Entropies of Negative Incomes, Pareto-Distributed Loss, and Financial Crises
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{"title"=>"Entropies of negative incomes, Pareto-Distributed loss, and financial crises", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Jianbo", "last_name"=>"Gao", "scopus_author_id"=>"7404476150"}, {"first_name"=>"Jing", "last_name"=>"Hu", "scopus_author_id"=>"57198194352"}, {"first_name"=>"Xiang", "last_name"=>"Mao", "scopus_author_id"=>"57199704662"}, {"first_name"=>"Mi", "last_name"=>"Zhou", "scopus_author_id"=>"56306923000"}, {"first_name"=>"Brian", "last_name"=>"Gurbaxani", "scopus_author_id"=>"11140961500"}, {"first_name"=>"Johnny", "last_name"=>"Lin", "scopus_author_id"=>"56129640500"}], "year"=>2011, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"scopus"=>"2-s2.0-80053438724", "pui"=>"362681589", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0025053", "issn"=>"19326203", "pmid"=>"22007270", "sgr"=>"80053438724"}, "id"=>"a8c93224-3dc6-39fb-b446-311b161aa3b3", "abstract"=>"Health monitoring of world economy is an important issue, especially in a time of profound economic difficulty world-wide. The most important aspect of health monitoring is to accurately predict economic downturns. To gain insights into how economic crises develop, we present two metrics, positive and negative income entropy and distribution analysis, to analyze the collective \"spatial\" and temporal dynamics of companies in nine sectors of the world economy over a 19 year period from 1990-2008. These metrics provide accurate predictive skill with a very low false-positive rate in predicting downturns. The new metrics also provide evidence of phase transition-like behavior prior to the onset of recessions. Such a transition occurs when negative pretax incomes prior to or during economic recessions transition from a thin-tailed exponential distribution to the higher entropy Pareto distribution, and develop even heavier tails than those of the positive pretax incomes. These features propagate from the crisis initiating sector of the economy to other sectors.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/entropies-negative-incomes-paretodistributed-loss-financial-crises", "reader_count"=>7, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>1, "Other"=>1, "Student > Master"=>1, "Lecturer"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>1, "Other"=>1, "Student > Master"=>1, "Lecturer"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Physics and Astronomy"=>3, "Psychology"=>1, "Computer Science"=>1, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>3}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>1}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>1}}, "group_count"=>0}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/728678"], "description"=>"<p>(a) industrial sector, fourth quarter of 1991, 116 and 327 negative and positive pretax incomes; (b) industrial sector, first quarter of 1992, 118 and 335 negative and positive pretax incomes; (c) technology sector, second quarter of 2001, 275 and 418 negative and positive pretax incomes; (d) technology sector, fourth quarter of 2001, 356 and 345 negative and positive pretax incomes; (e) financial sector, fourth quarter of 2007, 141 and 823 negative and positive pretax incomes; (f) financial sector, second quarter of 2008, 157 and 800 negative and positive pretax incomes.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["pretax", "incomes", "amongst"], "article_id"=>399032, "categories"=>["Physics"], "users"=>["Jianbo Gao", "Jing Hu", "Xiang Mao", "Mi Zhou", "Brian Gurbaxani", "Johnny Lin"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0025053.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>15, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_CCDF_log_log_scale_for_negative_red_square_and_positive_black_circle_pretax_incomes_amongst_U_S_companies_/399032", "title"=>"CCDF (log-log scale) for negative (red square) and positive (black circle) pretax incomes amongst U.S. companies.