Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations
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{"title"=>"Evaluation of Location-Specific predictions by a detailed simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Mathieu", "last_name"=>"Legros", "scopus_author_id"=>"24479280100"}, {"first_name"=>"Krisztian", "last_name"=>"Magori", "scopus_author_id"=>"13106023200"}, {"first_name"=>"Amy C.", "last_name"=>"Morrison", "scopus_author_id"=>"7402258304"}, {"first_name"=>"Chonggang", "last_name"=>"Xu", "scopus_author_id"=>"7404182103"}, {"first_name"=>"Thomas W.", "last_name"=>"Scott", "scopus_author_id"=>"7402144111"}, {"first_name"=>"Alun L.", "last_name"=>"Lloyd", "scopus_author_id"=>"35555137200"}, {"first_name"=>"Fred", "last_name"=>"Gould", "scopus_author_id"=>"7101644663"}], "year"=>2011, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"19326203", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-79960740109", "sgr"=>"79960740109", "pui"=>"362208641", "isbn"=>"1932-6203 (Electronic)\\r1932-6203 (Linking)", "pmid"=>"21799936", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0022701"}, "id"=>"103e6797-b052-3bab-86cb-c68b02d485d1", "abstract"=>"BACKGROUND: Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sites differ in the amount of field data that is available for location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluate population dynamics predictions by Skeeter Buster with varying degrees of customization.\\n\\nMETHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had Ae. aegypti abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons.\\n\\nCONCLUSIONS: This model can provide a faithful description of Ae. aegypti populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/evaluation-locationspecific-predictions-detailed-simulation-model-aedes-aegypti-populations", "reader_count"=>72, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>5, "Researcher"=>23, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>18, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>11, "Other"=>4, "Student > Bachelor"=>1, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>4}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>5, "Researcher"=>23, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>18, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>11, "Other"=>4, "Student > Bachelor"=>1, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>4}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Engineering"=>3, "Unspecified"=>4, "Environmental Science"=>6, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>3, "Mathematics"=>7, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>33, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>8, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>2, "Physics and Astronomy"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>2, "Computer Science"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>3}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>8}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>2}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>33}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>1}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>3}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>7}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>4}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>6}, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>{"Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>2}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>2, "United Kingdom"=>1, "Mexico"=>1, "Portugal"=>1}, "group_count"=>13}

Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/752772"], "description"=>"<p>The <i>x</i>-axis represents the container types defined in the Iquitos surveys <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701#pone.0022701-Morrison3\" target=\"_blank\">[22]</a>. Out of 14 total container types, the 8 most productive types are presented here, while the 6 remaining types are condensed into ‘Others’. The percentage of total pupae emerging from a given container type is presented for both model predictions (light gray bars) in the simulated area and field data (black bars) collected in the simulation set of houses.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["calibration", "pupal"], "article_id"=>423136, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Mathieu Legros", "Krisztian Magori", "Amy C. Morrison", "Chonggang Xu", "Thomas W. Scott", "Alun L. Lloyd", "Fred Gould"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Results_of_the_calibration_of_pupal_productivity_of_different_container_types_/423136", "title"=>"Results of the calibration of pupal productivity of different container types.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-07-25 00:52:16"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/752847"], "description"=>"<p>We compare time series of total numbers of pupae from a Skeeter Buster simulated population with values from the Iquitos survey data collected in houses forming the simulation set. Solid line presents one model outcome (with 1-year burn-in not presented). Red circles mark estimated numbers calculated from data collected during 6 separate field circuits (in 2000 and 2001) in the set of houses that corresponds to the simulated area, and adjusted to reflect our 612-house set. Note that each survey spans in reality a period of several weeks. Data points are positioned on this graph at the midpoint of each circuit.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["pupal", "observed"], "article_id"=>423213, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Mathieu Legros", "Krisztian Magori", "Amy C. Morrison", "Chonggang Xu", "Thomas W. Scott", "Alun L. Lloyd", "Fred Gould"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Comparison_of_predicted_pupal_time_series_and_observed_pupal_counts_/423213", "title"=>"Comparison of predicted pupal time series and observed pupal counts.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-07-25 00:53:33"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/752915"], "description"=>"<p>We calculate <i>L</i> values for 20 replicate Skeeter Buster simulations. This statistic is calculated (1) for the number of pupae within a house, noted <i>L<sub>w</sub></i>(<i>d</i>), and (2) for the houses themselves, being non-randomly distributed, noted <i>L</i>(<i>d</i>). Here we plot the difference between the increment in <i>L<sub>w</sub></i>(<i>d</i>) and the increment in <i>L</i>(<i>d</i>) – that is, (<i>L<sub>w</sub></i>(<i>d</i>) <i>- L<sub>w</sub></i>(<i>d-1</i>)) <i>–</i> (<i>L</i>(<i>d</i>) <i>- L</i>(<i>d-1</i>)) for all values of <i>d</i>. The distance <i>d</i> between two houses in this model is defined as the number of steps (horizontal or vertical only) separating these two locations in the grid. The existence of a significant cluster of size <i>d</i> is marked by a positive value of this difference, while a value of 0 is expected under random distribution.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["clustering", "skeeter", "buster", "simulated", "point-pattern"], "article_id"=>423276, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Mathieu Legros", "Krisztian Magori", "Amy C. Morrison", "Chonggang Xu", "Thomas W. Scott", "Alun L. Lloyd", "Fred Gould"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Measures_of_clustering_in_a_Skeeter_Buster_simulated_population_using_point_pattern_analysis_L_statistic_/423276", "title"=>"Measures of clustering in a Skeeter Buster simulated population using point-pattern analysis <i>L</i> statistic.