Historical, Observed, and Modeled Wildfire Severity in Montane Forests of the Colorado Front Range
Publication Date
September 24, 2014
Journal
PLOS ONE
Authors
Rosemary L. Sherriff, Rutherford V. Platt, Thomas T. Veblen, Tania L. Schoennagel, et al
Volume
9
Issue
9
Pages
e106971
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0106971
PubMed
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25251103
PubMed Central
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4175072
Europe PMC
http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/25251103
Web of Science
000342492700022
Scopus
84907584611
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/historical-observed-modeled-wildfire-severity-montane-forests-colorado-front-range
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Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"Historical, observed, and modeled wildfire severity in montane forests of the colorado front range", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Rosemary L.", "last_name"=>"Sherriff", "scopus_author_id"=>"6701673681"}, {"first_name"=>"Rutherford V.", "last_name"=>"Platt", "scopus_author_id"=>"7102023508"}, {"first_name"=>"Thomas T.", "last_name"=>"Veblen", "scopus_author_id"=>"7005710296"}, {"first_name"=>"Tania L.", "last_name"=>"Schoennagel", "scopus_author_id"=>"6602371914"}, {"first_name"=>"Meredith H.", "last_name"=>"Gartner", "scopus_author_id"=>"55334243500"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"19326203", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84907584611", "pui"=>"600067882", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0106971", "isbn"=>"1932-6203", "sgr"=>"84907584611", "pmid"=>"25251103"}, "id"=>"41963b73-697a-3fe3-9a7c-b321acd948c9", "abstract"=>"Large recent fires in the western U.S. have contributed to a perception that fire exclusion has caused an unprecedented occurrence of uncharacteristically severe fires, particularly in lower elevation dry pine forests. In the absence of long-term fire severity records, it is unknown how short-term trends compare to fire severity prior to 20th century fire exclusion. This study compares historical (i.e. pre-1920) fire severity with observed modern fire severity and modeled potential fire behavior across 564,413 ha of montane forests of the Colorado Front Range. We used forest structure and tree-ring fire history to characterize fire severity at 232 sites and then modeled historical fire-severity across the entire study area using biophysical variables. Eighteen (7.8%) sites were characterized by low-severity fires and 214 (92.2%) by mixed-severity fires (i.e. including moderate- or high-severity fires). Difference in area of historical versus observed low-severity fire within nine recent (post-1999) large fire perimeters was greatest in lower montane forests. Only 16% of the study area recorded a shift from historical low severity to a higher potential for crown fire today. An historical fire regime of more frequent and low-severity fires at low elevations (<2260 m) supports a convergence of management goals of ecological restoration and fire hazard mitigation in those habitats. In contrast, at higher elevations mixed-severity fires were predominant historically and continue to be so today. Thinning treatments at higher elevations of the montane zone will not return the fire regime to an historic low-severity regime, and are of questionable effectiveness in preventing severe wildfires. Based on present-day fuels, predicted fire behavior under extreme fire weather continues to indicate a mixed-severity fire regime throughout most of the montane forest zone. Recent large wildfires in the Front Range are not fundamentally different from similar events that occurred historically under extreme weather conditions.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/historical-observed-modeled-wildfire-severity-montane-forests-colorado-front-range", "reader_count"=>50, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Researcher"=>8, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>12, "Student > Master"=>15, "Other"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>5, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Researcher"=>8, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>12, "Student > Master"=>15, "Other"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>5, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Engineering"=>2, "Unspecified"=>3, "Environmental Science"=>18, "Mathematics"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>15, "Design"=>1, "Chemistry"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>7, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Design"=>{"Design"=>1}, "Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>2}, "Chemistry"=>{"Chemistry"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>7}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>15}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>3}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>18}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Colombia"=>1, "United States"=>4}, "group_count"=>4}

Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688626"], "description"=>"<p>The comparison shows the proportion of low- (unburned/low and low) and mixed- (moderate and high) severity fire within the perimeter of nine recent fires (2000–2012), and the average and total (all pixels) proportions of fire severities across all nine fires in the study area. The median elevation for each fire is given under the fire name.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fire regime", "Colorado Front Range", "montane forests", "study area", "fire hazard mitigation", "crown fire today", "fire severity records", "fire behavior", "Modeled Wildfire Severity", "U.S", "century fire exclusion", "fire severity", "montane forest zone"], "article_id"=>1180461, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Rosemary L. Sherriff", "Rutherford V. Platt", "Thomas T. Veblen", "Tania L. Schoennagel", "Meredith H. Gartner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.g007", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Comparisons_of_the_historical_and_observed_fire_severities_for_nine_recent_fires_2000_8211_2012_/1180461", "title"=>"Comparisons of the historical and observed fire severities for nine recent fires (2000–2012).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-09-24 02:56:14"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688622"], "description"=>"<p>A comparison of the percentage of the a) study area, b) ponderosa pine cover type, and c) mixed conifer cover type classified as historical fire (low-severity only or mixed-severity) and modeled current fire behavior (surface or crown/torch) under extreme weather conditions (99<sup>th</sup> percentile for 1964–2007).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fire regime", "Colorado Front Range", "montane forests", "study area", "fire hazard mitigation", "crown fire today", "fire severity records", "fire behavior", "Modeled Wildfire Severity", "U.S", "century fire exclusion", "fire severity", "montane forest zone"], "article_id"=>1180457, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Rosemary L. Sherriff", "Rutherford V. Platt", "Thomas T. Veblen", "Tania L. Schoennagel", "Meredith H. Gartner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>12, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Percent_study_area_and_cover_type_classified_with_historical_fire_type_and_modeled_fire_behavior_/1180457", "title"=>"Percent study area and cover type classified with historical fire type and modeled fire behavior.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-09-24 02:56:14"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688634"], "description"=>"<p>The areas and proportion of the study area mapped as historical low-severity fire with current potential for surface fire (green), historical low-severity fire with current potential for torch or crown fire (red), historical mixed-severity with current potential for surface fire (yellow), and historical mixed-severity with current potential for torch or crown fire (orange). Current potential fire behavior is modeled under extreme (99<sup>th</sup> percentile) weather (1964–2007).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fire regime", "Colorado Front Range", "montane forests", "study area", "fire hazard mitigation", "crown fire today", "fire severity records", "fire behavior", "Modeled Wildfire Severity", "U.S", "century fire exclusion", "fire severity", "montane forest zone"], "article_id"=>1180469, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Rosemary L. Sherriff", "Rutherford V. Platt", "Thomas T. Veblen", "Tania L. Schoennagel", "Meredith H. Gartner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.g008", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Historical_fire_severity_overlaid_with_a_model_of_fire_potential_under_extreme_99_th_percentile_weather_/1180469", "title"=>"Historical fire severity overlaid with a model of fire potential under extreme (99<sup>th</sup> percentile weather).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-09-24 02:56:14"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688600"], "description"=>"<p>Sites are shown across the elevation gradient of the study area. Symbols with centered dots indicate two or three of those fire years listed were recorded at that site. The two largest fires in recorded history for the region (Hayman Fire and High Park Fire) are shown for spatial comparison.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fire regime", "Colorado Front Range", "montane forests", "study area", "fire hazard mitigation", "crown fire today", "fire severity records", "fire behavior", "Modeled Wildfire Severity", "U.S", "century fire exclusion", "fire severity", "montane forest zone"], "article_id"=>1180439, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Rosemary L. Sherriff", "Rutherford V. Platt", "Thomas T. Veblen", "Tania L. Schoennagel", "Meredith H. Gartner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Historical_fire_severity_sites_recording_widespread_fire_dates_in_1654_1786_and_1859_8211_60_/1180439", "title"=>"Historical fire-severity sites recording widespread fire dates in 1654, 1786, and 1859–60.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-09-24 02:56:14"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688594"], "description"=>"<p>The map includes the montane zone by cover type (LANDFIRE Existing Vegetation Type), 232 sites sampled for historical fire severity, and recent wildfires used for comparison and verification of fire behavior modeling. County boundaries (solid black lines) from north to south are of Gilpin and Clear Creek counties and the mountainous western regions of Larimer, Boulder, and Douglas counties, and Jefferson County.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fire regime", "Colorado Front Range", "montane forests", "study area", "fire hazard mitigation", "crown fire today", "fire severity records", "fire behavior", "Modeled Wildfire Severity", "U.S", "century fire exclusion", "fire severity", "montane forest zone"], "article_id"=>1180433, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Rosemary L. Sherriff", "Rutherford V. Platt", "Thomas T. Veblen", "Tania L. Schoennagel", "Meredith H. Gartner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Study_area_in_north_central_Colorado_USA_/1180433", "title"=>"Study area in north-central Colorado, USA.