Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?
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{"title"=>"Can ingestion of lead shot and poisons change population trends of three European birds: Grey partridge, common buzzard, and red kite?", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Carolyn B.", "last_name"=>"Meyer", "scopus_author_id"=>"57199135548"}, {"first_name"=>"Joseph S.", "last_name"=>"Meyer", "scopus_author_id"=>"7406097290"}, {"first_name"=>"Alex B.", "last_name"=>"Francisco", "scopus_author_id"=>"57117490100"}, {"first_name"=>"Jennifer", "last_name"=>"Holder", "scopus_author_id"=>"57117382300"}, {"first_name"=>"Frederik", "last_name"=>"Verdonck", "scopus_author_id"=>"8733473300"}], "year"=>2016, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"pmid"=>"26799815", "issn"=>"19326203", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84958225413", "pui"=>"608240753", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0147189", "sgr"=>"84958225413"}, "id"=>"c72a6f57-9660-317f-b12c-faa160173731", "abstract"=>"Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus).We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4–16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4–46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied popula- tions after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buz- zards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined wasmuch smaller (?1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however,modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed on carrion.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/ingestion-lead-shot-poisons-change-population-trends-three-european-birds-grey-partridge-common-buzz", "reader_count"=>24, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Librarian"=>1, "Researcher"=>5, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>3, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>6, "Other"=>2, "Student > Bachelor"=>3, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Librarian"=>1, "Researcher"=>5, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>3, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>6, "Other"=>2, "Student > Bachelor"=>3, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Environmental Science"=>9, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>10, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>1, "Psychology"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>1}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>10}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>2}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>9}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Poland"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>2, "Germany"=>1}, "group_count"=>2}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2631503"], "description"=>"<p>One typical stochastic-predicted trajectory is also included to show the variation being modeled. The three observed trajectories are from Reif et al. [<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189#pone.0147189.ref042\" target=\"_blank\">42</a>], Schreiber et al. [<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189#pone.0147189.ref043\" target=\"_blank\">43</a>], and Krüger and Lindström [<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189#pone.0147189.ref046\" target=\"_blank\">46</a>].</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["shot ingestion", "mortality", "Population size", "kite population", "Poisons Change Population Trends", "uk", "Lead shot ingestion"], "article_id"=>1640352, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Carolyn B. Meyer", "Joseph S. Meyer", "Alex B. Francisco", "Jennifer Holder", "Frederik Verdonck"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Comparison_of_the_baseline_model_population_trend_mean_and_its_95_confidence_limits_to_the_observed_population_trajectories_of_a_common_buzzards_and_b_red_kites_/1640352", "title"=>"Comparison of the baseline-model population trend (mean and its 95% confidence limits) to the observed population trajectories of (a) common buzzards and (b) red kites.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2016-01-28 12:39:22"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2631504"], "description"=>"<p>(a) Observed declining grey partridge population trends shown in different areas of continental Europe (I = Italy, P = Poland, F = France [<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189#pone.0147189.ref010\" target=\"_blank\">10</a>]). (b) One modeled declining partridge trajectory shown for four scenarios of the population in continental Europe fluctuating around the steady-state equilibrium population size (horizontal line) with and without ingestion of lead shot and pesticide poisons. Lower and upper bounds represent removal of ingestion of lead shot causing 4 and 7% of the mortality, respectively. Shown for comparison is the estimated higher equilibrium size (in blue) during the early 20<sup>th</sup> century (based on UK data [<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189#pone.0147189.ref010\" target=\"_blank\">10</a>]).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["shot ingestion", "mortality", "Population size", "kite population", "Poisons Change Population Trends", "uk", "Lead shot ingestion"], "article_id"=>1640353, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Carolyn B. Meyer", "Joseph S. Meyer", "Alex B. Francisco", "Jennifer Holder", "Frederik Verdonck"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Grey_partridge_observed_and_modeled_population_trends_/1640353", "title"=>"Grey partridge observed and modeled population trends.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2016-01-28 12:39:22"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2631505"], "description"=>"<p>The steady state (horizontal line) is the mean of 10,000 trajectories. Scenarios include with and without ingestion of lead shot (shown at upper-bound rate of 5% of total mortality) and bait poison (at 4% of total mortality), plus the sensitivity analysis with 5% reduction in fecundity added to mortality effects. The upper part of the example trajectory is not shown to amplify the lower part of the trajectory.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["shot ingestion", "mortality", "Population size", "kite population", "Poisons Change Population Trends", "uk", "Lead shot ingestion"], "article_id"=>1640354, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Carolyn B. Meyer", "Joseph S. Meyer", "Alex B. Francisco", "Jennifer Holder", "Frederik Verdonck"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Comparison_of_the_common_buzzard_steady_state_population_size_and_one_example_trajectory_for_four_scenarios_/1640354", "title"=>"Comparison of the common buzzard steady-state population size and one example trajectory for four scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2016-01-28 12:39:19"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2631506"], "description"=>"<p>(a) Four scenarios shown with or without lead shot ingestion or poison. (b) Sensitivity analysis shown comparing 0 and 5% reduction in fecundity. All scenarios in (b) still include lead shot and poisons affecting mortality but different fecundity effects. Low and high levels of lead shot refers to scenarios of 9% (lower bound) and 16% (upper bound) of total mortality attributable to lead shot ingestion added to the baseline condition.