A Multi-Level Geographical Study of Italian Political Elections from Twitter Data
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Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"A multi-level geographical study of italian political elections from twitter data", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Guido", "last_name"=>"Caldarelli", "scopus_author_id"=>"55139905100"}, {"first_name"=>"Alessandro", "last_name"=>"Chessa", "scopus_author_id"=>"6604050350"}, {"first_name"=>"Fabio", "last_name"=>"Pammolli", "scopus_author_id"=>"6603423982"}, {"first_name"=>"Gabriele", "last_name"=>"Pompa", "scopus_author_id"=>"56088205600"}, {"first_name"=>"Michelangelo", "last_name"=>"Puliga", "scopus_author_id"=>"15077156900"}, {"first_name"=>"Massimo", "last_name"=>"Riccaboni", "scopus_author_id"=>"6603650921"}, {"first_name"=>"Gianni", "last_name"=>"Riotta", "scopus_author_id"=>"56157833600"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84900421600", "pui"=>"373074642", "pmid"=>"24802857", "issn"=>"19326203", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0095809", "sgr"=>"84900421600"}, "id"=>"7dac8d86-e608-335a-acda-1b59aa5eb27e", "abstract"=>"In this paper we present an analysis of the behavior of Italian Twitter users during national political elections. We monitor the volumes of the tweets related to the leaders of the various political parties and we compare them to the elections results. Furthermore, we study the topics that are associated with the co-occurrence of two politicians in the same tweet. We cannot conclude, from a simple statistical analysis of tweet volume and their time evolution, that it is possible to precisely predict the election outcome (or at least not in our case of study that was characterized by a \"too-close-to-call\" scenario). On the other hand, we found that the volume of tweets and their change in time provide a very good proxy of the final results. We present this analysis both at a national level and at smaller levels, ranging from the regions composing the country to macro-areas (North, Center, South).", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/multilevel-geographical-study-italian-political-elections-twitter-data", "reader_count"=>51, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>3, "Researcher"=>7, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>19, "Student > Postgraduate"=>4, "Student > Master"=>7, "Student > Bachelor"=>2, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>4}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>3, "Researcher"=>7, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>19, "Student > Postgraduate"=>4, "Student > Master"=>7, "Student > Bachelor"=>2, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>4}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>5, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>1, "Arts and Humanities"=>1, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>2, "Chemistry"=>1, "Computer Science"=>11, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2, "Engineering"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>3, "Mathematics"=>2, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>1, "Design"=>2, "Physics and Astronomy"=>7, "Social Sciences"=>10}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>1}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>10}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>7}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>2}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>5}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>3}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>1}, "Design"=>{"Design"=>2}, "Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Chemistry"=>{"Chemistry"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>1}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>11}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>2}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Venezuela"=>1, "United States"=>1, "Denmark"=>1, "Italy"=>5, "United Kingdom"=>1, "Switzerland"=>2, "Spain"=>1}, "group_count"=>16}

Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487069"], "description"=>"<p>The two categories used to compare their behavior are the Main Topics discussed during the election period and the mentions of the most important TV shows related to politics.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computer applications", "Web-based applications", "Information technology", "databases", "Natural Language Processing", "text mining", "physics", "Statistical mechanics", "cosine", "couples", "politicians", "spider"], "article_id"=>1018093, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Guido Caldarelli", "Alessandro Chessa", "Fabio Pammolli", "Gabriele Pompa", "Michelangelo Puliga", "Massimo Riccaboni", "Gianni Riotta"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.t005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_In_this_table_we_present_the_cosine_similarity_between_all_the_possible_couples_of_politicians_present_in_the_spider_plots_/1018093", "title"=>"In this table we present the cosine similarity between all the possible couples of politicians present in the spider plots.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-05-06 03:33:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487068"], "description"=>"<p>A correct prediction means that the ratio of votes and the RS should be either less or more than 1. We note that this parameter recovers all the the ranks with the exception of M5S-PDL, PD-PDL where no prediction is given at any rate because within the error the ratio can be both larger and smaller than one. We indicate this exception with a bold font number.