The Effects of School Holidays on Transmission of Varicella Zoster Virus, England and Wales, 1967–2008
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{"title"=>"The effects of school holidays on transmission of varicella zoster virus, England and Wales, 1967-2008", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Charlotte", "last_name"=>"Jackson", "scopus_author_id"=>"55057756400"}, {"first_name"=>"Punam", "last_name"=>"Mangtani", "scopus_author_id"=>"7003437574"}, {"first_name"=>"Paul", "last_name"=>"Fine", "scopus_author_id"=>"7101853496"}, {"first_name"=>"Emilia", "last_name"=>"Vynnycky", "scopus_author_id"=>"6701651110"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"pmid"=>"24932994", "sgr"=>"84903287337", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0099762", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84903287337", "pui"=>"373394681", "isbn"=>"1932-6203", "issn"=>"19326203"}, "id"=>"f45cdc1a-08e8-3dd5-8812-ce054fda4231", "abstract"=>"BACKGROUND: Changes in children's contact patterns between termtime and school holidays affect the transmission of several respiratory-spread infections. Transmission of varicella zoster virus (VZV), the causative agent of chickenpox, has also been linked to the school calendar in several settings, but temporal changes in the proportion of young children attending childcare centres may have influenced this relationship.\\n\\nMETHODS: We used two modelling methods (a simple difference equations model and a Time series Susceptible Infectious Recovered (TSIR) model) to estimate fortnightly values of a contact parameter (the per capita rate of effective contact between two specific individuals), using GP consultation data for chickenpox in England and Wales from 1967-2008.\\n\\nRESULTS: The estimated contact parameters were 22-31% lower during the summer holiday than during termtime. The relationship between the contact parameter and the school calendar did not change markedly over the years analysed.\\n\\nCONCLUSIONS: In England and Wales, reductions in contact between children during the school summer holiday lead to a reduction in the transmission of VZV. These estimates are relevant for predicting how closing schools and nurseries may affect an outbreak of an emerging respiratory-spread pathogen.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/effects-school-holidays-transmission-varicella-zoster-virus-england-wales-19672008", "reader_count"=>17, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Researcher"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>4, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>3, "Other"=>1, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Researcher"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>4, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>3, "Other"=>1, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>3, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>6, "Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutical Science"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>2, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>6}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>2}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>3}, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>{"Nursing and Health Professions"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>4}, "Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutical Science"=>{"Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutical Science"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>2, "Portugal"=>1}, "group_count"=>2}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1536019"], "description"=>"<p>A) 1967–76; B) 1977–97; C) 1998–2008; with values of α as shown. Error bars show 95% confidence intervals. Shaded rectangles show the approximate timing of school holidays. Fortnight 1 is the first two weeks of January; fortnight 26 is the last two weeks of December.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Population modeling", "Infectious disease modeling", "epidemiology", "Disease dynamics", "Infectious disease epidemiology", "School closures", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "Chickenpox", "Infectious disease control", "Public and occupational health", "estimates", "parameter", "tsir"], "article_id"=>1058336, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Charlotte Jackson", "Punam Mangtani", "Paul Fine", "Emilia Vynnycky"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0099762.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>16, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Fortnightly_estimates_of_the_contact_parameter_for_chickenpox_as_estimated_by_TSIR_modelling_/1058336", "title"=>"Fortnightly estimates of the contact parameter for chickenpox as estimated by TSIR modelling.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-06-16 03:03:24"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1535994"], "description"=>"<p>Proportion of chickenpox consultations in different age groups, 1967–2008.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Population modeling", "Infectious disease modeling", "epidemiology", "Disease dynamics", "Infectious disease epidemiology", "School closures", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "Chickenpox", "Infectious disease control", "Public and occupational health", "consultations"], "article_id"=>1058331, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Charlotte Jackson", "Punam Mangtani", "Paul Fine", "Emilia Vynnycky"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0099762.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Proportion_of_chickenpox_consultations_in_different_age_groups_1967_8211_2008_/1058331", "title"=>"Proportion of chickenpox consultations in different age groups, 1967–2008.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-06-16 03:03:24"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1536025"], "description"=>"<div><p>Background</p><p>Changes in children’s contact patterns between termtime and school holidays affect the transmission of several respiratory-spread infections. Transmission of varicella zoster virus (VZV), the causative agent of chickenpox, has also been linked to the school calendar in several settings, but temporal changes in the proportion of young children attending childcare centres may have influenced this relationship.