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["shot ingestion", "mortality", "Population size", "kite population", "Poisons Change Population Trends", "uk", "Lead shot ingestion"], "article_id"=>1640355, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Carolyn B. Meyer", "Joseph S. Meyer", "Alex B. Francisco", "Jennifer Holder", "Frederik Verdonck"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Comparison_of_red_kite_mean_population_trajectories_of_10_000_runs_for_various_scenarios_/1640355", "title"=>"Comparison of red kite mean population trajectories (of 10,000 runs) for various scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2016-01-28 12:39:22"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2631507"], "description"=>"<p>Only the upper-bound estimate is compared to baseline, representing removal of ingestion of lead shot that caused 7% of the mortality.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["shot ingestion", "mortality", "Population size", "kite population", "Poisons Change Population Trends", "uk", "Lead shot ingestion"], "article_id"=>1640356, "categories"=>["Uncategorised"], "users"=>["Carolyn B. Meyer", "Joseph S. Meyer", "Alex B. Francisco", "Jennifer Holder", "Frederik Verdonck"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189.g007", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Results_of_sensitivity_analysis_assuming_lead_shot_ingestion_additionally_reduces_fecundity_for_partridge_scenarios_in_Fig_4b_by_5_or_10_/1640356", "title"=>"Results of sensitivity analysis, assuming lead shot ingestion additionally reduces fecundity for partridge scenarios in Fig 4b by 5 or 10%.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2016-01-28 12:59:49"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2631508"], "description"=>"<p>The Netherlands and Denmark banned lead shot in 1993 and 1996, respectively (shown by arrows); and the UK did not ban lead shot (UK data are plotted on secondary axis). Data from [<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189#pone.0147189.ref061\" target=\"_blank\">61</a>–<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189#pone.0147189.ref062\" target=\"_blank\">62</a>, <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189#pone.0147189.ref065\" target=\"_blank\">65</a>].</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["shot ingestion", "mortality", "Population size", "kite population", "Poisons Change Population Trends", "uk", "Lead shot ingestion"], "article_id"=>1640357, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Carolyn B. Meyer", "Joseph S. Meyer", "Alex B. Francisco", "Jennifer Holder", "Frederik Verdonck"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189.g008", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Breeding_bird_indices_for_grey_partridge_populations_in_three_European_countries_/1640357", "title"=>"Breeding-bird indices for grey partridge populations in three European countries.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2016-01-28 12:39:18"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2631509", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2631510", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2631511"], "description"=>"<div><p>Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (<i>Perdix perdix</i>), common buzzard (<i>Buteo buteo</i>), and red kite (<i>Milvus milvus</i>). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4–16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4–46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed on carrion.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["shot ingestion", "mortality", "Population size", "kite population", "Poisons Change Population Trends", "uk", "Lead shot ingestion"], "article_id"=>1640358, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Carolyn B. Meyer", "Joseph S. Meyer", "Alex B. Francisco", "Jennifer Holder", "Frederik Verdonck"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189.s003"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Can_Ingestion_of_Lead_Shot_and_Poisons_Change_Population_Trends_of_Three_European_Birds_Grey_Partridge_Common_Buzzard_and_Red_Kite_/1640358", "title"=>"Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2016-01-28 12:39:22"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2631501"], "description"=>"<p>Direct reported causes are proximal causes of death and represent lower-bound estimates of contribution of ingestion of lead shot and poison to mortality in selected study areas used in the modeling exercise (a, left panel). Possible ultimate causes by lead shot or poisoning (see text) were added to the reported percentages to represent upper-bound estimates (b, right panel).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["shot ingestion", "mortality", "Population size", "kite population", "Poisons Change Population Trends", "uk", "Lead shot ingestion"], "article_id"=>1640350, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Carolyn B. Meyer", "Joseph S. Meyer", "Alex B. Francisco", "Jennifer Holder", "Frederik Verdonck"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Estimated_percentages_of_mortality_attributable_to_various_causes_n_number_of_birds_10_20_23_25_/1640350", "title"=>"Estimated percentages of mortality attributable to various causes (n = number of birds) [10, 20–23, 25].", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2016-01-28 12:39:18"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2631502"], "description"=>"<p>r = lnλ, where λ is the annual population growth factor. This relationship is represented by the theta-logistic equation re-written to calculate the population growth rate as r = r<sub>max</sub>(1 –(N/K)<sup>θ</sup>), where N = population size, K = carrying capacity of 1750, r<sub>max</sub> = r at N = 0. The θ of the curve is 4.45. This high θ indicates r does not decrease much until density is close to K, the steady-state population size (i.e., where the curve crosses the r = 0 line).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["shot ingestion", "mortality", "Population size", "kite population", "Poisons Change Population Trends", "uk", "Lead shot ingestion"], "article_id"=>1640351, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Carolyn B. Meyer", "Joseph S. Meyer", "Alex B. Francisco", "Jennifer Holder", "Frederik Verdonck"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147189.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relationship_between_per_capita_growth_rate_r_and_number_of_common_buzzard_breeding_pairs_in_Finland_study_area_42_/1640351", "title"=>"Relationship between per capita growth rate, r, and number of common buzzard breeding pairs in Finland study area [42].", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2016-01-28 12:39:19"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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Relative Metric

{"start_date"=>"2016-01-01T00:00:00Z", "end_date"=>"2016-12-31T00:00:00Z", "subject_areas"=>[]}
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