Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India
Publication Date
December 01, 2016
Authors
Mauricio Santos Vega, Menno J Bouma, Vijay Kohli & Mercedes Pascual
Volume
10
Issue
12
Pages
e0005155
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005155
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pntd.0005155
Scopus
85008698187
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/population-density-climate-variables-poverty-synergistically-structure-spatial-risk-urban-malaria-in
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Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Mauricio", "last_name"=>"Santos-Vega", "scopus_author_id"=>"56080831100"}, {"first_name"=>"Menno J.", "last_name"=>"Bouma", "scopus_author_id"=>"7005836152"}, {"first_name"=>"Vijay", "last_name"=>"Kohli", "scopus_author_id"=>"7006092475"}, {"first_name"=>"Mercedes", "last_name"=>"Pascual", "scopus_author_id"=>"7102302593"}], "year"=>2016, "source"=>"PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases", "identifiers"=>{"doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pntd.0005155", "sgr"=>"85008698187", "pui"=>"613987235", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-85008698187", "issn"=>"19352735", "pmid"=>"27906962", "isbn"=>"1935-2727"}, "id"=>"af94d896-6134-3a5a-aaf3-728cce64851a", "abstract"=>"BACKGROUND: The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India) that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a basis for more targeted intervention, such as vector control, based on transmission 'hotspots'. This is especially relevant for P. vivax, a more resilient parasite than P. falciparum, due to its ability to relapse and the operational shortcomings of delivering a \"radical cure\".", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/population-density-climate-variables-poverty-synergistically-structure-spatial-risk-urban-malaria-in", "reader_count"=>35, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Researcher"=>6, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>5, "Student > Master"=>9, "Other"=>2, "Student > Bachelor"=>5, "Lecturer"=>1, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Researcher"=>6, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>5, "Student > Master"=>9, "Other"=>2, "Student > Bachelor"=>5, "Lecturer"=>1, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>6, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>2, "Computer Science"=>2, "Decision Sciences"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2, "Energy"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>1, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>4, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>5, "Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutical Science"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>2, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>5}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>2}, "Decision Sciences"=>{"Decision Sciences"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>4}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>1}, "Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutical Science"=>{"Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutical Science"=>1}, "Energy"=>{"Energy"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2}, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>{"Immunology and Microbiology"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>6}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>2}, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>{"Nursing and Health Professions"=>4}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>{"Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>2}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Australia"=>1}, "group_count"=>5}

Scopus | Further Information

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