Cross-Site Comparison of Land-Use Decision-Making and Its Consequences across Land Systems with a Generalized Agent-Based Model
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{"title"=>"Cross-site comparison of land-use decision-making and its consequences across land systems with a generalized agent-based model", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Nicholas R.", "last_name"=>"Magliocca", "scopus_author_id"=>"26039351200"}, {"first_name"=>"Daniel G.", "last_name"=>"Brown", "scopus_author_id"=>"56975641800"}, {"first_name"=>"Erle C.", "last_name"=>"Ellis", "scopus_author_id"=>"7201898915"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84900434351", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0086179", "sgr"=>"84900434351", "isbn"=>"1932-6203 (Electronic)\r1932-6203 (Linking)", "pmid"=>"24489696", "issn"=>"19326203", "pui"=>"373070570"}, "id"=>"1fba7358-75de-3b53-aaa5-3a583abcb8ab", "abstract"=>"Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM) as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model) landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model enhancement.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/crosssite-comparison-landuse-decisionmaking-consequences-across-land-systems-generalized-agentbased", "reader_count"=>83, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>3, "Researcher"=>21, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>6, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>32, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>10, "Other"=>1, "Lecturer"=>4, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>3}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>3, "Researcher"=>21, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>6, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>32, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>10, "Other"=>1, "Lecturer"=>4, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>3}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Engineering"=>4, "Unspecified"=>5, "Environmental Science"=>28, "Mathematics"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>15, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>2, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>1, "Physics and Astronomy"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>10, "Computer Science"=>2, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>12, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>4}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>2}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>10}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>12}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>15}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>2}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>1}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>5}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>28}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"New Zealand"=>1, "Canada"=>2, "Colombia"=>1, "Netherlands"=>1, "United States"=>2, "Philippines"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>1, "Germany"=>2}, "group_count"=>4}

