Justice Blocks and Predictability of U.S. Supreme Court Votes
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{"title"=>"Justice blocks and predictability of U.S. supreme court votes", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Roger", "last_name"=>"Guimerà", "scopus_author_id"=>"6602739976"}, {"first_name"=>"Marta", "last_name"=>"Sales-Pardo", "scopus_author_id"=>"6505542891"}], "year"=>2011, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"scopus"=>"2-s2.0-80655132051", "pmid"=>"1000090690", "sgr"=>"80655132051", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0027188", "isbn"=>"0011-3891", "issn"=>"19326203", "pui"=>"362888168", "arxiv"=>"1203.2655"}, "id"=>"040be57d-0f20-3896-b0a0-d7732b079954", "abstract"=>"Successful attempts to predict judges' votes shed light into how legal decisions are made and, ultimately, into the behavior and evolution of the judiciary. Here, we investigate to what extent it is possible to make predictions of a justice's vote based on the other justices' votes in the same case. For our predictions, we use models and methods that have been developed to uncover hidden associations between actors in complex social networks. We show that these methods are more accurate at predicting justice's votes than forecasts made by legal experts and by algorithms that take into consideration the content of the cases. We argue that, within our framework, high predictability is a quantitative proxy for stable justice (and case) blocks, which probably reflect stable a priori attitudes toward the law. We find that U.S. Supreme Court justice votes are more predictable than one would expect from an ideal court composed of perfectly independent justices. Deviations from ideal behavior are most apparent in divided 5-4 decisions, where justice blocks seem to be most stable. Moreover, we find evidence that justice predictability decreased during the 50-year period spanning from the Warren Court to the Rehnquist Court, and that aggregate court predictability has been significantly lower during Democratic presidencies. More broadly, our results show that it is possible to use methods developed for the analysis of complex social networks to quantitatively investigate historical questions related to political decision-making.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/justice-blocks-predictability-supreme-court-votes", "reader_count"=>25, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Librarian"=>1, "Researcher"=>2, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>4, "Student > Master"=>4, "Other"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>2, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>3, "Professor"=>3}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Librarian"=>1, "Researcher"=>2, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>4, "Student > Master"=>4, "Other"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>2, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>3, "Professor"=>3}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Mathematics"=>2, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>1, "Arts and Humanities"=>1, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>1, "Physics and Astronomy"=>4, "Social Sciences"=>8, "Computer Science"=>4, "Decision Sciences"=>1, "Linguistics"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>1}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>8}, "Decision Sciences"=>{"Decision Sciences"=>1}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>4}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>1}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>4}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>1}, "Linguistics"=>{"Linguistics"=>1}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>2}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>1}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>1, "Germany"=>1, "Spain"=>1}, "group_count"=>1}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/714336"], "description"=>"<p>(A) The height of each bar indicates the average predictability of a court and its width the time span of the court. The color of the bar indicates the makeup of the court, with dark blue corresponding to a court with many Democrat–nominated justices, and dark red to a court with many Republican–nominated justices. (B) Cumulative distribution functions of the relative court predictability for courts that operated mostly under Democratic presidencies (blue) and Republican presidencies (red). The dashed lines indicate the means of the respective distributions.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["physics", "mathematics"], "article_id"=>384704, "categories"=>["Physics", "Mathematics"], "users"=>["Roger Guimerà", "Marta Sales-Pardo"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027188.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relative_court_predictability_/384704", "title"=>"Relative court predictability.