Confronting Uncertainty in Wildlife Management: Performance of Grizzly Bear Management
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{"title"=>"Confronting uncertainty in wildlife management: Performance of grizzly bear management", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Kyle A.", "last_name"=>"Artelle", "scopus_author_id"=>"36986800100"}, {"first_name"=>"Sean C.", "last_name"=>"Anderson", "scopus_author_id"=>"25930284300"}, {"first_name"=>"Andrew B.", "last_name"=>"Cooper", "scopus_author_id"=>"55510179900"}, {"first_name"=>"Paul C.", "last_name"=>"Paquet", "scopus_author_id"=>"7006661830"}, {"first_name"=>"John D.", "last_name"=>"Reynolds", "scopus_author_id"=>"7403603566"}, {"first_name"=>"Chris T.", "last_name"=>"Darimont", "scopus_author_id"=>"36832400400"}], "year"=>2013, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"sgr"=>"84892400731", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0078041", "pui"=>"372116245", "pmid"=>"24223134", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84892400731", "issn"=>"19326203"}, "id"=>"a33f0cf4-15a1-397b-ada5-ed112e2f8513", "abstract"=>"Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone--discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels--led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years) examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (i.e., biological uncertainty) revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/confronting-uncertainty-wildlife-management-performance-grizzly-bear-management", "reader_count"=>69, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>5, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>5, "Researcher"=>12, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>13, "Student > Postgraduate"=>5, "Student > Master"=>12, "Other"=>5, "Student > Bachelor"=>8, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>5, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>5, "Researcher"=>12, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>13, "Student > Postgraduate"=>5, "Student > Master"=>12, "Other"=>5, "Student > Bachelor"=>8, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>9, "Environmental Science"=>15, "Mathematics"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>37, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>3, "Sports and Recreations"=>1, "Physics and Astronomy"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>3}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>2}, "Sports and Recreations"=>{"Sports and Recreations"=>1}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>37}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>9}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>15}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Canada"=>2, "United Kingdom"=>1, "France"=>1}, "group_count"=>2}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269733"], "description"=>"<p>(A) female mortality as percent of all mortality, (B) female mortality as percent of all mortality in female overmortality events, (C) female hunting mortality as percent of all hunting mortality, and (D) female hunting mortality as a percent of all hunting mortality in female overmortality events. Vertical red lines indicate 30%, the threshold below which female mortality must remain for total mortality limits to be theoretically sustainable according to the BC government’s mortality management procedure.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["percent", "grizzly", "arctos", "units", "british", "allocation", "periods"], "article_id"=>842816, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kyle A. Artelle", "Sean C. Anderson", "Andrew B. Cooper", "Paul C. Paquet", "John D. Reynolds", "Chris T. Darimont"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Female_mortality_as_percent_of_total_mortality_across_Grizzly_Bear_U_arctos_horriblis_Population_Units_population_units_in_British_Columbia_Canada_and_allocation_periods_2001_2003_2004_2006_and_2007_2011_/842816", "title"=>"Female mortality as percent of total mortality across Grizzly Bear (<i>U. arctos horriblis)</i> Population Units (“population units”) in British Columbia, Canada, and allocation periods (2001–2003, 2004–2006, and 2007–2011).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-11-06 02:43:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269731"], "description"=>"<p>Black curve is a Michaelis-Menten curve fitted by maximum likelihood, assuming a negative binomial error distribution. Red dashed line indicates a 1∶1 relationship; solid red dots above this line signal population unit-level overmortality events. Dark and light grey-shaded regions encompass the 50% and 80% prediction intervals, respectively (smoothed for visual purposes). Inset histograms show the distribution of GBPU-level percent difference between known mortalities and mortality targets (conflated with limits under mortality management policy); red bars to the right of red dashed lines indicate overmortality events.