How Citation Boosts Promote Scientific Paradigm Shifts and Nobel Prizes
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{"title"=>"How citation boosts promote scientific paradigm shifts and Nobel Prizes", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Amin", "last_name"=>"Mazloumian", "scopus_author_id"=>"26531517500"}, {"first_name"=>"Young Ho", "last_name"=>"Eom", "scopus_author_id"=>"8454032000"}, {"first_name"=>"Dirk", "last_name"=>"Helbing", "scopus_author_id"=>"7005232363"}, {"first_name"=>"Sergi", "last_name"=>"Lozano", "scopus_author_id"=>"24341533200"}, {"first_name"=>"Santo", "last_name"=>"Fortunato", "scopus_author_id"=>"7005680829"}], "year"=>2011, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"19326203", "pui"=>"361732889", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0018975", "sgr"=>"79955773309", "arxiv"=>"1105.1917", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-79955773309", "isbn"=>"1932-6203 (Electronic)\\r1932-6203 (Linking)", "pmid"=>"21573229"}, "id"=>"7e405731-9d1d-317a-82cb-3325c10db229", "abstract"=>"Nobel Prizes are commonly seen to be among the most prestigious achievements of our times. Based on mining several million citations, we quantitatively analyze the processes driving paradigm shifts in science. We find that groundbreaking discoveries of Nobel Prize Laureates and other famous scientists are not only acknowledged by many citations of their landmark papers. Surprisingly, they also boost the citation rates of their previous publications. Given that innovations must outcompete the rich-gets-richer effect for scientific citations, it turns out that they can make their way only through citation cascades. A quantitative analysis reveals how and why they happen. Science appears to behave like a self-organized critical system, in which citation cascades of all sizes occur, from continuous scientific progress all the way up to scientific revolutions, which change the way we see our world. Measuring the \"boosting effect\" of landmark papers, our analysis reveals how new ideas and new players can make their way and finally triumph in a world dominated by established paradigms. The underlying \"boost factor\" is also useful to discover scientific breakthroughs and talents much earlier than through classical citation analysis, which by now has become a widespread method to measure scientific excellence, influencing scientific careers and the distribution of research funds. Our findings reveal patterns of collective social behavior, which are also interesting from an attention economics perspective. Understanding the origin of scientific authority may therefore ultimately help to explain how social influence comes about and why the value of goods depends so strongly on the attention they attract.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/citation-boosts-promote-scientific-paradigm-shifts-nobel-prizes", "reader_count"=>152, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>5, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>10, "Librarian"=>4, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>11, "Researcher"=>45, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>27, "Student > Postgraduate"=>4, "Student > Master"=>15, "Other"=>10, "Student > Bachelor"=>2, "Lecturer"=>3, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>15}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>5, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>10, "Librarian"=>4, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>11, "Researcher"=>45, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>27, "Student > Postgraduate"=>4, "Student > Master"=>15, "Other"=>10, "Student > Bachelor"=>2, "Lecturer"=>3, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>15}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>8, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>29, "Philosophy"=>2, "Arts and Humanities"=>1, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>6, "Chemical Engineering"=>2, "Chemistry"=>8, "Computer Science"=>20, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2, "Engineering"=>6, "Environmental Science"=>5, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>3, "Mathematics"=>3, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>8, "Neuroscience"=>2, "Sports and Recreations"=>2, "Physics and Astronomy"=>16, "Psychology"=>6, "Social Sciences"=>20, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>8}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>20}, "Sports and Recreations"=>{"Sports and Recreations"=>2}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>16}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>6}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>3}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>8}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>5}, "Chemical Engineering"=>{"Chemical Engineering"=>2}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>1}, "Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>6}, "Chemistry"=>{"Chemistry"=>8}, "Neuroscience"=>{"Neuroscience"=>2}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2}, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>{"Immunology and Microbiology"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>29}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>20}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>6}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>3}, "Philosophy"=>{"Philosophy"=>2}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>7, "Malaysia"=>1, "Sweden"=>1, "Netherlands"=>1, "Iran"=>1, "China"=>1, "Ireland"=>1, "Serbia and Montenegro"=>1, "Brazil"=>1, "Poland"=>1, "France"=>3, "Chile"=>1, "Colombia"=>1, "Philippines"=>1, "Japan"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>3, "Switzerland"=>3, "Canada"=>2, "Belgium"=>1, "Finland"=>1, "Denmark"=>1, "Italy"=>2, "South Africa"=>1, "Mexico"=>1, "Australia"=>1, "Germany"=>1}, "group_count"=>9}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/776772"], "description"=>"<p>Temporal dependence of for Nobel\n Laureates [here for (a) Mario R. Capecchi (Medicine, 2007), (b) John C.\n Mather (Physics, 2006), (c) Roger Y. Tsien (Chemistry, 2008) and (d) Roger\n B. Myerson (Economics, 2007)]. Sharp peaks indicate citation boosts in\n favor of older papers, triggered by the publication and recognition of a\n landmark paper. Insets: The peaks even persist (though somewhat smaller), if\n in the determination of the citation counts , the landmark\n paper is skipped (which is defined as the paper that produces the largest\n reduction in the peak size, when excluded from the computation of the boost\n factor). We conclude that the observed citation boosts are mostly due to a\n collective effect involving several publications rather than due to the high\n citation rate of the landmark paper itself.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["evolutions"], "article_id"=>447144, "categories"=>["Physics", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Amin Mazloumian", "Young-Ho Eom", "Dirk Helbing", "Sergi Lozano", "Santo Fortunato"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0018975.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Typical_time_evolutions_of_the_boost_factor_/447144", "title"=>"Typical time evolutions of the boost factor.