Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development
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{"title"=>"Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Liam", "last_name"=>"Wagner"}, {"first_name"=>"Ian", "last_name"=>"Ross"}, {"first_name"=>"John", "last_name"=>"Foster"}, {"first_name"=>"Ben", "last_name"=>"Hankamer"}], "year"=>2016, "source"=>"PLOS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"1932-6203", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0149406", "pmid"=>"26959977"}, "id"=>"273761b1-8bfa-3e2e-8c73-9233e3e6a9e5", "abstract"=>"The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C’ and to ‘aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C’. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometricmodel (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy sys- tems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandatedCO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the inter- national ‘pro-growth’ strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up ofCO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reduc- ing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic develop- ment and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve ‘sustainable development’ goals.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/trading-global-fuel-supply-co2-emissions-sustainable-development", "reader_count"=>46, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Researcher"=>3, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>12, "Other"=>6, "Student > Master"=>10, "Student > Bachelor"=>6, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>2}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Researcher"=>3, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>12, "Other"=>6, "Student > Master"=>10, "Student > Bachelor"=>6, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Engineering"=>11, "Unspecified"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>11, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>5, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>4, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>1, "Arts and Humanities"=>1, "Chemistry"=>2, "Social Sciences"=>5, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>4, "Energy"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>11}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>1}, "Chemistry"=>{"Chemistry"=>2}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>5}, "Energy"=>{"Energy"=>1}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>4}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>4}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>5}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>1}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>11}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>1, "Australia"=>1}, "group_count"=>1}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4826476"], "description"=>"<div><p>The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C’ and to ‘aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C’. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0149406#pone.0149406.e001\" target=\"_blank\">Eq 1</a>) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO<sub>2</sub> emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international ‘pro-growth’ strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO<sub>2</sub> neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve ‘sustainable development’ goals.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["CO 2 Emissions", "BP", "energy demand growth", "United Nations Conference", "energy demand", "CO 2 emissions", "UN", "CO 2 emission controls", "energy security implications", "GDP", "International Energy Agency", "energy systems", "Global Fuel Supply", "poverty alleviation targets"], "article_id"=>3104944, "categories"=>["Molecular Biology", "Evolutionary Biology", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Developmental Biology", "Science Policy", "Computational Biology"], "users"=>["Liam Wagner", "Ian Ross", "John Foster", "Ben Hankamer"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149406", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>28, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Trading_Off_Global_Fuel_Supply_CO_sub_2_sub_Emissions_and_Sustainable_Development/3104944", "title"=>"Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions and Sustainable Development", "pos_in_sequence"=>1, "defined_type"=>6, "published_date"=>"2016-03-09 08:30:25"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4826518"], "description"=>"<p>Historical data and forecasts (to the right of the dotted lines) are shown for relative change in energy use in ZJ GDP<sup>-1</sup> (A), and ZJ person<sup>-1</sup> (B) for a range of scenarios.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["CO 2 Emissions", "BP", "energy demand growth", "United Nations Conference", "energy demand", "CO 2 emissions", "UN", "CO 2 emission controls", "energy security implications", "GDP", "International Energy Agency", "energy systems", "Global Fuel Supply", "poverty alleviation targets"], "article_id"=>3104977, "categories"=>["Molecular Biology", "Evolutionary Biology", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Developmental Biology", "Science Policy", "Computational Biology"], "users"=>["Liam Wagner", "Ian Ross", "John Foster", "Ben Hankamer"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149406.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Trading_Off_Global_Fuel_Supply_CO_sub_2_sub_Emissions_and_Sustainable_Development_Fig_2/3104977", "title"=>"Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions and Sustainable Development - Fig 2", "pos_in_sequence"=>3, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2016-03-09 08:30:25"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4826533"], "description"=>"<p>Fossil fuel depletion model: (A) Modelling of the depletion of Safely Extractable Reserves (SER) to meet 1.5 (yellow: 480GtC), 2(mid yellow: 570GtC) and 3°C (orange: 609GtC) global warming targets proposed in [<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0149406#pone.0149406.ref044\" target=\"_blank\">44</a>–<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0149406#pone.0149406.ref046\" target=\"_blank\">46</a>], 1P reserves (red) and URRs (blue) at the historical energy savings rate of 0.61% yr-1 and (B) the 1.41% yr-1 Blue map target using <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0149406#pone.0149406.e001\" target=\"_blank\">Eq 1</a>. Fuel depletion trajectories are shown at economic growth rates of 2.5%, 3.5% and 5.9% based on the +/- 1 SD historical rate range (<a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0149406#pone.0149406.g001\" target=\"_blank\">Fig 1C</a>). ‘Extr’ extrapolates the 1950–2010 energy use rate. The pin markers indicate the corresponding depletion dates based on IEA methodology. (C) Models the effect of increasing renewable energy contribution from the current 18.2% level up to 80% in URRs (red), IP reserves (blue).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["CO 2 Emissions", "BP", "energy demand growth", "United Nations Conference", "energy demand", "CO 2 emissions", "UN", "CO 2 emission controls", "energy security implications", "GDP", "International Energy Agency", "energy systems", "Global Fuel Supply", "poverty alleviation targets"], "article_id"=>3104986, "categories"=>["Molecular Biology", "Evolutionary Biology", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Developmental Biology", "Science Policy", "Computational Biology"], "users"=>["Liam Wagner", "Ian Ross", "John Foster", "Ben Hankamer"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149406.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Trading_Off_Global_Fuel_Supply_CO_sub_2_sub_Emissions_and_Sustainable_Development_Fig_3/3104986", "title"=>"Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions and Sustainable Development - Fig 3", "pos_in_sequence"=>4, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2016-03-09 08:30:25"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/4826494"], "description"=>"<p>Energy use model: (A) Energy growth predictions compared with historical energy use data. (B) Historical energy use change in ZJ person<sup>-1</sup> (Individual energy use) and ZJ GDP<sup>-1</sup> (Economy-wide energy use). (C) Historical economic growth rates.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["CO 2 Emissions", "BP", "energy demand growth", "United Nations Conference", "energy demand", "CO 2 emissions", "UN", "CO 2 emission controls", "energy security implications", "GDP", "International Energy Agency", "energy systems", "Global Fuel Supply", "poverty alleviation targets"], "article_id"=>3104959, "categories"=>["Molecular Biology", "Evolutionary Biology", "Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified", "Ecology", "Developmental Biology", "Science Policy", "Computational Biology"], "users"=>["Liam Wagner", "Ian Ross", "John Foster", "Ben Hankamer"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149406.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Trading_Off_Global_Fuel_Supply_CO_sub_2_sub_Emissions_and_Sustainable_Development_Fig_1/3104959", "title"=>"Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions and Sustainable Development - Fig 1", "pos_in_sequence"=>2, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2016-03-09 08:30:25"}

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Relative Metric

{"start_date"=>"2016-01-01T00:00:00Z", "end_date"=>"2016-12-31T00:00:00Z", "subject_areas"=>[]}
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