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["grizzly", "arctos", "units", "british", "si"], "article_id"=>842814, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kyle A. Artelle", "Sean C. Anderson", "Andrew B. Cooper", "Paul C. Paquet", "John D. Reynolds", "Chris T. Darimont"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Outcome_uncertainty_for_A_total_and_B_female_mortality_in_Grizzly_Bear_U_arctos_horribilis_Population_Units_population_units_in_British_Columbia_Canada_2007_2011_see_SI_for_additional_periods_/842814", "title"=>"Outcome uncertainty for A) total and B) female mortality in Grizzly Bear (<i>U. arctos horribilis</i>) Population Units (“population units”) in British Columbia, Canada, 2007–2011 (see SI for additional periods).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-11-06 02:43:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269737", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269738", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269739", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269740", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269741", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269742", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269743", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269744", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269745", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269746"], "description"=>"<div><p>Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (<i>Ursus arctos horribilis</i>) in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone – discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels – led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years) examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (<i>i.e.</i>, biological uncertainty) revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["grizzly"], "article_id"=>842819, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kyle A. Artelle", "Sean C. Anderson", "Andrew B. Cooper", "Paul C. Paquet", "John D. Reynolds", "Chris T. Darimont"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.s004", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.s005", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.s006", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.s007", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.s008", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.s009", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.s010"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>10, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Confronting_Uncertainty_in_Wildlife_Management_Performance_of_Grizzly_Bear_Management_/842819", "title"=>"Confronting Uncertainty in Wildlife Management: Performance of Grizzly Bear Management", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-11-06 02:43:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269735"], "description"=>"<p>Targets (dashed black lines) from this approach are set so that the resulting outcome uncertainty distribution (grey distribution) overlaps with a maximum of 5% or 25% of the mortality limit uncertainty distribution (red distribution). Red vertical lines represent mortality limits (conflated with targets in previous periods under mortality management policy) set by the government in 2007–2011. Magnitudes of recommended target reductions are shown by black double-headed arrows. E-F) Reduction in mortality targets, relative to 2007–2011 targets (conflated with limits under mortality management policy), required to maintain the probability of both female and total overmortality below E) 5% or F) 25%. Increasingly dark red indicates increasing target reductions identified.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["probability", "overmortality", "integrating", "stewart", "grizzly", "arctos"], "article_id"=>842818, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kyle A. Artelle", "Sean C. Anderson", "Andrew B. Cooper", "Paul C. Paquet", "John D. Reynolds", "Chris T. Darimont"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.g007", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>12, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Illustration_of_our_method_for_setting_female_A_and_C_and_total_B_and_D_mortality_targets_with_maximum_probability_of_overmortality_of_5_A_and_B_or_25_C_and_D_by_integrating_outcome_uncertainty_grey_distribution_and_mortality_limit_uncertainty_red_distri/842818", "title"=>"Illustration of our method for setting female (A and C) and total (B and D) mortality targets, with maximum probability of overmortality of 5% (A and B) or 25% (C and D) by integrating outcome uncertainty (grey distribution) and mortality limit uncertainty (red distribution), using the Stewart Grizzly Bear (<i>U. arctos horribilis</i>) Population Unit as an example.