Potential for Worldwide Displacement of Fossil-Fuel Electricity by Nuclear Energy in Three Decades Based on Extrapolation of Regional Deployment Data
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{"title"=>"Potential for worldwide displacement of fossil-fuel electricity by nuclear energy in three decades based on extrapolation of regional deployment data", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Staffan A.", "last_name"=>"Qvist", "scopus_author_id"=>"55416243700"}, {"first_name"=>"Barry W.", "last_name"=>"Brook", "scopus_author_id"=>"7003956690"}], "year"=>2015, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"19326203", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84929353127", "sgr"=>"84929353127", "pui"=>"604377907", "pmid"=>"25970621", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0124074"}, "id"=>"cf346cbb-7007-3718-8b90-5950ff46d85a", "abstract"=>"There is an ongoing debate about the deployment rates and composition of alternative ener-gy plans that could feasibly displace fossil fuels globally by mid-century, as required to avoid the more extreme impacts of climate change. Here we demonstrate the potential for a large-scale expansion of global nuclear power to replace fossil-fuel electricity production, based on empirical data from the Swedish and French light water reactor programs of the 1960s to 1990s. Analysis of these historical deployments show that if the world built nuclear power at no more than the per capita rate of these exemplar nations during their national ex-pansion, then coal-and gas-fired electricity could be replaced worldwide in less than a de-cade. Under more conservative projections that take into account probable constraints and uncertainties such as differing relative economic output across regions, current and past unit construction time and costs, future electricity demand growth forecasts and the retiring of existing aging nuclear plants, our modelling estimates that the global share of fossil-fuel-derived electricity could be replaced within 25–34 years. This would allow the world to meet the most stringent greenhouse-gas mitigation targets.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/potential-worldwide-displacement-fossilfuel-electricity-nuclear-energy-three-decades-based-extrapola", "reader_count"=>32, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>6, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>8, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>5, "Other"=>2, "Student > Bachelor"=>4, "Professor"=>3}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>6, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>8, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>5, "Other"=>2, "Student > Bachelor"=>4, "Professor"=>3}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>3, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>1, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>3, "Chemistry"=>2, "Computer Science"=>3, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>1, "Energy"=>1, "Engineering"=>5, "Environmental Science"=>3, "Materials Science"=>1, "Physics and Astronomy"=>4, "Psychology"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>3, "Linguistics"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Materials Science"=>{"Materials Science"=>1}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>3}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>4}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>3}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>3}, "Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>5}, "Chemistry"=>{"Chemistry"=>2}, "Energy"=>{"Energy"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>1}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>3}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>3}, "Linguistics"=>{"Linguistics"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Colombia"=>1, "United States"=>2, "Finland"=>1, "Germany"=>1}, "group_count"=>3}

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  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2065531"], "description"=>"<p>Time to replace global fossil electricity and current nuclear fleet.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["unit construction time", "modelling estimates", "world", "deployments show", "climate change", "Regional Deployment Data", "future electricity demand growth forecasts", "exemplar nations", "capita rate", "deployment rates", "Nuclear Energy", "Worldwide Displacement", "alternative energy plans", "French light water reactor programs", "mitigation targets"], "article_id"=>1412941, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Staffan A. Qvist", "Barry W. Brook"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124074.t005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Time_to_replace_global_fossil_electricity_and_current_nuclear_fleet_/1412941", "title"=>"Time to replace global fossil electricity and current nuclear fleet.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2015-05-13 02:45:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2065530"], "description"=>"<p>Data used for global nuclear expansion rate estimations.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["unit construction time", "modelling estimates", "world", "deployments show", "climate change", "Regional Deployment Data", "future electricity demand growth forecasts", "exemplar nations", "capita rate", "deployment rates", "Nuclear Energy", "Worldwide Displacement", "alternative energy plans", "French light water reactor programs", "mitigation targets"], "article_id"=>1412940, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Staffan A. Qvist", "Barry W. Brook"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124074.t004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>3, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Data_used_for_global_nuclear_expansion_rate_estimations_/1412940", "title"=>"Data used for global nuclear expansion rate estimations.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2015-05-13 02:45:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2065527"], "description"=>"<p>Swedish total CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and GDP per capita 1960–1990, normalized to the level of 1960.