Estimating Coextinction Risks from Epidemic Tree Death: Affiliate Lichen Communities among Diseased Host Tree Populations of Fraxinus excelsior
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{"title"=>"Estimating Coextinction Risks from Epidemic Tree Death: Affiliate Lichen Communities among Diseased Host Tree Populations of Fraxinus excelsior", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Mari T.", "last_name"=>"Jönsson", "scopus_author_id"=>"57198379144"}, {"first_name"=>"Göran", "last_name"=>"Thor", "scopus_author_id"=>"55903458600"}], "year"=>2012, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"isbn"=>"1932-6203", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84866674681", "pui"=>"365720828", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0045701", "issn"=>"19326203", "pmid"=>"23049840", "sgr"=>"84866674681"}, "id"=>"1c3843b1-f54c-3b6c-8eb0-331f6071769a", "abstract"=>"At least 10% of the world's tree species are threatened with extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated in tree threats. Coextinction and threats to affiliates as a consequence of the loss or decline of their host trees is a poorly understood phenomenon. Ash dieback is an emerging infectious disease causing severe dieback of common ash Fraxinus excelsior throughout Europe. We utilized available empirical data on affiliate epiphytic lichen diversity (174 species and 17,800 observations) among 20 ash dieback infected host tree populations of F. excelsior on the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. From this, we used structured scenario projections scaled with empirical data of ash dieback disease to generate probabilistic models for estimating local and regional lichen coextinction risks. Average coextinction probabilities (Ā) were 0.38 (95% CI ± 0.09) for lichens occurring on F. excelsior and 0.14 (95% CI ± 0.03) when considering lichen persistence on all tree species. Ā was strongly linked to local disease incidence levels and generally increasing with lichen host specificity to F. excelsior and decreasing population size. Coextinctions reduced affiliate community viability, with significant local reductions in species richness and shifts in lichen species composition. Affiliates were projected to become locally extirpated before their hosts, illuminating the need to also consider host tree declines. Traditionally managed open wooded meadows had the highest incidence of ash dieback disease and significantly higher proportions of affiliate species projected to go extinct, compared with unmanaged closed forests and semi-open grazed sites. Most cothreatened species were not previously red-listed, which suggest that tree epidemics cause many unforeseen threats to species. Our analysis shows that epidemic tree deaths represent an insidious, mostly overlooked, threat to sessile affiliate communities in forested environments. Current conservation and management strategies must account for secondary extinctions associated with epidemic tree death.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/estimating-coextinction-risks-epidemic-tree-death-affiliate-lichen-communities-among-diseased-host-t", "reader_count"=>52, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>15, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>12, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Other"=>4, "Student > Master"=>6, "Student > Bachelor"=>8, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>15, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>12, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Other"=>4, "Student > Master"=>6, "Student > Bachelor"=>8, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Environmental Science"=>10, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>38, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>38}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>10}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Belgium"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>1, "Italy"=>1, "Mexico"=>1, "Chile"=>1, "Switzerland"=>2, "Indonesia"=>2}, "group_count"=>2}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/569932"], "description"=>"<p>The curves show the cumulative probability that the proportion of species remaining in the community falls below a certain proportion of the original species following the most optimistic (a) and the most likely scenario (b) of ash dieback mortality. Each curve is computed from 100 replicate communities. Remaining communities fall within the current range, but are not shown to ease visual interpretation.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["curves", "lichen", "communities", "subjected"], "article_id"=>240429, "categories"=>["Plant Biology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Mari T. Jönsson", "Göran Thor"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045701.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Risk_curves_for_seven_local_lichen_communities_on_F_excelsior_subjected_to_ash_dieback_/240429", "title"=>"Risk curves for seven local lichen communities on <i>F. excelsior</i> subjected to ash dieback.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-09-25 00:07:09"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/569709"], "description"=>"<p>(a) <i>S<sub>e</sub></i> as a function of the fraction of host trees infected at each study site, given mortality permutations of 2009 levels of dead and dying <i>F. excelsior</i> (unfilled; optimistic scenario) and all infected <i>F. excelsior</i> (filled; likely scenario). Squares represent <i>S<sub>e</sub></i> among lichen communities on ash <i>F. excelsior</i> and triangles represent <i>S<sub>e</sub></i> among lichen communities on all tree species. (b) Average proportion of affiliate lichen species projected to go extinct (<i>S<sub>e</sub></i>) in each management category under the most likely scenario.