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 14:09:52"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/728552"], "description"=>"<p>(a) variation of difference between entropy of negative and positive incomes with time; for exact timing of recessions, see <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0025053#pone-0025053-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Figs. 1</a>–<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0025053#pone-0025053-g003\" target=\"_blank\">3</a>; (b) variation in time of total income (where the income of the 1st quarter of 1990 is taken as 1 unit); (c) variation in time of total income ratio , where denotes year and denotes quarter, so means 1st quarter income in 1990; this ratio crudely measures GDP contraction/expansion. The grey and orange vertical dashed lines indicate, respectively, the downturn onset times determined by NBER and the dates the NBER announced their onset identifications.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["downturns", "metrics", "entropy"], "article_id"=>398907, "categories"=>["Physics"], "users"=>["Jianbo Gao", "Jing Hu", "Xiang Mao", "Mi Zhou", "Brian Gurbaxani", "Johnny Lin"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0025053.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>13, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Identification_of_economic_downturns_by_metrics_such_as_difference_between_entropy_of_negative_and_positive_incomes_total_income_and_total_income_ratio_/398907", "title"=>"Identification of economic downturns by metrics such as difference between entropy of negative and positive incomes, total income, and total income ratio.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 14:09:10"}
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  • {"unique-ip"=>"1", "full-text"=>"1", "pdf"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"3"}
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Relative Metric

{"start_date"=>"2011-01-01T00:00:00Z", "end_date"=>"2011-12-31T00:00:00Z", "subject_areas"=>[{"subject_area"=>"/Biology and life sciences", "average_usage"=>[304, 568, 702, 818, 927, 1027, 1118, 1206, 1285, 1357, 1427, 1500, 1564, 1636, 1705, 1773, 1840, 1909, 1974, 2039, 2106, 2170, 2234, 2296, 2358, 2423, 2484, 2546, 2606, 2673, 2734, 2795, 2857, 2921, 2984, 3046, 3100]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Ecology and environmental sciences/Ecology", "average_usage"=>[337, 543, 656, 754, 855, 949, 1023, 1107, 1185, 1257, 1318, 1395, 1469, 1547, 1616, 1681, 1752, 1827, 1902, 1966, 2031, 2090, 2153, 2222, 2312, 2383, 2442, 2522, 2599, 2672, 2729, 2806, 2865, 2920, 3004, 3060, 3112]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Medicine and health sciences", "average_usage"=>[303, 571, 709, 823, 937, 1038, 1133, 1216, 1298, 1370, 1447, 1518, 1588, 1656, 1725, 1790, 1856, 1926, 1992, 2054, 2118, 2182, 2242, 2301, 2363, 2425, 2484, 2544, 2602, 2662, 2716, 2776, 2841, 2901, 2960, 3016, 3071]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Medicine and health sciences/Health care", "average_usage"=>[337, 676, 827, 964, 1066, 1171, 1267, 1396, 1503, 1580, 1663, 1758, 1822, 1887, 1968, 2037, 2107, 2173, 2246, 2357, 2419, 2488, 2576, 2637, 2724, 2815, 2887, 2956, 3034, 3111, 3174, 3245, 3294, 3357, 3404, 3464, 3529]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Physical sciences", "average_usage"=>[303, 547, 667, 770, 875, 974, 1062, 1140, 1210, 1276, 1344, 1408, 1473, 1534, 1602, 1665, 1732, 1800, 1863, 1920, 1984, 2048, 2099, 2161, 2222, 2285, 2341, 2404, 2473, 2528, 2595, 2650, 2713, 2772, 2835, 2886, 2938]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Physical sciences/Physics", "average_usage"=>[296, 505, 611, 719, 815, 886, 966, 1040, 1111, 1173, 1227, 1283, 1342, 1400, 1459, 1516, 1572, 1635, 1696, 1752, 1804, 1861, 1919, 1976, 2035, 2093, 2142, 2198, 2256, 2309, 2373, 2433, 2486, 2540, 2594, 2652, 2698]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Social sciences", "average_usage"=>[340, 584, 708, 809, 915, 1005, 1089, 1174, 1254, 1334, 1408, 1478, 1563, 1648, 1716, 1791, 1847, 1915, 1979, 2044, 2105, 2163, 2218, 2297, 2382, 2436, 2493, 2553, 2618, 2682, 2741, 2786, 2847, 2937, 2989, 3039, 3102]}]}
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