Scopus | Further Information

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  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365515"], "description"=>"_", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Agricultural production", "Environmental impacts", "High-input farming", "Slash-and-burn cultivation", "Sustainable agriculture", "Computer modeling", "Economics", "Agricultural economics", "Development economics", "Economic development", "Economic geography", "geography", "geoinformatics", "Human geography", "Physical geography", "null", "sites", "imposed", "approximated", "capita", "spatial", "configurations", "activities", "constraints", "suitability"], "article_id"=>917315, "categories"=>["Medicine", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Nicholas R. Magliocca", "Daniel G. Brown", "Erle C. Ellis"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>12, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Model_performance_was_better_than_the_null_model_black_line_for_sites_in_which_the_imposed_8216_settlement_area_8217_approximated_the_actual_land_per_capita_a_and_spatial_configurations_of_land_users_production_and_consumption_activities_i_e_W_Shandong_a/917315", "title"=>"Model performance was better than the null model (black line) for sites in which the imposed ‘settlement area’ approximated the actual land per capita (a) and spatial configurations of land-users' production and consumption activities (i.e. W. Shandong), and/or constraints on land suitability for agriculture were present (b; 4 = no constraints; 1 = severe constraints).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 02:55:06"}
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  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365522"], "description"=>"_", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Agricultural production", "Environmental impacts", "High-input farming", "Slash-and-burn cultivation", "Sustainable agriculture", "Computer modeling", "Economics", "Agricultural economics", "Development economics", "Economic development", "Economic geography", "geography", "geoinformatics", "Human geography", "Physical geography", "applicability", "smallholder", "decision-making", "algorithm", "solutions"], "article_id"=>917322, "categories"=>["Medicine", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Nicholas R. Magliocca", "Daniel G. Brown", "Erle C. Ellis"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.g009", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>14, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Declining_applicability_of_the_underlying_smallholder_decision_making_framework_with_increasing_market_influence_measured_as_the_average_number_of_successful_genetic_algorithm_solutions_across_model_runs_/917322", "title"=>"Declining applicability of the underlying smallholder decision-making framework with increasing market influence, measured as the average number of successful genetic algorithm solutions across model runs.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 02:55:06"}
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  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365502"], "description"=>"_", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Agricultural production", "Environmental impacts", "High-input farming", "Slash-and-burn cultivation", "Sustainable agriculture", "Computer modeling", "Economics", "Agricultural economics", "Development economics", "Economic development", "Economic geography", "geography", "geoinformatics", "Human geography", "Physical geography", "asian", "china", "shandong", "hunan", "luoang", "laos"], "article_id"=>917302, "categories"=>["Medicine", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Nicholas R. Magliocca", "Daniel G. Brown", "Erle C. Ellis"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Locations_of_eastern_Asian_sites_two_in_China_western_Shandong_Province_China_a_and_Northern_Hunan_Province_China_b_two_in_Luoang_Namtha_Laos_c_/917302", "title"=>"Locations of eastern Asian sites: two in China (western Shandong Province, China (a) and Northern Hunan Province, China (b)), two in Luoang Namtha, Laos (c).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 02:55:06"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365516"], "description"=>"<p>The trend line presented with population density (b) serves only to group sites and does not indicate a derived statistical relationship.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Agricultural production", "Environmental impacts", "High-input farming", "Slash-and-burn cultivation", "Sustainable agriculture", "Computer modeling", "Economics", "Agricultural economics", "Development economics", "Economic development", "Economic geography", "geography", "geoinformatics", "Human geography", "Physical geography", "aggregate", "returns", "sites", "median", "cropping", "land-use"], "article_id"=>917316, "categories"=>["Medicine", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Nicholas R. Magliocca", "Daniel G. Brown", "Erle C. Ellis"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Variations_in_aggregate_returns_to_labor_across_sites_in_relation_to_median_cropping_frequency_a_and_population_density_b_illustrate_the_relative_roles_of_population_pressure_and_market_influence_in_land_use_decisions_/917316", "title"=>"Variations in aggregate returns to labor across sites in relation to median cropping frequency (a) and population density (b) illustrate the relative roles of population pressure and market influence in land-use decisions.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 02:55:06"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365513"], "description"=>"<p>Square data points represent model results from spatially variable model settings.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Agricultural production", "Environmental impacts", "High-input farming", "Slash-and-burn cultivation", "Sustainable agriculture", "Computer modeling", "Economics", "Agricultural economics", "Development economics", "Economic development", "Economic geography", "geography", "geoinformatics", "Human geography", "Physical geography", "rankings", "modeled", "counts", "sites", "compared", "null"], "article_id"=>917313, "categories"=>["Medicine", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Nicholas R. Magliocca", "Daniel G. Brown", "Erle C. Ellis"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Model_error_measured_as_correlation_among_rankings_of_and_distance_D_between_real_and_mean_modeled_land_use_cover_category_counts_across_sites_and_compared_to_the_null_model_/917313", "title"=>"Model error measured as correlation among rankings of and distance (D) between real and mean modeled land-use/cover category counts across sites and compared to the null model.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 02:55:06"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365544", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365545", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365546", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365547", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365548", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365549", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365550", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365551", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365552", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365553", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365554", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365555", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1365556"], "description"=>"<div><p>Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM) as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model) landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model enhancement.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Agricultural production", "Environmental impacts", "High-input farming", "Slash-and-burn cultivation", "Sustainable agriculture", "Computer modeling", "Economics", "Agricultural economics", "Development economics", "Economic development", "Economic geography", "geography", "geoinformatics", "Human geography", "Physical geography", "land-use", "decision-making", "consequences", "systems", "generalized", "agent-based"], "article_id"=>917343, "categories"=>["Medicine", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Nicholas R. Magliocca", "Daniel G. Brown", "Erle C. Ellis"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.s004", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.s005", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.s006", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.s007", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.s008", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.s009", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.s010", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.s011", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.s012", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086179.s013"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>10, "page_views"=>13, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Cross_Site_Comparison_of_Land_Use_Decision_Making_and_Its_Consequences_across_Land_Systems_with_a_Generalized_Agent_Based_Model_/917343", "title"=>"Cross-Site Comparison of Land-Use Decision-Making and Its Consequences across Land Systems with a Generalized Agent-Based Model", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2014-01-29 02:55:06"}

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