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-09-24 02:56:14"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688614"], "description"=>"<p>Sites with historical evidence of mixed-severity fires are differentiated with evidence of low- and moderate-severity fire (no evidence of high-severity fire; 108 sites) and low- to high-severity fire (106 sites). Areas mapped as historical low-severity fire only (27.8%) and mixed-severity fire (72.2%) are shown in green and orange, respectively. Three example graphs are also shown to illustrate the evidence (remnant trees, tree establishment and spreading fires) used to classify sites with evidence of low and mixed-severity fire effects at individual sites.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fire regime", "Colorado Front Range", "montane forests", "study area", "fire hazard mitigation", "crown fire today", "fire severity records", "fire behavior", "Modeled Wildfire Severity", "U.S", "century fire exclusion", "fire severity", "montane forest zone"], "article_id"=>1180450, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Rosemary L. Sherriff", "Rutherford V. Platt", "Thomas T. Veblen", "Tania L. Schoennagel", "Meredith H. Gartner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Distribution_of_232_sites_with_historical_pre_1920_evidence_of_low_severity_and_mixed_severity_fires_/1180450", "title"=>"Distribution of 232 sites with historical (pre-1920) evidence of low-severity and mixed-severity fires.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-09-24 02:56:14"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688641", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688642", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688643", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688644"], "description"=>"<div><p>Large recent fires in the western U.S. have contributed to a perception that fire exclusion has caused an unprecedented occurrence of uncharacteristically severe fires, particularly in lower elevation dry pine forests. In the absence of long-term fire severity records, it is unknown how short-term trends compare to fire severity prior to 20<sup>th</sup> century fire exclusion. This study compares historical (i.e. pre-1920) fire severity with observed modern fire severity and modeled potential fire behavior across 564,413 ha of montane forests of the Colorado Front Range. We used forest structure and tree-ring fire history to characterize fire severity at 232 sites and then modeled historical fire-severity across the entire study area using biophysical variables. Eighteen (7.8%) sites were characterized by low-severity fires and 214 (92.2%) by mixed-severity fires (i.e. including moderate- or high-severity fires). Difference in area of historical versus observed low-severity fire within nine recent (post-1999) large fire perimeters was greatest in lower montane forests. Only 16% of the study area recorded a shift from historical low severity to a higher potential for crown fire today. An historical fire regime of more frequent and low-severity fires at low elevations (<2260 m) supports a convergence of management goals of ecological restoration and fire hazard mitigation in those habitats. In contrast, at higher elevations mixed-severity fires were predominant historically and continue to be so today. Thinning treatments at higher elevations of the montane zone will not return the fire regime to an historic low-severity regime, and are of questionable effectiveness in preventing severe wildfires. Based on present-day fuels, predicted fire behavior under extreme fire weather continues to indicate a mixed-severity fire regime throughout most of the montane forest zone. Recent large wildfires in the Front Range are not fundamentally different from similar events that occurred historically under extreme weather conditions.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fire regime", "Colorado Front Range", "montane forests", "study area", "fire hazard mitigation", "crown fire today", "fire severity records", "fire behavior", "Modeled Wildfire Severity", "U.S", "century fire exclusion", "fire severity", "montane forest zone"], "article_id"=>1180476, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Rosemary L. Sherriff", "Rutherford V. Platt", "Thomas T. Veblen", "Tania L. Schoennagel", "Meredith H. Gartner"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.s004"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>18, "page_views"=>16, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Historical_Observed_and_Modeled_Wildfire_Severity_in_Montane_Forests_of_the_Colorado_Front_Range_/1180476", "title"=>"Historical, Observed, and Modeled Wildfire Severity in Montane Forests of the Colorado Front Range", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2014-09-24 02:56:14"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688602"], "description"=>"<p>Tree establishment (≥4 cm diameter) in 20-year bins for low-severity (green) and mixed-severity (orange) sites sampled at the stand-scale (120 sites). Total number of trees included are 663 and 5703, respectively.