CiteULike | Further Information

• {"link"=>{"url"=>"http://www.citeulike.org/user/apurbana/article/8050305"}, "post_time"=>"2012-08-24 18:21:22", "tag"=>["network", "relevant2"], "linkout"=>[{"type"=>"DOI", "url"=>"http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013"}, {"type"=>"Pubmed Central", "url"=>"http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1779816/"}, {"type"=>"Pubmed", "url"=>"http://view.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17253899"}, {"type"=>"Hubmed", "url"=>"http://www.hubmed.org/display.cgi?uids=17253899"}], "username"=>"apurbana", "article_id"=>"8050305"}
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• {"link"=>{"url"=>"http://www.citeulike.org/user/slycett_hxnx/article/8050305"}, "post_time"=>"2014-04-14 10:05:33", "tag"=>["influenza", "networks"], "linkout"=>[{"type"=>"DOI", "url"=>"http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013"}, {"type"=>"Pubmed Central", "url"=>"http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1779816/"}, {"type"=>"Pubmed", "url"=>"http://view.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17253899"}, {"type"=>"Hubmed", "url"=>"http://www.hubmed.org/display.cgi?uids=17253899"}], "username"=>"slycett_hxnx", "article_id"=>"8050305"}
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Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: Baseline case and containment interventions", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Vittoria", "last_name"=>"Colizza", "scopus_author_id"=>"8225873300"}, {"first_name"=>"Alain", "last_name"=>"Barrat", "scopus_author_id"=>"7003666520"}, {"first_name"=>"Marc", "last_name"=>"Barthelemy", "scopus_author_id"=>"7006253975"}, {"first_name"=>"Alain Jacques", "last_name"=>"Valleron", "scopus_author_id"=>"7004672683"}, {"first_name"=>"Alessandro", "last_name"=>"Vespignani", "scopus_author_id"=>"7004546582"}], "year"=>2007, "source"=>"PLoS Medicine", "identifiers"=>{"sgr"=>"33846670320", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013", "issn"=>"15491277", "pui"=>"46191825", "isbn"=>"1549-1277", "pmid"=>"17253899", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-33846670320", "arxiv"=>"q-bio/0701038"}, "id"=>"184df26e-da47-38e9-92a0-92b195dbba67", "abstract"=>"BACKGROUND: The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus, which is now widespread in Southeast Asia and which diffused recently in some areas of the Balkans region and Western Europe, has raised a public alert toward the potential occurrence of a new severe influenza pandemic. Here we study the worldwide spread of a pandemic and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We investigated the effect of the use of AV drugs in the event that therapeutic protocols can be carried out with maximal coverage for the populations in all countries. In view of the wide diversity of AV stockpiles in different regions of the world, we also studied scenarios in which only a limited number of countries are prepared (i.e., have considerable AV supplies). In particular, we compared different plans in which, on the one hand, only prepared and wealthy countries benefit from large AV resources, with, on the other hand, cooperative containment scenarios in which countries with large AV stockpiles make a small portion of their supplies available worldwide. CONCLUSIONS: We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20% of the population leaves 30%-50% of the population infected. In the case of limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that made part of their resources available for global use.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/modeling-worldwide-spread-pandemic-influenza-baseline-case-containment-interventions", "reader_count"=>339, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>29, "Librarian"=>2, "Researcher"=>91, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>10, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>96, "Student > Postgraduate"=>8, "Student > Master"=>46, "Other"=>10, "Student > Bachelor"=>16, "Lecturer"=>4, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>6, "Professor"=>20}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>29, "Librarian"=>2, "Researcher"=>91, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>10, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>96, "Student > Postgraduate"=>8, "Student > Master"=>46, "Other"=>10, "Student > Bachelor"=>16, "Lecturer"=>4, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>6, "Professor"=>20}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>13, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>64, "Arts and Humanities"=>1, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>7, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>4, "Chemical Engineering"=>1, "Chemistry"=>4, "Computer Science"=>50, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>1, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>7, "Engineering"=>21, "Environmental Science"=>12, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>3, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>5, "Mathematics"=>37, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>40, "Physics and Astronomy"=>39, "Psychology"=>5, "Social