Climate Change Increases Reproductive Failure in Magellanic Penguins
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{"title"=>"Climate change increases reproductive failure in magellanic penguins", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"P. Dee", "last_name"=>"Boersma", "scopus_author_id"=>"7004006125"}, {"first_name"=>"Ginger A.", "last_name"=>"Rebstock", "scopus_author_id"=>"6508300147"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"pui"=>"373070556", "sgr"=>"84900444852", "issn"=>"19326203", "pmid"=>"24489663", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84900444852", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0085602", "isbn"=>"1932-6203"}, "id"=>"f7291795-3f4f-37b6-8d11-abba75fa115f", "abstract"=>"Climate change is causing more frequent and intense storms, and climate models predict this trend will continue, potentially affecting wildlife populations. Since 1960 the number of days with >20 mm of rain increased near Punta Tombo, Argentina. Between 1983 and 2010 we followed 3496 known-age Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) chicks at Punta Tombo to determine how weather impacted their survival. In two years, rain was the most common cause of death killing 50% and 43% of chicks. In 26 years starvation killed the most chicks. Starvation and predation were present in all years. Chicks died in storms in 13 of 28 years and in 16 of 233 storms. Storm mortality was additive; there was no relationship between the number of chicks killed in storms and the numbers that starved (P = 0.75) or that were eaten (P = 0.39). However, when more chicks died in storms, fewer chicks fledged (P = 0.05, R(2) = 0.14). More chicks died when rainfall was higher and air temperature lower. Most chicks died from storms when they were 9-23 days old; the oldest chick killed in a storm was 41 days old. Storms with heavier rainfall killed older chicks as well as more chicks. Chicks up to 70 days old were killed by heat. Burrow nests mitigated storm mortality (N = 1063). The age span of chicks in the colony at any given time increased because the synchrony of egg laying decreased since 1983, lengthening the time when chicks are vulnerable to storms. Climate change that increases the frequency and intensity of storms results in more reproductive failure of Magellanic penguins, a pattern likely to apply to many species breeding in the region. Climate variability has already lowered reproductive success of Magellanic penguins and is likely undermining the resilience of many other species.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/climate-change-increases-reproductive-failure-magellanic-penguins", "reader_count"=>98, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Librarian"=>1, "Researcher"=>16, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>26, "Student > Postgraduate"=>4, "Other"=>9, "Student > Master"=>17, "Student > Bachelor"=>11, "Lecturer"=>2, "Professor"=>4}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Librarian"=>1, "Researcher"=>16, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>26, "Student > Postgraduate"=>4, "Other"=>9, "Student > Master"=>17, "Student > Bachelor"=>11, "Lecturer"=>2, "Professor"=>4}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Environmental Science"=>15, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>2, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>60, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>4, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>1, "Psychology"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>2, "Computer Science"=>2, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>4, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>3}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>4}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>2}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>4}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>3}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>60}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>2}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>2}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>4}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>15}, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>{"Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"New Zealand"=>2, "United States"=>2, "United Kingdom"=>2, "South Africa"=>1, "Australia"=>1, "Germany"=>1}, "group_count"=>3}

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  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1367063"], "description"=>"<p>When a greater percentage of Magellanic penguin chicks starved, a lower percentage fledged (<i>F</i><sub>1,24</sub> = 56.4, <i>P</i><0.001, <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.70, <i>N</i> = 26 years, 3250 chicks). The 2 open circles represent 1991 and 1999, when rain killed >40% of chicks each year, and were not included in the regression.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Global change ecology", "Population ecology", "Population biology", "Population Dynamics", "Zoology", "Animal behavior", "Ornithology", "Atmospheric science", "Atmospheric dynamics", "Atmospheric storms", "Climatology", "climate change", "Animal types", "Aquatic animals", "starvation", "fledging", "magellanic", "penguin"], "article_id"=>918496, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Medicine"], "users"=>["P. Dee Boersma", "Ginger A. Rebstock"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085602.