Estimating the Potential Impact of Canine Distemper Virus on the Amur Tiger Population (Panthera tigris altaica) in Russia
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{"title"=>"Estimating the potential impact of canine distemper virus on the Amur tiger population (Panthera tigris altaica) in Russia", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Martin", "last_name"=>"Gilbert", "scopus_author_id"=>"7202762498"}, {"first_name"=>"Dale G.", "last_name"=>"Miquelle", "scopus_author_id"=>"6603481067"}, {"first_name"=>"John M.", "last_name"=>"Goodrich", "scopus_author_id"=>"7102131309"}, {"first_name"=>"Richard", "last_name"=>"Reeve", "scopus_author_id"=>"35730417600"}, {"first_name"=>"Sarah", "last_name"=>"Cleaveland", "scopus_author_id"=>"6602122886"}, {"first_name"=>"Louise", "last_name"=>"Matthews", "scopus_author_id"=>"7202488795"}, {"first_name"=>"Damien O.", "last_name"=>"Joly", "scopus_author_id"=>"7005670706"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"sgr"=>"84908583829", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0110811", "pui"=>"600310203", "pmid"=>"25354196", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84908583829", "issn"=>"19326203", "isbn"=>"1932-6203 (Electronic)\\r1932-6203 (Linking)"}, "id"=>"07af9cb1-3b0e-3e44-806f-5f40e671c72b", "abstract"=>"Lethal infections with canine distemper virus (CDV) have recently been diagnosed in Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica), but long-term implications for the population are unknown. This study evaluates the potential impact of CDV on a key tiger population in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), and assesses how CDV might influence the extinction potential of other tiger populations of varying sizes. An individual-based stochastic, SIRD (susceptible-infected-recovered/dead) model was used to simulate infection through predation of infected domestic dogs, and/or wild carnivores, and direct tiger-to-tiger transmission. CDV prevalence and effective contact based on published and observed data was used to define plausible low- and high-risk infection scenarios. CDV infection increased the 50-year extinction probability of tigers in SABZ by 6.3% to 55.8% compared to a control population, depending on risk scenario. The most significant factors influencing model outcome were virus prevalence in the reservoir population(s) and its effective contact rate with tigers. Adjustment of the mortality rate had a proportional impact, while inclusion of epizootic infection waves had negligible additional impact. Small populations were found to be disproportionately vulnerable to extinction through CDV infection. The 50-year extinction risk in populations consisting of 25 individuals was 1.65 times greater when CDV was present than that of control populations. The effects of density dependence do not protect an endangered population from the impacts of a multi-host pathogen, such as CDV, where they coexist with an abundant reservoir presenting a persistent threat. Awareness of CDV is a critical component of a successful tiger conservation management policy.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/estimating-potential-impact-canine-distemper-virus-amur-tiger-population-panthera-tigris-altaica-rus", "reader_count"=>37, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>3, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>4, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>8, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Other"=>2, "Student > Master"=>9, "Student > Bachelor"=>4, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>2}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>3, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>4, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>8, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Other"=>2, "Student > Master"=>9, "Student > Bachelor"=>4, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Environmental Science"=>6, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>13, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>3, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>7, "Computer Science"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>3}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>13}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>1}, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>{"Nursing and Health Professions"=>1}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>4}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>6}, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>{"Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>7}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>1, "Mexico"=>1}, "group_count"=>3}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1771159"], "description"=>"<p>Details of the fifteen canine distemper virus (CDV) infection scenarios used in the model simulations, used to determine tiger population growth rate (<i>lambda</i>, λ, calculated through 50 simulations with a founder population of 200 female and 100 male tigers) and 50-year extinction probability (calculated through 1,000 simulations as the proportion of simulations where population were reduced to zero before the run was complete).