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 11:50:23"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/714243"], "description"=>"<p>(A) Each line indicates the average relative predictability (that is, predictability according to the block model algorithm in the real court over the predictability in an equivalent ideal court) of a justice over their tenure, which is indicated by the length of the line. Red lines correspond to Republican–nominated justices and blue lines to Democrat–nominated justices. The background color indicates the party of the president. (B) Histogram of relative predictabilities. Bar colors indicate the fraction of Republican–nominated (red) and Democrat–nominated (blue) justices within each bin. (C) Relative predictability as a function of the nomination date of the judge. Relative predictability has significantly decreased during the period considered (p = 0.026, Spearman's rank correlation), as indicated by the dashed line (which is only shown as a guide to the eye).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["predictability", "supreme"], "article_id"=>384609, "categories"=>["Physics", "Mathematics"], "users"=>["Roger Guimerà", "Marta Sales-Pardo"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027188.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>6, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relative_predictability_of_individual_U_S_Supreme_Court_justices_/384609", "title"=>"Relative predictability of individual U.S. Supreme Court justices.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 11:49:53"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/714081"], "description"=>"<p>Each row represents the votes of the nine justices in a case (dark, agreement with the petitioner; bright, disagreement with the petitioner). We obtain the ideal court (right) from the real court (left) by randomly reshuffling, within each case, the votes of the justices so that the number of agreements and disagreements is preserved.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["physics", "mathematics"], "article_id"=>384445, "categories"=>["Physics", "Mathematics"], "users"=>["Roger Guimerà", "Marta Sales-Pardo"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027188.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>6, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Court_idealization_/384445", "title"=>"Court idealization.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 11:48:54"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/714162"], "description"=>"<p>Lines represent the moving average (with a window of 5 cases) of the average over courts for: (A–C) Ideal courts; (D–F) Real courts. (A, D) Predictability considering all decisions; (B, E) excluding unanimous and 8–1 decisions; (C, F) considering only 5–4 decisions.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["predictability", "supreme", "votes"], "article_id"=>384526, "categories"=>["Physics", "Mathematics"], "users"=>["Roger Guimerà", "Marta Sales-Pardo"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027188.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Average_predictability_of_U_S_Supreme_Court_votes_as_a_function_of_the_case_number_first_decision_of_the_court_second_decision_of_the_court_and_so_on_see_Methods_for_the_definition_of_predictability_/384526", "title"=>"Average predictability of U.S. Supreme Court votes as a function of the case number (first decision of the court, second decision of the court, and so on; see Methods for the definition of predictability).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 11:49:23"}

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Relative Metric

{"start_date"=>"2011-01-01T00:00:00Z", "end_date"=>"2011-12-31T00:00:00Z", "subject_areas"=>[{"subject_area"=>"/Computer and information sciences", "average_usage"=>[355, 609, 735, 840, 944, 1029, 1109, 1193, 1255, 1320, 1391, 1469, 1540, 1608, 1683, 1753, 1824, 1905, 1967, 2042, 2117, 2189, 2240, 2300, 2392, 2452, 2509, 2569, 2635, 2710, 2772, 2846, 2882, 2956, 3014, 3086, 3139]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Physical sciences/Mathematics", "average_usage"=>[347, 582, 700, 805, 909, 997, 1061, 1147, 1220, 1282, 1350, 1411, 1471, 1532, 1600, 1665, 1726, 1790, 1868, 1927, 1986, 2048, 2105, 2166, 2229, 2288, 2347, 2407, 2463, 2525, 2589, 2650, 2704, 2755, 2806, 2854, 2896]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Social sciences", "average_usage"=>[340, 584, 708, 809, 915, 1005, 1089, 1174, 1254, 1334, 1408, 1478, 1563, 1648, 1716, 1791, 1847, 1915, 1979, 2044, 2105, 2163, 2218, 2297, 2382, 2436, 2493, 2553, 2618, 2682, 2741, 2786, 2847, 2937, 2989, 3039, 3102]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Social sciences/Political science", "average_usage"=>[464, 1038, 1218, 1354, 1638, 1746, 1840, 1946, 2072, 2162, 2251, 2325, 2391, 2456, 2515, 2605, 2667, 2784, 2922, 3009, 3071, 3109, 3150, 3195, 3248, 3366, 3395, 3425, 3463, 3519, 3566, 3634, 3705, 3770, 3852, 3902, 4010, 4127, 4176]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Social sciences/Sociology", "average_usage"=>[426, 807, 983, 1078, 1202, 1297, 1394, 1505, 1611, 1713, 1819, 1918, 2007, 2092, 2190, 2261, 2341, 2445, 2522, 2612, 2692, 2754, 2830, 2908, 2987, 3076, 3157, 3246, 3319, 3431, 3527, 3602, 3670, 3725, 3772, 3821, 3879]}]}
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