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computer applications", "Web-based applications", "Information technology", "databases", "Natural Language Processing", "text mining", "physics", "Statistical mechanics"], "article_id"=>1018092, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Guido Caldarelli", "Alessandro Chessa", "Fabio Pammolli", "Gabriele Pompa", "Michelangelo Puliga", "Massimo Riccaboni", "Gianni Riotta"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_The_error_is_the_statistical_error_on_the_various_values_computed_/1018092", "title"=>"The error is the statistical error on the various values computed.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-05-06 03:33:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487065"], "description"=>"<p>The total number of voters is 35,270,926 from which we have to remove 1,265,171 not “valid votes” (359,279 of which left blank). The percentage are then computed on the total of 34,005,755 “valid” votes. All the above figures do not take into consideration the region “Valle d'Aosta”. As reported above in “Small” we aggregated the votes of the Lega, Futuro e Libertà, Unione Di Centro, Fratelli d'Italia, Sinistra Ecologia e Libertà. For this reason the numbers do not equal the total number of votes, nor do the percentages add up to 100 but rather to 92.34. In other words, other minor parties are missing and have been not monitored on Twitter. From the third column we present the percentage of votes and then the percentage of tweets at 1, 2 and 10 days before elections.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computer applications", "Web-based applications", "Information technology", "databases", "Natural Language Processing", "text mining", "physics", "Statistical mechanics", "reports", "italian", "taken", "been", "attached", "supplementary"], "article_id"=>1018089, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Guido Caldarelli", "Alessandro Chessa", "Fabio Pammolli", "Gabriele Pompa", "Michelangelo Puliga", "Massimo Riccaboni", "Gianni Riotta"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_The_second_column_reports_the_official_data_from_the_Italian_Interior_Minister_these_data_taken_from_http_elezionistorico_interno_it_index_php_tpel_C_have_been_attached_in_the_Supplementary_Information_/1018089", "title"=>"The second column reports the official data from the Italian Interior Minister; these data, taken from http://elezionistorico.interno.it/index.php?tpel=C, have been attached in the Supplementary Information.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-05-06 03:33:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487064"], "description"=>"<p>For the case of the the macro-area Southern Italy and Islands, top left: the plot of the RS parameter computed on an average of 10 days centered on the specific day on the x-axis; top right: the values of the relative supports with no averaging day after day. The parties have been ordered according to their final rank at the elections at the national scale. Since parties' ranking differ locally, some of the plots are actually below 1. Below we have a detailed plot of the tweet volume in the final days before the elections, where changes of linear slopes are especially evident during voting days (yellow in all the figures).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computer applications", "Web-based applications", "Information technology", "databases", "Natural Language Processing", "text mining", "physics", "Statistical mechanics", "twitter", "italy"], "article_id"=>1018088, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Guido Caldarelli", "Alessandro Chessa", "Fabio Pammolli", "Gabriele Pompa", "Michelangelo Puliga", "Massimo Riccaboni", "Gianni Riotta"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relative_Support_from_the_Twitter_volumes_Southern_Italy_and_Islands_/1018088", "title"=>"Relative Support from the Twitter volumes, Southern Italy and Islands.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-05-06 03:33:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487062"], "description"=>"<p>For the case of the the macro-area Central Italy, top left: the plot of the RS parameter computed on an average of 10 days centered on the specific day on the x-axis; top right: the values of the RS parameters with no averaging day after day. The parties have been ordered according to their final rank at the elections at the national scale. Since parties' ranking differ locally, some of the plots are actually below 1. Below we have a detailed plot of the tweet volume in the final days before the elections, where changes of linear slopes are especially evident during voting days (yellow in all the figures).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computer applications", "Web-based applications", "Information technology", "databases", "Natural Language Processing", "text mining", "physics", "Statistical mechanics", "twitter"], "article_id"=>1018086, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Guido Caldarelli", "Alessandro Chessa", "Fabio Pammolli", "Gabriele Pompa", "Michelangelo Puliga", "Massimo Riccaboni", "Gianni Riotta"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relative_Support_from_the_Twitter_volumes_Central_Italy_/1018086", "title"=>"Relative Support from the Twitter volumes, Central Italy.