</p><p>*Derived from 3.4% of 551 kills per year comprising wild carnivore prey (30), and a median of one kill every 7.5 days (or 48.53 kills/year) (42).</p><p>Summary of model scenarios.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["impact", "Russia Lethal infections", "SABZ", "Amur Tiger Population", "CDV infection", "SIRD", "tiger conservation management policy", "extinction", "Panthera tigris altaica", "Canine Distemper Virus", "epizootic infection waves"], "article_id"=>1222405, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Martin Gilbert", "Dale G. Miquelle", "John M. Goodrich", "Richard Reeve", "Sarah Cleaveland", "Louise Matthews", "Damien O. Joly"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0110811.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Summary_of_model_scenarios_/1222405", "title"=>"Summary of model scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-10-29 03:17:23"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1771160"], "description"=>"<div><p>Lethal infections with canine distemper virus (CDV) have recently been diagnosed in Amur tigers (<i>Panthera tigris altaica</i>), but long-term implications for the population are unknown. This study evaluates the potential impact of CDV on a key tiger population in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), and assesses how CDV might influence the extinction potential of other tiger populations of varying sizes. An individual-based stochastic, SIRD (susceptible-infected-recovered/dead) model was used to simulate infection through predation of infected domestic dogs, and/or wild carnivores, and direct tiger-to-tiger transmission. CDV prevalence and effective contact based on published and observed data was used to define plausible low- and high-risk infection scenarios. CDV infection increased the 50-year extinction probability of tigers in SABZ by 6.3% to 55.8% compared to a control population, depending on risk scenario. The most significant factors influencing model outcome were virus prevalence in the reservoir population(s) and its effective contact rate with tigers. Adjustment of the mortality rate had a proportional impact, while inclusion of epizootic infection waves had negligible additional impact. Small populations were found to be disproportionately vulnerable to extinction through CDV infection. The 50-year extinction risk in populations consisting of 25 individuals was 1.65 times greater when CDV was present than that of control populations. The effects of density dependence do not protect an endangered population from the impacts of a multi-host pathogen, such as CDV, where they coexist with an abundant reservoir presenting a persistent threat. Awareness of CDV is a critical component of a successful tiger conservation management policy.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["impact", "Russia Lethal infections", "SABZ", "Amur Tiger Population", "CDV infection", "SIRD", "tiger conservation management policy", "extinction", "Panthera tigris altaica", "Canine Distemper Virus", "epizootic infection waves"], "article_id"=>1222406, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Martin Gilbert", "Dale G. Miquelle", "John M. Goodrich", "Richard Reeve", "Sarah Cleaveland", "Louise Matthews", "Damien O. Joly"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0110811", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>15, "page_views"=>20, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Estimating_the_Potential_Impact_of_Canine_Distemper_Virus_on_the_Amur_Tiger_Population_Panthera_tigris_altaica_in_Russia/1222406", "title"=>"Estimating the Potential Impact of Canine Distemper Virus on the Amur Tiger Population (<i>Panthera tigris altaica</i>) in Russia", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-10-29 03:17:23"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1771157"], "description"=>"<p>Mean growth rate (λ) was obtained through fifty model simulations, using a variety of infection scenarios including a) direct transmission of CDV through tiger predation of dogs, wild carnivores (wildlife) and both dogs and wild carnivores combined at low and high risk infection rates, b) low risk infection through predation of dogs and wild carnivores and an infectious period of 30, 45 and 60 days, c) low risk infection through predation of dogs and wild carnivores with mortality rate of 30%, 40% and 50%, and d) enzootic infections cycles of three, five and seven years alongside equivalent mean values without cycling. Tiger-to-tiger infection is included in all infection scenarios. The dashed line indicates the threshold growth rate, below which populations will become extinct within one hundred years.