Expertly Validated Models and Phylogenetically-Controlled Analysis Suggests Responses to Climate Change Are Related to Species Traits in the Order Lagomorpha
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{"title"=>"Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the order Lagomorpha", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Katie", "last_name"=>"Leach", "scopus_author_id"=>"55575787800"}, {"first_name"=>"Ruth", "last_name"=>"Kelly", "scopus_author_id"=>"55560787600"}, {"first_name"=>"Alison", "last_name"=>"Cameron", "scopus_author_id"=>"24474094300"}, {"first_name"=>"W. Ian", "last_name"=>"Montgomery", "scopus_author_id"=>"7101969065"}, {"first_name"=>"Neil", "last_name"=>"Reid", "scopus_author_id"=>"22958303900"}], "year"=>2015, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"isbn"=>"1932-6203", "pmid"=>"25874407", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0122267", "pui"=>"604108246", "issn"=>"19326203", "sgr"=>"84929485536", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84929485536"}, "id"=>"5d233796-0e7c-3c27-b2e0-1dba32eab48a", "abstract"=>"Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov's Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/expertly-validated-models-phylogeneticallycontrolled-analysis-suggests-responses-climate-change-rela-2", "reader_count"=>35, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>7, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>10, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>6, "Other"=>3, "Student > Bachelor"=>1, "Lecturer"=>1, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>7, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>10, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>6, "Other"=>3, "Student > Bachelor"=>1, "Lecturer"=>1, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Environmental Science"=>10, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>19, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Immunology and Microbiology"=>{"Immunology and Microbiology"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>19}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>2}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>10}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Denmark"=>1, "Portugal"=>1, "Germany"=>1}, "group_count"=>6}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2021529"], "description"=>"<p>Scatterplots show the linear relationship between range change (%) and (<b>a</b>) poleward movement (°), (<b>b</b>) elevational change (m) and (<b>c</b>) poleward movement and elevational change. The numbers of species in each quadrant that exhibited positive or negative change on each axis are shown with percentages in parentheses. Temporal trends for (<b>d</b>) range change, (<b>e</b>) poleward movement and (<b>f</b>) elevational change ± 1 standard error for each species group; pikas (red), rabbits (blue) and hares and jackrabbits (black).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["future climate change", "climate change", "Order Lagomorpha Climate change", "species distribution models", "Expertly Validated Models", "87 lagomorph species", "future climate scenarios", "objective model evaluation statistics", "exhibit range contractions", "advocate studies minimising data gaps", "species traits", "sdm"], "article_id"=>1380360, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Katie Leach", "Ruth Kelly", "Alison Cameron", "W. Ian Montgomery", "Neil Reid"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122267.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>18, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Characterisation_of_predicted_lagomorph_bioclimatic_envelope_change_/1380360", "title"=>"Characterisation of predicted lagomorph bioclimatic envelope change.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-04-15 02:42:34"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2021526"], "description"=>"<p>Mean Kappa ±95% confidence intervals within the categories assigned by expert evaluation. Black bars indicate species that were deemed “modellable” and retained for further analyses, whereas grey bars indicate “unmodellable species” that were rejected. Sample sizes (i.e. numbers of species) are shown in the bars.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["future climate change", "climate change", "Order Lagomorpha Climate change", "species distribution models", "Expertly Validated Models", "87 lagomorph species", "future climate scenarios", "objective model evaluation statistics", "exhibit range contractions", "advocate studies minimising data gaps", "species traits", "sdm"], "article_id"=>1380357, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Katie Leach", "Ruth Kelly", "Alison Cameron", "W. Ian Montgomery", "Neil Reid"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122267.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>9, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Agreement_between_expert_evaluation_and_model_accuracy_/1380357", "title"=>"Agreement between expert evaluation and model accuracy.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-04-15 02:42:34"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2021544", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2021545", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2021546"], "description"=>"<div><p>Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (<i>Ochotona koslowi</i>). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["future climate change", "climate change", "Order Lagomorpha Climate change", "species distribution models", "Expertly Validated Models", "87 lagomorph species", "future climate scenarios", "objective model evaluation statistics", "exhibit range contractions", "advocate studies minimising data gaps", "species traits", "sdm"], "article_id"=>1380373, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Katie Leach", "Ruth Kelly", "Alison Cameron", "W. Ian Montgomery", "Neil Reid"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122267.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122267.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122267.s003"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>15, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Expertly_Validated_Models_and_Phylogenetically_Controlled_Analysis_Suggests_Responses_to_Climate_Change_Are_Related_to_Species_Traits_in_the_Order_Lagomorpha_/1380373", "title"=>"Expertly Validated Models and Phylogenetically-Controlled Analysis Suggests Responses to Climate Change Are Related to Species Traits in the Order Lagomorpha", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2015-04-15 02:42:34"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2021531"], "description"=>"<p>The ability of species’ traits to predict changes in (<b>a</b>) range (<b>b</b>) mean elevation (<b>c</b>) maximum elevation and (<b>d</b>) (<b>e</b>) (<b>f</b>) poleward movement under future climate (between ∼1930s and ∼2080s) for each group; pikas (red), rabbits (blue) and hares and jackrabbits (black). Diet breadth is a categorical variable and is therefore represented as a bar plot (±1 standard error) with sample sizes (i.e. numbers of species) shown above the bars. Only significant predictors of change are shown here. The dashed line at zero indicates no change in the response variable.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["future climate change", "climate change", "Order Lagomorpha Climate change", "species distribution models", "Expertly Validated Models", "87 lagomorph species", "future climate scenarios", "objective model evaluation statistics", "exhibit range contractions", "advocate studies minimising data gaps", "species traits", "sdm"], "article_id"=>1380362, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Katie Leach", "Ruth Kelly", "Alison Cameron", "W. Ian Montgomery", "Neil Reid"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122267.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>13, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relationships_between_species_traits_and_responses_to_future_climate_change_/1380362", "title"=>"Relationships between species traits and responses to future climate change.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-04-15 02:42:34"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2021528"], "description"=>"<p>(<b>a</b>) Global patterns in predicted species loss and gain showing details in (<b>b</b>) North America and (<b>c</b>) Asia. Light grey indicates areas occupied by “unmodellable” species with uncertain outcomes.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["future climate change", "climate change", "Order Lagomorpha Climate change", "species distribution models", "Expertly Validated Models", "87 lagomorph species", "future climate scenarios", "objective model evaluation statistics", "exhibit range contractions", "advocate studies minimising data gaps", "species traits", "sdm"], "article_id"=>1380359, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Katie Leach", "Ruth Kelly", "Alison Cameron", "W. Ian Montgomery", "Neil Reid"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122267.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>13, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Change_in_predicted_lagomorph_species_richness_from_the_1930s_to_2080s_/1380359", "title"=>"Change in predicted lagomorph species richness from the 1930s to 2080s.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-04-15 02:42:34"}

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Relative Metric

{"start_date"=>"2015-01-01T00:00:00Z", "end_date"=>"2015-12-31T00:00:00Z", "subject_areas"=>[]}
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