Understanding the Causes of Recent Warming of Mediterranean Waters. How Much Could Be Attributed to Climate Change?
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{"title"=>"Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Diego", "last_name"=>"Macias", "scopus_author_id"=>"15827627900"}, {"first_name"=>"Elisa", "last_name"=>"Garcia-Gorriz", "scopus_author_id"=>"56044035900"}, {"first_name"=>"Adolf", "last_name"=>"Stips", "scopus_author_id"=>"6602399352"}], "year"=>2013, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"sgr"=>"84896692085", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0081591", "issn"=>"19326203", "pui"=>"372438604", "pmid"=>"24312322", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84896692085"}, "id"=>"bc48912c-cf91-3d90-9787-059e220e10f4", "abstract"=>"During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST) from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/understanding-causes-recent-warming-mediterranean-waters-much-attributed-climate-change", "reader_count"=>53, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>14, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>20, "Student > Master"=>7, "Student > Bachelor"=>6, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>14, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>20, "Student > Master"=>7, "Student > Bachelor"=>6, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>12, "Mathematics"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>14, "Arts and Humanities"=>2, "Physics and Astronomy"=>3, "Chemistry"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>18}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Chemistry"=>{"Chemistry"=>1}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>1}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>3}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>18}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>14}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>1}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>12}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>2}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>1, "Israel"=>1, "Spain"=>3}, "group_count"=>2}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1296809"], "description"=>"<p>a) Low-frequency signal obtained from the monthly simulated SST from 1985–2009 (red dotted line). Low-frequency signal obtained from the monthly satellite data (blue line, the same as shown in <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0081591#pone-0081591-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 1b</a>). b) Low-frequency signal obtained from the monthly simulated SST from 1960–2011 (red solid line). For comparison, signals from Fig. 3a have been also included. c) Unfiltered (thin grey line) and filtered (bold black line) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index plotted together with the low-frequency signal obtained from the long model run. The AMO fitted to a sinusoidal equation (see <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0081591#s2\" target=\"_blank\">Material and Methods</a>) is shown from 1900 to 2100 (solid green line) along with the 95% confidence prediction bands (dotted green lines).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>[], "article_id"=>863330, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Earth and Environmental Sciences"], "users"=>["Diego Macias", "Elisa Garcia-Gorriz", "Adolf Stips"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081591.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Spectral_analysis_of_the_model_simulations_/863330", "title"=>"Spectral analysis of the model simulations.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-11-27 03:06:26"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1296810"], "description"=>"<p>Red line, linear trend estimate derived from the last 25 years of satellite observations (see <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0081591#pone-0081591-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 1d</a>). Blue line, SST linear trend equal to the residual tendency in the satellite data during the last 25 years after removing the low-frequency signal revealed by SSA. Green line, SST trend obtained by adding the fitted AMO (green line in <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0081591#pone-0081591-g003\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 3c</a>) to the corrected linear trend. Error bars computed from the 95% confidence prediction bands of the fittings (see <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0081591#pone-0081591-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Figs 1</a> and <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0081591#pone-0081591-g003\" target=\"_blank\">3</a>) are also shown.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["projections", "sst", "mediterranean", "basin"], "article_id"=>863331, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Earth and Environmental Sciences"], "users"=>["Diego Macias", "Elisa Garcia-Gorriz", "Adolf Stips"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081591.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>15, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Statistical_projections_of_SST_in_the_Mediterranean_basin_from_the_present_to_2100_/863331", "title"=>"Statistical projections of SST in the Mediterranean basin from the present to 2100.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-11-27 03:06:26"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1296803"], "description"=>"<p>a) Climatologic SST in the basin between January 1985 and December 1989. b) Climatologic SST in the basin between January 2005 and December 2009. c) Differences in SST between the period from 2000 to 2005 and the period from 1985 to 1989. d) Tendency of the SST time series after removing the annual and semiannual signals by applying the singular spectral analysis (black dots). Linear fitting of the SST tendency (red lines and inserted equation). Main signal within the SST tendency obtained from the singular spectral analysis (blue line).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["mediterranean", "basin", "1985"], "article_id"=>863324, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Earth and Environmental Sciences"], "users"=>["Diego Macias", "Elisa Garcia-Gorriz", "Adolf Stips"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081591.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>271, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Analysis_of_satellite_sea_surface_temperature_SST_data_in_the_Mediterranean_basin_from_1985_to_2009_/863324", "title"=>"Analysis of satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data in the Mediterranean basin from 1985 to 2009.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-11-27 03:06:26"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1296805"], "description"=>"<p>a) Taylor Diagram of the model-satellite data comparison. The red star corresponds to the spatial distribution comparison. The yellow square corresponds to the temporal evolution comparison. b) Time series of the observed (from satellite) monthly mean SST (blue line) and simulated monthly mean SST (red line) during the period from 1985 to 2009.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["simulation", "1985"], "article_id"=>863326, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Earth and Environmental Sciences"], "users"=>["Diego Macias", "Elisa Garcia-Gorriz", "Adolf Stips"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081591.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Satellite_data_8211_model_simulation_comparison_for_the_period_from_1985_to_2009_/863326", "title"=>"Satellite data – model simulation comparison for the period from 1985 to 2009.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-11-27 03:06:26"}

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Relative Metric

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