How Many Wolves (Canis lupus) Fit into Germany? The Role of Assumptions in Predictive Rule-Based Habitat Models for Habitat Generalists
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{"title"=>"How many wolves (Canis lupus) fit into Germany? The role of assumptions in predictive rule-based habitat models for habitat generalists", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Dominik", "last_name"=>"Fechter", "scopus_author_id"=>"55621374500"}, {"first_name"=>"Ilse", "last_name"=>"Storch", "scopus_author_id"=>"57190624796"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84904308182", "sgr"=>"84904308182", "issn"=>"19326203", "isbn"=>"1932-6203", "pmid"=>"25029506", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0101798", "pui"=>"373542239"}, "id"=>"9fac14a2-a488-3007-a410-2b070b298bfb", "abstract"=>"Due to legislative protection, many species, including large carnivores, are currently recolonizing Europe. To address the impending human-wildlife conflicts in advance, predictive habitat models can be used to determine potentially suitable habitat and areas likely to be recolonized. As field data are often limited, quantitative rule based models or the extrapolation of results from other studies are often the techniques of choice. Using the wolf (Canis lupus) in Germany as a model for habitat generalists, we developed a habitat model based on the location and extent of twelve existing wolf home ranges in Eastern Germany, current knowledge on wolf biology, different habitat modeling techniques and various input data to analyze ten different input parameter sets and address the following questions: (1) How do a priori assumptions and different input data or habitat modeling techniques affect the abundance and distribution of potentially suitable wolf habitat and the number of wolf packs in Germany? (2) In a synthesis across input parameter sets, what areas are predicted to be most suitable? (3) Are existing wolf pack home ranges in Eastern Germany consistent with current knowledge on wolf biology and habitat relationships? Our results indicate that depending on which assumptions on habitat relationships are applied in the model and which modeling techniques are chosen, the amount of potentially suitable habitat estimated varies greatly. Depending on a priori assumptions, Germany could accommodate between 154 and 1769 wolf packs. The locations of the existing wolf pack home ranges in Eastern Germany indicate that wolves are able to adapt to areas densely populated by humans, but are limited to areas with low road densities. Our analysis suggests that predictive habitat maps in general, should be interpreted with caution and illustrates the risk for habitat modelers to concentrate on only one selection of habitat factors or modeling technique.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/wolves-canis-lupus-fit-germany-role-assumptions-predictive-rulebased-habitat-models-habitat-generali", "reader_count"=>71, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Researcher"=>15, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>5, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>18, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Other"=>2, "Student > Master"=>15, "Student > Bachelor"=>9, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Researcher"=>15, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>5, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>18, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Other"=>2, "Student > Master"=>15, "Student > Bachelor"=>9, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Engineering"=>1, "Unspecified"=>2, "Environmental Science"=>20, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>39, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>1, "Design"=>1, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>3, "Computer Science"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Design"=>{"Design"=>1}, "Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>1}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>3}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>39}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>1}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>1}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>2}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>20}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Austria"=>1, "United States"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>1, "France"=>2, "Switzerland"=>1, "Peru"=>1, "Germany"=>3, "India"=>2}, "group_count"=>3}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1596887"], "description"=>"<p>Environmental parameters used in the four rules of the habitat models for all model input parameter sets except the meta-model input parameter set COM, which was derived from the results of the other model input parameter sets and the connectivity analysis.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Ecosystem modeling", "ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Population size", "Effective population size", "Carrying capacity", "Population growth", "Relative abundance distribution", "ecosystems", "Population biology", "geoinformatics", "Geographic Information Systems", "geography", "Cartography", "Terrestrial environments", "rules", "parameter", "sets", "meta-model", "derived", "connectivity"], "article_id"=>1107501, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Dominik Fechter", "Ilse Storch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101798.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Environmental_parameters_used_in_the_four_rules_of_the_habitat_models_for_all_model_input_parameter_sets_except_the_meta_model_input_parameter_set_COM_which_was_derived_from_the_results_of_the_other_model_input_parameter_sets_and_the_connectivity_analysi/1107501", "title"=>"Environmental parameters used in the four rules of the habitat models for all model input parameter sets except the meta-model input parameter set COM, which was derived from the results of the other model input parameter sets and the connectivity analysis.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-07-16 03:15:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1596886"], "description"=>"<p>Each dot represents one wolf pack home range in the Lausitz. Mean road densities in the Lausitz in NE-Germany, for a home range area of 200 km<sup>2</sup>, range up to 4.6 km/km<sup>2</sup> in model input parameter set T and 3.6 km/km<sup>2</sup> in model input parameter set NT. Mean human population density for a home range area of 200 km<sup>2</sup> could reach 2622 humans/km<sup>2</sup>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Ecosystem modeling", "ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Population size", "Effective population size", "Carrying capacity", "Population growth", "Relative abundance distribution", "ecosystems", "Population biology", "geoinformatics", "Geographic Information Systems", "geography", "Cartography", "Terrestrial environments", "lausitz", "ranges", "parameter", "sets", "nt"], "article_id"=>1107500, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Dominik Fechter", "Ilse Storch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101798.