Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks
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{"title"=>"Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Seth", "last_name"=>"Blumberg", "scopus_author_id"=>"9639027000"}, {"first_name"=>"Sebastian", "last_name"=>"Funk", "scopus_author_id"=>"26634997200"}, {"first_name"=>"Juliet R.C.", "last_name"=>"Pulliam", "scopus_author_id"=>"8756780800"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS Pathogens", "identifiers"=>{"scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84908340246", "sgr"=>"84908340246", "issn"=>"15537374", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452", "pmid"=>"25356657", "isbn"=>"1553-7366", "pui"=>"600310986"}, "id"=>"1a105ed0-3d34-3e99-a195-3bda36c9caac", "abstract"=>"Our ability to respond appropriately to infectious diseases is enhanced by identifying differences in the potential for transmitting infection between individuals. Here, we identify epidemiological traits of self-limited infections (i.e. infections with an effective reproduction number satisfying [0 < R eff < 1) that correlate with transmissibility. Our analysis is based on a branching process model that permits statistical comparison of both the strength and heterogeneity of transmission for two distinct types of cases. Our approach provides insight into a variety of scenarios, including the transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Arabian peninsula, measles in North America, pre-eradication smallpox in Europe, and human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. When applied to chain size data for MERS-CoV transmission before 2014, our method indicates that despite an apparent trend towards improved control, there is not enough statistical evidence to indicate that R eff has declined with time. Meanwhile, chain size data for measles in the United States and Canada reveal statistically significant geographic variation in R eff, suggesting that the timing and coverage of national vaccination programs, as well as contact tracing procedures, may shape the size distribution of observed infection clusters. Infection source data for smallpox suggests that primary cases transmitted more than secondary cases, and provides a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of control interventions. Human monkeypox, on the other hand, does not show evidence of differential transmission between animals in contact with humans, primary cases, or secondary cases, which assuages the concern that social mixing can amplify transmission by secondary cases. Lastly, we evaluate surveillance requirements for detecting a change in the human-to-human transmission of monkeypox since the cessation of cross-protective smallpox vaccination. Our studies lay the foundation for future investigations regarding how infection source, vaccination status or other putative transmissibility traits may affect self-limited transmission.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/detecting-differential-transmissibilities-affect-size-selflimited-outbreaks", "reader_count"=>43, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>3, "Researcher"=>11, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>7, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>11, "Student > Bachelor"=>4, "Lecturer"=>3, "Professor"=>1, "Unspecified"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>3, "Researcher"=>11, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>7, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>11, "Student > Bachelor"=>4, "Lecturer"=>3, "Professor"=>1, "Unspecified"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Engineering"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>2, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>2, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>1, "Mathematics"=>5, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>16, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>7, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>1, "Physics and Astronomy"=>1, "Psychology"=>2, "Social Sciences"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>16}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>1}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>1}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>2}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>7}, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>{"Nursing and Health Professions"=>1}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>2}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>5}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>4}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>2}, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>{"Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>1, "Brazil"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>2, "Switzerland"=>1}, "group_count"=>2}

Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773078"], "description"=>"<p>The dashed lines distinguish the models according the assumptions that are made about whether and the dispersion parameter are the same or different for the two populations. The axis on the right indicates the number of parameters used in each model. This is the sum of the number of parameters used to model (either 1 or 2) and the number of parameters used to model dispersion (either 0, 1 or 2).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["transmissibility traits", "surveillance requirements", "show evidence", "Infection source data", "Democratic Republic", "infection clusters", "Differential Transmissibilities", "future investigations", "infection source", "size distribution", "vaccination status", "control interventions", "Arabian peninsula", "reproduction number", "United States", "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus", "vaccination programs", "smallpox", "Process Model", "chain size data", "Human monkeypox"], "article_id"=>1223864, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Seth Blumberg", "Sebastian Funk", "Juliet R. C. Pulliam"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.g001"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Six_ways_of_modeling_the_transmission_of_two_populations_whose_transmissibility_is_being_compared_/1223864", "title"=>"Six ways of modeling the transmission of two populations whose transmissibility is being compared.