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["affiliate", "lichen", "projected", "extinct"], "article_id"=>240209, "categories"=>["Plant Biology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Mari T. Jönsson", "Göran Thor"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045701.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Average_proportion_of_affiliate_lichen_species_projected_to_go_extinct_S_e_/240209", "title"=>"Average proportion of affiliate lichen species projected to go extinct (<i>S<sub>e</sub></i>).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-09-25 00:03:29"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/569837"], "description"=>"<p>Average ANOSIM R values for comparison between 20 unaffected pre-epidemic local lichen species composition on <i>F. excelsior</i> tree populations and projected assemblages subjected to optimistic and likely tree mortality perturbations. Data represent average R values of 100 projections for each study site. R-values around 0.5 (above the dashed line) indicate clear differences in species composition between groups.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["dieback", "infected", "populations"], "article_id"=>240335, "categories"=>["Plant Biology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Mari T. Jönsson", "Göran Thor"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045701.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Lichen_species_composition_among_ash_dieback_infected_host_tree_populations_of_F_excelsior_/240335", "title"=>"Lichen species composition among ash dieback infected host tree populations of <i>F. excelsior</i>.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-09-25 00:05:35"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/570028"], "description"=>"<p>(a) <i>Ā</i> for all 174 affiliate lichen species at the most optimistic and the most likely scenarios of ash dieback disease, and (b) for the 23 lichen species currently red-listed in Sweden <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0045701#pone.0045701-Grdenfors1\" target=\"_blank\">[21]</a>. Beta regression model results for these relationships are shown in <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0045701#pone-0045701-t002\" target=\"_blank\">Table 2</a>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["coextinction", "probabilities"], "article_id"=>240523, "categories"=>["Plant Biology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Mari T. Jönsson", "Göran Thor"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045701.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>2, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Projected_average_coextinction_probabilities_256_as_a_function_of_host_specificity_/240523", "title"=>"Projected average coextinction probabilities (<i>Ā</i>) as a function of host specificity.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-09-25 00:08:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/570100"], "description"=>"<p>Beta regression models explaining average coextinction probabilities (<i>Ā)</i> of 174 lichen species occurring on trees (all tree species included) in 20 wooded stands affected by ash dieback disease, under the most optimistic scenario and the most likely scenario of <i>F. excelsior</i> tree death. Beta regression explaining average site-level proportions of extinct lichen species (<i>S<sub>e</sub></i>) on all trees in relation to site management category.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["regression", "coextinction", "probabilities"], "article_id"=>240599, "categories"=>["Plant Biology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Mari T. Jönsson", "Göran Thor"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045701.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Beta_regression_model_results_of_average_coextinction_probabilities_256_/240599", "title"=>"Beta regression model results of average coextinction probabilities (<i>Ā)</i>.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2012-09-25 00:09:59"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/302008", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/302033"], "description"=>"<div><p>At least 10% of the world’s tree species are threatened with extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated in tree threats. Coextinction and threats to affiliates as a consequence of the loss or decline of their host trees is a poorly understood phenomenon. Ash dieback is an emerging infectious disease causing severe dieback of common ash <em>Fraxinus excelsior</em> throughout Europe. We utilized available empirical data on affiliate epiphytic lichen diversity (174 species and 17,800 observations) among 20 ash dieback infected host tree populations of <em>F. excelsior</em> on the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. From this, we used structured scenario projections scaled with empirical data of ash dieback disease to generate probabilistic models for estimating local and regional lichen coextinction risks. Average coextinction probabilities (<em>Ā</em>) were 0.38 (95% CI ±0.09) for lichens occurring on <em>F. excelsior</em> and 0.14 (95% CI ±0.03) when considering lichen persistence on all tree species. <em>Ā</em> was strongly linked to local