</p><p>Methods</p><p>We used two modelling methods (a simple difference equations model and a Time series Susceptible Infectious Recovered (TSIR) model) to estimate fortnightly values of a contact parameter (the per capita rate of effective contact between two specific individuals), using GP consultation data for chickenpox in England and Wales from 1967–2008.</p><p>Results</p><p>The estimated contact parameters were 22–31% lower during the summer holiday than during termtime. The relationship between the contact parameter and the school calendar did not change markedly over the years analysed.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>In England and Wales, reductions in contact between children during the school summer holiday lead to a reduction in the transmission of VZV. These estimates are relevant for predicting how closing schools and nurseries may affect an outbreak of an emerging respiratory-spread pathogen.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Population modeling", "Infectious disease modeling", "epidemiology", "Disease dynamics", "Infectious disease epidemiology", "School closures", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "Chickenpox", "Infectious disease control", "Public and occupational health", "holidays", "varicella", "zoster", "england"], "article_id"=>1058342, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Charlotte Jackson", "Punam Mangtani", "Paul Fine", "Emilia Vynnycky"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0099762", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>13, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_The_Effects_of_School_Holidays_on_Transmission_of_Varicella_Zoster_Virus_England_and_Wales_1967_8211_2008_/1058342", "title"=>"The Effects of School Holidays on Transmission of Varicella Zoster Virus, England and Wales, 1967–2008", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-06-16 03:03:24"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1536022"], "description"=>"<p>A) Relationship between the RCGP chickenpox consultation rates and the fitted values from the regression (scaled down for under-reporting); B) RCGP data and the values predicted by the difference equations using the estimated contact parameters.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Population modeling", "Infectious disease modeling", "epidemiology", "Disease dynamics", "Infectious disease epidemiology", "School closures", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "Chickenpox", "Infectious disease control", "Public and occupational health", "treating"], "article_id"=>1058339, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Charlotte Jackson", "Punam Mangtani", "Paul Fine", "Emilia Vynnycky"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0099762.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>13, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Assessment_of_model_fit_for_chickenpox_data_treating_1967_8211_76_1977_8211_97_and_1998_8211_2008_separately_/1058339", "title"=>"Assessment of model fit for chickenpox data, treating 1967–76, 1977–97 and 1998–2008 separately.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-06-16 03:03:24"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1536021"], "description"=>"<p>A) all school holidays; B) summer holidays, with different values of α. A positive value represents a reduction in the contact parameter during holidays.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Population modeling", "Infectious disease modeling", "epidemiology", "Disease dynamics", "Infectious disease epidemiology", "School closures", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "Chickenpox", "Infectious disease control", "Public and occupational health", "parameter", "termtime"], "article_id"=>1058338, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Charlotte Jackson", "Punam Mangtani", "Paul Fine", "Emilia Vynnycky"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0099762.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Estimated_percentage_difference_between_the_contact_parameter_per_fortnight_for_chickenpox_during_termtime_and_holidays_/1058338", "title"=>"Estimated percentage difference between the contact parameter (per fortnight) for chickenpox during termtime and holidays.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-06-16 03:03:24"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1536012"], "description"=>"<p>Estimates are based on the simple mass action model. Error bars show 95% confidence intervals.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Population modeling", "Infectious disease modeling", "epidemiology", "Disease dynamics", "Infectious disease epidemiology", "School closures", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "Chickenpox", "Infectious disease control", "Public and occupational health", "parameter"], "article_id"=>1058333, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Charlotte Jackson", "Punam Mangtani", "Paul Fine", "Emilia Vynnycky"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0099762.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Percentage_reduction_in_the_contact_parameter_for_chickenpox_during_school_holidays_by_year_1967_8211_2008_/1058333", "title"=>"Percentage reduction in the contact parameter for chickenpox during school holidays, by year, 1967–2008.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-06-16 03:03:24"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1536011"], "description"=>"<p>The proportion susceptible at the start of the time series was assumed to be 13%; shading shows approximate timing of school holidays.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Population modeling", "Infectious disease modeling", "epidemiology", "Disease dynamics", "Infectious disease epidemiology", "School closures", "Infectious diseases", "Viral diseases", "Chickenpox", "Infectious disease control", "Public and occupational health", "estimates", "parameter"], "article_id"=>1058332, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Charlotte Jackson", "Punam Mangtani", "Paul Fine", "Emilia Vynnycky"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0099762.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>6, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Fortnightly_estimates_of_the_contact_parameter_for_chickenpox_based_on_the_simple_mass_action_model_/1058332", "title"=>"Fortnightly estimates of the contact parameter for chickenpox based on the simple mass action model.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-06-16 03:03:24"}

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