Modeling Tidal Marsh Distribution with Sea-Level Rise: Evaluating the Role of Vegetation, Sediment, and Upland Habitat in Marsh Resiliency
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{"title"=>"Modeling tidal marsh distribution with sea-level rise: Evaluating the role of vegetation, sediment, and upland habitat in marsh resiliency", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Lisa M.", "last_name"=>"Schile", "scopus_author_id"=>"8514039000"}, {"first_name"=>"John C.", "last_name"=>"Callaway", "scopus_author_id"=>"35493132900"}, {"first_name"=>"James T.", "last_name"=>"Morris", "scopus_author_id"=>"7405893178"}, {"first_name"=>"Diana", "last_name"=>"Stralberg", "scopus_author_id"=>"25643534300"}, {"first_name"=>"V.", "last_name"=>"Thomas Parker", "scopus_author_id"=>"6504118445"}, {"first_name"=>"Maggi", "last_name"=>"Kelly", "scopus_author_id"=>"7403315325"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84895790677", "sgr"=>"84895790677", "issn"=>"19326203", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0088760", "pmid"=>"24551156", "isbn"=>"1932-6203", "pui"=>"372555428"}, "id"=>"59d3af78-b668-3ce9-9e63-d9c3cb73ead5", "abstract"=>"Tidal marshes maintain elevation relative to sea level through accumulation of mineral and organic matter, yet this dynamic accumulation feedback mechanism has not been modeled widely in the context of accelerated sea-level rise. Uncertainties exist about tidal marsh resiliency to accelerated sea-level rise, reduced sediment supply, reduced plant productivity under increased inundation, and limited upland habitat for marsh migration. We examined marsh resiliency under these uncertainties using the Marsh Equilibrium Model, a mechanistic, elevation-based soil cohort model, using a rich data set of plant productivity and physical properties from sites across the estuarine salinity gradient. Four tidal marshes were chosen along this gradient: two islands and two with adjacent uplands. Varying century sea-level rise (52, 100, 165, 180 cm) and suspended sediment concentrations (100%, 50%, and 25% of current concentrations), we simulated marsh accretion across vegetated elevations for 100 years, applying the results to high spatial resolution digital elevation models to quantify potential changes in marsh distributions. At low rates of sea-level rise and mid-high sediment concentrations, all marshes maintained vegetated elevations indicative of mid/high marsh habitat. With century sea-level rise at 100 and 165 cm, marshes shifted to low marsh elevations; mid/high marsh elevations were found only in former uplands. At the highest century sea-level rise and lowest sediment concentrations, the island marshes became dominated by mudflat elevations. Under the same sediment concentrations, low salinity brackish marshes containing highly productive vegetation had slower elevation loss compared to more saline sites with lower productivity. A similar trend was documented when comparing against a marsh accretion model that did not model vegetation feedbacks. Elevation predictions using the Marsh Equilibrium Model highlight the importance of including vegetation responses to sea-level rise. These results also emphasize the importance of adjacent uplands for long-term marsh survival and incorporating such areas in conservation planning efforts.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/modeling-tidal-marsh-distribution-sealevel-rise-evaluating-role-vegetation-sediment-upland-habitat-m", "reader_count"=>132, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>10, "Researcher"=>26, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>43, "Student > Postgraduate"=>3, "Other"=>7, "Student > Master"=>28, "Student > Bachelor"=>5, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>3}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>10, "Researcher"=>26, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>43, "Student > Postgraduate"=>3, "Other"=>7, "Student > Master"=>28, "Student > Bachelor"=>5, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>3}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>10, "Engineering"=>5, "Environmental Science"=>51, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>2, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>36, "Computer Science"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>25, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>5}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>2}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>25}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>36}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>1}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>10}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>51}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Greece"=>1, "Canada"=>1, "Netherlands"=>1, "United States"=>5, "United Kingdom"=>1, "Italy"=>1, "Germany"=>1, "India"=>1, "Spain"=>1}, "group_count"=>6}