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-30 04:14:45"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773081"], "description"=>"<p>A) The results of estimating the effective reproduction number, , for six inter-related models of transmission are shown. The contours show the 95% confidence regions for three models that allow different values of for cases occurring before versus after June 1, 2013. The distinction is that each model makes different assumptions about the degree of transmission heterogeneity (as explained in the text). The black dot shows the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) estimate of the values for these three models. The dashed grey line indicates when does not change with time. The dashed colored lines show the MLE estimate and 95% confidence interval of for the three models that assume transmissibility of cases is independent of time. The slight displacement of the colored lines from the dashed grey line is only for visual clarity. B) The fit of our preferred model to the early MERS-CoV chain size data is shown (<a href=\"http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452#ppat-1004452-t001\" target=\"_blank\">Table 1</a>). The error bars of the data correspond to 95% confidence intervals as determined by non-parametric bootstrapping of chain sizes. C) The fit of our preferred model to the late MERS-CoV chain size data is shown.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["transmissibility traits", "surveillance requirements", "show evidence", "Infection source data", "Democratic Republic", "infection clusters", "Differential Transmissibilities", "future investigations", "infection source", "size distribution", "vaccination status", "control interventions", "Arabian peninsula", "reproduction number", "United States", "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus", "vaccination programs", "smallpox", "Process Model", "chain size data", "Human monkeypox"], "article_id"=>1223867, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Seth Blumberg", "Sebastian Funk", "Juliet R. C. Pulliam"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.g002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Assessing_temporal_variation_of_MERS_CoV_transmission_in_the_Arabian_Peninsula_before_Aug_8_2013_/1223867", "title"=>"Assessing temporal variation of MERS-CoV transmission in the Arabian Peninsula before Aug 8, 2013.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-30 04:14:45"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773086"], "description"=>"<p>The layout is analogous to <a href=\"http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452#ppat-1004452-g002\" target=\"_blank\">Figure 2</a>, except that the axes represent locations rather than time periods. Because of the ambiguity in the correct classification of an infection cluster with six cases that had two primary infections, this data point was not included in panels B and C (but it was included in the calculations for panel A, as our method accounts for all possible chains in this cluster).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["transmissibility traits", "surveillance requirements", "show evidence", "Infection source data", "Democratic Republic", "infection clusters", "Differential Transmissibilities", "future investigations", "infection source", "size distribution", "vaccination status", "control interventions", "Arabian peninsula", "reproduction number", "United States", "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus", "vaccination programs", "smallpox", "Process Model", "chain size data", "Human monkeypox"], "article_id"=>1223872, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Seth Blumberg", "Sebastian Funk", "Juliet R. C. Pulliam"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.g003"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Comparing_the_transmissibility_of_measles_in_the_United_States_1997_8211_1999_and_Canada_1998_8211_2001_/1223872", "title"=>"Comparing the transmissibility of measles in the United States (1997–1999) and Canada (1998–2001).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-30 04:14:45"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773087"], "description"=>"<p>The layout is analogous to <a href=\"http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452#ppat-1004452-g002\" target=\"_blank\">Figure 2</a> except the axes distinguish between transmission of primary and secondary cases. The inset of panel A replicates the results when and are inferred separately (our preferred model), except that the y-axis is now the ratio of to . For panels B and C, the data is shown only for cases where there was a clear record of subsequent secondary infections (as opposed to knowing that four cases lead to ten secondary cases in aggregate). The 95% confidence intervals were found by parametric bootstrap on this more limited data set.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["transmissibility traits", "surveillance requirements", "show evidence", "Infection source data", "Democratic Republic", "infection clusters", "Differential Transmissibilities", "future investigations", "infection source", "size distribution", "vaccination status", "control interventions", "Arabian peninsula", "reproduction number", "United States", "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus", "vaccination programs", "smallpox", "Process Model", "chain size data", "Human monkeypox"], "article_id"=>1223873, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Seth Blumberg", "Sebastian Funk", "Juliet R. C. Pulliam"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.g004"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Comparing_the_transmissibility_of_primary_and_secondary_cases_for_smallpox_in_Europe_1958_8211_1973_/1223873", "title"=>"Comparing the transmissibility of primary and secondary cases for smallpox in Europe, 1958–1973.