Estimation of the HIV Basic Reproduction Number in Rural South West Uganda: 1991–2008
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{"title"=>"Estimation of the HIV basic reproduction number in rural South West Uganda: 1991-2008", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Rebecca N.", "last_name"=>"Nsubuga", "scopus_author_id"=>"36806561500"}, {"first_name"=>"Richard G.", "last_name"=>"White", "scopus_author_id"=>"8781712900"}, {"first_name"=>"Billy N.", "last_name"=>"Mayanja", "scopus_author_id"=>"6602645271"}, {"first_name"=>"Leigh Anne", "last_name"=>"Shafer", "scopus_author_id"=>"6701740290"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"sgr"=>"84896761897", "pmid"=>"24404138", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84896761897", "issn"=>"19326203", "pui"=>"372577201", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0083778"}, "id"=>"abd544c7-2c5b-308b-a878-cd672d7a0dec", "abstract"=>"Background: The basic reproduction number, R 0 , is one of the many measures of the epidemic potential of an infection in a population. We estimate HIV R 0 over 18 years in a rural population in Uganda, examine method-specific differences in estimated R 0 , and estimate behavioural changes that would reduce R 0 below one. Methods: Data on HIV natural history and infectiousness were collated from literature. Data on new sexual partner count were available from a rural clinical cohort in Uganda over 1991–2008. R 0 was estimated using six methods. Behavioural changes required to reduce R 0 below one were calculated. Results: Reported number of new partners per year was 0 to 16 (women) and 0 to 80 (men). When proportionate sexual mixing was assumed, the different methods yielded comparable R 0 estimates. Assuming totally assortative mixing led to increased R 0 estimates in the high sexual activity class while all estimates in the low-activity class were below one. Using the ''effective'' partner change rate introduced by Anderson and colleagues resulted in R 0 estimates all above one except in the lowest sexual activity class. R 0 could be reduced below one if: (a) medium risk individuals reduce their partner acquisition rate by 70% and higher risk individuals reduce their partner acquisition rate by 93%, or (b) higher risk individuals reduce the partner acquisition rate by 95%. Conclusions: The estimated R 0 depended strongly on the method used. Ignoring variation in sexual activity leads to an underestimation of R 0 . Relying on behaviour change alone to eradicate HIV may require unrealistically large reductions in risk behaviour, even though for a small proportion of the population. To control HIV, complementary prevention strategies such as male circumcision and HIV treatment services need rapid scale up.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/estimation-hiv-basic-reproduction-number-rural-south-west-uganda-19912008", "reader_count"=>12, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Researcher"=>3, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>4, "Student > Master"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>1, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Researcher"=>3, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>4, "Student > Master"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>1, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>1, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>2, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Mathematics"=>1, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>2, "Arts and Humanities"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>1, "Computer Science"=>1, "Decision Sciences"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>2}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>1}, "Decision Sciences"=>{"Decision Sciences"=>1}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>1}, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>{"Nursing and Health Professions"=>2}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>1}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>1}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>1}}, "group_count"=>0}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1338417"], "description"=>"<p>Effect of reduction in the 2002–2008 average effective mean partner change rate on R<sub>0</sub> estimates from method 5.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Population biology", "epidemiology", "statistics", "Statistical methods", "Clinical research design", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "hiv", "HIV epidemiology", "Sexually transmitted diseases", "Public health", "Behavioral and social aspects of health", "estimates"], "article_id"=>893877, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Mathematics", "Medicine"], "users"=>["Rebecca N. Nsubuga", "Richard G. White", "Billy N. Mayanja", "Leigh Anne Shafer"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083778.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Effect_of_reduction_in_the_2002_2008_average_effective_mean_partner_change_rate_on_R_0_estimates_from_method_5_/893877", "title"=>"Effect of reduction in the 2002–2008 average effective mean partner change rate on R<sub>0</sub> estimates from method 5.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-03 02:58:18"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1338413"], "description"=>"<p>Distribution of annual partner turnover in the rural clinical cohort and HIV prevalence in the general population cohort.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Population biology", "epidemiology", "statistics", "Statistical methods", "Clinical research design", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "hiv", "HIV epidemiology", "Sexually transmitted diseases", "Public health", "Behavioral and social aspects of health", "turnover", "cohort", "prevalence"], "article_id"=>893873, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Mathematics", "Medicine"], "users"=>["Rebecca N. Nsubuga", "Richard G. White", "Billy N. Mayanja", "Leigh Anne Shafer"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083778.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>6, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Distribution_of_annual_partner_turnover_in_the_rural_clinical_cohort_and_HIV_prevalence_in_the_general_population_cohort_/893873", "title"=>"Distribution of annual partner turnover in the rural clinical cohort and HIV prevalence in the general population cohort.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-03 02:58:18"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1338421", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1338422", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1338423", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1338424", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1338425"], "description"=>"<div><p>Background</p><p>The basic reproduction number, , is one of the many measures of the epidemic potential of an infection in a population. We estimate HIV over 18 years in a rural population in Uganda, examine method-specific differences in estimated , and estimate behavioural changes that would reduce below one.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Data on HIV natural history and infectiousness were collated from literature. Data on new sexual partner count were available from a rural clinical cohort in Uganda over 1991–2008. was estimated using six methods. Behavioural changes required to reduce below one were calculated.