Coping with Commitment: Projected Thermal Stress on Coral Reefs under Different Future Scenarios
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{"title"=>"Coping with commitment: Projected thermal stress on coral reefs under different future scenarios", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Simon D.", "last_name"=>"Donner", "scopus_author_id"=>"6602577444"}], "year"=>2009, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"19326203", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-66749150979", "pui"=>"354694502", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0005712", "isbn"=>"1932-6203", "sgr"=>"66749150979", "pmid"=>"19492060"}, "id"=>"c05f8593-87d1-3ba4-b507-7dd830a2a817", "abstract"=>"BACKGROUND: Periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures can lead to mass coral bleaching. Past studies have concluded that anthropogenic climate change may rapidly increase the frequency of these thermal stress events, leading to declines in coral cover, shifts in the composition of corals and other reef-dwelling organisms, and stress on the human populations who depend on coral reef ecosystems for food, income and shoreline protection. The ability of greenhouse gas mitigation to alter the near-term forecast for coral reefs is limited by the time lag between greenhouse gas emissions and the physical climate response.\\n\\nMETHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This study uses observed sea surface temperatures and the results of global climate model forced with five different future emissions scenarios to evaluate the \"committed warming\" for coral reefs worldwide. The results show that the physical warming commitment from current accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could cause over half of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent (p> or =0.2 year(-1)) thermal stress by 2080. An additional \"societal\" warming commitment, caused by the time required to shift from a business-as-usual emissions trajectory to a 550 ppm CO(2) stabilization trajectory, may cause over 80% of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent events by 2030. Thermal adaptation of 1.5 degrees C would delay the thermal stress forecast by 50-80 years.\\n\\nCONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results suggest that adaptation -- via biological mechanisms, coral community shifts and/or management interventions -- could provide time to change the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and possibly avoid the recurrence of harmfully frequent events at the majority (97%) of the world's coral reefs this century. Without any thermal adaptation, atmospheric CO(2) concentrations may need to be stabilized below current levels to avoid the degradation of coral reef ecosystems from frequent thermal stress events.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/coping-commitment-projected-thermal-stress-coral-reefs-under-different-future-scenarios", "reader_count"=>263, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>5, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>12, "Librarian"=>4, "Researcher"=>61, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>19, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>56, "Student > Postgraduate"=>7, "Other"=>16, "Student > Master"=>35, "Student > Bachelor"=>34, "Lecturer"=>2, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>11}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>5, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>12, "Librarian"=>4, "Researcher"=>61, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>19, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>56, "Student > Postgraduate"=>7, "Other"=>16, "Student > Master"=>35, "Student > Bachelor"=>34, "Lecturer"=>2, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>11}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>13, "Environmental Science"=>68, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>3, "Mathematics"=>3, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>131, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>2, "Arts and Humanities"=>2, "Neuroscience"=>1, "Psychology"=>2, "Social Sciences"=>8, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>27, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>3}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>2}, "Neuroscience"=>{"Neuroscience"=>1}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>8}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>2}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>27}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>3}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>131}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>3}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>3}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>13}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>68}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>2}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Colombia"=>1, "Fiji Islands"=>1, "United States"=>15, "United Kingdom"=>2, "Malaysia"=>3, "Kenya"=>2, "Switzerland"=>1, "Portugal"=>1, "Costa Rica"=>1, "Canada"=>2, "Netherlands"=>1, "Sweden"=>1, "Taiwan"=>1, "Brazil"=>5, "Mexico"=>6, "South Africa"=>1, "Australia"=>5, "France"=>1, "Germany"=>3}, "group_count"=>15}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/896157"], "description"=>"1<p>SST variability refers to a severe bleaching threshold based on historical SST variability.</p>2<p>MMM<sub>max</sub> refers to the mean of the maximum monthly SST from each year in place of the MMM from the 1985–2000 SST climatology.