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  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1386840"], "description"=>"<p>Distribution of modeled marsh habitat types in 2110 at Browns Island with 52/century, 100 cm/century, and 180 cm/century sea-level rise at A,C,E) low and B,D,F) high suspended sediment concentrations, respectively.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Biomass (ecology)", "ecosystems", "ecosystem functioning", "Ecosystem modeling", "Plant ecology", "Plant-environment interactions", "Coastal ecology", "Evolutionary ecology", "Freshwater ecology", "Global change ecology", "Marine ecology", "geoinformatics", "Environmental systems modeling", "distributions", "browns"], "article_id"=>935348, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Lisa M. Schile", "John C. Callaway", "James T. Morris", "Diana Stralberg", "V. Thomas Parker", "Maggi Kelly"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088760.g008", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Habitat_distributions_at_Browns_Island_under_different_model_scenarios_/935348", "title"=>"Habitat distributions at Browns Island under different model scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-02-13 04:07:08"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1386837"], "description"=>"<p>Distribution of modeled marsh habitat types in 2110 at Rush Ranch with 52/century, 100 cm/century, and 180 cm/century sea-level rise at A,C,E) low and B,D,F) high suspended sediment concentrations, respectively.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Biomass (ecology)", "ecosystems", "ecosystem functioning", "Ecosystem modeling", "Plant ecology", "Plant-environment interactions", "Coastal ecology", "Evolutionary ecology", "Freshwater ecology", "Global change ecology", "Marine ecology", "geoinformatics", "Environmental systems modeling", "distributions"], "article_id"=>935345, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Lisa M. Schile", "John C. Callaway", "James T. Morris", "Diana Stralberg", "V. Thomas Parker", "Maggi Kelly"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088760.g007", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Habitat_distributions_at_Rush_Ranch_under_different_model_scenarios_/935345", "title"=>"Habitat distributions at Rush Ranch under different model scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-02-13 04:07:08"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1386835"], "description"=>"<p>Distribution of modeled marsh habitat types in 2110 at Coon Island with 52/century, 100 cm/century, and 180 cm/century sea-level rise at A,C,E) low and B,D,F) high suspended sediment concentrations, respectively.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Biomass (ecology)", "ecosystems", "ecosystem functioning", "Ecosystem modeling", "Plant ecology", "Plant-environment interactions", "Coastal ecology", "Evolutionary ecology", "Freshwater ecology", "Global change ecology", "Marine ecology", "geoinformatics", "Environmental systems modeling", "distributions", "coon"], "article_id"=>935343, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Lisa M. Schile", "John C. Callaway", "James T. Morris", "Diana Stralberg", "V. Thomas Parker", "Maggi Kelly"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088760.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Habitat_distributions_at_Coon_Island_under_different_model_scenarios_/935343", "title"=>"Habitat distributions at Coon Island under different model scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-02-13 04:07:08"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1386861", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1386862", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1386863", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1386864", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1386865", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1386866"], "description"=>"<div><p>Tidal marshes maintain elevation relative to sea level through accumulation of mineral and organic matter, yet this dynamic accumulation feedback mechanism has not been modeled widely in the context of accelerated sea-level rise. Uncertainties exist about tidal marsh resiliency to accelerated sea-level rise, reduced sediment supply, reduced plant productivity under increased inundation, and limited upland habitat for marsh migration. We examined marsh resiliency under these uncertainties using the Marsh Equilibrium Model, a mechanistic, elevation-based soil cohort model, using a rich data set of plant productivity and physical properties from sites across the estuarine salinity gradient. Four tidal marshes were chosen along this gradient: two islands and two with adjacent uplands. Varying century sea-level rise (52, 100, 165, 180 cm) and suspended sediment concentrations (100%, 50%, and 25% of current concentrations), we simulated marsh accretion across vegetated elevations for 100 years, applying the results to high spatial resolution digital elevation models to quantify potential changes in marsh distributions. At low rates of sea-level rise and mid-high sediment concentrations, all marshes maintained vegetated elevations indicative of mid/high marsh habitat. With century sea-level rise at 100 and 165 cm, marshes shifted to low marsh elevations; mid/high marsh elevations were found only in former uplands. At the highest century sea-level rise and lowest sediment concentrations, the island marshes became dominated by mudflat elevations. Under the same sediment concentrations, low salinity brackish marshes containing highly productive vegetation had slower elevation loss compared to more saline sites with lower productivity. A similar trend was documented when comparing against a marsh accretion model that did not model vegetation feedbacks. Elevation predictions using the Marsh Equilibrium Model highlight the importance of including vegetation responses to sea-level rise. These results also emphasize the importance of adjacent uplands for long-term marsh survival and incorporating such areas in conservation planning efforts.