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>12, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relationship_between_starvation_and_fledging_in_Magellanic_penguin_chicks_/918496", "title"=>"Relationship between starvation and fledging in Magellanic penguin chicks.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 04:35:44"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1367061"], "description"=>"<p>Starvation and predation killed chicks in all years; rain and heat killed chicks in some years. The overall mean percentages of chicks killed by rain and heat are smaller than the means for starvation and predation, but the variability is higher for rain and heat than for starvation and predation. In 2 years, rain killed more chicks than starvation and predation. Height of the inner arrows is proportional to the means. Height of the outer arrows is proportional to the mean ±1 standard deviation. Days in parentheses under each arrow refer to the range of ages at which a chick is most vulnerable to that cause of death. Means in the arrows do not total the overall mean mortality rate in the rectangle because the overall mean includes unknown and other causes of death. The list on the right indicates ways that climate change will increase the mean and variability of chick mortality by rain and heat. <i>N</i> = 28 years, 3496 chicks.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Global change ecology", "Population ecology", "Population biology", "Population Dynamics", "Zoology", "Animal behavior", "Ornithology", "Atmospheric science", "Atmospheric dynamics", "Atmospheric storms", "Climatology", "climate change", "Animal types", "Aquatic animals", "diagram", "causes", "magellanic", "penguin"], "article_id"=>918494, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Medicine"], "users"=>["P. Dee Boersma", "Ginger A. Rebstock"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085602.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Schematic_diagram_showing_causes_of_death_of_Magellanic_penguin_chicks_/918494", "title"=>"Schematic diagram showing causes of death of Magellanic penguin chicks.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 04:35:44"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1367070"], "description"=>"<p>We used multiple logistic regression, grouping on nest, with robust standard errors on 2482 chicks in 590 nests with 233 storms. Age = chick age (days) on date of storm (chicks that did not die in a storm were randomly assigned to a storm), Low = low temperature, * indicates interaction terms. Variables were standardized so the coefficient magnitudes indicate their relative strengths.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Global change ecology", "Population ecology", "Population biology", "Population Dynamics", "Zoology", "Animal behavior", "Ornithology", "Atmospheric science", "Atmospheric dynamics", "Atmospheric storms", "Climatology", "climate change", "Animal types", "Aquatic animals", "regression", "coefficients", "robust", "errors", "standardized", "variables", "probability", "magellanic", "penguin", "chick", "died", "punta"], "article_id"=>918503, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Medicine"], "users"=>["P. Dee Boersma", "Ginger A. Rebstock"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085602.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>30, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Partial_regression_coefficients_and_robust_standard_errors_for_standardized_variables_in_the_best_model_lowest_AIC_Table_1_for_the_probability_that_a_Magellanic_penguin_chick_died_in_a_storm_at_Punta_Tombo_Argentina_1983_2010_/918503", "title"=>"Partial regression coefficients and robust standard errors for standardized variables in the best model (lowest AIC; Table 1) for the probability that a Magellanic penguin chick died in a storm at Punta Tombo, Argentina, 1983–2010.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 04:35:44"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1367069"], "description"=>"<p>We used multiple logistic regression, grouping on nest, with robust standard errors on 1063 chicks in 377 nests with 233 storms. We added nest characteristics to the best model of chick age and weather variables (<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0085602#pone-0085602-t001\" target=\"_blank\">Table 1</a>). Type = nest type (burrow or bush), Quality = nest quality (good, average, or poor; see Materials and Methods), Orientation = nest-entrance orientation (N, E, S, W), <i>k</i> = number of parameters, AIC = Akaike’s Information Criterion, ΔAIC = the difference between AIC and the lowest AIC, LL = model log-likelihood, AIC weight = the probability that the model is the best model given the data and the set of candidate models. Pseudo <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> of the best model with nest characteristics was 0.57.