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-30 04:14:45"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773091"], "description"=>"<p>The layout is analogous to <a href=\"http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452#ppat-1004452-g004\" target=\"_blank\">Figure 4</a>, except that the random network model has been added. The dotted line in panel A shows the relationship between for primary and secondary infections in the random network model profiled on . The red curve shows the 95% confidence interval for inference with the random network model. The data shown in panels B and C are limited to instances where the transmission links could be unambiguously counted.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["transmissibility traits", "surveillance requirements", "show evidence", "Infection source data", "Democratic Republic", "infection clusters", "Differential Transmissibilities", "future investigations", "infection source", "size distribution", "vaccination status", "control interventions", "Arabian peninsula", "reproduction number", "United States", "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus", "vaccination programs", "smallpox", "Process Model", "chain size data", "Human monkeypox"], "article_id"=>1223875, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Seth Blumberg", "Sebastian Funk", "Juliet R. C. Pulliam"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.g005"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Comparing_the_transmissibility_of_primary_and_secondary_cases_for_human_monkeypox_in_the_Democratic_Republic_of_Congo_1981_8211_1984_/1223875", "title"=>"Comparing the transmissibility of primary and secondary cases for human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 1981–1984.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-30 04:14:45"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773092"], "description"=>"<p>The layout is analogous to <a href=\"http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452#ppat-1004452-g005\" target=\"_blank\">Figure 5</a>, but now the axes distinguish between animal and human transmission of monkeypox. The data shown in panel C is limited to instances where the transmission links could be unambiguously counted.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["transmissibility traits", "surveillance requirements", "show evidence", "Infection source data", "Democratic Republic", "infection clusters", "Differential Transmissibilities", "future investigations", "infection source", "size distribution", "vaccination status", "control interventions", "Arabian peninsula", "reproduction number", "United States", "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus", "vaccination programs", "smallpox", "Process Model", "chain size data", "Human monkeypox"], "article_id"=>1223876, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Seth Blumberg", "Sebastian Funk", "Juliet R. C. Pulliam"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.g006"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Comparing_animal_to_human_and_human_to_human_transmissibility_for_human_monkeypox_in_the_Democratic_Republic_of_Congo_1981_8211_1984_/1223876", "title"=>"Comparing animal-to-human and human-to-human transmissibility for human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 1981–1984.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-30 04:14:45"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773093"], "description"=>"<p>A) Number of observed chains of transmission for monkeypox needed to detect a change in relative to 1980–1984. The 1980–1984 monkeypox data (, ) are compared against a set of simulations with and , with specified on the x-axis. This procedure was repeated 1000 times for each value of the number of simulated chains, (as specified by the y-axis). For each value of , the blue lines indicate the lowest number of observations for which a given power (as a proportion of the 1000 simulations) was achieved. The shades of blue (see legend) indicate different levels of power for which this was done. The straight red line corresponds to the mean number of chains that would have been observed for the 760 case detected during the 2005–2007 monkeypox surveillance <a href=\"http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452#ppat.1004452-Rimoin1\" target=\"_blank\">[56]</a> for different values of . This line corresponds to chains (since the average chain size is <a href=\"http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452#ppat.1004452-Blumberg2\" target=\"_blank\">[20]</a>). B) The power of the 2005–2007 monkeypox surveillance data to detect a change in for monkeypox. The black dots are the results of simulations, the blue line is a smooth fit to these. This panel corresponds to a cross-section of the figure in panel A along the red line.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["transmissibility traits", "surveillance requirements", "show evidence", "Infection source data", "Democratic Republic", "infection clusters", "Differential Transmissibilities", "future investigations", "infection source", "size distribution", "vaccination status", "control interventions", "Arabian peninsula", "reproduction number", "United States", "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus", "vaccination programs", "smallpox", "Process Model", "chain size data", "Human monkeypox"], "article_id"=>1223877, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Seth Blumberg", "Sebastian Funk", "Juliet R. C. Pulliam"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.g007"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Power_to_detect_a_change_in_for_human_monkeypox_following_smallpox_eradication_/1223877", "title"=>"Power to detect a change in for human monkeypox following smallpox eradication.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-10-30 04:14:45"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773094"], "description"=>"<p>Maximum likelihood parameters, log-likelihood scores and AIC values are shown for the various inference methods described in the text. and corresponds to transmission before and after June 1, 2013, respectively. The left column identifies the method by indicating the parameter constraints used. The model with is chosen as the reference point for the calculations since it has the best overall AIC score. Although this model has the best score, it assumes two different values of . Erring on the side of requiring 95% confidence to distinguish values, our method does not indicate that there is enough statistical support for using two different values of because the score of the model is less than two. Thus the is our preferred model (indicated by the bold cell). There were a total of 81 early cases among 21 chains and a total of 28 late cases among 19 chains.