Projecting Range Limits with Coupled Thermal Tolerance - Climate Change Models: An Example Based on Gray Snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. East Coast
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{"title"=>"Projecting Range Limits with Coupled Thermal Tolerance - Climate Change Models: An Example Based on Gray Snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. East Coast", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Jonathan A.", "last_name"=>"Hare", "scopus_author_id"=>"7202170172"}, {"first_name"=>"Mark J.", "last_name"=>"Wuenschel", "scopus_author_id"=>"6506249316"}, {"first_name"=>"Matthew E.", "last_name"=>"Kimball", "scopus_author_id"=>"7004702351"}], "year"=>2012, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84871435047", "sgr"=>"84871435047", "issn"=>"19326203", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0052294", "pmid"=>"23284974", "pui"=>"366319195"}, "id"=>"b4511300-2955-3ab5-8896-ad89ed7ebf30", "abstract"=>"We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/projecting-range-limits-coupled-thermal-tolerance-climate-change-models-example-based-gray-snapper-l", "reader_count"=>20, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>5, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>5, "Student > Master"=>4, "Other"=>3, "Student > Bachelor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>5, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>5, "Student > Master"=>4, "Other"=>3, "Student > Bachelor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>3, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>15}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>15}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>1}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>3}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>1, "Mexico"=>1, "Spain"=>1}, "group_count"=>1}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/521231"], "description"=>"<p>The gray line and shading represent the thermal tolerance metric and 95% confidence intervals for gray snapper juveniles as determined from an experimental study <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294#pone.0052294-Wuenschel1\" target=\"_blank\">[39]</a>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["latitude", "thermal", "metrics", "a1b"], "article_id"=>191725, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Jonathan A. Hare", "Mark J. Wuenschel", "Matthew E. Kimball"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Estimated_latitude_of_thermal_tolerance_metrics_under_the_A1B_emission_scenario_at_three_time_periods_/191725", "title"=>"Estimated latitude of thermal tolerance metrics under the A1B emission scenario at three time periods.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-19 18:19:55"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/520779"], "description"=>"<p>Color-coding for sites is based on latitude (red more southern, blue more northern). Full list of sites is provided in <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294#pone.0052294-Wuenschel1\" target=\"_blank\">[39] </a><a href=\"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2012.08.012\" target=\"_blank\">http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2012.08.012</a>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["estuarine", "locations", "observed", "records", "projections"], "article_id"=>191262, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Jonathan A. Hare", "Mark J. Wuenschel", "Matthew E. Kimball"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Map_showing_estuarine_locations_from_which_observed_temperature_records_were_used_and_for_which_projections_were_made_for_winter_estuarine_water_temperatures_/191262", "title"=>"Map showing estuarine locations from which observed temperature records were used and for which projections were made for winter estuarine water temperatures.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-19 18:17:11"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/521612"], "description"=>"<p>Value calculated by dividing sums of squares from a general linear model by the total error.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["variance", "snapper", "attributable"], "article_id"=>192105, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Jonathan A. Hare", "Mark J. Wuenschel", "Matthew E. Kimball"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294.t003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Percent_variance_in_estimate_of_gray_snapper_northern_range_attributable_to_different_factors_/192105", "title"=>"Percent variance in estimate of gray snapper northern range attributable to different factors.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-02-19 18:22:10"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/521586"], "description"=>"<p>Three CO<sub>2</sub> emission scenarios from 14 GCMs were used. Data were obtained from the Model and Data Group (M&D) at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (<a href=\"http://www.mad.zmaw.de/IPCC_DDC/html/SRES_AR4/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.mad.zmaw.de/IPCC_DDC/html/SRES_AR4/index.html</a>).