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-05-06 03:33:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487053"], "description"=>"<p>In this figure we show two spider plots related to the candidates and two main hashtag categories: TV shows and the main terms used in the political discussion shared by all the candidates. Amongst those we selected the 8 most popular. The number of tweets obtained by each candidate associated with a specific hashtag are reported on a logarithmic scale on the relative axis. Mr. Berlusconi outperforms all the others in the TV show section, while in the other case the concepts and words attached to Mr. Bersani (left-wing party) are not that different from those related to Mr. Monti (moderate party), with the notable exception of the word “lavoro” (employment). In both cases the spider profile of Mr. Grillo is sensibly different from all the others.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computer applications", "Web-based applications", "Information technology", "databases", "Natural Language Processing", "text mining", "physics", "Statistical mechanics", "tv", "relevance"], "article_id"=>1018083, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Guido Caldarelli", "Alessandro Chessa", "Fabio Pammolli", "Gabriele Pompa", "Michelangelo Puliga", "Massimo Riccaboni", "Gianni Riotta"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Spider_plot_of_TV_shows_and_topic_relevance_for_each_candidate_/1018083", "title"=>"Spider plot of TV shows, and topic relevance for each candidate.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-05-06 03:33:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487073", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487074", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487076", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487077", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487078", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487080"], "description"=>"<div><p>In this paper we present an analysis of the behavior of Italian Twitter users during national political elections. We monitor the volumes of the tweets related to the leaders of the various political parties and we compare them to the elections results. Furthermore, we study the topics that are associated with the co-occurrence of two politicians in the same tweet. We cannot conclude, from a simple statistical analysis of tweet volume and their time evolution, that it is possible to precisely predict the election outcome (or at least not in our case of study that was characterized by a “too-close-to-call” scenario). On the other hand, we found that the volume of tweets and their change in time provide a very good proxy of the final results. We present this analysis both at a national level and at smaller levels, ranging from the regions composing the country to macro-areas (North, Center, South).</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computer applications", "Web-based applications", "Information technology", "databases", "Natural Language Processing", "text mining", "physics", "Statistical mechanics", "multi-level", "geographical", "italian", "elections", "twitter"], "article_id"=>1018097, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Guido Caldarelli", "Alessandro Chessa", "Fabio Pammolli", "Gabriele Pompa", "Michelangelo Puliga", "Massimo Riccaboni", "Gianni Riotta"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.s004", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.s005", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.s006"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>6, "page_views"=>18, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_A_Multi_Level_Geographical_Study_of_Italian_Political_Elections_from_Twitter_Data_/1018097", "title"=>"A Multi-Level Geographical Study of Italian Political Elections from Twitter Data", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2014-05-06 03:33:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487052"], "description"=>"<p>Top left: the plot of the RS parameter computed on an average of 10 days centered on the specific day on the x-axis; top right: the values of the RS parameter with no averaging day after day. The parties have been ordered according to their final rank at the elections, with the exception of the ratio SC-SMALL. Note how most of the values are above 1, correspondingly SC-SMALL is below one. Below we have a detailed plot of the tweet volume in the final days before the elections, where changes of linear slopes are especially evident during voting days (yellow in all the figures). The yellow and green vertical lines represent the election day and the day after respectively (when exit-polls are released).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computer applications", "Web-based applications", "Information technology", "databases", "Natural Language Processing", "text mining", "physics", "Statistical mechanics", "twitter"], "article_id"=>1018082, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Guido Caldarelli", "Alessandro Chessa", "Fabio Pammolli", "Gabriele Pompa", "Michelangelo Puliga", "Massimo Riccaboni", "Gianni Riotta"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>2, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relative_Support_from_the_Twitter_volumes_entire_country_/1018082", "title"=>"Relative Support from the Twitter volumes, entire country.