A Re-Evaluation of the Size of the White Shark (Carcharodon carcharias) Population off California, USA
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{"title"=>"A re-evaluation of the size of the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) population off California, USA", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"George H.", "last_name"=>"Burgess", "scopus_author_id"=>"56220798300"}, {"first_name"=>"Barry D.", "last_name"=>"Bruce", "scopus_author_id"=>"15043633600"}, {"first_name"=>"Gregor M.", "last_name"=>"Cailliet", "scopus_author_id"=>"6603895830"}, {"first_name"=>"Kenneth J.", "last_name"=>"Goldman", "scopus_author_id"=>"35748637300"}, {"first_name"=>"R. Dean", "last_name"=>"Grubbs", "scopus_author_id"=>"9248343600"}, {"first_name"=>"Christopher G.", "last_name"=>"Lowe", "scopus_author_id"=>"7201725117"}, {"first_name"=>"M. Aaron", "last_name"=>"MacNeil", "scopus_author_id"=>"35275320300"}, {"first_name"=>"Henry F.", "last_name"=>"Mollet", "scopus_author_id"=>"6602104515"}, {"first_name"=>"Kevin C.", "last_name"=>"Weng", "scopus_author_id"=>"7003344293"}, {"first_name"=>"John B.", "last_name"=>"O'Sullivan", "scopus_author_id"=>"16646806000"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"pmid"=>"24932483", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0098078", "sgr"=>"84903281098", "isbn"=>"1932-6203 (Electronic)\\r1932-6203 (Linking)", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84903281098", "issn"=>"19326203", "pui"=>"373394551"}, "id"=>"572acaee-2914-3a51-91fd-04c8b0ad84cd", "abstract"=>"White sharks are highly migratory and segregate by sex, age and size. Unlike marine mammals, they neither surface to breathe nor frequent haul-out sites, hindering generation of abundance data required to estimate population size. A recent tag-recapture study used photographic identifications of white sharks at two aggregation sites to estimate abundance in \"central California\" at 219 mature and sub-adult individuals. They concluded this represented approximately one-half of the total abundance of mature and sub-adult sharks in the entire eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP). This low estimate generated great concern within the conservation community, prompting petitions for governmental endangered species designations. We critically examine that study and find violations of model assumptions that, when considered in total, lead to population underestimates. We also use a Bayesian mixture model to demonstrate that the inclusion of transient sharks, characteristic of white shark aggregation sites, would substantially increase abundance estimates for the adults and sub-adults in the surveyed sub-population. Using a dataset obtained from the same sampling locations and widely accepted demographic methodology, our analysis indicates a minimum all-life stages population size of >2000 individuals in the California subpopulation is required to account for the number and size range of individual sharks observed at the two sampled sites. Even accounting for methodological and conceptual biases, an extrapolation of these data to estimate the white shark population size throughout the ENP is inappropriate. The true ENP white shark population size is likely several-fold greater as both our study and the original published estimate exclude non-aggregating sharks and those that independently aggregate at other important ENP sites. Accurately estimating the central California and ENP white shark population size requires methodologies that account for biases introduced by sampling a limited number of sites and that account for all life history stages across the species' range of habitats.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/reevaluation-size-white-shark-carcharodon-carcharias-population-california-usa", "reader_count"=>90, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>5, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Researcher"=>24, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>19, "Student > Postgraduate"=>3, "Other"=>3, "Student > Master"=>14, "Student > Bachelor"=>15, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>3}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>5, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Researcher"=>24, "Student > Ph. D. 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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1536362"], "description"=>"<p>Estimated total lengths ([TL] cm) of 130 white sharks (74 male, 32 female, and 24 unsexed) from Jorgensen et al. <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078#pone.0098078-Jorgensen1\" target=\"_blank\">[19]</a> were binned into 30 cm (∼1 ft) intervals. These data most likely represent the size and sex distribution of white sharks in Chapple <i>et al</i>.'s <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078#pone.0098078-Chapple1\" target=\"_blank\">[22]</a> mark-recapture population abundance estimates.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Population modeling", "ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Population growth", "Marine biology", "Fisheries science", "Marine conservation", "Population biology", "Population metrics", "Conservation science", "sharks", "enumerated", "farallon", "islands", "tomales"], "article_id"=>1058600, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["George H. Burgess", "Barry D. Bruce", "Gregor M. Cailliet", "Kenneth J. Goldman", "R. Dean Grubbs", "Christopher G. Lowe", "M. Aaron MacNeil", "Henry F. Mollet", "Kevin C. Weng", "John B. O'Sullivan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Size_composition_of_white_sharks_enumerated_near_the_Farallon_Islands_and_Tomales_Point_California_USA_/1058600", "title"=>"Size composition of white sharks enumerated near the Farallon Islands and Tomales Point, California, USA.