</p><p>Results</p><p>Reported number of new partners per year was 0 to 16 (women) and 0 to 80 (men). When proportionate sexual mixing was assumed, the different methods yielded comparable estimates. Assuming totally assortative mixing led to increased estimates in the high sexual activity class while all estimates in the low-activity class were below one. Using the “effective” partner change rate introduced by Anderson and colleagues resulted in estimates all above one except in the lowest sexual activity class. could be reduced below one if: (a) medium risk individuals reduce their partner acquisition rate by 70% and higher risk individuals reduce their partner acquisition rate by 93%, or (b) higher risk individuals reduce the partner acquisition rate by 95%.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>The estimated depended strongly on the method used. Ignoring variation in sexual activity leads to an underestimation of . Relying on behaviour change alone to eradicate HIV may require unrealistically large reductions in risk behaviour, even though for a small proportion of the population. To control HIV, complementary prevention strategies such as male circumcision and HIV treatment services need rapid scale up.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Population biology", "epidemiology", "statistics", "Statistical methods", "Clinical research design", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "hiv", "HIV epidemiology", "Sexually transmitted diseases", "Public health", "Behavioral and social aspects of health", "reproduction"], "article_id"=>893881, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Mathematics", "Medicine"], "users"=>["Rebecca N. Nsubuga", "Richard G. White", "Billy N. Mayanja", "Leigh Anne Shafer"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083778.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083778.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083778.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083778.s004", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083778.s005"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Estimation_of_the_HIV_Basic_Reproduction_Number_in_Rural_South_West_Uganda_1991_8211_2008_/893881", "title"=>"Estimation of the HIV Basic Reproduction Number in Rural South West Uganda: 1991–2008", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2014-01-03 02:58:18"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1338419"], "description"=>"<p>Per cent reduction not calculated since the observed rate was below the threshold.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Population biology", "epidemiology", "statistics", "Statistical methods", "Clinical research design", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "hiv", "HIV epidemiology", "Sexually transmitted diseases", "Public health", "Behavioral and social aspects of health", "observed", "calculated", "attain"], "article_id"=>893879, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Mathematics", "Medicine"], "users"=>["Rebecca N. Nsubuga", "Richard G. White", "Billy N. Mayanja", "Leigh Anne Shafer"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083778.t003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>21, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_2002_2008_average_observed_and_threshold_partner_change_rates_calculated_R_0_and_reduction_in_observed_partner_change_rate_required_to_attain_R_0_lt_1_/893879", "title"=>"2002–2008 average observed and threshold partner change rates, calculated R<sub>0</sub> and % reduction in observed partner change rate required to attain R<sub>0</sub> < 1.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-01-03 02:58:18"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1338420"], "description"=>"<p>“-” implies R<sub>0</sub> could not be estimated because, for one or both genders, there were no individuals falling in the sexual activity class.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Population biology", "epidemiology", "statistics", "Statistical methods", "Clinical research design", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "hiv", "HIV epidemiology", "Sexually transmitted diseases", "Public health", "Behavioral and social aspects of health", "estimates"], "article_id"=>893880, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Mathematics", "Medicine"], "users"=>["Rebecca N. Nsubuga", "Richard G. White", "Billy N. Mayanja", "Leigh Anne Shafer"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083778.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_R_0_estimates_from_method_5_with_three_sexual_activity_classes_/893880", "title"=>"R<sub>0</sub> estimates from method 5, with three sexual activity classes.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-01-03 02:58:18"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1338418"], "description"=>"<p>“-” implies R<sub>0</sub> could not be estimated because, for one or both genders, there were no individuals falling in the sexual activity class.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Population biology", "epidemiology", "statistics", "Statistical methods", "Clinical research design", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "hiv", "HIV epidemiology", "Sexually transmitted diseases", "Public health", "Behavioral and social aspects of health", "estimates", "methods"], "article_id"=>893878, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Mathematics", "Medicine"], "users"=>["Rebecca N. Nsubuga", "Richard G. White", "Billy N. Mayanja", "Leigh Anne Shafer"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083778.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_R_0_estimates_from_methods_1_2_3_4_and_6_/893878", "title"=>"R<sub>0</sub> estimates from methods 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-01-03 02:58:18"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1338414"], "description"=>"<p>Partner change rates per year; by sexual activity class and gender.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Population biology", "epidemiology", "statistics", "Statistical methods", "Clinical research design", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "hiv", "HIV epidemiology", "Sexually transmitted diseases", "Public health", "Behavioral and social aspects of health", "rates"], "article_id"=>893874, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Mathematics", "Medicine"], "users"=>["Rebecca N. Nsubuga", "Richard G. White", "Billy N. Mayanja", "Leigh Anne Shafer"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083778.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Partner_change_rates_per_year_by_sexual_activity_class_and_gender_/893874", "title"=>"Partner change rates per year; by sexual activity class and gender.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-03 02:58:18"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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  • {"unique-ip"=>"4", "full-text"=>"4", "pdf"=>"0", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2017", "month"=>"3"}
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  • {"unique-ip"=>"5", "full-text"=>"5", "pdf"=>"0", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"2", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2017", "month"=>"7"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"2", "full-text"=>"3", "pdf"=>"0", "abstract"=>"0", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2017", "month"=>"8"}
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Relative Metric

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