfect fit). Useful models yielded in AUC-values above 0.7, where excellent models achieve at least AUC-scores above 0.9. Training gains are determined by Jackknife test for the selected variables by using only this variable for the model (upper value) and if the specific variable is removed for the rest of the variable set (lower value). For the species with current (south-) western focus of distribution (<i>P. ariasi</i>, <i>P. mascittii</i> and <i>P. perniciosus</i>) BIO 11 (Mean temperature of the coldest quarter) represents the most important variable. This is indicated by the highest training gain of the model by using only this variable and the lowest training when this variable is removed from the set of variables. The drop of BIO 10 (Mean temperature of the warmest quarter) from the set of variables instead seems to lower training gain most for the species with (south-) eastern focus of distribution. BIO 13 (Precipitation of the wettest month) is identified as most important variable when used in isolation for <i>P. neglectus</i>, while BIO 11 seems to be most influencing factor in isolation regarding the occurrences of <i>P. perfiliewi</i>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["bioclimatic"], "article_id"=>379101, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Dominik Fischer", "Philipp Moeller", "Stephanie M. Thomas", "Torsten J. Naucke", "Carl Beierkuhnlein"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Number_of_species_presence_records_AUC_values_and_training_gain_for_the_selected_bioclimatic_variables_/379101", "title"=>"Number of species presence records, AUC-values, and training gain for the selected bioclimatic variables.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2011-11-29 02:31:41"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/708707"], "description"=>"<p>Noted are mean values and standard deviation in brackets. Projections refer to the A1B scenario.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["projected", "climatic", "suitability"], "article_id"=>379065, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Dominik Fischer", "Philipp Moeller", "Stephanie M. Thomas", "Torsten J. Naucke", "Carl Beierkuhnlein"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407.t003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Current_and_projected_climatic_suitability_for_Phlebotomus_species_in_Central_Europe_/379065", "title"=>"Current and projected climatic suitability for <i>Phlebotomus</i> species in Central Europe.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2011-11-29 02:31:05"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/708467"], "description"=>"<p>Values of climatic suitability range theoretically from 0 (unfavourable conditions) to 1 (perfect conditions). Projections refer to the A1B scenario.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["projected", "climatic", "suitability"], "article_id"=>378826, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Dominik Fischer", "Philipp Moeller", "Stephanie M. Thomas", "Torsten J. Naucke", "Carl Beierkuhnlein"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Current_and_projected_climatic_suitability_for_five_Phlebotomus_species_/378826", "title"=>"Current and projected climatic suitability for five <i>Phlebotomus</i> species.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-11-29 02:27:06"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/359528", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/359599", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/359629"], "description"=>"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>In the Old World, sandfly species of the genus <em>Phlebotomus</em> are known vectors of <em>Leishmania</em>, <em>Bartonella</em> and several viruses. Recent sandfly catches and autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis hint on spreading tendencies of the vectors towards Central Europe. However, studies addressing potential future distribution of sandflies in the light of a changing European climate are missing.</p> <h3>Methodology</h3><p>Here, we modelled bioclimatic envelopes using MaxEnt for five species with proven or assumed vector competence for <em>Leishmania infantum</em>, which are either predominantly located in (south-) western (<em>Phlebotomus ariasi</em>, <em>P. mascittii</em> and <em>P. perniciosus</em>) or south-eastern Europe (<em>P. neglectus</em> and <em>P. perfiliewi</em>). The determined bioclimatic envelopes were transferred to two climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) for Central Europe (Austria, Germany and Switzerland) using data of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. We detected the most likely way of natural dispersal (“least-cost path”) for each species and hence determined the accessibility of potential future climatically suitable habitats by integrating landscape features, projected changes in climatic suitability and wind speed.</p> <h3>Results and Relevance</h3><p><a href=\"http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407#s3\">Results</a> indicate that the Central European climate will become increasingly suitable especially for those vector species with a current south-western focus of distribution. In general, the highest suitability of Central Europe is projected for all species in the second half of the 21st century, except for <em>P. perfiliewi</em>. Nevertheless, we show that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy their climatically suitable habitats entirely, due to their limited natural dispersal ability. A northward spread of species with south-eastern focus of distribution may be constrained but not completely avoided by the Alps. Our results can be used to install specific monitoring systems to the projected risk zones of potential sandfly establishment. This is urgently needed for adaptation and coping strategies against the emerging spread of sandfly-borne diseases.</p> </div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["combining", "climatic", "projections", "dispersal", "estimating", "responses", "sandfly", "vector"], "article_id"=>131058, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Cancer", "Ecology", "Biotechnology"], "users"=>["Dominik Fischer", "Philipp Moeller", "Stephanie M. Thomas", "Torsten J. Naucke", "Carl Beierkuhnlein"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001407.s003"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>26, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Combining_Climatic_Projections_and_Dispersal_Ability_A_Method_for_Estimating_the_Responses_of_Sandfly_Vector_Species_to_Climate_Change/131058", "title"=>"Combining Climatic Projections and Dispersal Ability: A Method for Estimating the Responses of Sandfly Vector Species to Climate Change", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2011-11-29 00:17:38"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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Relative Metric

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