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-07-25 00:54:36"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/752552"], "description"=>"<p>We use data from 13 distinct survey circuits during the period 1999-2003. We only consider houses that have been visited at least once. Black bars: distribution of the number of surveys for the whole city of Iquitos. Gray bars: distribution of the number of surveys in our selected 153-house subset.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["visits", "iquitos", "subset"], "article_id"=>422919, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Mathieu Legros", "Krisztian Magori", "Amy C. Morrison", "Chonggang Xu", "Thomas W. Scott", "Alun L. Lloyd", "Fred Gould"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Distribution_of_the_number_of_visits_per_house_in_the_city_of_Iquitos_and_in_our_selected_subset_of_houses_/422919", "title"=>"Distribution of the number of visits per house in the city of Iquitos and in our selected subset of houses.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-07-25 00:48:39"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/378966", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/379015", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/379063", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/379114"], "description"=>"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of <em>Aedes aegypti</em> populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sites differ in the amount of field data that is available for location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluate population dynamics predictions by Skeeter Buster with varying degrees of customization.</p> <h3>Methodology/Principal Findings</h3><p>Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of <em>Ae. aegypti</em> populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of <em>Ae. aegypti</em> in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had <em>Ae. aegypti</em> abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons.</p> <h3>Conclusions</h3><p>This model can provide a faithful description of <em>Ae. aegypti</em> populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation.</p> </div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["location-specific", "predictions", "simulation", "populations"], "article_id"=>134894, "categories"=>["Cancer", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Mathieu Legros", "Krisztian Magori", "Amy C. Morrison", "Chonggang Xu", "Thomas W. Scott", "Alun L. Lloyd", "Fred Gould"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701.s004"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Evaluation_of_Location_Specific_Predictions_by_a_Detailed_Simulation_Model_of_Aedes_aegypti_Populations/134894", "title"=>"Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of <em>Aedes aegypti</em> Populations", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2011-07-25 01:21:34"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/752662"], "description"=>"<p>Right: entire city of Iquitos. Each ‘+’ symbol represents an individual house referenced in the GIS map <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701#pone.0022701-Getis1\" target=\"_blank\">[20]</a>, <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701#pone.0022701-Morrison3\" target=\"_blank\">[22]</a>. Orange circles are houses that have been included in at least one survey circuit during the period considered in this study. Inset: a zoomed-in view of part of the Maynas district (delimited in yellow). Our selected block of houses constituting the simulation set is shown as the shaded region in the inset.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["153-house", "simulation"], "article_id"=>423032, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Mathieu Legros", "Krisztian Magori", "Amy C. Morrison", "Chonggang Xu", "Thomas W. Scott", "Alun L. Lloyd", "Fred Gould"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Selection_of_the_153_house_simulation_set_/423032", "title"=>"Selection of the 153-house simulation set.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-07-25 00:50:32"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/752972"], "description"=>"<p>Getis' <i>G<sub>i</sub></i> values are calculated for each house at distances 1, 3 or 5 houses. Significant positive values of <i>G<sub>i</sub></i> (yellow to green) indicate members of a positive clustering of pupae (grouping of high numbers). Significant negative values of <i>G<sub>i</sub></i> (purple to red) indicating members of a negative cluster (grouping of low numbers) are not observed in this setup. Houses that are not identified as members of either type of cluster are shown in black. Calculations with <i>d</i> >5 houses reveal no clusters, positive or negative (not shown).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["houses", "simulated", "members", "non-members", "pupal"], "article_id"=>423332, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Mathieu Legros", "Krisztian Magori", "Amy C. Morrison", "Chonggang Xu", "Thomas W. Scott", "Alun L. Lloyd", "Fred Gould"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Identification_of_individual_houses_in_the_simulated_population_as_members_or_non_members_of_pupal_clusters_/423332", "title"=>"Identification of individual houses in the simulated population as members or non-members of pupal clusters.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-07-25 00:55:32"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/753061"], "description"=>"<p>Time series presented here are from the beginning of July 2001 (week 52) to the end of June 2002 (week 104). Shaded dark gray area: observed fraction (95% CI) of positive ovitraps in a weekly field monitoring <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701#pone.0022701-Carbajo1\" target=\"_blank\">[40]</a>, <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701#pone.0022701-Carbajo2\" target=\"_blank\">[41]</a>. Black line: outcome of Otero <i>et al. </i><a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701#pone.0022701-Otero1\" target=\"_blank\">[12]</a> stochastic spatial model. Shaded red area: Skeeter Buster simulation results (95% CI of 20 replicated simulations) using container data obtained from Iquitos (see text). Discontinuities in the red area correspond to weeks during which no positive container was observed in the model.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["skeeter", "buster", "mataderos", "buenos"], "article_id"=>423423, "categories"=>["Ecology", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Mathieu Legros", "Krisztian Magori", "Amy C. Morrison", "Chonggang Xu", "Thomas W. Scott", "Alun L. Lloyd", "Fred Gould"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701.g007", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>18, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Application_of_Skeeter_Buster_to_the_Mataderos_neighborhood_in_Buenos_Aires_Argentina_/423423", "title"=>"Application of Skeeter Buster to the Mataderos neighborhood in Buenos Aires, Argentina.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2011-07-25 00:57:03"}

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