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fire regime", "Colorado Front Range", "montane forests", "study area", "fire hazard mitigation", "crown fire today", "fire severity records", "fire behavior", "Modeled Wildfire Severity", "U.S", "century fire exclusion", "fire severity", "montane forest zone"], "article_id"=>1180441, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Rosemary L. Sherriff", "Rutherford V. Platt", "Thomas T. Veblen", "Tania L. Schoennagel", "Meredith H. Gartner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Proportion_of_tree_establishment_dates_/1180441", "title"=>"Proportion of tree establishment dates.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-09-24 02:56:14"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688636"], "description"=>"<p>* Total area burned and fire severity percentages within each fire perimeter (MTBS values 1–4; 1 =  unburned/low, 2 =  low, 3 =  moderate, and 4 =  high). See <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971#pone-0106971-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Figure 1</a> for large fire perimeters used to compare historical and observed fire severities within the study area.</p><p>Large fires in the montane study area from 2000–2012.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fire regime", "Colorado Front Range", "montane forests", "study area", "fire hazard mitigation", "crown fire today", "fire severity records", "fire behavior", "Modeled Wildfire Severity", "U.S", "century fire exclusion", "fire severity", "montane forest zone"], "article_id"=>1180471, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Rosemary L. Sherriff", "Rutherford V. Platt", "Thomas T. Veblen", "Tania L. Schoennagel", "Meredith H. Gartner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Large_fires_in_the_montane_study_area_from_2000_8211_2012_/1180471", "title"=>"Large fires in the montane study area from 2000–2012.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-09-24 02:56:14"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688637"], "description"=>"<p>Comparisons of historical fire severity, observed fire severity, and modeled potential fire behavior.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fire regime", "Colorado Front Range", "montane forests", "study area", "fire hazard mitigation", "crown fire today", "fire severity records", "fire behavior", "Modeled Wildfire Severity", "U.S", "century fire exclusion", "fire severity", "montane forest zone"], "article_id"=>1180472, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Rosemary L. Sherriff", "Rutherford V. Platt", "Thomas T. Veblen", "Tania L. Schoennagel", "Meredith H. Gartner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.t003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Comparisons_of_historical_fire_severity_observed_fire_severity_and_modeled_potential_fire_behavior_/1180472", "title"=>"Comparisons of historical fire severity, observed fire severity, and modeled potential fire behavior.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-09-24 02:56:14"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688635"], "description"=>"<p>These terms may have different meanings in the literature depending on the context in which they are used.</p><p>Definitions of historical fire severity terms.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fire regime", "Colorado Front Range", "montane forests", "study area", "fire hazard mitigation", "crown fire today", "fire severity records", "fire behavior", "Modeled Wildfire Severity", "U.S", "century fire exclusion", "fire severity", "montane forest zone"], "article_id"=>1180470, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Rosemary L. Sherriff", "Rutherford V. Platt", "Thomas T. Veblen", "Tania L. Schoennagel", "Meredith H. Gartner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Definitions_of_historical_fire_severity_terms_/1180470", "title"=>"Definitions of historical fire severity terms.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-09-24 02:56:14"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1688595"], "description"=>"<p>Percentage of sites with spreading fires (minimum of 2 scarred trees per year at each stand-level site represented as histogram bars, n = 120 sites; left axis), sample depth of the percentage of sites available to record fires (minimum of 2 scarred trees available to record fires at each site; dotted line; left axis), and a 20-year smoothing average of a regional tree-ring drought index <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971#pone.0106971-Veblen4\" target=\"_blank\">[60]</a> with a mean value of 0.99 (dashed line with an inverted axis where smaller values are towards the top and indicate dry conditions; right axis).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["fire regime", "Colorado Front Range", "montane forests", "study area", "fire hazard mitigation", "crown fire today", "fire severity records", "fire behavior", "Modeled Wildfire Severity", "U.S", "century fire exclusion", "fire severity", "montane forest zone"], "article_id"=>1180434, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Rosemary L. Sherriff", "Rutherford V. Platt", "Thomas T. Veblen", "Tania L. Schoennagel", "Meredith H. Gartner"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106971.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>7, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Percentage_of_sites_recording_spreading_fires_/1180434", "title"=>"Percentage of sites recording spreading fires.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-09-24 02:56:14"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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Relative Metric

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