</p><p>Inference results for assessing temporal variation of MERS-CoV transmission in the Arabian Peninsula before Aug 8, 2013.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["transmissibility traits", "surveillance requirements", "show evidence", "Infection source data", "Democratic Republic", "infection clusters", "Differential Transmissibilities", "future investigations", "infection source", "size distribution", "vaccination status", "control interventions", "Arabian peninsula", "reproduction number", "United States", "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus", "vaccination programs", "smallpox", "Process Model", "chain size data", "Human monkeypox"], "article_id"=>1223878, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Seth Blumberg", "Sebastian Funk", "Juliet R. C. Pulliam"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.t001"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Inference_results_for_assessing_temporal_variation_of_MERS_CoV_transmission_in_the_Arabian_Peninsula_before_Aug_8_2013_/1223878", "title"=>"Inference results for assessing temporal variation of MERS-CoV transmission in the Arabian Peninsula before Aug 8, 2013.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-10-30 04:14:45"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773095"], "description"=>"<p>The layout is analogous to <a href=\"http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452#ppat-1004452-t001\" target=\"_blank\">Table 1</a>. Although the ‘None’ model, has a within two (i.e. our chosen threshold for statistical significance) of the best model, our analysis still suggests that is statistically different for the United States and Canada, because both of these models have distinct values for the two countries. Thus the model (bold cell) is our preferred model. There were a total of 336 cases in the United States among 166 chains and a total of 274 cases in Canada among 49 chains.</p><p>Inference results for comparing the transmissibility of measles in the United States (1997–1999) and Canada (1998–2001).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["transmissibility traits", "surveillance requirements", "show evidence", "Infection source data", "Democratic Republic", "infection clusters", "Differential Transmissibilities", "future investigations", "infection source", "size distribution", "vaccination status", "control interventions", "Arabian peninsula", "reproduction number", "United States", "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus", "vaccination programs", "smallpox", "Process Model", "chain size data", "Human monkeypox"], "article_id"=>1223879, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Seth Blumberg", "Sebastian Funk", "Juliet R. C. Pulliam"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.t002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Inference_results_for_comparing_the_transmissibility_of_measles_in_the_United_States_1997_8211_1999_and_Canada_1998_8211_2001_/1223879", "title"=>"Inference results for comparing the transmissibility of measles in the United States (1997–1999) and Canada (1998–2001).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-10-30 04:14:45"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773096"], "description"=>"<p>The layout is analogous to <a href=\"http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452#ppat-1004452-t001\" target=\"_blank\">Table 1</a>. There were a total of 36 primary cases and 537 secondary cases.</p><p>Inference results for comparing the transmissibility of primary and secondary cases for smallpox in Europe, 1958–1973.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["transmissibility traits", "surveillance requirements", "show evidence", "Infection source data", "Democratic Republic", "infection clusters", "Differential Transmissibilities", "future investigations", "infection source", "size distribution", "vaccination status", "control interventions", "Arabian peninsula", "reproduction number", "United States", "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus", "vaccination programs", "smallpox", "Process Model", "chain size data", "Human monkeypox"], "article_id"=>1223880, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Seth Blumberg", "Sebastian Funk", "Juliet R. C. Pulliam"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.t003"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Inference_results_for_comparing_the_transmissibility_of_primary_and_secondary_cases_for_smallpox_in_Europe_1958_8211_1973_/1223880", "title"=>"Inference results for comparing the transmissibility of primary and secondary cases for smallpox in Europe, 1958–1973.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-10-30 04:14:45"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773097"], "description"=>"<p>The layout is analogous to <a href=\"http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452#ppat-1004452-t001\" target=\"_blank\">Table 1</a>, except that the random network model is added. There were a total of 147 primary cases and 62 secondary cases.</p><p>Inference results for comparing the transmissibility of primary and secondary cases for human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 1981–1984.