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Global change ecology", "Population ecology", "Population biology", "Population Dynamics", "Zoology", "Animal behavior", "Ornithology", "Atmospheric science", "Atmospheric dynamics", "Atmospheric storms", "Climatology", "climate change", "Animal types", "Aquatic animals", "variables", "aic", "probability", "magellanic", "penguin", "chick", "died", "punta"], "article_id"=>918502, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Medicine"], "users"=>["P. Dee Boersma", "Ginger A. Rebstock"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085602.t003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>16, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Predictor_variables_and_model_AIC_values_for_the_probability_that_a_Magellanic_penguin_chick_died_in_a_storm_at_Punta_Tombo_Argentina_1983_8211_2010_for_models_including_nest_characteristics_/918502", "title"=>"Predictor variables and model AIC values for the probability that a Magellanic penguin chick died in a storm at Punta Tombo, Argentina, 1983–2010 for models including nest characteristics.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 04:35:44"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1367066"], "description"=>"<p>The laying interval (number of days between the 5<sup>th</sup> and 95<sup>th</sup> percentiles of laying dates) of 1<sup>st</sup> eggs of Magellanic penguins increased between 1983 and 2009 (<i>F</i><sub>1,25</sub> = 12.2, <i>P</i> = 0.002, <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.33, <i>N</i> = 8033 clutches).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Global change ecology", "Population ecology", "Population biology", "Population Dynamics", "Zoology", "Animal behavior", "Ornithology", "Atmospheric science", "Atmospheric dynamics", "Atmospheric storms", "Climatology", "climate change", "Animal types", "Aquatic animals", "laying", "magellanic", "penguins"], "article_id"=>918499, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Medicine"], "users"=>["P. Dee Boersma", "Ginger A. Rebstock"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085602.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>15, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Egg_laying_in_Magellanic_penguins_has_become_less_synchronous_/918499", "title"=>"Egg laying in Magellanic penguins has become less synchronous.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 04:35:44"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1367065"], "description"=>"<p>Mortality increased with lower minimum temperatures, but depended nonlinearly on chick age. <i>N</i> = 28 years, 2482 chicks alive during a storm; 206 died of exposure. Percent of chicks that died from age 0 to 55 days for 3 categories of low temperature for bush and burrow nests combined. 127 of 360 chicks died in 27 storms with low temperature of 1–5°C. 52 of 1058 chicks died in 97 storms with low temperature of 6–10°C. 27 of 1009 chicks died in 100 storms with low temperature of 11–15°C. No chicks died in 7 storms with low temperature >15°C (not shown).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Global change ecology", "Population ecology", "Population biology", "Population Dynamics", "Zoology", "Animal behavior", "Ornithology", "Atmospheric science", "Atmospheric dynamics", "Atmospheric storms", "Climatology", "climate change", "Animal types", "Aquatic animals", "penguin", "chick"], "article_id"=>918498, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Medicine"], "users"=>["P. Dee Boersma", "Ginger A. Rebstock"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085602.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Magellanic_penguin_chick_mortality_from_storms_by_age_and_low_temperature_/918498", "title"=>"Magellanic penguin chick mortality from storms, by age and low temperature.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 04:35:44"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1367068"], "description"=>"<p>Multiple logistic regression was used, grouping on nest, with robust standard errors on 2482 chicks in 590 nests with 233 storms. a = chick age (days) on date of storm (chicks that did not die in a storm were randomly assigned to a storm), a<sup>2</sup> = age squared, r = rain, l = low temperature, * indicates interaction terms, <i>k</i> = number of parameters, AIC = Akaike’s Information Criterion, ΔAIC = the difference between AIC and the lowest AIC, LL = model log-likelihood, AIC weight = the probability that the model is the best model given the data and the set of candidate models. Pseudo <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> of the best model was 0.57.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Global change ecology", "Population ecology", "Population biology", "Population Dynamics", "Zoology", "Animal behavior", "Ornithology", "Atmospheric science", "Atmospheric dynamics", "Atmospheric storms", "Climatology", "climate change", "Animal types", "Aquatic animals", "variables", "aic", "probability", "magellanic", "penguin", "chick", "died", "punta"], "article_id"=>918501, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Medicine"], "users"=>["P. Dee Boersma", "Ginger A. Rebstock"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085602.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>13, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Predictor_variables_and_model_AIC_values_for_the_probability_that_a_Magellanic_penguin_chick_died_in_a_storm_at_Punta_Tombo_Argentina_1983_8211_2010_/918501", "title"=>"Predictor variables and model AIC values for the probability that a Magellanic penguin chick died in a storm at Punta Tombo, Argentina, 1983–2010.