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["circulation", "models", "modeling"], "article_id"=>192084, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Jonathan A. Hare", "Mark J. Wuenschel", "Matthew E. Kimball"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_List_of_general_circulation_models_GCMs_used_in_this_study_and_their_associated_modeling_centers_/192084", "title"=>"List of general circulation models (GCMs) used in this study and their associated modeling centers.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-02-19 18:22:01"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/521010"], "description"=>"<p>Gray line represents observations, orange line represents projections under the commit scenario (350 ppm CO<sub>2</sub> by 2100), blue line represents projections under the B1 scenario (550 ppm CO<sub>2</sub> by 2100), and the green line represents projections under the A1B scenario (720 ppm CO<sub>2</sub> by 2100). A 40 year LOWESS filter (tension = 0.25) of the mean annual projections from 14 general circulation models is displayed (see <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294#pone-0052294-t001\" target=\"_blank\">Table 1</a>). Shading represents standard error around mean. Observed and projected thermal tolerance metrics were blended over the period 2001 to 2010; the blended value in 2005 is 0.5 * observed +0.5 * projected.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["metrics", "estuaries", "united", "states", "cumulative", "days", "estuarine"], "article_id"=>191502, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Jonathan A. Hare", "Mark J. Wuenschel", "Matthew E. Kimball"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Projections_of_winter_temperature_metrics_at_four_estuaries_along_the_east_coast_of_the_United_States_metrics_minimum_mean_monthly_winter_air_temperature_cumulative_degree_days_lt_17_176_C_and_minimum_daily_estuarine_water_temperature_/191502", "title"=>"Projections of winter temperature metrics at four estuaries along the east coast of the United States (metrics: minimum mean monthly winter air temperature, cumulative degree days <17°C, and minimum daily estuarine water temperature).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-19 18:18:26"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/521509"], "description"=>"<p>Change in projected cumulative degree days <17°C (dark line) and change in minimum daily temperature (gray line) by latitude under the A1B scenario comparing 1980–2000 and 2080–2100.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["projected", "cumulative", "days", "latitude", "a1b", "comparing"], "article_id"=>192002, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Jonathan A. Hare", "Mark J. Wuenschel", "Matthew E. Kimball"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294.g008", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Change_in_projected_cumulative_degree_days_lt_17_176_C_dark_line_and_change_in_minimum_daily_temperature_gray_line_by_latitude_under_the_A1B_scenario_comparing_1980_8211_2000_and_2080_8211_2100_/192002", "title"=>"Change in projected cumulative degree days <17°C (dark line) and change in minimum daily temperature (gray line) by latitude under the A1B scenario comparing 1980–2000 and 2080–2100.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-19 18:21:33"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/520909"], "description"=>"<p>Points represent winter temperatures in a given year in a given estuary. Estuarine water temperatures are expressed as (A) cumulative degree days <17°C and (B) minimum daily winter temperature (Dec-Mar). Air temperature is expressed as minimum monthly mean winter temperature. Gray line represents the least squares regression fit based on eq. 3. Color of the symbol represents the latitude of the source estuary for the water temperature data (see <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294#pone-0052294-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Figure 1</a>).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["12", "estuaries", "united"], "article_id"=>191408, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Jonathan A. Hare", "Mark J. Wuenschel", "Matthew E. Kimball"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>2, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relations_between_winter_water_temperature_and_air_temperature_in_12_estuaries_along_the_east_coast_of_the_United_States_/191408", "title"=>"Relations between winter water temperature and air temperature in 12 estuaries along the east coast of the United States.