Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change
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{"title"=>"Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in washington, dc and mid-atlantic states in response to climate change", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Uran", "last_name"=>"Chung", "scopus_author_id"=>"7006254021"}, {"first_name"=>"Liz", "last_name"=>"Mack", "scopus_author_id"=>"54407057500"}, {"first_name"=>"Jin I.", "last_name"=>"Yun", "scopus_author_id"=>"7201754012"}, {"first_name"=>"Soo Hyung", "last_name"=>"Kim", "scopus_author_id"=>"55989606900"}], "year"=>2011, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"pui"=>"362874724", "sgr"=>"80455126052", "issn"=>"19326203", "pmid"=>"22087317", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-80455126052", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0027439", "isbn"=>"1932-6203 (Electronic)\\r1932-6203 (Linking)"}, "id"=>"2d407c30-ddc0-3c64-ba86-cdcce07dec64", "abstract"=>"Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology model for temperate deciduous trees to predict peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees (Prunus×yedoensis 'Yoshino' and Prunus serrulata 'Kwanzan') in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC and the surrounding Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. We parameterized the model with observed PBD data from 1991 to 2010. The calibrated model was tested against independent datasets of the past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 in the Tidal Basin and more recent PBD data from other locations (e.g., Seattle, WA). The model performance against these independent data was satisfactory (Yoshino: r(2) = 0.57, RMSE = 6.6 days, bias = 0.9 days and Kwanzan: r(2) = 0.76, RMSE = 5.5 days, bias = -2.0 days). We then applied the model to forecast future PBD for the region using downscaled climate projections based on IPCC's A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model. The acceleration is likely to be much greater (13 days for 2050 s and 29 days for 2080s) under a higher (A2) emissions scenario projected by CGCM2 general circulation model. Our results demonstrate the potential impacts of climate change on the timing of cherry blossoms and illustrate the utility of a simple process-based phenology model for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in horticulture, conservation planning, restoration and other related disciplines.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/predicting-timing-cherry-blossoms-washington-dc-midatlantic-states-response-climate-change", "reader_count"=>53, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>3, "Librarian"=>1, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Researcher"=>16, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>8, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>9, "Other"=>2, "Student > Bachelor"=>10, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>3, "Librarian"=>1, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Researcher"=>16, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>8, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>9, "Other"=>2, "Student > Bachelor"=>10, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>5, "Engineering"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>15, "Mathematics"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>21, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>2, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>1, "Computer Science"=>2, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>3, "Chemical Engineering"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>2}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>3}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>21}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>2}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>1}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>5}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>15}, "Chemical Engineering"=>{"Chemical Engineering"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>2, "France"=>1}, "group_count"=>3}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/715687"], "description"=>"<p>Open circles represent past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 at the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC. Closed circles are PBD data of Project Budburst for Comer, GA, Germantown, TN, Bloomington, IN, for Yoshino and Charlotte, NC for Kwanzan. Cross symbols are recent PBD data at the University of Washington, Seattle, WA between 1994 and 2001.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["pbd", "sets", "yoshino", "kwanzan"], "article_id"=>386048, "categories"=>["Information And Computing Sciences", "Ecology", "Plant Biology"], "users"=>["Uran Chung", "Liz Mack", "Jin I. Yun", "Soo-Hyung Kim"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027439.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Model_performance_against_independent_PBD_data_sets_for_Yoshino_A_and_Kwanzan_B_/386048", "title"=>"Model performance against independent PBD data sets for Yoshino (A) and Kwanzan (B).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 11:57:56"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/715498"], "description"=>"<p>Floral buds must be exposed sequentially to long enough periods of chilling temperature (<i>R<sub>c</sub></i>) and heating temperature (<i>R<sub>h</sub></i>) for spring flowering.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["predicting", "flowering", "temperate", "deciduous"], "article_id"=>385857, "categories"=>["Information And Computing Sciences", "Ecology", "Plant Biology"], "users"=>["Uran Chung", "Liz Mack", "Jin I. Yun", "Soo-Hyung Kim"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027439.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Conceptual_model_for_predicting_flowering_date_in_temperate_zone_deciduous_trees_/385857", "title"=>"Conceptual model for predicting flowering date in temperate zone deciduous trees.