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-11-06 02:43:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269730"], "description"=>"<p>Blue vertical line represents the mortality limit point estimate used by government. Entire distribution (in this example a hypothetical normal distribution used for simplicity) represents the distribution of mortality limit uncertainty, or the distribution of simulated mortality limits. Red dashed line represents the known mortality for the same population unit-period. Red portion of the distribution represents the proportion of simulated mortality limits that fell below known mortality levels in the population unit-period. The percent area of the overall distribution occupied by the red portion provides a proxy for the probability that overmortality occurred. See also <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041#pone.0078041.s009\" target=\"_blank\">Video S1</a>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["estimating", "probability", "overmortality", "grizzly", "arctos"], "article_id"=>842813, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kyle A. Artelle", "Sean C. Anderson", "Andrew B. Cooper", "Paul C. Paquet", "John D. Reynolds", "Chris T. Darimont"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>7, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Illustration_of_method_for_estimating_the_probability_of_overmortality_in_an_individual_Grizzly_Bear_U_arctos_horribilis_Population_Unit_population_unit_and_period_/842813", "title"=>"Illustration of method for estimating the probability of overmortality in an individual Grizzly Bear (<i>U. arctos horribilis</i>) Population Unit (“population unit”) and period.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-11-06 02:43:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269729"], "description"=>"<p>A province-wide moratorium on the trophy hunt during one of two hunting seasons caused lower hunting mortality in 2001.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["grizzly", "arctos", "non-hunting", "sources", "british"], "article_id"=>842812, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kyle A. Artelle", "Sean C. Anderson", "Andrew B. Cooper", "Paul C. Paquet", "John D. Reynolds", "Chris T. Darimont"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>13, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Total_grizzly_bear_U_arctos_horribilis_mortality_from_hunting_solid_black_line_and_non_hunting_sources_dashed_line_in_British_Columbia_Canada_from_2001_2011_/842812", "title"=>"Total grizzly bear (<i>U. arctos horribilis</i>) mortality from hunting (solid-black line) and non-hunting sources (dashed line) in British Columbia, Canada, from 2001–2011.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-11-06 02:43:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269734"], "description"=>"<p>A) Overmortalities detected given known hunting mortality levels and without consideration of mortality limit uncertainty. Blue indicates population units with detected overmortality whereas white indicates population units without. B–D) Simulated probability of total or female overmortality, incorporating uncertainty around mortality limits. Panel B shows simulated probability of overmortality given known mortality rates; panels C and D show what the probability of overmortality would be had hunting mortality been reduced by 50% or 100%, respectively, assuming other sources of mortality remained unchanged. Increasingly dark red indicates an increasing probability of overmortality in a given period. Grizzly bears have been extirpated from dark-grey areas. Light-grey areas indicate population units in which populations are either threatened or were closed to hunting during the study period.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["overmortalities", "grizzly", "arctos", "units", "british", "si"], "article_id"=>842817, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kyle A. Artelle", "Sean C. Anderson", "Andrew B. Cooper", "Paul C. Paquet", "John D. Reynolds", "Chris T. Darimont"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>19, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Total_and_female_overmortalities_of_Grizzly_Bear_U_arctos_horribilis_Population_Units_population_units_of_British_Columbia_Canada_from_2007_2011_see_SI_for_additional_periods_/842817", "title"=>"Total and female overmortalities of Grizzly Bear (<i>U. arctos horribilis</i>) Population Units (“population units”) of British Columbia, Canada, from 2007–2011 (see SI for additional periods).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-11-06 02:43:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1269732"], "description"=>"<p>Shown are 2009 population unit boundaries. Hunting is not allowed in areas denoted as “threatened”, “extirpated”, or “closed to hunting”. One additional population unit (Blackwater-West Chilcotin) has been reclassified as threatened as of 2012.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["allocation", "periods", "overmortality", "occurred", "grizzly", "arctos", "units", "british"], "article_id"=>842815, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kyle A. Artelle", "Sean C. Anderson", "Andrew B. Cooper", "Paul C. Paquet", "John D. Reynolds", "Chris T. Darimont"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078041.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Number_of_allocation_periods_2001_2003_2004_2006_or_2007_2011_in_which_female_or_total_overmortality_occurred_in_Grizzly_Bear_U_arctos_horribilis_Population_Units_population_units_of_British_Columbia_Canada_/842815", "title"=>"Number of allocation periods (2001–2003, 2004–2006, or 2007–2011) in which female or total overmortality occurred in Grizzly Bear (<i>U. arctos horribilis</i>) Population Units (“population units”) of British Columbia, Canada.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-11-06 02:43:07"}

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Relative Metric

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