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-06-16 03:17:21"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1536365"], "description"=>"<p>Estimates presented as 95% confidence/credible interval range (average or most probable number). Direct enumeration indicated by (E); JS indicates a Jolly-Seber based open population mark/recapture model was used; n/a  =  not applicable to study.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Population modeling", "ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Population growth", "Marine biology", "Fisheries science", "Marine conservation", "Population biology", "Population metrics", "Conservation science", "estimates", "enumerations", "sharks", "aggregation", "areas"], "article_id"=>1058603, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["George H. Burgess", "Barry D. Bruce", "Gregor M. Cailliet", "Kenneth J. Goldman", "R. Dean Grubbs", "Christopher G. Lowe", "M. Aaron MacNeil", "Henry F. Mollet", "Kevin C. Weng", "John B. O'Sullivan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Population_estimates_and_enumerations_of_white_sharks_from_known_aggregation_areas_around_the_world_/1058603", "title"=>"Population estimates and enumerations of white sharks from known aggregation areas around the world.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-06-16 03:17:21"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1536364"], "description"=>"<p>The theoretical age distribution (black line with left y-axis) of all white sharks in coastal California, from birth to the predicted longevity of 30 years with a natural mortality coefficient (M) of 0.153 (∼86% survivorship), was determined using population parameters in Mollet and Cailliet <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078#pone.0098078-Mollet2\" target=\"_blank\">[62]</a>). The length-at-age relationship from Cailliet <i>et al</i>. <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078#pone.0098078-Cailliet2\" target=\"_blank\">[65]</a> was used to determine the age of 130 white sharks (sexes combined) sampled by Jorgensen <i>et al</i>. <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078#pone.0098078-Jorgensen1\" target=\"_blank\">[19]</a>, and presumably present in the Chapple <i>et al</i>. <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078#pone.0098078-Chapple1\" target=\"_blank\">[22]</a> study (see upper x-axis for lengths (TL cm)). The resulting age composition (black bars with right y-axis) was scaled to the mark-recapture population estimate and proportioned such that 100% of 13 year olds are accounted for in the Chapple <i>et al</i>. <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078#pone.0098078-Chapple1\" target=\"_blank\">[22]</a> population estimate of 219 white sharks.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Population modeling", "ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Population growth", "Marine biology", "Fisheries science", "Marine conservation", "Population biology", "Population metrics", "Conservation science", "sharks", "mark-recapture", "matched"], "article_id"=>1058601, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["George H. Burgess", "Barry D. Bruce", "Gregor M. Cailliet", "Kenneth J. Goldman", "R. Dean Grubbs", "Christopher G. Lowe", "M. Aaron MacNeil", "Henry F. Mollet", "Kevin C. Weng", "John B. O'Sullivan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>18, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Age_composition_of_white_sharks_estimated_in_mark_recapture_study_matched_to_the_theoretical_age_distribution_/1058601", "title"=>"Age composition of white sharks estimated in mark-recapture study matched to the theoretical age distribution.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-06-16 03:17:21"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1536361"], "description"=>"<p>Results are shown for varying proportions of resident and transient individuals in a single simulated sub-population sampled from a fixed location (<i>sensu</i> Fearnbach <i>et al</i>. <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078#pone.0098078-Fearnbach1\" target=\"_blank\">[60]</a>); each combination of resident/transient is representative of repeated simulation runs showing: (A) Annual bias in a given survey year; (B) cumulative (i.e. discovery curve) bias. Values of 1 indicate equivalence (no bias) between methods; color variation represents proportion of known transients in the population from zero (dark red) to 90% (dark blue). *Assuming residents only from Chapple <i>et al</i>. <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078#pone.0098078-Chapple1\" target=\"_blank\">[22]</a>; **assuming resident/transient proportions from Fearnbach <i>et al</i>. <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078#pone.0098078-Fergusson1\" target=\"_blank\">[58]</a>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Population modeling", "ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Population growth", "Marine biology", "Fisheries science", "Marine conservation", "Population biology", "Population metrics", "Conservation science", "closed-population", "hypergeometric", "simulated"], "article_id"=>1058599, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["George H. Burgess", "Barry D. Bruce", "Gregor M. Cailliet", "Kenneth J. Goldman", "R. Dean Grubbs", "Christopher G. Lowe", "M. Aaron MacNeil", "Henry F. Mollet", "Kevin C. Weng", "John B. O'Sullivan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0098078.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>19, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relative_bias_in_a_closed_population_hypergeometric_model_relative_to_a_simulated_dynamic_sub_population_/1058599", "title"=>"Relative bias in a closed-population hypergeometric model relative to a simulated dynamic sub-population.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-06-16 03:17:21"}

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