Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings
Publication Date
July 02, 2015
Journal
PLOS ONE
Authors
Sherry Towers, Andres Gomez Lievano, Maryam Khan, Anuj Mubayi, et al
Volume
10
Issue
7
Pages
e0117259
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0117259
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0117259
PubMed
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26135941
PubMed Central
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4489652
Europe PMC
http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/26135941
Web of Science
000358154400002
Scopus
84940100241
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/contagion-mass-killings-school-shootings
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{"title"=>"Contagion in mass killings and school shootings", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Sherry", "last_name"=>"Towers", "scopus_author_id"=>"35346084100"}, {"first_name"=>"Andres", "last_name"=>"Gomez-Lievano", "scopus_author_id"=>"55316992100"}, {"first_name"=>"Maryam", "last_name"=>"Khan", "scopus_author_id"=>"57199444520"}, {"first_name"=>"Anuj", "last_name"=>"Mubayi", "scopus_author_id"=>"26632147200"}, {"first_name"=>"Carlos", "last_name"=>"Castillo-Chavez", "scopus_author_id"=>"7003725806"}], "year"=>2015, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84940100241", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0117259", "sgr"=>"84940100241", "isbn"=>"19326203 (ISSN)", "pmid"=>"26135941", "issn"=>"19326203", "pui"=>"605761096"}, "id"=>"c76dcc07-d8a1-37d8-b57f-5dc823fe5cf8", "abstract"=>"BACKGROUND: Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.\\n\\nMETHODS: Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.\\n\\nCONCLUSIONS: We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/contagion-mass-killings-school-shootings", "reader_count"=>90, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>12, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>7, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>17, "Student > Postgraduate"=>4, "Student > Master"=>14, "Other"=>6, "Student > Bachelor"=>23, "Lecturer"=>2, "Professor"=>2}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>12, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>7, "Student > Ph. D. 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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2160038"], "description"=>"<p>Correlations with ∣<i>ρ</i>∣ ≥ 0.28 are significant to <i>p</i> < 0.05.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["School Shootings BackgroundSeveral", "school shootings", "contagion model", "firearm", "likelihood ratio test", "mass killings", "incident", "13 days"], "article_id"=>1471824, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Sherry Towers", "Andres Gomez-Lievano", "Maryam Khan", "Anuj Mubayi", "Carlos Castillo-Chavez"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0117259.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>318, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relationship_of_state_prevalence_of_firearm_ownership_mental_illness_and_state_rankings_of_strength_of_firearm_legislation_to_the_state_incidence_of_mass_killings_school_shootings_and_mass_shootings_/1471824", "title"=>"Relationship of state prevalence of firearm ownership, mental illness, and state rankings of strength of firearm legislation, to the state incidence of mass killings, school shootings, and mass shootings.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-07-02 02:49:27"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2160039"], "description"=>"<p><i>N</i><sub>secondary</sub> is the average number of new incidents. The p-value is obtained from the likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of the full contagion model to the likelihood of the null hypothesis model of no contagion. The numbers in the square brackets indicate the 95% confidence interval on the parameter.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["School Shootings BackgroundSeveral", "school shootings", "contagion model", "firearm", "likelihood ratio test", "mass killings", "incident", "13 days"], "article_id"=>1471825, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Sherry Towers", "Andres Gomez-Lievano", "Maryam Khan", "Anuj Mubayi", "Carlos Castillo-Chavez"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0117259.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>16, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Results_of_fits_of_the_self_excitation_contagion_model_in_Eq_4_to_the_various_data_samples_considered_in_these_studies_using_a_running_mean_calculation_of_N_0_t_/1471825", "title"=>"Results of fits of the self-excitation contagion model in Eq 4 to the various data samples considered in these studies, using a running mean calculation of <i>N</i><sub>0</sub>(<i>t</i>).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2015-07-02 02:49:27"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2160040", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2160041"], "description"=>"<div><p>Background</p><p>Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (<i>p</i> = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (<i>p</i> = 0.0001). All <i>p</i>-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["School Shootings BackgroundSeveral", "school shootings", "contagion model", "firearm", "likelihood ratio test", "mass killings", "incident", "13 days"], "article_id"=>1471826, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Sherry Towers", "Andres Gomez-Lievano", "Maryam Khan", "Anuj Mubayi", "Carlos Castillo-Chavez"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0117259.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0117259.s002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>10, "page_views"=>12, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Contagion_in_Mass_Killings_and_School_Shootings_/1471826", "title"=>"Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2015-07-02 02:49:27"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2160037"], "description"=>"<p>For clarity of presentation, all data samples are shown over the same time frame. Overlaid is the fit of the full model of <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0117259#pone.0117259.e004\" target=\"_blank\">Eq 4</a> that also contains a contagion component (red). The green line indicates the estimated portion of the data due to contagion. The points along the <i>x</i> axis for the first three samples indicate the date of events that had number of people killed in the top 5<sup>th</sup> percentile for that sample.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["School Shootings BackgroundSeveral", "school shootings", "contagion model", "firearm", "likelihood ratio test", "mass killings", "incident", "13 days"], "article_id"=>1471823, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Science Policy"], "users"=>["Sherry Towers", "Andres Gomez-Lievano", "Maryam Khan", "Anuj Mubayi", "Carlos Castillo-Chavez"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0117259.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>17, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Number_of_mass_killings_school_shootings_and_mass_shootings_over_time_for_the_data_samples_used_in_these_studies_/1471823", "title"=>"Number of mass killings, school shootings, and mass shootings over time for the data samples used in these studies.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-07-02 02:49:27"}

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{"start_date"=>"2015-01-01T00:00:00Z", "end_date"=>"2015-12-31T00:00:00Z", "subject_areas"=>[]}
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