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>23, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Mean_road_density_and_mean_human_population_density_in_the_twelve_Lausitz_wolf_pack_home_ranges_in_model_input_parameter_sets_T_NT_and_HP_/1107500", "title"=>"Mean road density and mean human population density in the twelve Lausitz wolf pack home ranges in model input parameter sets T, NT and HP.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-07-16 03:15:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1596883"], "description"=>"<p>Maps A–C depict part of the Lausitz wolf area in NE Germany, illustrating the application of the rules used in the rule based model for modeling wolf habitat availability in Germany. Map D shows the baseline map for the connectivity analysis. Pack territory locations (dashed lines in black and white) show a first visual assessment of plausibility. (A) The first step was to apply model input parameter set rules 1 & 2 to a land cover map and a buffer set; here, model input parameter set AT (land cover types forest and transitional woodland/shrub, as well as roads, including tertiary roads) with buffer sets of 250 meters for roads and 500 meters for urban areas, used as an example. Suitable areas (in AT: forest and transitional woodland/shrub) are shown in grey; green lines indicate roads, urban areas are in red. The buffers have already been subtracted and are not shown. (B) Core areas in model input parameter set AT with the same buffer set for roads and urban areas as in A. The darker the area, the bigger the core area patch. (C) Resulting map of potentially suitable wolf habitat in model input parameter set AT. The darker the area, the more suitable the potential wolf habitat.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Ecosystem modeling", "ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Population size", "Effective population size", "Carrying capacity", "Population growth", "Relative abundance distribution", "ecosystems", "Population biology", "geoinformatics", "Geographic Information Systems", "geography", "Cartography", "Terrestrial environments"], "article_id"=>1107497, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Dominik Fechter", "Ilse Storch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101798.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>12, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Application_of_the_model_rules_/1107497", "title"=>"Application of the model rules.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-07-16 03:15:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1596891"], "description"=>"<p>Note: Maximum value for mean wolf habitat suitability is 6.0.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Ecosystem modeling", "ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Population size", "Effective population size", "Carrying capacity", "Population growth", "Relative abundance distribution", "ecosystems", "Population biology", "geoinformatics", "Geographic Information Systems", "geography", "Cartography", "Terrestrial environments", "suitability", "parameter", "sets", "validation"], "article_id"=>1107505, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Dominik Fechter", "Ilse Storch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101798.t004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Mean_wolf_habitat_suitability_in_the_ten_model_input_parameter_sets_at_the_two_validation_data_sets_and_random_points_/1107505", "title"=>"Mean wolf habitat suitability in the ten model input parameter sets at the two validation data sets and random points.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-07-16 03:15:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1596889"], "description"=>"<p>Notes: Model input parameter sets AT, BT, CT, ANT, BNT and CNT are combinations of a land cover type data set (LCTS) and a road network data set (RNDS). Model input parameter sets T, NT and HP contain only one data set, either a RNDS or the human population density data set (HPDS). The meta-model input parameter set, COM, is a synthesis of the results of all model input parameter sets. Due to the low spatial resolution, no core area could be determined for model input parameter sets HP and COM. Buffers for roads and settlements were only used in the first six model input parameter sets.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Ecosystem modeling", "ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Population size", "Effective population size", "Carrying capacity", "Population growth", "Relative abundance distribution", "ecosystems", "Population biology", "geoinformatics", "Geographic Information Systems", "geography", "Cartography", "Terrestrial environments", "parameter", "sets", "estimating", "wolves"], "article_id"=>1107503, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Dominik Fechter", "Ilse Storch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101798.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>6, "page_views"=>18, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Overview_of_the_ten_model_input_parameter_sets_used_for_estimating_habitat_availability_for_wolves_in_Germany_/1107503", "title"=>"Overview of the ten model input parameter sets used for estimating habitat availability for wolves in Germany.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-07-16 03:15:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1596890"], "description"=>"<p>Note: Range of potential wolf packs from the number of potential wolf packs in the highest suitability class (6) to the lowest suitability class (1). Suitability class 0 provides no potentially suitable habitat.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Ecosystem modeling", "ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Population size", "Effective population size", "Carrying capacity", "Population growth", "Relative abundance distribution", "ecosystems", "Population biology", "geoinformatics", "Geographic Information Systems", "geography", "Cartography", "Terrestrial environments", "germany", "suitability", "packs", "parameter"], "article_id"=>1107504, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Dominik Fechter", "Ilse Storch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101798.t003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>23, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Amount_of_potentially_suitable_wolf_habitat_for_Germany_by_suitability_class_in_km_2_and_the_range_of_potential_wolf_packs_in_the_ten_model_input_parameter_sets_/1107504", "title"=>"Amount of potentially suitable wolf habitat for Germany by suitability class (in km<sup>2</sup>), and the range of potential wolf packs in the ten model input parameter sets.