Predicting Vulnerabilities of North American Shorebirds to Climate Change
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{"title"=>"Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Hector", "last_name"=>"Galbraith", "scopus_author_id"=>"7004022830"}, {"first_name"=>"David W.", "last_name"=>"DesRochers", "scopus_author_id"=>"24070251100"}, {"first_name"=>"Stephen", "last_name"=>"Brown", "scopus_author_id"=>"55712897500"}, {"first_name"=>"J. Michael", "last_name"=>"Reed", "scopus_author_id"=>"35568973700"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"19326203", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84907495038", "pui"=>"600079843", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0108899", "isbn"=>"0000000337", "sgr"=>"84907495038", "pmid"=>"25268907"}, "id"=>"513cbb10-86d4-3b75-b0c5-f7baf7a85d6e", "abstract"=>"Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at–risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners–in–Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower–risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change. Citation:", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/predicting-vulnerabilities-north-american-shorebirds-climate-change", "reader_count"=>75, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>20, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>15, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>17, "Other"=>7, "Student > Bachelor"=>8, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>20, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>15, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>17, "Other"=>7, "Student > Bachelor"=>8, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Environmental Science"=>20, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Mathematics"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>49, "Chemistry"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Chemistry"=>{"Chemistry"=>1}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>49}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>2}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>20}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Canada"=>1, "United States"=>3, "United Kingdom"=>2, "Portugal"=>1, "Spain"=>1}, "group_count"=>0}

Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1697866"], "description"=>"<p>Data are summarized from <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899#pone-0108899-t002\" target=\"_blank\">Table 2</a> (differences between last two columns).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Shorebird Conservation Plan", "usa", "climate change", "North American Shorebirds", "species", "U.S", "Extinction risk", "risk factor decrease", "shorebird extinction risks"], "article_id"=>1187963, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Hector Galbraith", "David W. DesRochers", "Stephen Brown", "J. Michael Reed"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>16, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Number_of_species_that_we_predict_will_not_change_U_S_Shorebird_Conservation_Plan_Risk_Categories_due_to_climate_change_0_and_the_number_that_will_have_increased_risk_of_extinction_positive_values_we_predicted_no_species_to_have_reduced_risk_negative_val/1187963", "title"=>"Number of species that we predict will not change U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan Risk Categories due to climate change (0), and the number that will have increased risk of extinction (positive values); we predicted no species to have reduced risk (negative values).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-09-30 03:37:50"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1697878"], "description"=>"<p>What is shown in the first column of results is the current distribution of taxa across risk categories by the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan (USSCP). The columns that follow are the predicted distributions under different criteria for changing risk category. In <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899#pone-0108899-t002\" target=\"_blank\">Table 2</a> we assume that the accumulation of 4 arrows across risk factors is sufficient for a species to change risk category; this table shows the sensitivity of this result using more liberal (3 arrows) and more conservative (5, 6, and 7 arrows) criteria for changing risk category. We added a new risk category to those used by Partners–in–Flight (PIF) and the USSCP, Critical, to account for species being at categorically greater risk than previously considered. (See <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899#pone-0108899-t002\" target=\"_blank\">Table 2</a> and Appendices S3 and S4 for species–specific assessments and summaries.)</p>1<p>Category does not exist in current PIF framework.</p><p>Results of sensitivity analysis of risk categorization for shorebird species.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Shorebird Conservation Plan", "usa", "climate change", "North American Shorebirds", "species", "U.S", "Extinction risk", "risk factor decrease", "shorebird extinction risks"], "article_id"=>1187975, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Hector Galbraith", "David W. DesRochers", "Stephen Brown", "J. Michael Reed"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899.t003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Results_of_sensitivity_analysis_of_risk_categorization_for_shorebird_species_/1187975", "title"=>"Results of sensitivity analysis of risk categorization for shorebird species.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-09-30 03:37:50"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1697874"], "description"=>"<p>By accurate, we mean variation explained between nodes is >90% or near that, not merely determining statistically significant relationships. Subheadings specify the relationships, and ‘species response’ includes adaptive responses as well as non–adaptive responses. ‘Fine spatial extent’ refers to downscaling climate change estimates to the spatial scale at which species respond; factors at this scale affect species' responses directly and indirectly. The digraph is nested within the contexts of future introductions of exotic, invasive species, and human responses to climate change to indicate that all of the relationships from the digraph can be affected by these particular occurrences or responses.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Shorebird Conservation Plan", "usa", "climate change", "North American Shorebirds", "species", "U.S", "Extinction risk", "risk factor decrease", "shorebird extinction risks"], "article_id"=>1187971, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Hector Galbraith", "David W. DesRochers", "Stephen Brown", "J. Michael Reed"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>23, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Digraph_showing_relationships_arrows_for_which_we_need_accurate_information_in_order_to_accurately_predict_species_8211_specific_shorebird_responses_to_climate_change_/1187971", "title"=>"Digraph showing relationships (arrows) for which we need accurate information in order to accurately predict species–specific shorebird responses to climate change.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-09-30 03:37:50"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1697882", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1697883", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1697884", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1697885"], "description"=>"<div><p>Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at–risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners–in–Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower–risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Shorebird Conservation Plan", "usa", "climate change", "North American Shorebirds", "species", "U.S", "Extinction risk", "risk factor decrease", "shorebird extinction risks"], "article_id"=>1187979, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Hector Galbraith", "David W. DesRochers", "Stephen Brown", "J. Michael Reed"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899.s004"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>18, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Predicting_Vulnerabilities_of_North_American_Shorebirds_to_Climate_Change_/1187979", "title"=>"Predicting Vulnerabilities of North American Shorebirds to Climate Change", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2014-09-30 03:37:50"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1697864"], "description"=>"<p>Ranges were downloaded from the NatureServe database. Horizontal lines separate dispersal distances as ranked in <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899#pone-0108899-t001\" target=\"_blank\">Table 1</a>, with the shortest distances associated with rank 1 and the greatest distances with rank 5. The exceptions are the Bristle–thighed Curlew and Bar–tailed Godwit, which do not overwinter in the New World so they are not covered by the database. They fall into the greatest migration distance category, and are represented arbitrarily in the figure by the 2 points showing the greatest migration distances.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Shorebird Conservation Plan", "usa", "climate change", "North American Shorebirds", "species", "U.S", "Extinction risk", "risk factor decrease", "shorebird extinction risks"], "article_id"=>1187961, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Hector Galbraith", "David W. DesRochers", "Stephen Brown", "J. Michael Reed"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_One_way_migration_distances_calculated_as_mid_8211_point_to_mid_8211_point_of_their_summer_and_winter_geographic_ranges_/1187961", "title"=>"One-way migration distances calculated as mid–point to mid–point of their summer and winter geographic ranges.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-09-30 03:37:50"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1697876"], "description"=>"<p>Arrows depict extent and direction of change in risk associated with climate change. See <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899#pone-0108899-t001\" target=\"_blank\">Table 1</a> for description of risk factors and scoring, and see Appendices S1 and S2 for species specific discussion. Also included in current U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan (USSCP) Risk Categories and State of the Birds vulnerability score and our proposed revised USSCP risk categories based on the added effects of climate change. Our Assessment of change in risk due to climate change is assessed by adding arrows across rows (1 up arrow and 1 down arrow result in a net of 0 arrows), and using the decision rule of 4 arrows (net, up or down) to shift risk categories.</p>1<p>The lower scores, which were not published as part of the State of the Birds, were provided by the U.S. NABCI Committee.</p>2<p>Based on our risk analysis, this would be the new U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan risk category; we added a new risk category – 6 (Critical, <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899#pone-0108899-t003\" target=\"_blank\">Table 3</a>) – to account for qualitatively greater risk than the current U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan assessment allows.</p><p>Results of predicted change in extinction risk to shorebird species based on climate change.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Shorebird Conservation Plan", "usa", "climate change", "North American Shorebirds", "species", "U.S", "Extinction risk", "risk factor decrease", "shorebird extinction risks"], "article_id"=>1187973, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Hector Galbraith", "David W. DesRochers", "Stephen Brown", "J. Michael Reed"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Results_of_predicted_change_in_extinction_risk_to_shorebird_species_based_on_climate_change_/1187973", "title"=>"Results of predicted change in extinction risk to shorebird species based on climate change.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-09-30 03:37:50"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1697875"], "description"=>"<p>Values are given by scores (similar to the PIF approach) and by arrows. Note that negative scores/down arrows indicate a decreased extinction risk due to climate change. Our current assessment is based on 4 arrows in the same direction (up or down) being sufficient to shift a species to the next risk category.</p><p>List of risk factors evaluated for species sensitivity to climate change.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Shorebird Conservation Plan", "usa", "climate change", "North American Shorebirds", "species", "U.S", "Extinction risk", "risk factor decrease", "shorebird extinction risks"], "article_id"=>1187972, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Hector Galbraith", "David W. DesRochers", "Stephen Brown", "J. Michael Reed"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0108899.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>18, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_List_of_risk_factors_evaluated_for_species_sensitivity_to_climate_change_/1187972", "title"=>"List of risk factors evaluated for species sensitivity to climate change.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-09-30 03:37:50"}

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Relative Metric

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