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 18:34:29"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/776821"], "description"=>"<p> Each panel displays the time histories of four variables: the boost factor\n , the average number of citations per paper\n , the cumulative number of citations\n , and the -index earned\n until year <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0018975#pone.0018975-Hirsch1\" target=\"_blank\">[21]</a>. The\n panels refer to the same Nobel Laureates as displayed in <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0018975#pone-0018975-g002\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 2</a>. The classical\n indices have relatively smooth profiles, i.e. they are not very sensitive to\n extreme events in the life of a scientist like the publication of landmark\n papers. An advantage of the boost factor is that its peaks allow one to\n identify scientific breakthroughs earlier.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["citation"], "article_id"=>447193, "categories"=>["Physics", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Amin Mazloumian", "Young-Ho Eom", "Dirk Helbing", "Sergi Lozano", "Santo Fortunato"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0018975.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Dynamics_of_the_boost_factor_versus_traditional_citation_variables_/447193", "title"=>"Dynamics of the boost factor versus traditional citation variables.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 18:34:48"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/776711"], "description"=>"<p>Typical citation trajectories of papers, here for Nobel Prize Laureate John\n Bennett Fenn, who received the award in chemistry in 2002 for the\n development of the electrospray ionization technique used to analyze\n biological macromolecules. The original article, entitled\n <i>Electrospray ionization for mass spectrometry of large\n biomolecules</i>, coauthored by M. Mann, C. K. Meng, S. F. Wong and\n C. M. Whitehouse, was published in <i>Science</i> in 1989 and is\n the most cited work of Fenn, with currently over 3,000 citations. The\n diagram reports the growth in time of the total number of citations received\n by this landmark paper (blue solid line) and by six older papers. The\n diagram indicates that the number of citations of the landmark paper has\n literally exploded in the first years after its appearance. However, after\n its publication in 1989, a number of other papers also enjoyed a much higher\n citation rate. Thus, a sizeable part of previous scientific work has reached\n a big impact after the publication of the landmark paper. We found that the\n occurrence of this boosting effect is characteristic for successful\n scientific careers.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["boosting"], "article_id"=>447082, "categories"=>["Physics", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Amin Mazloumian", "Young-Ho Eom", "Dirk Helbing", "Sergi Lozano", "Santo Fortunato"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0018975.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Illustration_of_the_boosting_effect_/447082", "title"=>"Illustration of the boosting effect.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 18:34:10"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/776876"], "description"=>"<p> We first determined the ranks of all papers of an author based on the total\n number of citations received until the year 2009 inclusively. We then\n determined the rank of that particular publication, which had the greatest\n contribution to the peak. This was done by measuring the reduction in the\n height of the peak, when the paper was excluded from the calculation of the\n boost factor (as in the insets of <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0018975#pone-0018975-g002\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 2</a>). The distribution of the ranks of\n “landmark papers” is dominated by low values, implying that they\n are indeed among the top publications of their authors.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["papers", "maxima", "of"], "article_id"=>447244, "categories"=>["Physics", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Amin Mazloumian", "Young-Ho Eom", "Dirk Helbing", "Sergi Lozano", "Santo Fortunato"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0018975.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Correlation_between_papers_and_the_local_maxima_peaks_of_____/447244", "title"=>"Correlation between papers and the local maxima (“peaks”) of\n .", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 18:35:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/776941"], "description"=>"<p>The four panels correspond to different choices of the parameters\n and . The power law\n fits (lines) are performed with the maximum likelihood method <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0018975#pone.0018975-Clauset1\" target=\"_blank\">[26]</a>. The\n exponents for the direct distribution (of which the cumulative distribution\n is the integral) are: (top left),\n (bottom left), (top right),\n (bottom right). The best fits have the following\n lower cutoffs and values of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistics:\n , (top left),\n , (bottom left),\n , (top right),\n , (bottom\n right). The KS values support the power law ansatz for the shape of the\n curves. Still, we point out that on the left plots the data span just one\n decade in the variable, so one has to be careful about the existence of\n power laws here.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["probability", "heights", "factor", "curves", "nobel"], "article_id"=>447306, "categories"=>["Physics", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Amin Mazloumian", "Young-Ho Eom", "Dirk Helbing", "Sergi Lozano", "Santo Fortunato"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0018975.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>6, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Cumulative_probability_distribution_of_peak_heights_in_the_boost_factor____curves_of_Nobel_Prize_Laureates_/447306", "title"=>"Cumulative probability distribution of peak heights in the boost factor\n curves of Nobel Prize Laureates.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 18:35:27"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/777023"], "description"=>"<p>On the x-axis we report the average number of citations of a scientist, on\n the y-axis his/her boost factor. It can be seen that, on average, Nobel\n Prize winners clearly perform better. However a Nobel Prize is not solely\n determined by the average number of citations and the boost factor, but also\n by further factors. These may be the degree of innovation or quality, which\n are hard to quantify.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["nobel", "laureates", "1361", "randomly"], "article_id"=>447391, "categories"=>["Physics", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Amin Mazloumian", "Young-Ho Eom", "Dirk Helbing", "Sergi Lozano", "Santo Fortunato"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0018975.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Two_dimensional_representation_of_our_collection_of_Nobel_Prize_Laureates____and_a_set_of_1361_scientists_which_were_randomly_selected_/447391", "title"=>"Two-dimensional representation of our collection of Nobel Prize Laureates\n and a set of 1361 scientists, which were randomly selected.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 18:35:53"}

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Relative Metric

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