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-07-16 03:15:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1596885"], "description"=>"<p>Top left corner: Orientation map to (low) mountain ranges (in green) and larger cities (black dots) in Germany and surrounding countries. The darker the area in the model input parameter set maps, the higher the habitat suitability. All model input parameter sets, except model input parameter set HP, consist of 7 suitability classes. Model input parameter set HP consist of only 3 suitability classes, because no core area could be identified. Habitat suitability maps were generated by successive application of the predefined rules.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Ecosystem modeling", "ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Population size", "Effective population size", "Carrying capacity", "Population growth", "Relative abundance distribution", "ecosystems", "Population biology", "geoinformatics", "Geographic Information Systems", "geography", "Cartography", "Terrestrial environments", "suitability", "maps", "parameter", "sets"], "article_id"=>1107499, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Dominik Fechter", "Ilse Storch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101798.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>33, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Wolf_Habitat_suitability_maps_for_the_ten_model_input_parameter_sets_small_boxes_/1107499", "title"=>"Wolf Habitat suitability maps for the ten model input parameter sets (small boxes).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-07-16 03:15:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1596893"], "description"=>"<div><p>Due to legislative protection, many species, including large carnivores, are currently recolonizing Europe. To address the impending human-wildlife conflicts in advance, predictive habitat models can be used to determine potentially suitable habitat and areas likely to be recolonized. As field data are often limited, quantitative rule based models or the extrapolation of results from other studies are often the techniques of choice. Using the wolf (<i>Canis lupus</i>) in Germany as a model for habitat generalists, we developed a habitat model based on the location and extent of twelve existing wolf home ranges in Eastern Germany, current knowledge on wolf biology, different habitat modeling techniques and various input data to analyze ten different input parameter sets and address the following questions: (1) How do a priori assumptions and different input data or habitat modeling techniques affect the abundance and distribution of potentially suitable wolf habitat and the number of wolf packs in Germany? (2) In a synthesis across input parameter sets, what areas are predicted to be most suitable? (3) Are existing wolf pack home ranges in Eastern Germany consistent with current knowledge on wolf biology and habitat relationships? Our results indicate that depending on which assumptions on habitat relationships are applied in the model and which modeling techniques are chosen, the amount of potentially suitable habitat estimated varies greatly. Depending on a priori assumptions, Germany could accommodate between 154 and 1769 wolf packs. The locations of the existing wolf pack home ranges in Eastern Germany indicate that wolves are able to adapt to areas densely populated by humans, but are limited to areas with low road densities. Our analysis suggests that predictive habitat maps in general, should be interpreted with caution and illustrates the risk for habitat modelers to concentrate on only one selection of habitat factors or modeling technique.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Ecosystem modeling", "ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Population size", "Effective population size", "Carrying capacity", "Population growth", "Relative abundance distribution", "ecosystems", "Population biology", "geoinformatics", "Geographic Information Systems", "geography", "Cartography", "Terrestrial environments", "wolves", "assumptions", "predictive", "rule-based", "generalists"], "article_id"=>1107507, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Dominik Fechter", "Ilse Storch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101798", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>12, "page_views"=>12, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/How_Many_Wolves_Canis_lupus_Fit_into_Germany_The_Role_of_Assumptions_in_Predictive_Rule_Based_Habitat_Models_for_Habitat_Generalists/1107507", "title"=>"How Many Wolves (<i>Canis lupus</i>) Fit into Germany? The Role of Assumptions in Predictive Rule-Based Habitat Models for Habitat Generalists", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-07-16 03:15:43"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1596892"], "description"=>"<p>Pearson's correlations between parameters of road density, human population density and percent forest cover for the Lausitz wolf pack home ranges (N = 12).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "Ecosystem modeling", "ecology", "Ecological metrics", "Population size", "Effective population size", "Carrying capacity", "Population growth", "Relative abundance distribution", "ecosystems", "Population biology", "geoinformatics", "Geographic Information Systems", "geography", "Cartography", "Terrestrial environments", "correlations", "percent", "lausitz", "ranges"], "article_id"=>1107506, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Dominik Fechter", "Ilse Storch"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101798.t005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>25, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Pearson_s_correlations_between_parameters_of_road_density_human_population_density_and_percent_forest_cover_for_the_Lausitz_wolf_pack_home_ranges_N_8202_8202_12_/1107506", "title"=>"Pearson's correlations between parameters of road density, human population density and percent forest cover for the Lausitz wolf pack home ranges (N = 12).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-07-16 03:15:43"}

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