Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change
Publication Date
September 02, 2015
Journal
PLOS ONE
Authors
Gary M. Langham, Justin G. Schuetz, Trisha Distler, Candan U. Soykan, et al
Volume
10
Issue
9
Pages
e0135350
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0135350
PubMed
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26333202
PubMed Central
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4558014
Europe PMC
http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/26333202
Web of Science
000360613800029
Scopus
84947578342
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/conservation-status-north-american-birds-face-future-climate-change-3
Events
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Mendeley | Further Information

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Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251243"], "description"=>"<p><b>(a)</b> Two-dimensional density plot (10% contours) of North American bird species showing current range stability versus potential range expansion for <b>(b)</b> breeding (<i>n</i> = 475) with three distinct groups: (i) current geographic range decreases with little to no expansion potential; (ii) current geographic range shifts to other parts of North America; and, (iii) current geographic range remains stable and, in some cases, expands, and <b>(c)</b> non-breeding seasons (<i>n</i> = 503). Species with expansion values >1.0 were truncated to 1.0 to appear on plots.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["future climate change", "conservation planning", "correlative distribution modeling", "sres", "target climate adaptation", "North American Breeding Bird Survey", "North American birds", "future emission scenarios", "1b", "Historic climate change", "adaptive management strategies", "Audubon Christmas Bird Count", "climate change scenarios", "588 North American bird species", "climate change"], "article_id"=>1534068, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Gary M. Langham", "Justin G. Schuetz", "Trisha Distler", "Candan U. Soykan", "Chad Wilsey"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>21, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relationship_between_current_range_stability_year_2000_range_remaining_in_2080_and_potential_range_expansion_proportional_to_current_range_size_under_SRES_A2_scenario_by_year_2080_/1534068", "title"=>"Relationship between current range stability (year 2000 range remaining in 2080) and potential range expansion (proportional to current range size) under SRES A2 scenario by year 2080.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-09-02 03:44:10"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251251"], "description"=>"<p><b>(a)</b> Change in current geographic range size (year 2000) by 2080 (SRES A2) grouped by migratory behavior (<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350#pone.0135350.s005\" target=\"_blank\">S5</a> and <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350#pone.0135350.s006\" target=\"_blank\">S6</a> Appendices). <b>(b)</b> Proportional change in range size by 2080 (SRES A2) grouped by migratory behavior (<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350#pone.0135350.s005\" target=\"_blank\">S5</a> and <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350#pone.0135350.s006\" target=\"_blank\">S6</a> Appendices).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["future climate change", "conservation planning", "correlative distribution modeling", "sres", "target climate adaptation", "North American Breeding Bird Survey", "North American birds", "future emission scenarios", "1b", "Historic climate change", "adaptive management strategies", "Audubon Christmas Bird Count", "climate change scenarios", "588 North American bird species", "climate change"], "article_id"=>1534076, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Gary M. Langham", "Justin G. Schuetz", "Trisha Distler", "Candan U. Soykan", "Chad Wilsey"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>13, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Stability_and_change_in_geographic_range_size_in_the_breeding_and_non_breeding_season_in_relation_to_migratory_groups_/1534076", "title"=>"Stability and change in geographic range size in the breeding and non-breeding season in relation to migratory groups.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-09-02 03:44:10"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251248"], "description"=>"<p>Change in species distributions were calculated using weighted mean values for <b>(a)</b> distance from the coast <b>(b)</b> elevation and <b>(c)</b> latitude. Dotted lines indicate the mean across seasons. Black lines indicate medians within each season.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["future climate change", "conservation planning", "correlative distribution modeling", "sres", "target climate adaptation", "North American Breeding Bird Survey", "North American birds", "future emission scenarios", "1b", "Historic climate change", "adaptive management strategies", "Audubon Christmas Bird Count", "climate change scenarios", "588 North American bird species", "climate change"], "article_id"=>1534073, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Gary M. Langham", "Justin G. Schuetz", "Trisha Distler", "Candan U. Soykan", "Chad Wilsey"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Projected_geographic_shifts_in_breeding_and_non_breeding_distributions_from_2000_to_2080_under_a_high_emissions_SRES_A2_scenario_/1534073", "title"=>"Projected geographic shifts in breeding and non-breeding distributions from 2000 to 2080 under a high-emissions (SRES A2) scenario.