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Biomass (ecology)", "ecosystems", "ecosystem functioning", "Ecosystem modeling", "Plant ecology", "Plant-environment interactions", "Coastal ecology", "Evolutionary ecology", "Freshwater ecology", "Global change ecology", "Marine ecology", "geoinformatics", "Environmental systems modeling", "tidal", "marsh", "sea-level", "evaluating", "upland"], "article_id"=>935356, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Lisa M. Schile", "John C. Callaway", "James T. Morris", "Diana Stralberg", "V. Thomas Parker", "Maggi Kelly"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088760.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088760.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088760.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088760.s004", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088760.s005", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088760.s006"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Modeling_Tidal_Marsh_Distribution_with_Sea_Level_Rise_Evaluating_the_Role_of_Vegetation_Sediment_and_Upland_Habitat_in_Marsh_Resiliency_/935356", "title"=>"Modeling Tidal Marsh Distribution with Sea-Level Rise: Evaluating the Role of Vegetation, Sediment, and Upland Habitat in Marsh Resiliency", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2014-02-13 04:07:08"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1386814"], "description"=>"<p>Modeled changes in habitat type cover over time for each suspended sediment concentration and sea-level rise scenario for A) China Camp and B) Coon Island, where pixels are color-coded by elevations indicative of unvegetated (brown), low marsh (light green), mid/high marsh (medium green), and upland (beige) elevations.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Biomass (ecology)", "ecosystems", "ecosystem functioning", "Ecosystem modeling", "Plant ecology", "Plant-environment interactions", "Coastal ecology", "Evolutionary ecology", "Freshwater ecology", "Global change ecology", "Marine ecology", "geoinformatics", "Environmental systems modeling", "scenarios", "salinity"], "article_id"=>935338, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Lisa M. Schile", "John C. Callaway", "James T. Morris", "Diana Stralberg", "V. Thomas Parker", "Maggi Kelly"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088760.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Change_in_habitat_cover_under_all_model_scenarios_at_high_salinity_marshes_/935338", "title"=>"Change in habitat cover under all model scenarios at high salinity marshes.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-02-13 04:07:08"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1386844"], "description"=>"<p>Site characteristics of marshes used for model calibration.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Biomass (ecology)", "ecosystems", "ecosystem functioning", "Ecosystem modeling", "Plant ecology", "Plant-environment interactions", "Coastal ecology", "Evolutionary ecology", "Freshwater ecology", "Global change ecology", "Marine ecology", "geoinformatics", "Environmental systems modeling", "marshes"], "article_id"=>935352, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Lisa M. Schile", "John C. Callaway", "James T. Morris", "Diana Stralberg", "V. Thomas Parker", "Maggi Kelly"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088760.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Site_characteristics_of_marshes_used_for_model_calibration_/935352", "title"=>"Site characteristics of marshes used for model calibration.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-02-13 04:07:08"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1386842"], "description"=>"<p>Area (ha) of each habitat type in 2010 with percentage of coverage in parentheses.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Biomass (ecology)", "ecosystems", "ecosystem functioning", "Ecosystem modeling", "Plant ecology", "Plant-environment interactions", "Coastal ecology", "Evolutionary ecology", "Freshwater ecology", "Global change ecology", "Marine ecology", "geoinformatics", "Environmental systems modeling", "2010"], "article_id"=>935350, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Lisa M. Schile", "John C. Callaway", "James T. Morris", "Diana Stralberg", "V. Thomas Parker", "Maggi Kelly"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088760.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Area_ha_of_each_habitat_type_in_2010_with_percentage_of_coverage_in_parentheses_/935350", "title"=>"Area (ha) of each habitat type in 2010 with percentage of coverage in parentheses.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-02-13 04:07:08"}

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Relative Metric

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