Sciences"=>22, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>3}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>40}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>22}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>39}, "Psychology"=>{"Psychology"=>5}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>37}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>13}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>12}, "Chemical Engineering"=>{"Chemical Engineering"=>1}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>1}, "Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>21}, "Chemistry"=>{"Chemistry"=>4}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>1}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>7}, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>{"Immunology and Microbiology"=>3}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>64}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>50}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>7}, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>{"Nursing and Health Professions"=>5}, "Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>{"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"=>3}, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>{"Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>4}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Reunion"=>1, "Colombia"=>1, "Ecuador"=>1, "Afghanistan"=>1, "United States"=>17, "Japan"=>2, "United Kingdom"=>6, "Spain"=>3, "Canada"=>2, "Sweden"=>1, "Vietnam"=>1, "Korea (South)"=>1, "Iran"=>1, "Brazil"=>2, "Poland"=>1, "Denmark"=>1, "Italy"=>2, "Mexico"=>1, "Israel"=>1, "France"=>9, "Australia"=>4, "Germany"=>4, "Estonia"=>1}, "group_count"=>33}

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• {"type"=>"COMMENT", "annotationUri"=>"info:doi/10.1371/annotation/a0b4b988-9165-408d-8764-9f788d05d656", "title"=>"Influenza's Aversion to Sunlight", "body"=>"Author: John Cannell\nPosition: Staff psychiatrist\nInstitution: Atascadero State Hospital\nE-mail: jcannell@dmhash.state.ca.us\nSubmitted Date: February 27, 2007\nPublished Date: February 28, 2007\nThis comment was originally posted as a “Reader Response” on the publication date indicated above. All Reader Responses are now available as comments.\n\nI am impressed with the video models accompanying Colizza et al’s paper. According to their models, influenza is almost completely averse to solar radiation. Hope-Simpson first pointed out this aversion, noting:\n\n“Outbreaks are globally ubiquitous and epidemic loci move smoothly to and fro across the surface of the earth almost every year in a sinuous curve that runs parallel with the midsummer curve of vertical solar radiation, but lags about six months behind it... Latitude alone broadly determines the timing of the epidemics in the annual cycle, a relationship that suggests a rather direct effect of some component of solar radiation acting positively or negatively upon the virus, the human host, or their interaction.”(1)\n\nInfluenza's aversion to sunlight is most parsimoniously explained by seasonal changes in innate immunity, especially the profound seasonality of the most immune-enhancing of the human steroid hormones, vitamin D.(2) Aloia and Li-Ng will soon confirm that theory.(3) Presenting data from a blinded interventional trial, their work will provide evidence that susceptibility to influenza is a function of vitamin D intake and that vitamin D is Hope-Simpson’s long lost “seasonal stimulus.”\n\nGeorge Bernard Shaw once said, “Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything.” While some preparedness planners will rush to provide vaccines and antivirals, some of us will reread Hope-Simpson’s classic 1992 book(4) on influenza, where he said. “Understanding the mechanism of action (of the seasonal stimulus) may be of critical value in designing prophylaxis against the disease.” (Hope Simpson, 1992, p. 235)\n\nReferences\n\n1. Hope-Simpson RE. The role of season in the epidemiology of influenza. Journal of Hygiene 1981; 86: 35-47.\n\n2. Cannell JJ, et al. Epidemic influenza and vitamin D. Epidemiology and Infection 2006; 134: 1129-1140.\n\n3. Aloia J, Li-Ng, M. Vitamin D: colds and flu. Epidemiology and Infection, in press.\n\n4. Hope-Simpson RE. The transmission of epidemic influenza. New York: Plenum Press, 1992.", "isRemoved"=>false, "created"=>"2009-03-31T00:06:24Z", "lastModified"=>"2009-03-31T00:06:24Z", "creator"=>{"userId"=>"172479"}, "highlightedText"=>"", "competingInterestStatement"=>{"creatorWasPrompted"=>true, "hasCompetingInterests"=>true, "body"=>"Dr. Cannell heads the educational organization, the Vitamin D Council."}, "parentArticle"=>{"doi"=>"info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013", "state"=>"published", "journals"=>{"PLoSMedicine"=>{"journalKey"=>"PLoSMedicine", "eIssn"=>"1549-1676", "title"=>"PLOS Medicine"}}}, "replyTreeSize"=>0, "mostRecentActivity"=>"2009-03-31T00:06:24Z", "replies"=>[]}

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• {"id"=>"472030454640435200", "text"=>"I never gave too much credit to influenza, really cool dynamics! Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: http://t.co/lrk66IAPZJ", "created_at"=>"2014-05-29T15:03:24Z", "user"=>"Javiera_av", "user_name"=>"J Alarcon-Valenzuela", "user_profile_image"=>"http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/436876206235856897/7Z7qZPa__normal.jpeg"}
