Supporting Fisheries Management by Means of Complex Models: Can We Point out Isles of Robustness in a Sea of Uncertainty?
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{"title"=>"Supporting Fisheries Management by Means of Complex Models: Can We Point out Isles of Robustness in a Sea of Uncertainty?", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Loïc", "last_name"=>"Gasche"}, {"first_name"=>"Stéphanie", "last_name"=>"Mahévas"}, {"first_name"=>"Paul", "last_name"=>"Marchal"}], "year"=>2013, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"1932-6203", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84905297697", "sgr"=>"84905297697", "pui"=>"563079806", "isbn"=>"1932-6203", "pmid"=>"24204873", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0077566"}, "id"=>"c0216525-2284-3e96-aae8-4c1ea63aa8c7", "abstract"=>"Ecosystems are usually complex, nonlinear and strongly influenced by poorly known environmental variables. Among these systems, marine ecosystems have high uncertainties: marine populations in general are known to exhibit large levels of natural variability and the intensity of fishing efforts can change rapidly. These uncertainties are a source of risks that threaten the sustainability of both fish populations and fishing fleets targeting them. Appropriate management measures have to be found in order to reduce these risks and decrease sensitivity to uncertainties. Methods have been developed within decision theory that aim at allowing decision making under severe uncertainty. One of these methods is the information-gap decision theory. The info-gap method has started to permeate ecological modelling, with recent applications to conservation. However, these practical applications have so far been restricted to simple models with analytical solutions. Here we implement a deterministic approach based on decision theory in a complex model of the Eastern English Channel. Using the ISIS-Fish modelling platform, we model populations of sole and plaice in this area. We test a wide range of values for ecosystem, fleet and management parameters. From these simulations, we identify management rules controlling fish harvesting that allow reaching management goals recommended by ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) working groups while providing the highest robustness to uncertainties on ecosystem parameters.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/supporting-fisheries-management-means-complex-models-we-point-isles-robustness-sea-uncertainty", "reader_count"=>16, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>3, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Researcher"=>3, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>3, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Other"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>3, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Researcher"=>3, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>3, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Other"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Engineering"=>2, "Unspecified"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>3, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>5, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>2, "Social Sciences"=>1, "Computer Science"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>2}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>2}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>5}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>2}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>1}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>3}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Tanzania"=>1}, "group_count"=>2}

Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364131"], "description"=>"<p>Management parameters values identified from leaf 3 and environmental variability they allow dealing with. For sole in subarea 7D.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836557, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.t009"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Management_parameters_values_identified_from_leaf_3_and_environmental_variability_they_allow_dealing_with_For_sole_in_subarea_7D_/836557", "title"=>"Management parameters values identified from leaf 3 and environmental variability they allow dealing with. For sole in subarea 7D.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
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  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364104"], "description"=>"<p>Input parameters most impacting output variables (continued).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836556, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.t006"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>6, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Input_parameters_most_impacting_output_variables_continued_/836556", "title"=>"Input parameters most impacting output variables (continued).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364095"], "description"=>"<p>Input parameters most impacting output variables.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836553, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.t005"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Input_parameters_most_impacting_output_variables_/836553", "title"=>"Input parameters most impacting output variables.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364074"], "description"=>"<p>Biological and technical parameters tested, for every population, métier or gear.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836551, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.t003"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>6, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Biological_and_technical_parameters_tested_for_every_population_m_233_tier_or_gear_/836551", "title"=>"Biological and technical parameters tested, for every population, métier or gear.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364056"], "description"=>"<p>TAC values used for the first three simulated years.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836552, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.t002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>2, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_TAC_values_used_for_the_first_three_simulated_years_/836552", "title"=>"TAC values used for the first three simulated years.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364041"], "description"=>"<p>Recruitment (in number) values used for the first three simulated years and after.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836550, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.t001"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>2, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Recruitment_in_number_values_used_for_the_first_three_simulated_years_and_after_/836550", "title"=>"Recruitment (in number) values used for the first three simulated years and after.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364020"], "description"=>"<p>Each row corresponds to one of the 81 input parameters tested and each column to an output variable. Output variables are biomass (B), Spawning Biomass (SSB), Fishing mortality (F) and Catch (Y). Results have to be studied in columns, black cells indicating important parameters for a given output.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836547, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.g003"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>2, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Results_of_the_sensitivity_analysis_/836547", "title"=>"Results of the sensitivity analysis.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4363987", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4363990", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4363996"], "description"=>"<div><p>Ecosystems are usually complex, nonlinear and strongly influenced by poorly known environmental variables. Among these systems, marine ecosystems have high uncertainties: marine populations in general are known to exhibit large levels of natural variability and the intensity of fishing efforts can change rapidly. These uncertainties are a source of risks that threaten the sustainability of both fish populations and fishing fleets targeting them. Appropriate management measures have to be found in order to reduce these risks and decrease sensitivity to uncertainties. Methods have been developed within decision theory that aim at allowing decision making under severe uncertainty. One of these methods is the information-gap decision theory. The info-gap method has started to permeate ecological modelling, with recent applications to conservation. However, these practical applications have so far been restricted to simple models with analytical solutions. Here we implement a deterministic approach based on decision theory in a complex model of the Eastern English Channel. Using the ISIS-Fish modelling platform, we model populations of sole and plaice in this area. We test a wide range of values for ecosystem, fleet and management parameters. From these simulations, we identify management rules controlling fish harvesting that allow reaching management goals recommended by ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) working groups while providing the highest robustness to uncertainties on ecosystem parameters.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836561, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.s003"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Supporting_Fisheries_Management_by_Means_of_Complex_Models_Can_We_Point_out_Isles_of_Robustness_in_a_Sea_of_Uncertainty_/836561", "title"=>"Supporting Fisheries Management by Means of Complex Models: Can We Point out Isles of Robustness in a Sea of Uncertainty?", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364143"], "description"=>"<p>Results of the classification performed with conditional trees for plaice.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836559, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.t010"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Results_of_the_classification_performed_with_conditional_trees_for_plaice_/836559", "title"=>"Results of the classification performed with conditional trees for plaice.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364149"], "description"=>"<p>Management parameters values identified from leaf 4 and environmental variability they allow dealing with. For plaice in subarea 7D.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836560, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.t011"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>8, "page_views"=>14, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Management_parameters_values_identified_from_leaf_4_and_environmental_variability_they_allow_dealing_with_For_plaice_in_subarea_7D_/836560", "title"=>"Management parameters values identified from leaf 4 and environmental variability they allow dealing with. For plaice in subarea 7D.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364122"], "description"=>"<p>Management parameters values identified from leaf 6 and environmental variability they allow dealing with. For sole in subarea 7D.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836558, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.t008"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Management_parameters_values_identified_from_leaf_6_and_environmental_variability_they_allow_dealing_with_For_sole_in_subarea_7D_/836558", "title"=>"Management parameters values identified from leaf 6 and environmental variability they allow dealing with. For sole in subarea 7D.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364116"], "description"=>"<p>Results of the classification performed with conditional trees for sole.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836555, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.t007"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Results_of_the_classification_performed_with_conditional_trees_for_sole_/836555", "title"=>"Results of the classification performed with conditional trees for sole.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364083"], "description"=>"<p>Management parameters tested.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836554, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.t004"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Management_parameters_tested_/836554", "title"=>"Management parameters tested.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364032"], "description"=>"<p>The criterion separating successes from failures is a 8000t spawning biomass threshold. Splitting variables (and values) are sorted by importance, from the top to the bottom of the tree (the most important corresponding to node 1). Values appearing on branches of the tree are the splitting values. The black and grey squares at the bottom of the tree are the terminal nodes or leaves.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836549, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.g004"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Main_tree_built_on_management_measures_for_sole_in_subarea_7D_/836549", "title"=>"Main tree built on management measures for sole in subarea 7D.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4364011"], "description"=>"<p>The first tree (called the main tree) is built on management parameters only, as they are the main concern in the study. When management parameters do not allow robustly reaching management goals, trees (called subtrees) are built for each leaf of the main tree. The second set of trees is built on parameters identified as important by the sensitivity analysis. Results of interest are parameters values corresponding to branches (either of the main tree only or both the main tree and a subtree) leading to robust leaves.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fishing", "Eastern English Channel", "Appropriate management measures", "method", "marine", "uncertainty", "ICES", "decision theory", "modelling", "ecosystem", "fleet", "application", "parameter", "model"], "article_id"=>836543, "categories"=>["Neuroscience", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Inorganic Chemistry"], "users"=>["Loïc Gasche", "Stéphanie Mahévas", "Paul Marchal"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077566.g002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Successive_use_of_trees_for_input_parameters_space_exploration_/836543", "title"=>"Successive use of trees for input parameters space exploration.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-10-30 20:41:43"}

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Relative Metric

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