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 11:56:47"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/715838"], "description"=>"<p>The past PBD from 1950 to 2000 (A), and the projected PBD for the three climatological normal years 2010–2039 (B and E), 2040–2069 (C and F), and 2070–2100 (D and G) are shown at 5-days intervals. The future projections were made under the IPCC SRES A1B (middle panels) and A2 (bottom panels) scenarios based on MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM2 general circulation models. Locations of the four cities in <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0027439#pone-0027439-t002\" target=\"_blank\">Table 2</a> are also shown.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["projected", "bloom", "dates", "yoshino", "cherry", "trees", "dc"], "article_id"=>386195, "categories"=>["Information And Computing Sciences", "Ecology", "Plant Biology"], "users"=>["Uran Chung", "Liz Mack", "Jin I. Yun", "Soo-Hyung Kim"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027439.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Past_and_projected_peak_bloom_dates_PBD_of_the_Yoshino_cherry_trees_in_Washington_DC_and_surrounding_area_/386195", "title"=>"Past and projected peak bloom dates (PBD) of the Yoshino cherry trees in Washington, DC and surrounding area.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 11:58:38"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/716024"], "description"=>"<p>The observed mean peak bloom dates during 1971–2000 at the Tidal Basin are April 2 for Yoshino and April 15 for Kwanzan during a time period under each sc. SD represents one standard deviation across different time periods within a scenario at each location, or across the four locations.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["bloom", "dates", "cherry", "trees", "mid-atlantic", "locations", "projected", "a1b", "a2", "scenarios", "mpi-echam5", "cccma-cgcm2", "circulation"], "article_id"=>386364, "categories"=>["Information And Computing Sciences", "Ecology", "Plant Biology"], "users"=>["Uran Chung", "Liz Mack", "Jin I. Yun", "Soo-Hyung Kim"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027439.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Predicted_mean_peak_bloom_dates_of_cherry_trees_Prunus_yedoensis_Yoshino_and_Prunus_serrulata_Kwanzan_at_selected_Mid_Atlantic_locations_in_response_to_the_projected_climate_under_the_A1B_and_A2_emission_scenarios_of_MPI_ECHAM5_and_CCCMA_CGCM2_general_ci/386364", "title"=>"Predicted mean peak bloom dates of cherry trees (<i>Prunus</i>×<i>yedoensis</i> ‘Yoshino’ and <i>Prunus serrulata</i> ‘Kwanzan’) at selected Mid-Atlantic locations in response to the projected climate under the A1B and A2 emission scenarios of MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM2 general circulation models, respectively, during 2010–2099.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 11:59:31"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/715970"], "description"=>"<p>Also included for comparison are the estimates for (<i>Prunus serrulata</i> var. <i>spontanea</i>) in Korea from Jung et al., (2006). <i>T<sub>c</sub></i> is represents the base threshold temperature, <i>R<sub>c</sub></i> is the is the required chilling units, and <i>R<sub>h</sub></i> is the required heating (anti-chill) units.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["estimates", "cherry", "cultivars"], "article_id"=>386332, "categories"=>["Information And Computing Sciences", "Ecology", "Plant Biology"], "users"=>["Uran Chung", "Liz Mack", "Jin I. Yun", "Soo-Hyung Kim"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027439.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Parameter_estimates_for_the_cherry_cultivars_used_in_the_study_/386332", "title"=>"Parameter estimates for the cherry cultivars used in the study.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 11:59:21"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/715549"], "description"=>"<p>Predicted PBD vs. observed PBD are shown in A (Yoshino) and C (Kwanzan). The temporal trends of PBD for the same period are shown in B (Yoshino) and D (Kwanzan). The observed PBD are represented by open cycles (○) with a solid line and the predicted PBD by cross symbol (×) with a dashed line.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["parameterization", "predicting", "bloom", "dates", "yoshino", "kwanzan", "cherry", "trees", "tidal", "dc"], "article_id"=>385904, "categories"=>["Information And Computing Sciences", "Ecology", "Plant Biology"], "users"=>["Uran Chung", "Liz Mack", "Jin I. Yun", "Soo-Hyung Kim"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027439.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Model_parameterization_results_for_predicting_peak_bloom_dates_PBD_of_Yoshino_A_B_and_Kwanzan_cherry_trees_C_D_in_the_Tidal_Basin_Washington_DC_during_1991_8211_2010_/385904", "title"=>"Model parameterization results for predicting peak bloom dates (PBD) of Yoshino (A, B) and Kwanzan cherry trees (C, D) in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC during 1991–2010.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-20 11:57:06"}

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Relative Metric

{"start_date"=>"2011-01-01T00:00:00Z", "end_date"=>"2011-12-31T00:00:00Z", "subject_areas"=>[{"subject_area"=>"/Biology and life sciences", "average_usage"=>[304, 568, 702, 818, 927, 1027, 1118, 1206, 1285, 1357, 1427, 1500, 1564, 1636, 1705, 1773, 1840, 1909, 1974, 2039, 2106, 2170, 2234, 2296, 2358, 2423, 2484, 2546, 2606, 2673, 2734, 2795, 2857, 2921, 2984, 3046, 3100]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Earth sciences/Atmospheric science", "average_usage"=>[321, 531, 657, 747, 853, 956, 1033, 1106, 1184, 1266, 1327, 1400, 1471, 1545, 1613, 1651, 1695, 1772, 1843, 1916, 1976, 2037, 2091, 2127, 2210, 2261, 2324, 2402, 2466, 2526, 2577, 2657, 2724, 2780, 2830, 2870, 2914]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Engineering and technology/Transportation", "average_usage"=>[407, 663, 767, 837, 914, 1006, 1103, 1156, 1205, 1245, 1295, 1345, 1397, 1460, 1554, 1611, 1684, 1737, 1772, 1799, 1834, 1862, 1926, 1984, 2042, 2099, 2144, 2213, 2471, 2500, 2617, 2650, 2691, 2727, 2763, 2809, 2862]}]}
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