Replicating the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide: A Total Forensic Cohort Study
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{"title"=>"Replicating the violence risk appraisal guide: A total forensic cohort study", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Astrid", "last_name"=>"Rossegger", "scopus_author_id"=>"14032086300"}, {"first_name"=>"Jérôme", "last_name"=>"Endrass", "scopus_author_id"=>"6603300577"}, {"first_name"=>"Juliane", "last_name"=>"Gerth", "scopus_author_id"=>"36623490500"}, {"first_name"=>"Jay P.", "last_name"=>"Singh", "scopus_author_id"=>"7404421743"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"pmid"=>"24632561", "sgr"=>"84897997532", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0091845", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84897997532", "pui"=>"372801892", "isbn"=>"1932-6203", "issn"=>"19326203"}, "id"=>"5f22501f-7dc8-3bf2-9975-d6b5134696b1", "abstract"=>"INTRODUCTION: The performance of violence risk assessment instruments can be primarily investigated by analysing two psychometric properties: discrimination and calibration. Although many studies have examined the discrimination capacity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and other actuarial risk assessment tools, few have evaluated how well calibrated these instruments are. The aim of the present investigation was to replicate the development study of the VRAG in Europe including measurements of discrimination and calibration.\\n\\nMETHOD: Using a prospective study design, we assessed a total cohort of violent offenders in the Zurich Canton of Switzerland using the VRAG prior to discharge from prisons, secure facilities, and outpatient clinics. Assessors adhered strictly to the assessment protocol set out in the instrument's manual. After controlling for attrition, 206 offenders were followed in the community for a fixed period of 7 years. We used charges and convictions for subsequent violent offenses as the outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was conducted to measure discrimination, and Sanders' decomposition of the Brier score as well as Bayesian credible intervals were calculated to measure calibration.\\n\\nRESULTS: The discrimination of the VRAG's risk bins was modest (area under the curve = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.63-0.81, p<0.05). However, the calibration of the tool was poor, with Sanders' calibration score suggesting an average assessment error of 21% in the probabilistic estimates associated with each bin. The Bayesian credible intervals revealed that in five out of nine risk bins the intervals did not contain the expected risk rates.\\n\\nDISCUSSION: Measurement of the calibration validity of risk assessment instruments needs to be improved, as has been done with respect to discrimination. Additional replication studies that focus on the calibration of actuarial risk assessment instruments are needed. Meanwhile, we recommend caution when using the VRAG probabilistic risk estimates in practice.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/replicating-violence-risk-appraisal-guide-total-forensic-cohort-study", "reader_count"=>31, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Researcher"=>4, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>8, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>8, "Student > Bachelor"=>3, "Lecturer"=>2, "Professor"=>3}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Researcher"=>4, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>8, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>8, "Student > Bachelor"=>3, "Lecturer"=>2, "Professor"=>3}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>1, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>4, "Arts and Humanities"=>1, "Psychology"=>14, "Social Sciences"=>8, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>4}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>8}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>14}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>{"Nursing and Health Professions"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>2}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Argentina"=>1, "Sweden"=>1, "United States"=>1}, "group_count"=>3}

Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1421149"], "description"=>"<p><i>Note. n</i> = absolute numbers of recidivists; – = Not Applicable;</p>1<p>VRAG development sample.</p>2<p>Rates for men only.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["statistics", "Biostatistics", "Statistical methods", "Non-clinical medicine", "Health care policy", "Health statistics", "law", "Criminal justice system", "Criminal investigations", "Criminal punishment", "prisons", "psychology", "behavior", "Sociology", "Crime and criminology", "studies", "investigating", "calibration", "vrag", "recidivism"], "article_id"=>962796, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Medicine", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Astrid Rossegger", "Jerome Endrass", "Juliane Gerth", "Jay P. Singh"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091845.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>7, "page_views"=>14, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Previous_studies_investigating_calibration_of_the_VRAG_with_respect_to_recidivism_rate_/962796", "title"=>"Previous studies investigating calibration of the VRAG with respect to recidivism rate.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-03-14 04:07:10"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1421146"], "description"=>"1<p>Bayesian credible intervals were calculated using the Jeffreys prior for the Beta distribution.</p>2<p>VRAG development sample.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["statistics", "Biostatistics", "Statistical methods", "Non-clinical medicine", "Health care policy", "Health statistics", "law", "Criminal justice system", "Criminal investigations", "Criminal punishment", "prisons", "psychology", "behavior", "Sociology", "Crime and criminology", "observed", "bin", "recidivism", "rates"], "article_id"=>962793, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Medicine", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Astrid Rossegger", "Jerome Endrass", "Juliane Gerth", "Jay P. Singh"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091845.t004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>37, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Normative_and_observed_risk_bin_distribution_and_recidivism_rates_for_the_VRAG_/962793", "title"=>"Normative and observed risk bin distribution and recidivism rates for the VRAG.