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-05-06 03:33:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487071"], "description"=>"<p>Every point corresponds to one hour, so that the whole period analyzed goes from 10 days before the elections to 2 days before the election. We keep the list of ratios the same as in the main paper, reflecting the strength of parties at a national level, despite the fact that some of these ratios are now different. “Ratio” represents the ratio of votes obtained by the two parties in the first column, i.e. votes(A)/votes(B). Even the numerical agreement with the ratio in terms of votes seems rather good. Only the cells whose font is bond present deviations from expected.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computer applications", "Web-based applications", "Information technology", "databases", "Natural Language Processing", "text mining", "physics", "Statistical mechanics", "rs", "computed", "ensemble", "192", "points", "retrospectively", "days"], "article_id"=>1018094, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Guido Caldarelli", "Alessandro Chessa", "Fabio Pammolli", "Gabriele Pompa", "Michelangelo Puliga", "Massimo Riccaboni", "Gianni Riotta"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.t004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_The_RS_is_computed_on_an_ensemble_of_192_points_starting_retrospectively_at_two_days_before_the_election_day_/1018094", "title"=>"The RS is computed on an ensemble of 192 points starting retrospectively at two days before the election day.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-05-06 03:33:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487067"], "description"=>"<p>The total number of voters is 16,700,117 (16,174,594 valid) for Northern Italy, 7,218,645 (6,989,394 valid) for Central Italy, 11,352,164 (10,841,767 valid) for Southern Italy and Islands. Twitter values are reported from the third column; in particular the percentage of tweets at 1, 2 and 10 days before elections.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computer applications", "Web-based applications", "Information technology", "databases", "Natural Language Processing", "text mining", "physics", "Statistical mechanics", "reports", "italian"], "article_id"=>1018091, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Guido Caldarelli", "Alessandro Chessa", "Fabio Pammolli", "Gabriele Pompa", "Michelangelo Puliga", "Massimo Riccaboni", "Gianni Riotta"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.t003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_The_second_column_reports_the_official_data_from_Italian_Interior_Minister_/1018091", "title"=>"The second column reports the official data from Italian Interior Minister.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-05-06 03:33:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487054"], "description"=>"<p>For the case of the the macro-area Northern Italy, top left: the plot of the RS parameter computed on an average of 10 days centered on the specific day on the x-axis; top right: the values of the RS parameters with no averaging day after day. The parties have been ordered according to their final rank at the elections at the national scale. Since parties ranking differ locally, some of the plots are actually below 1. Below we have a detailed plot of the tweet volume in the final days before the elections, where changes of linear slopes are especially evident during voting days (yellow in all the figures).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computer applications", "Web-based applications", "Information technology", "databases", "Natural Language Processing", "text mining", "physics", "Statistical mechanics", "twitter"], "article_id"=>1018084, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Guido Caldarelli", "Alessandro Chessa", "Fabio Pammolli", "Gabriele Pompa", "Michelangelo Puliga", "Massimo Riccaboni", "Gianni Riotta"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>6, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relative_Support_from_the_Twitter_volumes_Northern_Italy_/1018084", "title"=>"Relative Support from the Twitter volumes, Northern Italy.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-05-06 03:33:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1487051"], "description"=>"<p>On top: the pie-chart of the results obtained in the election by the parties. Then the forecast from the Twitter time series frozen at three different final times. Below: the cumulative number of tweets for the various parties and their daily evolution. The yellow and green vertical lines represent the election day and the day after respectively (when exit-polls are released).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computer applications", "Web-based applications", "Information technology", "databases", "Natural Language Processing", "text mining", "physics", "Statistical mechanics", "elections", "twitter"], "article_id"=>1018081, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Guido Caldarelli", "Alessandro Chessa", "Fabio Pammolli", "Gabriele Pompa", "Michelangelo Puliga", "Massimo Riccaboni", "Gianni Riotta"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095809.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Results_of_the_elections_and_Twitter_volumes_/1018081", "title"=>"Results of the elections and Twitter volumes.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-05-06 03:33:07"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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Relative Metric

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