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-09-02 03:44:10"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251246"], "description"=>"<p><b>(a)</b> Audubon climate risk categories: <i>Climate endangered</i> in one season (red, <i>n</i> = 108) or both (dark red, <i>n</i> = 18); <i>climate threatened</i> in one season (yellow, <i>n</i> = 166) or both (dark yellow, <i>n</i> = 22); and <i>climate stable</i> (green, <i>n</i> = 228), or <i>other</i> covering marginally occurring or introduced species (gray, <i>n</i> = 46). <b>(b)</b> Highest conservation risk status. <b>(c)</b> International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (black = critically endangered and endangered, dark gray = near threatened and vulnerable, and gray = least concern), Partners in Flight (PIF) threat scores (black = 15–20, dark gray = 10–14, gray = 5–9, and white = unranked), and U.S. federal status (Fed = black) and Birds of Conservation Concern (BCC = gray).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["future climate change", "conservation planning", "correlative distribution modeling", "sres", "target climate adaptation", "North American Breeding Bird Survey", "North American birds", "future emission scenarios", "1b", "Historic climate change", "adaptive management strategies", "Audubon Christmas Bird Count", "climate change scenarios", "588 North American bird species", "climate change"], "article_id"=>1534071, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Gary M. Langham", "Justin G. Schuetz", "Trisha Distler", "Candan U. Soykan", "Chad Wilsey"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>20, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Climate_risk_from_future_climate_change_across_North_American_bird_species_n_588_in_relation_to_existing_conservation_assessments_/1534071", "title"=>"Climate risk from future climate change across North American bird species (<i>n</i> = 588) in relation to existing conservation assessments.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-09-02 03:44:10"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251265", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251266", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251267", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251268", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251270", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251271", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251272", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251273", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251274", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251275", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251276"], "description"=>"<div><p>Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["future climate change", "conservation planning", "correlative distribution modeling", "sres", "target climate adaptation", "North American Breeding Bird Survey", "North American birds", "future emission scenarios", "1b", "Historic climate change", "adaptive management strategies", "Audubon Christmas Bird Count", "climate change scenarios", "588 North American bird species", "climate change"], "article_id"=>1534081, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Gary M. Langham", "Justin G. Schuetz", "Trisha Distler", "Candan U. Soykan", "Chad Wilsey"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.s004", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.s005", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.s006", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.s007", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.s008", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.s009", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.s010", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.s011"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Conservation_Status_of_North_American_Birds_in_the_Face_of_Future_Climate_Change_/1534081", "title"=>"Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2015-09-02 03:44:10"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2251241"], "description"=>"<p>Changes in total number of species by 2080 due to shifting ranges relative to year 2000 baseline showing potential <b>(a)</b> species gain or <b>(b)</b> loss. <b>(c)</b> Bray-Curtis dissimilarity showing turnover in species composition of local communities.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["future climate change", "conservation planning", "correlative distribution modeling", "sres", "target climate adaptation", "North American Breeding Bird Survey", "North American birds", "future emission scenarios", "1b", "Historic climate change", "adaptive management strategies", "Audubon Christmas Bird Count", "climate change scenarios", "588 North American bird species", "climate change"], "article_id"=>1534066, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Gary M. Langham", "Justin G. Schuetz", "Trisha Distler", "Candan U. Soykan", "Chad Wilsey"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135350.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Impacts_of_future_climate_change_on_geographic_ranges_of_North_American_bird_species_n_588_by_2080_during_the_breeding_top_row_and_non_breeding_season_bottom_row_under_SRES_A2_scenario_/1534066", "title"=>"Impacts of future climate change on geographic ranges of North American bird species (<i>n</i> = 588) by 2080 during the breeding (top row) and non-breeding season (bottom row) under SRES A2 scenario.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-09-02 03:44:10"}

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Relative Metric

{"start_date"=>"2015-01-01T00:00:00Z", "end_date"=>"2015-12-31T00:00:00Z", "subject_areas"=>[]}
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