• {"id"=>"940628690484056064", "text"=>"Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions https://t.co/PV8xp4Wd08", "created_at"=>"2017-12-12T17:05:30Z", "user"=>"GlobalBioD", "user_name"=>"Global Biodefense", "user_profile_image"=>"http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/460814903964475393/zj-PXfIN_normal.png"}

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Figshare

• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/953581"], "description"=>"<div><p>(A) The stockpile available in the prepared countries is shown according to the different interventions. An initial stockpile able to cover 10% of the population of prepared countries is assumed. In the uncooperative strategy (left), the totality of these resources is used exclusively for national purposes. The cooperative strategy I (center) is based on the global redistribution of one-tenth of the resources stockpiled by prepared countries, which will thus be able to count on supplies covering 9% of their own population. In the cooperative strategy II (right) the amount provided for global sharing is increased to one-fifth, with a corresponding decrease of the supplies from 10% to 8% in the prepared countries stockpiles.</p>\n <p>(B–D) Probability of observing a global outbreak after one year from the start of the pandemic in Hanoi, when AV intervention is applied within cooperative or uncooperative strategies. The assumed protocol considers a rate distribution <i>p_AV</i> = 0.5/d, whenever AV stockpiles are available. The probability of a global outbreak occurring is subdivided into four bins, according to the number of infected countries (see <a href=\"http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013#pmed-0040013-g003\" target=\"_blank\">Figure 3</a>A).</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["av", "schematic", "implemented", "containment", "strategies", "corresponding", "probability", "pandemic", "seeded", "hanoi"], "article_id"=>623874, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Vittoria Colizza", "Alain Barrat", "Marc Barthélemy", "Alain-Jacques Valleron", "Alessandro Vespignani"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.g007", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Intervention_Scenario_with_Limited_AV_Supplies_Schematic_Representation_of_the_Implemented_Containment_Strategies_and_Corresponding_Probability_of_Global_Outbreaks_for_a_Pandemic_Seeded_in_Hanoi_in_October_/623874", "title"=>"Intervention Scenario with Limited AV Supplies: Schematic Representation of the Implemented Containment Strategies and Corresponding Probability of Global Outbreaks, for a Pandemic Seeded in Hanoi in October", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 12:53:00"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/468957", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/468984", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/469008", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/469044", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/469061"], "description"=>"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus, which is now widespread in Southeast Asia and which diffused recently in some areas of the Balkans region and Western Europe, has raised a public alert toward the potential occurrence of a new severe influenza pandemic. Here we study the worldwide spread of a pandemic and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel.</p> <h3>Methods and Findings</h3><p>We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We investigated the effect of the use of AV drugs in the event that therapeutic protocols can be carried out with maximal coverage for the populations in all countries. In view of the wide diversity of AV stockpiles in different regions of the world, we also studied scenarios in which only a limited number of countries are prepared (i.e., have considerable AV supplies). In particular, we compared different plans in which, on the one hand, only prepared and wealthy countries benefit from large AV resources, with, on the other hand, cooperative containment scenarios in which countries with large AV stockpiles make a small portion of their supplies available worldwide.</p> <h3>Conclusions</h3><p>We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20% of the population leaves 30%–50% of the population infected. In the case of limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that made part of their resources available for global use.</p> </div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["modeling", "pandemic", "baseline", "containment", "interventions"], "article_id"=>152461, "categories"=>["Cancer", "Medicine", "Biotechnology"], "users"=>["Vittoria Colizza", "Alain Barrat", "Marc Barthélemy", "Alain-Jacques Valleron", "Alessandro Vespignani"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.sd001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.sv001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.sv002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.sv003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.sv004"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>38, "page_views"=>43, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Modeling_the_Worldwide_Spread_of_Pandemic_Influenza_Baseline_Case_and_Containment_Interventions/152461", "title"=>"Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2007-01-23 00:41:01"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/953287"], "description"=>"<div><p>(A) Probability of observing a global outbreak after one year from the beginning of the epidemic. In the case of outbreaks starting in April, the reproductive rate is effectively reduced to a value smaller than one because of seasonal effects. This effect makes global outbreaks unlikely.