Age-Specific Incidence of A/H1N1 2009 Influenza Infection in England from Sequential Antibody Prevalence Data Using Likelihood-Based Estimation
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{"title"=>"Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Marc", "last_name"=>"Baguelin", "scopus_author_id"=>"16309167900"}, {"first_name"=>"Katja", "last_name"=>"Hoschler", "scopus_author_id"=>"24402410800"}, {"first_name"=>"Elaine", "last_name"=>"Stanford", "scopus_author_id"=>"7003597044"}, {"first_name"=>"Pauline", "last_name"=>"Waight", "scopus_author_id"=>"7003367994"}, {"first_name"=>"Pia", "last_name"=>"Hardelid", "scopus_author_id"=>"23099718100"}, {"first_name"=>"Nick", "last_name"=>"Andrews", "scopus_author_id"=>"7103346572"}, {"first_name"=>"Elizabeth", "last_name"=>"Miller", "scopus_author_id"=>"7404491797"}], "year"=>2011, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"19326203", "sgr"=>"79953835722", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0017074", "isbn"=>"1932-6203 (Electronic)\\n1932-6203 (Linking)", "pmid"=>"21373639", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-79953835722", "pui"=>"361578027"}, "id"=>"aa4b4ea0-ed4c-3b2c-bcfd-eee79b24b229", "abstract"=>"Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years). The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/agespecific-incidence-ah1n1-2009-influenza-infection-england-sequential-antibody-prevalence-data-usi", "reader_count"=>62, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Researcher"=>19, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>5, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>15, "Student > Postgraduate"=>4, "Other"=>2, "Student > Master"=>3, "Student > Bachelor"=>4, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>5}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Researcher"=>19, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>5, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>15, "Student > Postgraduate"=>4, "Other"=>2, "Student > Master"=>3, "Student > Bachelor"=>4, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>5}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Environmental Science"=>2, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>1, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Materials Science"=>1, "Mathematics"=>12, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>23, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>14, "Arts and Humanities"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>2, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Materials Science"=>{"Materials Science"=>1}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>23}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>2}, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>{"Immunology and Microbiology"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>14}, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>{"Nursing and Health Professions"=>1}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>12}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>4}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>2}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Vietnam"=>1, "Hong Kong"=>1, "United States"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>7, "Italy"=>1, "Israel"=>1, "Australia"=>1}, "group_count"=>7}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/797189"], "description"=>"<p>Proportion of clinical cases by week for the second wave for four age-groups (1–4, 5–14, 15–24, 25–44 years) derived from clinical surveillance data.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["clinial", "cases"], "article_id"=>467553, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Marc Baguelin", "Katja Hoschler", "Elaine Stanford", "Pauline Waight", "Pia Hardelid", "Nick Andrews", "Elizabeth Miller"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017074.g001"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Proportion_of_clinial_cases_by_week_/467553", "title"=>"Proportion of clinial cases by week.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 20:27:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/797255"], "description"=>"<p>a) Proportion of individuals with HI titer <32 by interval since symptom onset: blue lines and points show the proportion in four-day intervals with confidence intervals and the red curve show the fitted parametric inverse cumulative distributions with the 95% CI (credible intervals) and b) distribution of the time to seroconversion since symptoms with 95% CI.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["public health and epidemiology", "Infectious diseases", "mathematics", "Non-clinical medicine"], "article_id"=>467621, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Marc Baguelin", "Katja Hoschler", "Elaine Stanford", "Pauline Waight", "Pia Hardelid", "Nick Andrews", "Elizabeth Miller"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017074.g002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Estimation_of_the_interval_to_seroconversion_/467621", "title"=>"Estimation of the interval to seroconversion.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 20:27:30"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/797324"], "description"=>"<p>Estimated cumulated incidence distributions for age-groups 1–4, 5–14, 15–24, 25–44 years during the second wave.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["cumulated"], "article_id"=>467697, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Marc Baguelin", "Katja Hoschler", "Elaine Stanford", "Pauline Waight", "Pia Hardelid", "Nick Andrews", "Elizabeth Miller"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017074.g003"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Posterior_distribution_of_the_cumulated_incidences_/467697", "title"=>"Posterior distribution of the cumulated incidences.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 20:27:53"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/797390"], "description"=>"<p>Estimated changes in seroprevalence and cumulative incidence compared with proportion with HI titer ≥32 by week by age group a) 1–4 years, b) 5–14 years c) 15–24 years d) 25–44 years.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["seroprevalence", "cumulative", "incidence"], "article_id"=>467756, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Marc Baguelin", "Katja Hoschler", "Elaine Stanford", "Pauline Waight", "Pia Hardelid", "Nick Andrews", "Elizabeth Miller"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017074.g004"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Changes_in_seroprevalence_and_cumulative_incidence_over_time_/467756", "title"=>"Changes in seroprevalence and cumulative incidence over time.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 20:28:12"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/797463"], "description"=>"<p>*CI, credible intervals,</p><p>**as described in reference 6.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["samples", "titer", "tested", "cumulative", "incidence", "credible", "h1n1", "england", "september", "2009"], "article_id"=>467813, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Mathematics", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Marc Baguelin", "Katja Hoschler", "Elaine Stanford", "Pauline Waight", "Pia Hardelid", "Nick Andrews", "Elizabeth Miller"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017074.t001"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Baseline_percentage_of_samples_with_HI_titer_32_before_the_start_of_the_second_wave_number_of_samples_tested_and_estimated_cumulative_incidence_with_95_credible_intervals_over_the_second_wave_of_H1N1_2009_infection_in_England_starting_from_September_1_st/467813", "title"=>"Baseline percentage of samples with HI titer ≥32 before the start of the second wave, number of samples tested and estimated cumulative incidence (with 95% credible intervals) over the second wave of H1N1 (2009) infection in England starting from September 1<sup>st</sup> 2009 according to age group.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 20:28:34"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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  • {"unique-ip"=>"5", "full-text"=>"4", "pdf"=>"3", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2014", "month"=>"6"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"5", "full-text"=>"4", "pdf"=>"1", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2014", "month"=>"4"}
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  • {"unique-ip"=>"4", "full-text"=>"4", "pdf"=>"1", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2015", "month"=>"6"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"2", "full-text"=>"2", "pdf"=>"0", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2015", "month"=>"7"}
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Relative Metric

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