Prospect Theory for Online Financial Trading
Publication Date
October 15, 2014
Journal
PLOS ONE
Authors
Yang Yu Liu, Jose C. Nacher, Tomoshiro Ochiai, Mauro Martino, et al
Volume
9
Issue
10
Pages
e109458
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0109458
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0109458
PubMed
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25330203
PubMed Central
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4198126
Europe PMC
http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/25330203
Scopus
84908102363
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/prospect-theory-online-financial-trading
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Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"Prospect theory for online financial trading", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Yang Yu", "last_name"=>"Liu", "scopus_author_id"=>"52563770900"}, {"first_name"=>"Jose C.", "last_name"=>"Nacher", "scopus_author_id"=>"7003322263"}, {"first_name"=>"Tomoshiro", "last_name"=>"Ochiai", "scopus_author_id"=>"10141670500"}, {"first_name"=>"Mauro", "last_name"=>"Martino", "scopus_author_id"=>"35810773200"}, {"first_name"=>"Yaniv", "last_name"=>"Altshuler", "scopus_author_id"=>"14033708500"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84908102363", "sgr"=>"84908102363", "issn"=>"19326203", "arxiv"=>"1402.6393", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0109458", "pmid"=>"25330203", "isbn"=>"1932-6203 (Electronic)\\r1932-6203 (Linking)", "pui"=>"600169975"}, "id"=>"25b72d20-8c23-377a-b325-dab251bb8e33", "abstract"=>"Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, a phenomenon called \"loss aversion\". Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well developed in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few large-scale empirical studies and most of them have been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze over 28.5 million trades made by 81.3 thousand traders of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behavior of winning and losing trades and traders, we find clear evidence of the loss aversion phenomenon, an essence in prospect theory. This work hence demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory, which has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the effect of loss aversion. Moreover, we introduce three risk-adjusted metrics inspired by prospect theory to differentiate winning and losing traders based on their historical trading behavior. This offers us potential opportunities to augment online social trading, where traders are allowed to watch and follow the trading activities of others, by predicting potential winners statistically based on their historical trading behavior rather than their trading performance at any given point in time.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/prospect-theory-online-financial-trading", "reader_count"=>44, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>4, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>12, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Other"=>3, "Student > Master"=>8, "Student > Bachelor"=>7, "Lecturer"=>1, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>2, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>4, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>12, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Other"=>3, "Student > Master"=>8, "Student > Bachelor"=>7, "Lecturer"=>1, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>2, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Engineering"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>1, "Mathematics"=>3, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>2, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>1, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>4, "Physics and Astronomy"=>5, "Psychology"=>2, "Computer Science"=>8, "Decision Sciences"=>1, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>12}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>2}, "Decision Sciences"=>{"Decision Sciences"=>1}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>5}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>2}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>12}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>1}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>8}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>4}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>3}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>4}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Canada"=>1, "Turkey"=>1, "Luxembourg"=>1, "Finland"=>1, "Estonia"=>1}, "group_count"=>3}

Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1718886"], "description"=>"<p>For each trade type, we further distinguish negative and positive trades based on their net profit. The trades with zero net profit are negligible. The duration distributions of negative and positive trades are normalized according to their corresponding occurrence. (<b>a</b>) All trades. (<b>b</b>) Non-social trades. (<b>c</b>) Copy trades. (<b>d</b>) Mirror trades.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["prospect theory", "reflection effect", "Online Financial Trading Prospect theory", "trading behavior", "loss aversion phenomenon", "trader"], "article_id"=>1205760, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Yang-Yu Liu", "Jose C. Nacher", "Tomoshiro Ochiai", "Mauro Martino", "Yaniv Altshuler"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0109458.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>14, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Duration_distribution_of_different_trade_types_/1205760", "title"=>"Duration distribution of different trade types.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-15 03:31:40"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1718891"], "description"=>"<p>Here, we bin the net profit of different trade types in logarithmic bins. (If , we bin it using .) For the trades contained in each bin, we draw the box-and-whisker plot for their duration (), representing the minimum, first quartile, median, third quartiles, and maximum of the data in the bin. (<b>a</b>) All trades. (<b>b</b>) Non-social trades. (<b>c</b>) Copy trades. (<b>d</b>) Mirror trades.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["prospect theory", "reflection effect", "Online Financial Trading Prospect theory", "trading behavior", "loss aversion phenomenon", "trader"], "article_id"=>1205764, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Yang-Yu Liu", "Jose C. Nacher", "Tomoshiro Ochiai", "Mauro Martino", "Yaniv Altshuler"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0109458.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Disposition_effect_in_different_trade_types_/1205764", "title"=>"Disposition effect in different trade types.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-15 03:31:40"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1718883"], "description"=>"<p>(<b>a</b>) Fraction of positive trades. Mirror trade has the highest fraction of positive trades. (<b>b</b>) Mean ROI. Mirror trade is the only trade type that has the positive . Here error bars mean the standard error of the mean (SEM). (<b>c</b>) Mean ROI of positive trades. Mirror trade has the lowest for positive trades. (<b>d</b>) Mean ROI of negative trades. Mirror trade has the highest negative for negative trades.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["prospect theory", "reflection effect", "Online Financial Trading Prospect theory", "trading behavior", "loss aversion phenomenon", "trader"], "article_id"=>1205757, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Yang-Yu Liu", "Jose C. Nacher", "Tomoshiro Ochiai", "Mauro Martino", "Yaniv Altshuler"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0109458.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>17, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Performance_comparison_of_different_types_of_trades_/1205757", "title"=>"Performance comparison of different types of trades.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-15 03:31:40"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1718893"], "description"=>"<p>(<b>a, b</b>) Distribution of risk-reward ratio (). and are the profit of winning positions and the loss of losing positions, respectively, of traders. (<b>c, d</b>) Distribution of win-loss waiting time ratio (). Here and are the average duration time of winning and losing positions, respectively, of traders. (<b>e, f</b>) Distribution of win-loss ROI ratio (). and are the ROI of winning and losing positions, respectively, of traders. (<b>g, h</b>) Distribution of winning percentage () of traders. and are the number of winning and losing positions, respectively, of traders.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["prospect theory", "reflection effect", "Online Financial Trading Prospect theory", "trading behavior", "loss aversion phenomenon", "trader"], "article_id"=>1205766, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Yang-Yu Liu", "Jose C. Nacher", "Tomoshiro Ochiai", "Mauro Martino", "Yaniv Altshuler"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0109458.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>19, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Characterizing_winning_and_losing_traders_based_on_historical_trading_behavior_/1205766", "title"=>"Characterizing winning and losing traders based on historical trading behavior.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-15 03:31:40"}

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Relative Metric

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