Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery
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{"title"=>"Replication, communication, and the population dynamics of scientific discovery", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Richard", "last_name"=>"McElreath", "scopus_author_id"=>"6602618678"}, {"first_name"=>"Paul E.", "last_name"=>"Smaldino", "scopus_author_id"=>"45861773400"}], "year"=>2015, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84943339195", "arxiv"=>"arXiv:1503.02780v1", "sgr"=>"84943339195", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0136088", "pui"=>"606225824", "pmid"=>"26308448", "isbn"=>"0894-0282", "issn"=>"19326203"}, "id"=>"dbb0081a-6210-3d8e-b384-22969f7b70ad", "abstract"=>"Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005), and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts-suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/replication-communication-population-dynamics-scientific-discovery", "reader_count"=>105, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Researcher"=>20, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>9, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>25, "Student > Postgraduate"=>6, "Student > Master"=>14, "Other"=>8, "Student > Bachelor"=>9, "Lecturer"=>2, "Professor"=>7}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Researcher"=>20, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>9, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>25, "Student > Postgraduate"=>6, "Student > Master"=>14, "Other"=>8, "Student > Bachelor"=>9, "Lecturer"=>2, "Professor"=>7}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>6, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>23, "Philosophy"=>5, "Arts and Humanities"=>1, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>1, "Computer Science"=>6, "Decision Sciences"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2, "Engineering"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>1, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Mathematics"=>2, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>6, "Neuroscience"=>1, "Sports and Recreations"=>1, "Physics and Astronomy"=>5, "Psychology"=>34, "Social Sciences"=>8}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>6}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>8}, "Decision Sciences"=>{"Decision Sciences"=>1}, "Sports and Recreations"=>{"Sports and Recreations"=>1}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>5}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>34}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>2}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>6}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>1}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>1}, "Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Neuroscience"=>{"Neuroscience"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>23}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>6}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>1}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Philosophy"=>{"Philosophy"=>5}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Canada"=>3, "Hungary"=>1, "Norway"=>1, "United States"=>4, "Uruguay"=>1, "Luxembourg"=>1, "Brazil"=>2, "Denmark"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>3, "South Africa"=>1, "Australia"=>1, "Germany"=>2}, "group_count"=>3}

Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2228595"], "description"=>"<p>In all three plots, tallies marked for targeted replication are shown by the shaded region. Precision is indicated in blue, sensitivity in orange, and specificity in gray. Baseline parameters set to <i>b</i> = 0.001, <i>α</i> = 0.05, <i>r</i> = 0.1, <i>r</i><sub>T</sub> = 0.5, <i>c</i><sub>N−</sub> = 0, <i>c</i><sub>R−</sub> = <i>c</i><sub>R+</sub> = 1. Dashed curves display steady-state without targeted replication, <i>r</i><sub>T</sub> = 0. (a) High power setting, 1 − <i>β</i> = 0.8. (b) Low power setting, 1 − <i>β</i> = 0.6. (c) Low power, 1 − <i>β</i> = 0.6, and including tally <i>s</i> = 0 in the target.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["publication bias", "research", "model", "replication"], "article_id"=>1523697, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Richard McElreath", "Paul E. Smaldino"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136088.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Targeted_replication_effort_/1523697", "title"=>"Targeted replication effort.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-08-26 04:13:54"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2228598"], "description"=>"<p>Precision is indicated in blue, sensitivity in orange, and specificity in gray. (a) Low power initial studies (1 − <i>β</i> = 0.6, <i>α</i> = 0.2) but high power replications (1 − <i>β</i><sub>R</sub> = 0.8, <i>α</i><sub>R</sub> = 0.05). (b) High power initial studies (1 − <i>β</i> = 0.8, <i>α</i> = 0.05) but low power replications (1 − <i>β</i><sub>R</sub> = 0.5, <i>α</i><sub>R</sub> = 0.05). (c) and (d) as in (a) and (b), respectively, but only 10% of negative replications are communicated.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["publication bias", "research", "model", "replication"], "article_id"=>1523700, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Richard McElreath", "Paul E. Smaldino"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136088.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Differential_power_and_replication_dynamics_/1523700", "title"=>"Differential power and replication dynamics.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-08-26 04:13:54"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2228599", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2228600"], "description"=>"<div><p>Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005), and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts—suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["publication bias", "research", "model", "replication"], "article_id"=>1523702, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Richard McElreath", "Paul E. Smaldino"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136088.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136088.s002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>2, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Replication_Communication_and_the_Population_Dynamics_of_Scientific_Discovery_/1523702", "title"=>"Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2015-08-26 04:13:54"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2228589"], "description"=>"<p>Population dynamics of replication.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["publication bias", "research", "model", "replication"], "article_id"=>1523691, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Richard McElreath", "Paul E. Smaldino"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136088.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Population_dynamics_of_replication_/1523691", "title"=>"Population dynamics of replication.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-08-26 04:13:54"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2228590"], "description"=>"<p>The two clusters illustrate difference scenarios. The blue trends, each labeled with its tally value, show precision as it varies by the parameter on each horizontal axis. The numbers indicate the tally of a curve. Dashed curves are tallies of an even number. The vertical hairlines show the parameter values held constant across panels within the same cluster.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["publication bias", "research", "model", "replication"], "article_id"=>1523692, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Richard McElreath", "Paul E. Smaldino"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136088.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Effects_of_base_rate_replication_power_false_positives_and_communication_on_the_probability_that_an_hypothesis_with_a_given_tally_is_true_/1523692", "title"=>"Effects of base rate, replication, power, false-positives, and communication on the probability that an hypothesis with a given tally is true.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-08-26 04:13:54"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2228591"], "description"=>"<p>Precision is indicated in blue, sensitivity in orange, and specificity in gray.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["publication bias", "research", "model", "replication"], "article_id"=>1523693, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Richard McElreath", "Paul E. Smaldino"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136088.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Replication_and_communication_as_epistemological_chromatography_/1523693", "title"=>"Replication and communication as epistemological chromatography.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-08-26 04:13:54"}

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Relative Metric

{"start_date"=>"2015-01-01T00:00:00Z", "end_date"=>"2015-12-31T00:00:00Z", "subject_areas"=>[]}
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