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["impact", "Russia Lethal infections", "SABZ", "Amur Tiger Population", "CDV infection", "SIRD", "tiger conservation management policy", "extinction", "Panthera tigris altaica", "Canine Distemper Virus", "epizootic infection waves"], "article_id"=>1222403, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Martin Gilbert", "Dale G. Miquelle", "John M. Goodrich", "Richard Reeve", "Sarah Cleaveland", "Louise Matthews", "Damien O. Joly"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0110811.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>10, "page_views"=>89, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Mean_population_growth_rate_for_canine_distemper_virus_CDV_infection_scenarios_in_an_Amur_tiger_population_/1222403", "title"=>"Mean population growth rate for canine distemper virus (CDV) infection scenarios in an Amur tiger population.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-29 03:17:23"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1771158"], "description"=>"<p>Mean tiger population size was obtained through one thousand model simulations. Starting populations of 17 territorial females and 5 territorial males were used to simulate the tiger population in the Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik, and CDV was introduced in year 40 (vertical dashed line). Individual plots illustrate a) direct CDV infection between tigers and dogs, wild carnivores (both individually and combined), under low risk (blue) and high risk (red) infection scenarios, b) the effect of varying the duration of tiger infectious period at 30 days, 45 days and 60 days with tigers exposed to dogs and wild carnivores under conditions of low risk of infection, c) the effect of varying mortality rate of infected tigers carnivores under conditions of low risk of infection, and d) the effect of varying epizootic infection cycles of three years, five years and seven years with tigers exposed to dogs and wild carnivores under conditions of high risk of infection in epizootic years, and low risk in all other years (red), and holding prevalence at a constant equivalent to the mean annual prevalence of three, five and seven year infection cycles (blue). Control scenarios are represented in all panels (green). Tiger-to-tiger transmission is permitted in all model runs.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["impact", "Russia Lethal infections", "SABZ", "Amur Tiger Population", "CDV infection", "SIRD", "tiger conservation management policy", "extinction", "Panthera tigris altaica", "Canine Distemper Virus", "epizootic infection waves"], "article_id"=>1222404, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Martin Gilbert", "Dale G. Miquelle", "John M. Goodrich", "Richard Reeve", "Sarah Cleaveland", "Louise Matthews", "Damien O. Joly"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0110811.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>7, "page_views"=>100, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Changes_in_mean_tiger_population_size_over_time_under_various_canine_distemper_virus_CDV_infection_scenarios_/1222404", "title"=>"Changes in mean tiger population size over time under various canine distemper virus (CDV) infection scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-29 03:17:23"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1771156"], "description"=>"<p>Points illustrate the mean probability that a tiger population of given starting size will decline to extinction over 1,000 model simulations both with canine distemper virus (CDV) infection (black dots) and a control scenario without CDV (open diamonds).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["impact", "Russia Lethal infections", "SABZ", "Amur Tiger Population", "CDV infection", "SIRD", "tiger conservation management policy", "extinction", "Panthera tigris altaica", "Canine Distemper Virus", "epizootic infection waves"], "article_id"=>1222402, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Martin Gilbert", "Dale G. Miquelle", "John M. Goodrich", "Richard Reeve", "Sarah Cleaveland", "Louise Matthews", "Damien O. Joly"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0110811.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>19, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_50_year_extinction_probabilities_for_tiger_populations_of_variable_size_/1222402", "title"=>"50-year extinction probabilities for tiger populations of variable size.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-29 03:17:23"}

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Relative Metric

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Net::HTTPInternalServerError

Source
Counter
Time
2019-04-06 02:38:25 UTC
Target URL
http://counter-101.soma.plos.org/api/v1.0/stats/doi/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0110811
Trace

/app/models/concerns/networkable.rb:21:in `get_result'
/app/models/source.rb:165:in `get_data'
/app/models/retrieval_status.rb:47:in `perform_get_data'
/app/jobs/source_job.rb:52:in `block (2 levels) in perform'
/app/jobs/source_job.rb:51:in `block in perform'
/app/jobs/source_job.rb:35:in `each'
/app/jobs/source_job.rb:35:in `perform'