</p>\n <p>(B) Timing of the influenza pandemic in the six regions under study. Results for different values of the reproductive rates are shown: <i>R₀</i> = 1.5 and <i>R₀</i> = 1.9 for a pandemic starting in October, and <i>R₀</i> = 1.9 and <i>R₀</i> = 2.3 for a pandemic starting in April. Results shown refer to the average profiles in each region when a global outbreak affecting more than 100 countries occurs, thus showing a typical timeline of a pandemic when affecting all regions.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["probability", "outbreaks", "pandemic", "seeded"], "article_id"=>623595, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Vittoria Colizza", "Alain Barrat", "Marc Barthélemy", "Alain-Jacques Valleron", "Alessandro Vespignani"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>2, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Baseline_Scenario_Probability_of_Global_Outbreaks_and_Expected_Evolution_for_a_Pandemic_Seeded_in_Bucharest_/623595", "title"=>"Baseline Scenario: Probability of Global Outbreaks and Expected Evolution for a Pandemic Seeded in Bucharest", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 12:51:06"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/953471"], "description"=>"<p>The two snapshots show the countries in orange that have a nonnull probability of being infected by the time Vietnam (seeded country) experiences an attack rate of 10⁻⁶ (A) and 10⁻⁵ (B) cases. Results refer to a pandemic originated in Hanoi in October with <i>R₀</i> = 1.9, with the assumption of unlimited AV supplies available. A country is defined as infected (experiencing an outbreak) if at least one generation of secondary cases occurs. Although the number of cases inside Vietnam is very low, the virus has already propagated out of the initial borders to other countries, thus providing several different seeds for the worldwide spread of the disease. Maps are obtained from open source geographic data and plotted with ArcGIS software.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["pandemic"], "article_id"=>623778, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Vittoria Colizza", "Alain Barrat", "Marc Barthélemy", "Alain-Jacques Valleron", "Alessandro Vespignani"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.g006", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>2, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Importance_of_Air_Travel_in_the_Worldwide_Spread_of_Pandemic_Influenza_/623778", "title"=>"Importance of Air Travel in the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 12:52:20"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/953641"], "description"=>"<div><p>(A), (C), and (E): Behavior in time of the cumulative number of symptomatic cases per 1,000 people, for a pandemic starting in Hanoi in October, according to different AV repartition strategies and to the baseline case. Given the rate of distribution <i>p_AV</i>, the value of the reproductive rate <i>R₀</i> up to which cooperative strategies effectively contain the pandemic are reported, <i>R₀ =</i> 1.9 and <i>p_AV</i> = 0.7/d (A), <i>R₀</i> = 1.7 and <i>p_AV</i> = 0.5/d (C), <i>R₀</i> = 1.5 and <i>p_AV</i> = 0.3/d (E).</p>\n <p>(B), (D), and (F): Average number of cases after the first year versus different values of the reproductive rate <i>R₀</i>, for a pandemic starting in Hanoi in October. Error bars represent the standard deviation around the average value. Different intervention strategies are compared to the baseline case. Different values of AV distribution rates are shown: <i>p_AV</i> = 0.7/d (B), 0.5/d (D), and 0.3/day (F). While cooperative strategies always outperform the uncooperative one, the benefit provided by the redistribution of AV resources decreases as <i>p_AV</i> decreases, for fixed values of <i>R₀</i>.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["scenarios", "av"], "article_id"=>623950, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Vittoria Colizza", "Alain Barrat", "Marc Barthélemy", "Alain-Jacques Valleron", "Alessandro Vespignani"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.g008", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Intervention_Scenarios_with_Limited_AV_Supplies_Global_Attack_Rates_/623950", "title"=>"Intervention Scenarios with Limited AV Supplies: Global Attack Rates", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 12:53:32"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/953128"], "description"=>"<p>The compartmentalization schemes adopted in the baseline scenario (left) and in the presence of intervention with the use of therapeutic AV treatment (right) are shown. “Sympt. T” and “Sympt. NT” correspond to infected symptomatic individuals allowed to travel and not allowed to travel, respectively. “Infect. AV” indicates infectious individuals under AV treatment, who are therefore not allowed to travel (NT).