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["unit construction time", "modelling estimates", "world", "deployments show", "climate change", "Regional Deployment Data", "future electricity demand growth forecasts", "exemplar nations", "capita rate", "deployment rates", "Nuclear Energy", "Worldwide Displacement", "alternative energy plans", "French light water reactor programs", "mitigation targets"], "article_id"=>1412937, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Staffan A. Qvist", "Barry W. Brook"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124074.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>17, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Swedish_total_CO_2_emissions_and_GDP_per_capita_1960_8211_1990_normalized_to_the_level_of_1960_/1412937", "title"=>"Swedish total CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and GDP per capita 1960–1990, normalized to the level of 1960.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-05-13 02:45:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2065532"], "description"=>"<div><p>There is an ongoing debate about the deployment rates and composition of alternative energy plans that could feasibly displace fossil fuels globally by mid-century, as required to avoid the more extreme impacts of climate change. Here we demonstrate the potential for a large-scale expansion of global nuclear power to replace fossil-fuel electricity production, based on empirical data from the Swedish and French light water reactor programs of the 1960s to 1990s. Analysis of these historical deployments show that if the world built nuclear power at no more than the per capita rate of these exemplar nations during their national expansion, then coal- and gas-fired electricity could be replaced worldwide in less than a decade. Under more conservative projections that take into account probable constraints and uncertainties such as differing relative economic output across regions, current and past unit construction time and costs, future electricity demand growth forecasts and the retiring of existing aging nuclear plants, our modelling estimates that the global share of fossil-fuel-derived electricity could be replaced within <b>25–34 years</b>. This would allow the world to meet the most stringent greenhouse-gas mitigation targets.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["unit construction time", "modelling estimates", "world", "deployments show", "climate change", "Regional Deployment Data", "future electricity demand growth forecasts", "exemplar nations", "capita rate", "deployment rates", "Nuclear Energy", "Worldwide Displacement", "alternative energy plans", "French light water reactor programs", "mitigation targets"], "article_id"=>1412942, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Staffan A. Qvist", "Barry W. Brook"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124074", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>77, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Potential_for_Worldwide_Displacement_of_Fossil_Fuel_Electricity_by_Nuclear_Energy_in_Three_Decades_Based_on_Extrapolation_of_Regional_Deployment_Data_/1412942", "title"=>"Potential for Worldwide Displacement of Fossil-Fuel Electricity by Nuclear Energy in Three Decades Based on Extrapolation of Regional Deployment Data", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2015-05-13 02:45:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2065529"], "description"=>"<p>*Reactor cost data for recently constructed reactors was collected from official press releases. When costs were only given as a lumped sum for multiple units at a plant, the cost for a single unit was calculated by multiplying the total plant cost by the power output of the unit relative to the total plant power output.</p><p><sup>†</sup>Only specific cost data for the Ringhals NPP and Oskarshamn NPP was found [<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0124074#pone.0124074.ref011\" target=\"_blank\">11</a>]</p><p>Nuclear power plant construction time and cost comparison [<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0124074#pone.0124074.ref011\" target=\"_blank\">11</a>] [<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0124074#pone.0124074.ref016\" target=\"_blank\">16</a>] [<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0124074#pone.0124074.ref012\" target=\"_blank\">12</a>].</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["unit construction time", "modelling estimates", "world", "deployments show", "climate change", "Regional Deployment Data", "future electricity demand growth forecasts", "exemplar nations", "capita rate", "deployment rates", "Nuclear Energy", "Worldwide Displacement", "alternative energy plans", "French light water reactor programs", "mitigation targets"], "article_id"=>1412939, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Staffan A. Qvist", "Barry W. Brook"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124074.t003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>29, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Nuclear_power_plant_construction_time_and_cost_comparison_11_16_12_/1412939", "title"=>"Nuclear power plant construction time and cost comparison [11] [16] [12].", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2015-05-13 02:45:07"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2065528"], "description"=>"<p>Swedish nuclear electricity production 1966–1986 [<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0124074#pone.0124074.ref014\" target=\"_blank\">14</a>].</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["unit construction time", "modelling estimates", "world", "deployments show", "climate change", "Regional Deployment Data", "future electricity demand growth forecasts", "exemplar nations", "capita rate", "deployment rates", "Nuclear Energy", "Worldwide Displacement", "alternative energy plans", "French light water reactor programs", "mitigation targets"], "article_id"=>1412938, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Staffan A. Qvist", "Barry W. Brook"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124074.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Swedish_nuclear_electricity_production_1966_1986_14_/1412938", "title"=>"Swedish nuclear electricity production 1966–1986 [14].", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-05-13 02:45:07"}

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{"start_date"=>"2015-01-01T00:00:00Z", "end_date"=>"2015-12-31T00:00:00Z", "subject_areas"=>[]}
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