disease incidence levels and generally increasing with lichen host specificity to <em>F. excelsior</em> and decreasing population size. Coextinctions reduced affiliate community viability, with significant local reductions in species richness and shifts in lichen species composition. Affiliates were projected to become locally extirpated before their hosts, illuminating the need to also consider host tree declines. Traditionally managed open wooded meadows had the highest incidence of ash dieback disease and significantly higher proportions of affiliate species projected to go extinct, compared with unmanaged closed forests and semi-open grazed sites. Most cothreatened species were not previously red-listed, which suggest that tree epidemics cause many unforeseen threats to species. Our analysis shows that epidemic tree deaths represent an insidious, mostly overlooked, threat to sessile affiliate communities in forested environments. Current conservation and management strategies must account for secondary extinctions associated with epidemic tree death.</p> </div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["estimating", "coextinction", "risks", "affiliate", "lichen", "communities", "diseased", "populations"], "article_id"=>119557, "categories"=>["Cell Biology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Mari T. Jönsson", "Göran Thor"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045701.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045701.s002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>7, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Estimating_Coextinction_Risks_from_Epidemic_Tree_Death_Affiliate_Lichen_Communities_among_Diseased_Host_Tree_Populations_of_Fraxinus_excelsior_/119557", "title"=>"Estimating Coextinction Risks from Epidemic Tree Death: Affiliate Lichen Communities among Diseased Host Tree Populations of <em>Fraxinus excelsior</em>", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2012-09-25 02:39:17"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/569566"], "description"=>"<p>Coextinction and community viability is primarily influenced by host trees, affiliate species, and their interactions. These variables are in turn influenced by several factors (see text). The left photo show an ash dieback diseased tree (classified as dying) surrounded by healthy <i>F. excelsior</i> on Gotland Island in 2009.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["conceptual", "components", "influencing", "affiliate", "coextinction", "viability", "adapted", "moir"], "article_id"=>240051, "categories"=>["Plant Biology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Mari T. Jönsson", "Göran Thor"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045701.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_A_conceptual_framework_for_the_components_influencing_affiliate_coextinction_and_community_viability_during_tree_epidemics_adapted_after_Moir_et_al_20_/240051", "title"=>"A conceptual framework for the components influencing affiliate coextinction and community viability during tree epidemics, adapted after Moir <i>et al.</i>[20].", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-09-25 00:00:51"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/570125"], "description"=>"<p>Site-level pre-epidemic lichen community values from inventories in 1989–1991; showing the number of <i>Fraxinus excelsior</i> trees inventoried for lichens, species richness (S.R.) and abundance values (No. of Ind.) of all lichens and red-listed species, respectively. Stand characteristics for each site and management category; showing stand size (ha), percentage values of canopy closure, fraction of <i>F. excelsior</i> population with signs of recent pollarding (pollarded within the last two decades), and percentage tree species composition. Projected post-epidemic site-level lichen community values; showing the percentage of the <i>F. excelsior</i> population classified as dead or dying (optimistic scenario) and infected (likely scenario), average ANOSIM R values comparing pre-epidemic and projected post-epidemic local lichen species composition on <i>F. excelsior</i> tree populations, the projected probability values of no local coextinctions (Res) and the average percentage of extinct species (<i>S<sub>e</sub></i> ) among <i>F. excelsior</i> tree populations and all tree species in the respective post-epidemic community.</p>*<p>bonferroni-corrected <i>p</i><0.05, ** b.f. <i>p</i><0.001 <sup>1</sup>the probability of no coextinctions and <sup>2</sup>the average proportion (%) of extinct species (<i>S<sub>e</sub></i>) on ash <i>F. excelsior</i> in the post-epidemic community <sup>3</sup>the probability of no coextinctions and <sup>4</sup>the average proportion (%) of extinct species (<i>S<sub>e</sub></i>) when including occurrences on all tree species.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["characteristics", "20", "wooded", "sites"], "article_id"=>240626, "categories"=>["Plant Biology", "Evolutionary Biology"], "users"=>["Mari T. Jönsson", "Göran Thor"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045701.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Lichen_community_values_and_stand_characteristics_of_the_20_wooded_study_sites_on_Gotland_Sweden_/240626", "title"=>"Lichen community values and stand characteristics of the 20 wooded study sites on Gotland, Sweden.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2012-09-25 00:10:26"}

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Relative Metric

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