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-19 18:17:55"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/521135"], "description"=>"<p>The gray line and shading represent the thermal tolerance metric and 95% confidence intervals for gray snapper juveniles as determined from an experimental study <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294#pone.0052294-Wuenschel1\" target=\"_blank\">[39]</a>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["latitude", "thermal", "metrics"], "article_id"=>191630, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Jonathan A. Hare", "Mark J. Wuenschel", "Matthew E. Kimball"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Estimated_latitude_of_thermal_tolerance_metrics_in_2080_8211_2100_under_three_climate_change_emission_scenarios_/191630", "title"=>"Estimated latitude of thermal tolerance metrics in 2080–2100 under three climate change emission scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-19 18:19:19"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/521439"], "description"=>"<p>Results for each of the 14 GCMs are provided to present the range of projections that compose the ensemble. The heavy and light gray lines represent the estimate of current northern range limit and standard error as determined from field observations <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294#pone.0052294-Wuenschel1\" target=\"_blank\">[39]</a>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["snapper", "periods"], "article_id"=>191938, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Jonathan A. Hare", "Mark J. Wuenschel", "Matthew E. Kimball"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294.g007", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>6, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Estimated_northern_range_limit_of_gray_snapper_during_two_time_periods_and_under_three_emission_scenarios_/191938", "title"=>"Estimated northern range limit of gray snapper during two time periods and under three emission scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-19 18:21:09"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/521642"], "description"=>"<p>Summary of the notation used for variables and equations.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["notation", "variables"], "article_id"=>192138, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Jonathan A. Hare", "Mark J. Wuenschel", "Matthew E. Kimball"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Summary_of_the_notation_used_for_variables_and_equations_/192138", "title"=>"Summary of the notation used for variables and equations.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-02-19 18:22:20"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/521313"], "description"=>"<p>The heavy and light gray lines represent the estimate of current northern range limit and standard error as determined from field observations <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294#pone.0052294-Wuenschel1\" target=\"_blank\">[39]</a>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["snapper", "periods"], "article_id"=>191809, "categories"=>["Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Jonathan A. Hare", "Mark J. Wuenschel", "Matthew E. Kimball"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052294.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Estimated_northern_range_limit_of_gray_snapper_during_three_time_periods_and_under_three_emission_scenarios_/191809", "title"=>"Estimated northern range limit of gray snapper during three time periods and under three emission scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-19 18:20:23"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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  • {"unique-ip"=>"2", "full-text"=>"2", "pdf"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"3"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"3", "full-text"=>"2", "pdf"=>"1", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"4"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"4", "full-text"=>"4", "pdf"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"5"}

Relative Metric

{"start_date"=>"2012-01-01T00:00:00Z", "end_date"=>"2012-12-31T00:00:00Z", "subject_areas"=>[{"subject_area"=>"/Earth sciences", "average_usage"=>[368, 548, 649, 749, 833, 915, 993, 1071, 1153, 1240, 1315, 1388, 1456, 1520, 1597, 1673, 1747, 1826, 1892, 1975, 2036, 2101, 2178, 2256, 2319]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Earth sciences/Atmospheric science", "average_usage"=>[340, 544, 651, 735, 812, 877, 956, 1034, 1116, 1186, 1252, 1330, 1407, 1466, 1536, 1588, 1645, 1717, 1782, 1877, 1950, 2000, 2076, 2135, 2179]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Earth sciences/Geography", "average_usage"=>[335, 517, 611, 697, 777, 866, 931, 1004, 1074, 1183, 1251, 1324, 1396, 1474, 1553, 1608, 1670, 1744, 1819, 1875, 1930, 2011, 2092, 2162, 2218]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Earth sciences/Marine and aquatic sciences", "average_usage"=>[356, 537, 639, 726, 807, 879, 949, 1022, 1106, 1179, 1245, 1302, 1376, 1439, 1502, 1575, 1648, 1720, 1800, 1848, 1914, 1988, 2050, 2123, 2179]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Ecology and environmental sciences/Ecology", "average_usage"=>[347, 547, 641, 742, 836, 927, 1016, 1099, 1184, 1267, 1348, 1418, 1484, 1555, 1631, 1705, 1788, 1843, 1917, 1985, 2052, 2115, 2190, 2258, 2333]}, {"subject_area"=>"/Physical sciences/Chemistry", "average_usage"=>[302, 508, 622, 720, 804, 888, 973, 1054, 1141, 1219, 1299, 1370, 1442, 1511, 1574, 1644, 1711, 1782, 1846, 1911, 1971, 2030, 2097, 2155, 2217]}]}
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