Current Demographics Suggest Future Energy Supplies Will Be Inadequate to Slow Human Population Growth
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{"title"=>"Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"John P.", "last_name"=>"DeLong", "scopus_author_id"=>"7006369993"}, {"first_name"=>"Oskar", "last_name"=>"Burger", "scopus_author_id"=>"12791759800"}, {"first_name"=>"Marcus J.", "last_name"=>"Hamilton", "scopus_author_id"=>"8578778600"}], "year"=>2010, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"isbn"=>"1932-6203", "issn"=>"19326203", "pui"=>"359856630", "pmid"=>"20957155", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0013206", "sgr"=>"78049232829", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-78049232829"}, "id"=>"c096c1e4-a165-3486-b4dc-9e93485cdcbd", "abstract"=>"Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/current-demographics-suggest-future-energy-supplies-inadequate-slow-human-population-growth", "reader_count"=>56, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>6, "Researcher"=>12, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>12, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>5, "Other"=>5, "Student > Bachelor"=>11, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>6, "Researcher"=>12, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>12, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>5, "Other"=>5, "Student > Bachelor"=>11, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>16, "Arts and Humanities"=>2, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>1, "Chemical Engineering"=>1, "Chemistry"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>3, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>4, "Energy"=>2, "Engineering"=>2, "Environmental Science"=>17, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>2, "Social Sciences"=>4}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>2}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>4}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>1}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>17}, "Chemical Engineering"=>{"Chemical Engineering"=>1}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>2}, "Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>2}, "Chemistry"=>{"Chemistry"=>1}, "Energy"=>{"Energy"=>2}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>3}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>4}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>16}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Colombia"=>1, "Romania"=>1, "United States"=>4, "Brazil"=>1, "Italy"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>1, "France"=>1, "Germany"=>2}, "group_count"=>1}

Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/826033"], "description"=>"<p><b>A</b>. Growth rate declines across countries, with an equilibrium at ∼13,000 W. The solid line is a regression fit through the data (−0.0058 ln(<i>E</i><sub>pc</sub>)+0.0553; R<sup>2</sup> = 0.54), and the dashed lines are drawn with 95% confidence intervals of the parameter estimates. <b>B</b>. Both mean birth rates and mean death rates decline with per-capita energy consumption, but birth rates fall faster than death rates, generating the decline in growth rate observed in <b>A</b>. Fits are: birth rate (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.67; equation is (−0.0074 ln(<i>E</i><sub>pc</sub>)+0.0775); death rate (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.19; equation is (−0.0015 ln(<i>E</i><sub>pc</sub>)+0.0202).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["rates", "per-capita", "countries"], "article_id"=>496400, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["John P. DeLong", "Oskar Burger", "Marcus J. Hamilton"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0013206.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relationship_between_demographic_rates_2000_8211_2005_and_per_capita_energy_consumption_for_countries_2003_/496400", "title"=>"Relationship between demographic rates (2000–2005) and per-capita energy consumption for countries (2003).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 23:01:54"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/826161"], "description"=>"<p><b>A</b>. Four scenarios bracket the uncertainty in future energy availability. A leveling of population at 9–10 b requires all people on the planet to have access to ∼13 kW on average, given current demographics. The quantity of energy needed to do this (pink line) is far outside any projection of future energy supplies. <b>B</b>. Projections of population growth given the four energy scenarios in <b>A</b>. All energy scenarios are insufficient to raise global per-capita energy supplies to the level at which growth rates reach zero, and therefore no stabilization of the population is seen. However, a lower trajectory (dashed yellow line) can be achieved by switching the distribution of energy use from the current state, where developed countries use 85% of total energy, to an egalitarian state, where the distribution is set by the proportion of people in the world by developmental status. Under this assumption, developed countries use 15% of the total energy supply. In this trajectory, the optimistic energy supply scenario is used.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology/population ecology", "ecology/theoretical ecology", "evolutionary biology/human evolution"], "article_id"=>496533, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["John P. DeLong", "Oskar Burger", "Marcus J. Hamilton"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0013206.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Past_and_future_global_energy_availability_and_population_size_/496533", "title"=>"Past and future global energy availability and population size.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 23:02:39"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/826248"], "description"=>"<p>Following the UN medium projection requires not only large energetic inputs, but a shift in the distribution of the energy, from being dominated by developed countries (85%:15%) to being dominated by developing countries (25%:75%).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["un", "requires", "energetic", "dominated", "developed", "countries"], "article_id"=>496611, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["John P. DeLong", "Oskar Burger", "Marcus J. Hamilton"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0013206.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Following_the_UN_medium_projection_requires_not_only_large_energetic_inputs_but_a_shift_in_the_distribution_of_the_energy_from_being_dominated_by_developed_countries_85_15_to_being_dominated_by_developing_countries_25_75_/496611", "title"=>"Following the UN medium projection requires not only large energetic inputs, but a shift in the distribution of the energy, from being dominated by developed countries (85%:15%) to being dominated by developing countries (25%:75%).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 23:03:06"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/826307"], "description"=>"<p>The main relation is the same as in <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0013206#pone-0013206-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Figure 1</a>. Growth trajectories given for the optimistic energy scenario only, indicating that even with best-case energy availability, the error in the growth rate – per-capita energy use relation is not large enough to include a leveling to 9–10 billion by mid-century.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["projected"], "article_id"=>496680, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["John P. DeLong", "Oskar Burger", "Marcus J. Hamilton"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0013206.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_The_effect_of_variation_in_the_growth_rate_E_pc_relation_on_projected_population_growth_/496680", "title"=>"The effect of variation in the growth rate – <i>E</i><sub>pc</sub> relation on projected population growth.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 23:03:28"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/826359"], "description"=>"<p>This negative relationship is the direct result of a negative relationship between growth rate and per-capita energy use that generates an industrial, as opposed to an ecological, path to zero growth.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["2050"], "article_id"=>496730, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["John P. DeLong", "Oskar Burger", "Marcus J. Hamilton"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0013206.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Inverse_relationship_between_global_energy_supply_in_2050_and_global_population_size_in_2050_/496730", "title"=>"Inverse relationship between global energy supply in 2050 and global population size in 2050.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 23:03:45"}

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Relative Metric

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