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["coral", "reef", "cells", "projected", "probability", "bleaching", "exceeds", "changed", "incorporating", "alternate", "formulations"], "article_id"=>566604, "categories"=>["Science Policy", "Marine Biology", "Physics", "Ecology", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Simon D. Donner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005712.t003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>2, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Fraction_of_coral_reef_cells_in_which_the_projected_year_that_the_probability_of_severe_bleaching_exceeds_20_is_changed_by_incorporating_alternate_formulations_of_the_bleaching_algorithm_/566604", "title"=>"Fraction of coral reef cells in which the projected year that the probability of severe bleaching exceeds 20% is changed by incorporating alternate formulations of the bleaching algorithm.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 05:46:40"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/895879"], "description"=>"<p>The probability of mass bleaching in each scenario is estimated from running 10-year intervals of both the CM2.0 and CM2.1 simulations.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["probability", "bleaching", "events", "exceeds", "1687", "coral", "reef"], "article_id"=>566330, "categories"=>["Science Policy", "Marine Biology", "Physics", "Ecology", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Simon D. Donner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005712.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Frequency_distribution_of_the_year_in_which_the_probability_of_severe_mass_bleaching_events_DHM_8805_2_176_C_month_exceeds_20_for_each_the_1687_coral_reef_cells_/566330", "title"=>"Frequency distribution of the year in which the probability of severe mass bleaching events (DHM≥2°C-month) exceeds 20% for each the 1687 coral reef cells.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 05:45:15"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/895817"], "description"=>"<p>The anomaly is calculated from the ensemble of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 annual sea surface temperatures.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["anomaly", "indian"], "article_id"=>566273, "categories"=>["Science Policy", "Marine Biology", "Physics", "Ecology", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Simon D. Donner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005712.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Nine_year_running_mean_annual_sea_surface_temperature_anomaly_in_176_C_for_the_Central_Indian_Ocean_/566273", "title"=>"Nine-year running mean annual sea surface temperature anomaly (in °C) for the Central Indian Ocean.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 05:44:51"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/895957"], "description"=>"<p>The exceedence year in each scenario is the ensemble mean of the year in which the probability of DHM≥2°C-month exceeds 20%. In grid cells where the probability is not reached before 2100, the difference is calculated as 2100 – exceedence year for A1b. For the purposes of presentation, results are displayed for all grid cells, rather than only coral reef cells.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["exceedence", "a1b", "b1", "assuming", "thermal"], "article_id"=>566411, "categories"=>["Science Policy", "Marine Biology", "Physics", "Ecology", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Simon D. Donner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005712.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Positive_difference_in_the_exceedence_year_between_the_A1b_and_B1_scenarios_assuming_no_thermal_adaptation_/566411", "title"=>"Positive difference in the exceedence year between the A1b and B1 scenarios, assuming no thermal adaptation.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 05:45:39"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/896214"], "description"=>"<p>The anomaly for each region is the difference between the projected CM2.0 and CM2.1 ensemble decadal mean SST models and the 1980–2000 ensemble mean SST.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["sst", "anomaly", "averaged"], "article_id"=>566681, "categories"=>["Science Policy", "Marine Biology", "Physics", "Ecology", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Simon D. Donner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005712.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Annual_mean_SST_anomaly_averaged_across_each_ocean_province_/566681", "title"=>"Annual mean SST anomaly averaged across each ocean province.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 05:47:03"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/896186"], "description"=>"<p>The results are taken from CM2.0 and CM2.1 ensemble projections under different future emissions scenarios.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["probability", "exceeds"], "article_id"=>566648, "categories"=>["Science Policy", "Marine Biology", "Physics", "Ecology", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Simon D. Donner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005712.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>6, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Year_that_the_probability_of_DHM_gt_2_176_C_month_exceeds_20_/566648", "title"=>"Year that the probability of DHM>2°C-month exceeds 20%.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 05:46:54"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/895763"], "description"=>"<p>The observed global mean concentration from 1980 to 2007 is displayed for comparison. The concentration stabilizes at 370 ppm in the year 2000 in the Commit scenario. The concentration reaches at 550 ppm and 700 ppm by the year 2100, in the B1 and A1b scenarios respectively.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["globally", "averaged", "atmospheric", "carbon", "dioxide", "2000", "2100", "scenarios", "considered"], "article_id"=>566213, "categories"=>["Science Policy", "Marine Biology", "Physics", "Ecology", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Simon D. Donner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005712.