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-03-14 04:07:10"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1421144"], "description"=>"<p>Sample selection process for the total forensic cohort from the Zurich Canton of Switzerland.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["statistics", "Biostatistics", "Statistical methods", "Non-clinical medicine", "Health care policy", "Health statistics", "law", "Criminal justice system", "Criminal investigations", "Criminal punishment", "prisons", "psychology", "behavior", "Sociology", "Crime and criminology", "forensic", "cohort", "zurich", "canton"], "article_id"=>962791, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Medicine", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Astrid Rossegger", "Jerome Endrass", "Juliane Gerth", "Jay P. Singh"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091845.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>21, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Sample_selection_process_for_the_total_forensic_cohort_from_the_Zurich_Canton_of_Switzerland_/962791", "title"=>"Sample selection process for the total forensic cohort from the Zurich Canton of Switzerland.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-03-14 04:07:10"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1421145"], "description"=>"<p>Observed 7-year post-discharge recidivism rates in the VRAG development sample and the present study including Bayesian credible intervals calculated by using the Jeffreys prior for the Beta distribution.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["statistics", "Biostatistics", "Statistical methods", "Non-clinical medicine", "Health care policy", "Health statistics", "law", "Criminal justice system", "Criminal investigations", "Criminal punishment", "prisons", "psychology", "behavior", "Sociology", "Crime and criminology", "7-year", "post-discharge", "recidivism", "rates", "vrag", "bayesian", "credible", "intervals", "calculated", "jeffreys", "beta"], "article_id"=>962792, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Medicine", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Astrid Rossegger", "Jerome Endrass", "Juliane Gerth", "Jay P. Singh"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091845.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>110, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Observed_7_year_post_discharge_recidivism_rates_in_the_VRAG_development_sample_and_the_present_study_including_Bayesian_credible_intervals_calculated_by_using_the_Jeffreys_prior_for_the_Beta_distribution_/962792", "title"=>"Observed 7-year post-discharge recidivism rates in the VRAG development sample and the present study including Bayesian credible intervals calculated by using the Jeffreys prior for the Beta distribution.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-03-14 04:07:10"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1421148"], "description"=>"<p><i>Note.</i> Replication criteria are derived from the systematic review of Rossegger and colleagues <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0091845#pone.0091845-Rossegger1\" target=\"_blank\">[15]</a>.</p>1<p>In Switzerland, charges are only displayed in criminal records while a subject is under investigation.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["statistics", "Biostatistics", "Statistical methods", "Non-clinical medicine", "Health care policy", "Health statistics", "law", "Criminal justice system", "Criminal investigations", "Criminal punishment", "prisons", "psychology", "behavior", "Sociology", "Crime and criminology", "vrag"], "article_id"=>962795, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Medicine", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Astrid Rossegger", "Jerome Endrass", "Juliane Gerth", "Jay P. Singh"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091845.t003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>6, "page_views"=>15, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Match_of_design_and_demographic_characteristics_of_the_present_sample_with_that_from_the_VRAG_development_study_/962795", "title"=>"Match of design and demographic characteristics of the present sample with that from the VRAG development study.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-03-14 04:07:10"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1421147"], "description"=>"<p><i>Note.</i> – = Not Applicable; NR = Not Reported; LoFU = Length of follow-up.</p>1<p>VRAG development sample.</p>2<p>Rates for men only.</p>3<p>Out of 12 matching criteria established by Rossegger and colleagues <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0091845#pone.0091845-Rossegger1\" target=\"_blank\">[15]</a>.</p>4<p>Base rate of violent (including sexual) recidivism for offenders with a VRAG score.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["statistics", "Biostatistics", "Statistical methods", "Non-clinical medicine", "Health care policy", "Health statistics", "law", "Criminal justice system", "Criminal investigations", "Criminal punishment", "prisons", "psychology", "behavior", "Sociology", "Crime and criminology", "studies", "investigating", "calibration"], "article_id"=>962794, "categories"=>["Mathematics", "Medicine", "Sociology"], "users"=>["Astrid Rossegger", "Jerome Endrass", "Juliane Gerth", "Jay P. Singh"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091845.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>22, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Previous_studies_investigating_calibration_of_the_VRAG_/962794", "title"=>"Previous studies investigating calibration of the VRAG.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-03-14 04:07:10"}

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