Development and Validation of a Risk Score Predicting Substantial Weight Gain over 5 Years in Middle-Aged European Men and Women
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Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"Development and Validation of a Risk Score Predicting Substantial Weight Gain over 5 Years in Middle-Aged European Men and Women", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Annika", "last_name"=>"Steffen"}, {"first_name"=>"Thorkild I A.", "last_name"=>"Sørensen"}, {"first_name"=>"Sven", "last_name"=>"Knüppel"}, {"first_name"=>"Noemie", "last_name"=>"Travier"}, {"first_name"=>"María-José", "last_name"=>"Sánchez"}, {"first_name"=>"José María", "last_name"=>"Huerta"}, {"first_name"=>"J. Ramón", "last_name"=>"Quirós"}, {"first_name"=>"Eva", "last_name"=>"Ardanaz"}, {"first_name"=>"Miren", "last_name"=>"Dorronsoro"}, {"first_name"=>"Birgit", "last_name"=>"Teucher"}, {"first_name"=>"Kuanrong", "last_name"=>"Li"}, {"first_name"=>"H. Bas", "last_name"=>"Bueno-de-Mesquita"}, {"first_name"=>"Daphne", "last_name"=>"van der A"}, {"first_name"=>"Amalia", "last_name"=>"Mattiello"}, {"first_name"=>"Domenico", "last_name"=>"Palli"}, {"first_name"=>"Rosario", "last_name"=>"Tumino"}, {"first_name"=>"Vittorio", "last_name"=>"Krogh"}, {"first_name"=>"Paolo", "last_name"=>"Vineis"}, {"first_name"=>"Antonia", "last_name"=>"Trichopoulou"}, {"first_name"=>"Philippos", "last_name"=>"Orfanos"}, {"first_name"=>"Dimitrios", "last_name"=>"Trichopoulos"}, {"first_name"=>"Bo", "last_name"=>"Hedblad"}, {"first_name"=>"Peter", "last_name"=>"Wallström"}, {"first_name"=>"Kim", "last_name"=>"Overvad"}, {"first_name"=>"Jytte", "last_name"=>"Halkjær"}, {"first_name"=>"Anne", "last_name"=>"Tjønneland"}, {"first_name"=>"Guy", "last_name"=>"Fagherazzi"}, {"first_name"=>"Laureen", "last_name"=>"Dartois"}, {"first_name"=>"Francesca", "last_name"=>"Crowe"}, {"first_name"=>"Kay-Tee", "last_name"=>"Khaw"}, {"first_name"=>"Nick", "last_name"=>"Wareham"}, {"first_name"=>"Lefkos", "last_name"=>"Middleton"}, {"first_name"=>"Anne M.", "last_name"=>"May"}, {"first_name"=>"Petra H. M.", "last_name"=>"Peeters"}, {"first_name"=>"Heiner", "last_name"=>"Boeing"}], "year"=>2013, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"pmid"=>"23874419", "isbn"=>"2005513946", "issn"=>"1932-6203", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0067429"}, "id"=>"87feceeb-1686-38f6-8173-2cf79ddc15b2", "abstract"=>"BACKGROUND: Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population.\\n\\nMETHODS: We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample).\\n\\nRESULTS: Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively.\\n\\nCONCLUSION: The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/development-validation-risk-score-predicting-substantial-weight-gain-5-years-middleaged-european-men-1", "reader_count"=>16, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Researcher"=>6, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>3, "Other"=>2, "Student > Master"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Researcher"=>6, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>3, "Other"=>2, "Student > Master"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>10, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>1, "Psychology"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>2, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>10}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>2}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>1}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>1}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"New Zealand"=>1, "United States"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>2}, "group_count"=>0}

Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1120538"], "description"=>"<p><sup>1</sup>No follow-up questionnaire (e.g. due to death before follow-up body weight assessment, not yet approached for follow-up body weight assessment, emigration or non-response to invitation). <sup>2</sup>Pregnant at baseline or follow-up. <sup>3</sup>10% missing items on FFQ. <sup>4</sup>Ratio of energy intake (EI) to energy expenditure (EE) estimated from predicted resting energy expenditure. <sup>5</sup>Missing data on baseline or follow-up weight, waist or height, missing follow-up time. <sup>6</sup>Baseline height<130 cm, BMI<16 kg/m<sup>2</sup>, 0160 cm, follow-up weight>700 kg. Combination of waist<60 cm and BMI>25 kg/m<sup>2</sup>. <sup>7</sup>Annual weight change>5 kg (either direction) or annual waist change>7 cm (either direction). <sup>8</sup> Baseline cancer, diabetes or cardiovascular disease.<sup>9</sup> In contrast to the derivation of the model where it is important to obtain unbiased estimates of relative risk, we think only original data should be used in the validation sample and we therefore excluded individuals with missing values.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Clinical research design", "Cohort studies", "Statistical methods", "epidemiology", "Epidemiology of aging", "Non-clinical medicine", "Health care policy", "Health risk analysis", "nutrition", "obesity", "Public health", "Research assessment", "Research validity", "diagram", "excluded"], "article_id"=>746772, "categories"=>["Medicine", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Annika Steffen", "Thorkild I A. Sørensen", "Sven Knüppel", "Noémie Travier", "María-José Sánchez", "José María Huerta", "J. Ramón Quirós", "Eva Ardanaz", "Miren Dorronsoro", "Birgit Teucher", "Kuanrong Li", "H. Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita", "Daphne van der A", "Amalia Mattiello", "Domenico Palli", "Rosario Tumino", "Vittorio Krogh", "Paolo Vineis", "Antonia Trichopoulou", "Philippos Orfanos", "Dimitrios Trichopoulos", "Bo Hedblad", "Peter Wallström", "Kim Overvad", "Jytte Halkjær", "Anne Tjønneland", "Guy Fagherazzi", "Laureen Dartois", "Francesca Crowe", "Kay-Tee Khaw", "Nick Wareham", "Lefkos Middleton", "Anne M. May", "Petra H. M. Peeters", "Heiner Boeing"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0067429.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Flow_diagram_of_participants_excluded_from_the_present_study_/746772", "title"=>"Flow diagram of participants excluded from the present study.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-07-16 03:37:22"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1120540"], "description"=>"<p>Corresponding range of points for tenths in the derivation sample were <145, 145–<165, 165–<181, 181–<194, 194–<206, 206–<218, 218–<231, 231–<246, 246–<267, and ≥267. P for calibration  = 0.02. Corresponding range of points for tenths in the validation sample <162, 162–<185, 185–<200, 200–<212, 212–<223, 223–<234, 234–<246, 246–<259, 259–<280, and ≥280. P for calibration  = <001.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Clinical research design", "Cohort studies", "Statistical methods", "epidemiology", "Epidemiology of aging", "Non-clinical medicine", "Health care policy", "Health risk analysis", "nutrition", "obesity", "Public health", "Research assessment", "Research validity", "observed", "cases", "tenths", "derivation", "validation"], "article_id"=>746774, "categories"=>["Medicine", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Annika Steffen", "Thorkild I A. Sørensen", "Sven Knüppel", "Noémie Travier", "María-José Sánchez", "José María Huerta", "J. Ramón Quirós", "Eva Ardanaz", "Miren Dorronsoro", "Birgit Teucher", "Kuanrong Li", "H. Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita", "Daphne van der A", "Amalia Mattiello", "Domenico Palli", "Rosario Tumino", "Vittorio Krogh", "Paolo Vineis", "Antonia Trichopoulou", "Philippos Orfanos", "Dimitrios Trichopoulos", "Bo Hedblad", "Peter Wallström", "Kim Overvad", "Jytte Halkjær", "Anne Tjønneland", "Guy Fagherazzi", "Laureen Dartois", "Francesca Crowe", "Kay-Tee Khaw", "Nick Wareham", "Lefkos Middleton", "Anne M. May", "Petra H. M. Peeters", "Heiner Boeing"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0067429.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Calibration_plot_showing_observed_proportion_of_cases_across_tenths_of_predicted_risk_in_the_a_derivation_sample_and_b_validation_sample_/746774", "title"=>"Calibration plot showing observed proportion of cases across tenths of predicted risk in the a) derivation sample and b) validation sample.