How the Polls Can Be Both Spot On and Dead Wrong: Using Choice Blindness to Shift Political Attitudes and Voter Intentions
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{"title"=>"How the Polls Can Be Both Spot On and Dead Wrong: Using Choice Blindness to Shift Political Attitudes and Voter Intentions", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Lars", "last_name"=>"Hall", "scopus_author_id"=>"9237885700"}, {"first_name"=>"Thomas", "last_name"=>"Strandberg", "scopus_author_id"=>"57197942562"}, {"first_name"=>"Philip", "last_name"=>"Pärnamets", "scopus_author_id"=>"55918105000"}, {"first_name"=>"Andreas", "last_name"=>"Lind", "scopus_author_id"=>"15136233600"}, {"first_name"=>"Betty", "last_name"=>"Tärning", "scopus_author_id"=>"15137425800"}, {"first_name"=>"Petter", "last_name"=>"Johansson", "scopus_author_id"=>"9237885600"}], "year"=>2013, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"19326203", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84876014742", "sgr"=>"84876014742", "pui"=>"368705922", "isbn"=>"1932-6203", "pmid"=>"23593244", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0060554"}, "id"=>"045957ec-1417-3a58-af3f-ae09c6d2fcd5", "abstract"=>"Political candidates often believe they must focus their campaign efforts on a small number of swing voters open for ideological change. Based on the wisdom of opinion polls, this might seem like a good idea. But do most voters really hold their political attitudes so firmly that they are unreceptive to persuasion? We tested this premise during the most recent general election in Sweden, in which a left- and a right-wing coalition were locked in a close race. We asked our participants to state their voter intention, and presented them with a political survey of wedge issues between the two coalitions. Using a sleight-of-hand we then altered their replies to place them in the opposite political camp, and invited them to reason about their attitudes on the manipulated issues. Finally, we summarized their survey score, and asked for their voter intention again. The results showed that no more than 22% of the manipulated replies were detected, and that a full 92% of the participants accepted and endorsed our altered political survey score. Furthermore, the final voter intention question indicated that as many as 48% (±9.2%) were willing to consider a left-right coalition shift. This can be contrasted with the established polls tracking the Swedish election, which registered maximally 10% voters open for a swing. Our results indicate that political attitudes and partisan divisions can be far more flexible than what is assumed by the polls, and that people can reason about the factual issues of the campaign with considerable openness to change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/polls-both-spot-dead-wrong-using-choice-blindness-shift-political-attitudes-voter-intentions", "reader_count"=>67, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Researcher"=>12, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>14, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>15, "Other"=>4, "Student > Bachelor"=>10, "Lecturer"=>3, "Professor"=>4}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Researcher"=>12, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>14, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>15, "Other"=>4, "Student > Bachelor"=>10, "Lecturer"=>3, "Professor"=>4}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>7, "Philosophy"=>1, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>1, "Computer Science"=>2, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>1, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>4, "Neuroscience"=>1, "Design"=>1, "Physics and Astronomy"=>1, "Psychology"=>31, "Social Sciences"=>9, "Linguistics"=>5}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>4}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>9}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>1}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>31}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>2}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>1}, "Design"=>{"Design"=>1}, "Neuroscience"=>{"Neuroscience"=>1}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>7}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>2}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>1}, "Linguistics"=>{"Linguistics"=>5}, "Philosophy"=>{"Philosophy"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Austria"=>1, "United States"=>4, "Luxembourg"=>1, "Japan"=>1, "Brazil"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>2, "Australia"=>2, "Portugal"=>1, "Germany"=>1, "Spain"=>1}, "group_count"=>3}