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>14, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Annual_globally_averaged_atmospheric_carbon_dioxide_concentration_in_ppm_from_2000_to_2100_in_the_five_future_scenarios_considered_in_this_study_/566213", "title"=>"Annual globally averaged atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (in ppm) from 2000 to 2100 in the five future scenarios considered in this study.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 05:44:32"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/895703"], "description"=>"<p>The map depicts the 1687 cells which contain warm-water coral reefs and are described as ocean in the CM2.0 and CM2.1.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["coral", "reef", "grouped"], "article_id"=>566166, "categories"=>["Science Policy", "Marine Biology", "Physics", "Ecology", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Simon D. Donner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005712.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Map_of_the_0_5_176_215_0_5_176_coral_reef_8220_cells_8221_grouped_into_eleven_ocean_provinces_/566166", "title"=>"Map of the 0.5°×0.5° coral reef “cells” grouped into eleven ocean provinces.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 05:44:11"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/896029"], "description"=>"<p>The frequency of mass bleaching in each scenario is estimated from running 10-year intervals of both the CM2.0 and CM2.1 simulations. Shown are results for SRES A1b and SRES B1, assuming no thermal adaptation (thick lines) and 1.5°C thermal adaptation (dashed lines).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["probability", "bleaching", "events", "exceeds", "1687", "coral", "reef"], "article_id"=>566486, "categories"=>["Science Policy", "Marine Biology", "Physics", "Ecology", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Simon D. Donner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005712.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Frequency_distribution_of_the_year_in_which_the_probability_of_severe_mass_bleaching_events_DHM_8805_2_176_C_month_exceeds_20_for_each_the_1687_coral_reef_cells_/566486", "title"=>"Frequency distribution of the year in which the probability of severe mass bleaching events (DHM≥2°C-month) exceeds 20% for each the 1687 coral reef cells.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 05:46:03"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/896091"], "description"=>"<p>Shown are results for a) the A1b and b) the B1 scenario assuming no thermal adaptation (thick lines) and 1.5°C thermal adaptation (dashed lines).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["probability", "bleaching", "events", "exceeds", "1687", "coral", "reef", "cells"], "article_id"=>566546, "categories"=>["Science Policy", "Marine Biology", "Physics", "Ecology", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Simon D. Donner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005712.g007", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>18, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Frequency_distribution_of_the_year_in_which_the_probability_of_severe_mass_bleaching_events_DHM_8805_2_176_C_month_exceeds_20_for_each_the_1687_coral_reef_cells_from_the_sensitivity_analysis_/566546", "title"=>"Frequency distribution of the year in which the probability of severe mass bleaching events (DHM≥2°C-month) exceeds 20% for each the 1687 coral reef cells from the sensitivity analysis.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 05:46:21"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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  • {"unique-ip"=>"9", "full-text"=>"9", "pdf"=>"1", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"13", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2016", "month"=>"11"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"10", "full-text"=>"9", "pdf"=>"2", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"2", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2016", "month"=>"12"}
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  • {"unique-ip"=>"8", "full-text"=>"10", "pdf"=>"0", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"1", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"3"}
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  • {"unique-ip"=>"2", "full-text"=>"2", "pdf"=>"1", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"7"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"3", "full-text"=>"2", "pdf"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"1", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"8"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"6", "full-text"=>"4", "pdf"=>"4", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"10"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"9", "full-text"=>"8", "pdf"=>"1", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"4", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"11"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"6", "full-text"=>"6", "pdf"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"9"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"11", "full-text"=>"10", "pdf"=>"2", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2018", "month"=>"12"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"9", "full-text"=>"4", "pdf"=>"5", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"7", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"2"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"6", "full-text"=>"2", "pdf"=>"5", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"3"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"6", "full-text"=>"5", "pdf"=>"2", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"4"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"16", "full-text"=>"17", "pdf"=>"4", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"5"}
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Relative Metric

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