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-07-16 03:37:22"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1120541"], "description"=>"*<p>Using center-specific regression coefficients for all predictor variables included in the overall model.</p>†<p>Including only center-specific predictor variables.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Clinical research design", "Cohort studies", "Statistical methods", "epidemiology", "Epidemiology of aging", "Non-clinical medicine", "Health care policy", "Health risk analysis", "nutrition", "obesity", "Public health", "Research assessment", "Research validity", "centers", "compared", "re-estimated", "center-specific", "derivation", "validation"], "article_id"=>746775, "categories"=>["Medicine", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Annika Steffen", "Thorkild I A. Sørensen", "Sven Knüppel", "Noémie Travier", "María-José Sánchez", "José María Huerta", "J. Ramón Quirós", "Eva Ardanaz", "Miren Dorronsoro", "Birgit Teucher", "Kuanrong Li", "H. Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita", "Daphne van der A", "Amalia Mattiello", "Domenico Palli", "Rosario Tumino", "Vittorio Krogh", "Paolo Vineis", "Antonia Trichopoulou", "Philippos Orfanos", "Dimitrios Trichopoulos", "Bo Hedblad", "Peter Wallström", "Kim Overvad", "Jytte Halkjær", "Anne Tjønneland", "Guy Fagherazzi", "Laureen Dartois", "Francesca Crowe", "Kay-Tee Khaw", "Nick Wareham", "Lefkos Middleton", "Anne M. May", "Petra H. M. Peeters", "Heiner Boeing"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0067429.t004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Discriminatory_ability_of_the_overall_risk_score_across_centers_compared_to_the_re_estimated_overall_model_and_center_specific_models_in_the_derivation_and_validation_sample_/746775", "title"=>"Discriminatory ability of the overall risk score across centers compared to the re-estimated overall model and center-specific models in the derivation and validation sample.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-07-16 03:37:22"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1120542"], "description"=>"<p>Data are means (SD) or percentages. Bl  =  Baseline.<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0067429#pone-0067429-t003\" target=\"_blank\">Table 3</a>. Combined estimates of relative risk for the association of retained predictors with substantial weight gain*.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Clinical research design", "Cohort studies", "Statistical methods", "epidemiology", "Epidemiology of aging", "Non-clinical medicine", "Health care policy", "Health risk analysis", "nutrition", "obesity", "Public health", "Research assessment", "Research validity", "derivation", "validation"], "article_id"=>746776, "categories"=>["Medicine", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Annika Steffen", "Thorkild I A. Sørensen", "Sven Knüppel", "Noémie Travier", "María-José Sánchez", "José María Huerta", "J. Ramón Quirós", "Eva Ardanaz", "Miren Dorronsoro", "Birgit Teucher", "Kuanrong Li", "H. Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita", "Daphne van der A", "Amalia Mattiello", "Domenico Palli", "Rosario Tumino", "Vittorio Krogh", "Paolo Vineis", "Antonia Trichopoulou", "Philippos Orfanos", "Dimitrios Trichopoulos", "Bo Hedblad", "Peter Wallström", "Kim Overvad", "Jytte Halkjær", "Anne Tjønneland", "Guy Fagherazzi", "Laureen Dartois", "Francesca Crowe", "Kay-Tee Khaw", "Nick Wareham", "Lefkos Middleton", "Anne M. May", "Petra H. M. Peeters", "Heiner Boeing"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0067429.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>7, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_General_characteristics_of_the_derivation_and_validation_population_/746776", "title"=>"General characteristics of the derivation and validation population.