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Figshare

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  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1020695"], "description"=>"<p><b>A.</b> Participants indicate the direction and strength of their voting intention for the upcoming election, and rate to what extent they agree with 12 statements that differentiates between the two political coalitions. Meanwhile, the experimenter monitors the markings of the participants and creates an alternative answering profile favoring the opposite view. <b>B.</b> The experimenter hides his alternative profile under his notebook. <b>C.</b> When the participants have completed the questionnaire, they hand it back to the experimenter. The backside of the profile is prepared with an adhesive, and when the experimenter places the notebook over the questionnaire it attaches and occludes the section containing the original ratings. <b>D.</b> Next, the participants are confronted with the reversed answers, and are asked to justify the manipulated opinions. <b>E.</b> Then the experimenter adds a color-coded semi-transparent coalition template, and sums up which side the participants favor. <b>F.</b> Finally, they are asked to justify their aggregate position, and once again indicate the direction and strength of their current voting intention. See <a href=\"http://www.lucs.lu.se/cbp\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.lucs.lu.se/cbp</a> for a video illustration of the experiment.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["neuroscience", "Cognitive neuroscience", "cognition", "consciousness", "Decision making", "working memory", "Learning and memory", "communications", "Political science", "Democracy", "elections", "Public opinion", "psychology", "behavior", "Attention (behavior)", "Verbal behavior", "Cognitive psychology", "memory", "reasoning", "recall", "Applied psychology", "Experimental psychology", "neuropsychology", "Social psychology", "Sociology", "step-by-step", "manipulation"], "article_id"=>679558, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Lars Hall", "Thomas Strandberg", "Philip Pärnamets", "Andreas Lind", "Betty Tärning", "Petter Johansson"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060554.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>7, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_A_step_by_step_demonstration_of_the_manipulation_procedure_/679558", "title"=>"A step-by-step demonstration of the manipulation procedure.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-04-10 02:39:18"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1020700", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1020702", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1020703", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1020705"], "description"=>"<div><p>Political candidates often believe they must focus their campaign efforts on a small number of swing voters open for ideological change. Based on the wisdom of opinion polls, this might seem like a good idea. But do most voters really hold their political attitudes so firmly that they are unreceptive to persuasion? We tested this premise during the most recent general election in Sweden, in which a left- and a right-wing coalition were locked in a close race. We asked our participants to state their voter intention, and presented them with a political survey of wedge issues between the two coalitions. Using a sleight-of-hand we then altered their replies to place them in the opposite political camp, and invited them to reason about their attitudes on the manipulated issues. Finally, we summarized their survey score, and asked for their voter intention again. The results showed that no more than 22% of the manipulated replies were detected, and that a full 92% of the participants accepted and endorsed our altered political survey score. Furthermore, the final voter intention question indicated that as many as 48% (±9.2%) were willing to consider a left-right coalition shift. This can be contrasted with the established polls tracking the Swedish election, which registered maximally 10% voters open for a swing. Our results indicate that political attitudes and partisan divisions can be far more flexible than what is assumed by the polls, and that people can reason about the factual issues of the campaign with considerable openness to change.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["neuroscience", "Cognitive neuroscience", "cognition", "consciousness", "Decision making", "working memory", "Learning and memory", "communications", "Political science", "Democracy", "elections", "Public opinion", "psychology", "behavior", "Attention (behavior)", "Verbal behavior", "Cognitive psychology", "memory", "reasoning", "recall", "Applied psychology", "Experimental psychology", "neuropsychology", "Social psychology", "Sociology", "polls", "blindness", "attitudes"], "article_id"=>679563, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Lars Hall", "Thomas Strandberg", "Philip Pärnamets", "Andreas Lind", "Betty Tärning", "Petter Johansson"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060554.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060554.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060554.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060554.s004"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>31, "page_views"=>56, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_How_the_Polls_Can_Be_Both_Spot_On_and_Dead_Wrong_Using_Choice_Blindness_to_Shift_Political_Attitudes_and_Voter_Intentions_/679563", "title"=>"How the Polls Can Be Both Spot On and Dead Wrong: Using Choice Blindness to Shift Political Attitudes and Voter Intentions", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-04-10 02:39:23"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1020699"], "description"=>"<p>The “Election Compass” with statements describing issues that divide the two coalitions.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["neuroscience", "Cognitive neuroscience", "cognition", "consciousness", "Decision making", "working memory", "Learning and memory", "communications", "Political science", "Democracy", "elections", "Public opinion", "psychology", "behavior", "Attention (behavior)", "Verbal behavior", "Cognitive psychology", "memory", "reasoning", "recall", "Applied psychology", "Experimental psychology", "neuropsychology", "Social psychology", "Sociology", "statements", "describing", "issues"], "article_id"=>679562, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Lars Hall", "Thomas Strandberg", "Philip Pärnamets", "Andreas Lind", "Betty Tärning", "Petter Johansson"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060554.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_The_8220_Election_Compass_8221_with_statements_describing_issues_that_divide_the_two_coalitions_/679562", "title"=>"The “Election Compass” with statements describing issues that divide the two coalitions.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-04-10 02:39:22"}

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