Climate Change and Maize Yield in Iowa
Publication Date
May 24, 2016
Journal
PLOS ONE
Authors
Hong Xu, Tracy E. Twine & Evan Girvetz
Volume
11
Issue
5
Pages
e0156083
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0156083
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0156083
Web of Science
000376880700039
Scopus
84971571472
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/climate-change-maize-yield-iowa
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Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"Climate Change and Maize Yield in Iowa", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Hong", "last_name"=>"Xu", "scopus_author_id"=>"55366120900"}, {"first_name"=>"Tracy E.", "last_name"=>"Twine", "scopus_author_id"=>"6507369863"}, {"first_name"=>"Evan", "last_name"=>"Girvetz", "scopus_author_id"=>"8725138300"}], "year"=>2016, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84971571472", "sgr"=>"84971571472", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0156083", "pui"=>"610515999", "pmid"=>"27219116", "isbn"=>"03784290 (ISSN)", "issn"=>"19326203"}, "id"=>"e3cee112-ec50-3238-a6ca-962a2add42b2", "abstract"=>"Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21 st century as compared with late 20 th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model with output from six cli-mate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20 th century to middle and late 21 st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest cli-mate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10–20% by the end of the 21 st century.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/climate-change-maize-yield-iowa", "reader_count"=>41, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Researcher"=>8, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>4, "Student > Postgraduate"=>3, "Student > Master"=>5, "Other"=>3, "Student > Bachelor"=>5, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>2}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>4, "Researcher"=>8, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>2, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>4, "Student > Postgraduate"=>3, "Student > Master"=>5, "Other"=>3, "Student > Bachelor"=>5, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Engineering"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>9, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>14, "Design"=>1, "Computer Science"=>2, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>7, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Design"=>{"Design"=>1}, "Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>7}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>14}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>2}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>4}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>9}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Brazil"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>1, "South Africa"=>1}, "group_count"=>6}

Scopus | Further Information

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