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-07-16 03:37:22"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1120543"], "description"=>"*<p>Predictors were identified using center-specific stepwise Cox regression in the derivation sample. Those factors being significantly (two-sided P-value <0.05) related to substantial weight gain in ≥2 centers were retained for the final model. Center-specific effects for the retained predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. These combined estimates of relative risk are presented in the table. For continuous variables, relative risks per increase of a defined portion size are presented. For categorical variables, comparison with the reference group is shown. Substantial weight gain was defined as gaining ≥10% of baseline weight during the individual's follow-up.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Clinical research design", "Cohort studies", "Statistical methods", "epidemiology", "Epidemiology of aging", "Non-clinical medicine", "Health care policy", "Health risk analysis", "nutrition", "obesity", "Public health", "Research assessment", "Research validity", "estimates", "retained", "predictors"], "article_id"=>746777, "categories"=>["Medicine", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Annika Steffen", "Thorkild I A. Sørensen", "Sven Knüppel", "Noémie Travier", "María-José Sánchez", "José María Huerta", "J. Ramón Quirós", "Eva Ardanaz", "Miren Dorronsoro", "Birgit Teucher", "Kuanrong Li", "H. Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita", "Daphne van der A", "Amalia Mattiello", "Domenico Palli", "Rosario Tumino", "Vittorio Krogh", "Paolo Vineis", "Antonia Trichopoulou", "Philippos Orfanos", "Dimitrios Trichopoulos", "Bo Hedblad", "Peter Wallström", "Kim Overvad", "Jytte Halkjær", "Anne Tjønneland", "Guy Fagherazzi", "Laureen Dartois", "Francesca Crowe", "Kay-Tee Khaw", "Nick Wareham", "Lefkos Middleton", "Anne M. May", "Petra H. M. Peeters", "Heiner Boeing"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0067429.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Combined_estimates_of_relative_risk_for_the_association_of_retained_predictors_with_substantial_weight_gain_/746777", "title"=>"Combined estimates of relative risk for the association of retained predictors with substantial weight gain.<sup>*</sup>", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-07-16 03:37:22"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1120544"], "description"=>"<p>PPV  =  positive predictive value; NPV  =  negative predictive value. Youden's index was calculated according to the following formula: J  =  (sensitivity (%) + specificity (%) –100)/100.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Clinical research design", "Cohort studies", "Statistical methods", "epidemiology", "Epidemiology of aging", "Non-clinical medicine", "Health care policy", "Health risk analysis", "nutrition", "obesity", "Public health", "Research assessment", "Research validity", "predictive", "cut-off", "points", "derivation"], "article_id"=>746778, "categories"=>["Medicine", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Annika Steffen", "Thorkild I A. Sørensen", "Sven Knüppel", "Noémie Travier", "María-José Sánchez", "José María Huerta", "J. Ramón Quirós", "Eva Ardanaz", "Miren Dorronsoro", "Birgit Teucher", "Kuanrong Li", "H. Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita", "Daphne van der A", "Amalia Mattiello", "Domenico Palli", "Rosario Tumino", "Vittorio Krogh", "Paolo Vineis", "Antonia Trichopoulou", "Philippos Orfanos", "Dimitrios Trichopoulos", "Bo Hedblad", "Peter Wallström", "Kim Overvad", "Jytte Halkjær", "Anne Tjønneland", "Guy Fagherazzi", "Laureen Dartois", "Francesca Crowe", "Kay-Tee Khaw", "Nick Wareham", "Lefkos Middleton", "Anne M. May", "Petra H. M. Peeters", "Heiner Boeing"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0067429.t003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>12, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Sensitivity_specificity_positive_and_negative_predictive_value_for_various_cut_off_points_of_the_risk_score_in_the_derivation_sample_/746778", "title"=>"Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value for various cut-off points of the risk score in the derivation sample.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-07-16 03:37:22"}

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Relative Metric

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