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 04:35:44"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1367067"], "description"=>"<p>The solid lines represent the percentages of chicks likely to die in a storm with 40% of chicks hatched within 13 days. The broken lines represent the percentages of chicks likely to die in the same storm if the hatching interval is 27 days. Both curves assume a normal distribution of hatching dates within the interval and probabilities of dying as shown in Fig. 4 for 40 mm of rain. The curves cross at 19 days. Before that, a storm would kill more chicks if the hatch interval is 13 days; after that, a storm would kill more chicks if the hatch interval is 27 days. (A) Bush nests. (B) Burrow nests.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Global change ecology", "Population ecology", "Population biology", "Population Dynamics", "Zoology", "Animal behavior", "Ornithology", "Atmospheric science", "Atmospheric dynamics", "Atmospheric storms", "Climatology", "climate change", "Animal types", "Aquatic animals", "magellanic", "penguin", "chicks", "depended", "breeding"], "article_id"=>918500, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Medicine"], "users"=>["P. Dee Boersma", "Ginger A. Rebstock"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085602.g007", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>19, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_The_percentage_of_Magellanic_penguin_chicks_likely_to_die_in_a_storm_depended_on_breeding_synchrony_/918500", "title"=>"The percentage of Magellanic penguin chicks likely to die in a storm depended on breeding synchrony.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 04:35:44"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1367064"], "description"=>"<p>Mortality increased with higher rainfall, but depended nonlinearly on chick age. <i>N</i> = 28 years, 2482 chicks alive during a storm; 206 died of exposure. Top panels: A & C are the observed percentages of chicks that died from age 0 to 55 days for 4 levels of rain. (A) Bush nests: 24 of 44 chicks died in 4 storms with >45 mm rain. 59 of 138 chicks died in 4 storms with 40–45 mm rain. 20 of 47 chicks died in 3 storms with 20–25 mm rain. 40 of 215 chicks died in 14 storms with 10–15 mm rain. (C) Burrow nests: 4 of 10 chicks died in 4 storms with >45 mm rain. 7 of 28 chicks died in 4 storms with 40–45 mm rain. 0 of 16 chicks died in 3 storms with 20–25 mm rain. 6 of 60 chicks died in 14 storms with 10–15 mm rain. Bottom panels: B & D are the predicted probabilities of a chick dying in a storm. Probabilities were calculated from the best logistic regression model (lowest AIC) with age, precipitation, and low temperature standardized plus age squared and interactions. Low temperature and its interactions were held constant for these simulations. (B) Bush nests. (D) Burrow nests.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Global change ecology", "Population ecology", "Population biology", "Population Dynamics", "Zoology", "Animal behavior", "Ornithology", "Atmospheric science", "Atmospheric dynamics", "Atmospheric storms", "Climatology", "climate change", "Animal types", "Aquatic animals", "magellanic", "penguin"], "article_id"=>918497, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Medicine"], "users"=>["P. Dee Boersma", "Ginger A. Rebstock"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085602.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Storm_mortality_observed_and_predicted_in_Magellanic_penguin_chicks_by_nest_type_age_and_rainfall_/918497", "title"=>"Storm mortality (observed and predicted) in Magellanic penguin chicks, by nest type, age, and rainfall.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 04:35:44"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1367062"], "description"=>"<p>(A) Percentages of chicks by year. Predation (solid line) killed chicks in all years; rain (white bars), and heat (gray bars) killed chicks in some years and were sometimes important causes of death. <i>N</i> = 28 years, 3496 chicks. Percentages do not sum to 100 because other causes of death are not shown. (B) By chick age (days). The number of chicks that died from predation (solid line), rain (white bars), and heat (gray bars) divided by the total number of chicks that reached each age. Each chick was counted in each age until that chick died or disappeared. The sample size decreases with age: for 0 days of age, <i>N</i> = 3496 chicks; for 80 days of age, <i>N</i> = 625 chicks.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Global change ecology", "Population ecology", "Population biology", "Population Dynamics", "Zoology", "Animal behavior", "Ornithology", "Atmospheric science", "Atmospheric dynamics", "Atmospheric storms", "Climatology", "climate change", "Animal types", "Aquatic animals", "magellanic", "penguin", "chicks", "died"], "article_id"=>918495, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Medicine"], "users"=>["P. Dee Boersma", "Ginger A. Rebstock"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085602.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>26, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Percentages_of_Magellanic_penguin_chicks_that_died_from_predation_rain_and_heat_/918495", "title"=>"Percentages of Magellanic penguin chicks that died from predation, rain, and heat.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 04:35:44"}

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