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["transmissibility traits", "surveillance requirements", "show evidence", "Infection source data", "Democratic Republic", "infection clusters", "Differential Transmissibilities", "future investigations", "infection source", "size distribution", "vaccination status", "control interventions", "Arabian peninsula", "reproduction number", "United States", "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus", "vaccination programs", "smallpox", "Process Model", "chain size data", "Human monkeypox"], "article_id"=>1223881, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Seth Blumberg", "Sebastian Funk", "Juliet R. C. Pulliam"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.t004"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Inference_results_for_comparing_the_transmissibility_of_primary_and_secondary_cases_for_human_monkeypox_in_the_Democratic_Republic_of_Congo_1981_8211_1984_/1223881", "title"=>"Inference results for comparing the transmissibility of primary and secondary cases for human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 1981–1984.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-10-30 04:14:45"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773098"], "description"=>"<p>The layout is analogous to <a href=\"http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452#ppat-1004452-t001\" target=\"_blank\">Table 1</a>. The model was the preferred model since is within two of the model with the best value, indicating there is not sufficient statistical support for distinct reproduction numbers. There were a total of 125 animal exposures leading to at least one primary case and 209 human cases. Despite the size of the data set, the values are all quite small because there are large confidence intervals associated with the use of a truncated negative binomial distribution for inference <a href=\"http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452#ppat.1004452-Blumberg1\" target=\"_blank\">[19]</a>.</p><p>Inference results for comparing animal-to-human and human-to-human transmissibility for human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 1981–1984.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["transmissibility traits", "surveillance requirements", "show evidence", "Infection source data", "Democratic Republic", "infection clusters", "Differential Transmissibilities", "future investigations", "infection source", "size distribution", "vaccination status", "control interventions", "Arabian peninsula", "reproduction number", "United States", "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus", "vaccination programs", "smallpox", "Process Model", "chain size data", "Human monkeypox"], "article_id"=>1223882, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Seth Blumberg", "Sebastian Funk", "Juliet R. C. Pulliam"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.t005"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Inference_results_for_comparing_animal_to_human_and_human_to_human_transmissibility_for_human_monkeypox_in_the_Democratic_Republic_of_Congo_1981_8211_1984_/1223882", "title"=>"Inference results for comparing animal-to-human and human-to-human transmissibility for human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 1981–1984.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2014-10-30 04:14:45"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773099", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1773100"], "description"=>"<div><p>Our ability to respond appropriately to infectious diseases is enhanced by identifying differences in the potential for transmitting infection between individuals. Here, we identify epidemiological traits of self-limited infections (i.e. infections with an effective reproduction number satisfying ) that correlate with transmissibility. Our analysis is based on a branching process model that permits statistical comparison of both the strength and heterogeneity of transmission for two distinct types of cases. Our approach provides insight into a variety of scenarios, including the transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Arabian peninsula, measles in North America, pre-eradication smallpox in Europe, and human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. When applied to chain size data for MERS-CoV transmission before 2014, our method indicates that despite an apparent trend towards improved control, there is not enough statistical evidence to indicate that has declined with time. Meanwhile, chain size data for measles in the United States and Canada reveal statistically significant geographic variation in , suggesting that the timing and coverage of national vaccination programs, as well as contact tracing procedures, may shape the size distribution of observed infection clusters. Infection source data for smallpox suggests that primary cases transmitted more than secondary cases, and provides a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of control interventions. Human monkeypox, on the other hand, does not show evidence of differential transmission between animals in contact with humans, primary cases, or secondary cases, which assuages the concern that social mixing can amplify transmission by secondary cases. Lastly, we evaluate surveillance requirements for detecting a change in the human-to-human transmission of monkeypox since the cessation of cross-protective smallpox vaccination. Our studies lay the foundation for future investigations regarding how infection source, vaccination status or other putative transmissibility traits may affect self-limited transmission.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["transmissibility traits", "surveillance requirements", "show evidence", "Infection source data", "Democratic Republic", "infection clusters", "Differential Transmissibilities", "future investigations", "infection source", "size distribution", "vaccination status", "control interventions", "Arabian peninsula", "reproduction number", "United States", "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus", "vaccination programs", "smallpox", "Process Model", "chain size data", "Human monkeypox"], "article_id"=>1223883, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Seth Blumberg", "Sebastian Funk", "Juliet R. C. Pulliam"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452.s002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Detecting_Differential_Transmissibilities_That_Affect_the_Size_of_Self_Limited_Outbreaks_/1223883", "title"=>"Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2014-10-30 04:14:45"}

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Relative Metric

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