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["diagrams"], "article_id"=>623437, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Vittoria Colizza", "Alain Barrat", "Marc Barthélemy", "Alain-Jacques Valleron", "Alessandro Vespignani"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Flow_Diagrams_of_the_Transmission_Models_/623437", "title"=>"Flow Diagrams of the Transmission Models", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 12:50:03"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/953364"], "description"=>"<p>Probability of observing a global outbreak after one year from the beginning of the epidemic, for the values <i>R₀</i> = 1.1, 1.5, 1.9, and 2.3. A maximal coverage with unlimited AV supplies in all hit countries is assumed. Symptomatic cases receive AV drugs with rate <i>p_AV</i> = 0.7/d (A), 0.5/d (B), and 0.3/d (C).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["maximal", "av", "probability", "outbreaks", "pandemic", "seeded", "hanoi"], "article_id"=>623668, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Vittoria Colizza", "Alain Barrat", "Marc Barthélemy", "Alain-Jacques Valleron", "Alessandro Vespignani"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>13, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Intervention_Scenario_with_Maximal_AV_Coverage_Probability_of_Global_Outbreaks_for_a_Pandemic_Seeded_in_Hanoi_in_October_/623668", "title"=>"Intervention Scenario with Maximal AV Coverage: Probability of Global Outbreaks for a Pandemic Seeded in Hanoi in October", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 12:51:39"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/953751"], "description"=>"<p>Average prevalence profiles expected in the baseline case and the different intervention scenarios under study for a pandemic starting in Hanoi in October. Profiles for six global regions (A) are shown together with six illustrative examples of countries profiles (B), each taken from the corresponding region. For the sake of simplicity, only one cooperative strategy is shown, namely cooperative strategy II. Here <i>R₀</i> = 1.7 and AV drugs, when available, are distributed to symptomatic infectious individuals who enter the AV treatment with a rate <i>p_AV</i> = 0.5/d. The first 12-month period after the start of the pandemic is shown. The average attack rate after one year is reported for all regions/countries and containment strategies.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["scenarios", "av", "pandemic"], "article_id"=>624055, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Vittoria Colizza", "Alain Barrat", "Marc Barthélemy", "Alain-Jacques Valleron", "Alessandro Vespignani"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.g009", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>13, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Intervention_Scenarios_with_Limited_AV_Supplies_Expected_Pandemic_Evolution_/624055", "title"=>"Intervention Scenarios with Limited AV Supplies: Expected Pandemic Evolution", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 12:54:14"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/953054"], "description"=>"<p>The model includes 3,100 airports in 220 countries worldwide. The map portrays the locations of urban airports worldwide; geographical data are obtained from open sources on the Internet and mapped with ArcGIS software (<a href=\"http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis</a>). A schematic illustration represents the patch or metapopulation model adopted, in which the total population is divided into subpopulations each corresponding to the urban area surrounding each airport. Filled circles inside each subpopulation represent individuals, and the colors correspond to a specific stage of the disease. Homogeneous mixing for the infection dynamics is assumed inside each urban area, and different urban areas; subpopulations are coupled by means of air travel, according to the International Air Transport Association traffic fluxes.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["metapopulation"], "article_id"=>623362, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Vittoria Colizza", "Alain Barrat", "Marc Barthélemy", "Alain-Jacques Valleron", "Alessandro Vespignani"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>12, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Representation_of_the_Metapopulation_Model_Adopted_/623362", "title"=>"Representation of the Metapopulation Model Adopted", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 12:49:30"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/953209"], "description"=>"<div><p>(A) Probability of observing a global outbreak after one year from the beginning of the epidemic, for the values <i>R₀</i> = 1.1, 1.5, 1.9, and 2.3. A global outbreak occurs when more than one country reports infected cases, while the absence of a global outbreak is given by an epidemic affecting the initially seeded country only. Two different dates for the start of the pandemic are shown: October (left) and April (right). The average attack rates in the case that a global outbreak occurs are also reported, by showing the average number of cases per 1,000 at the end of the first year. Results are obtained from <i>n</i> = 500 different realizations of the noise.</p>\n <p>(B) Timing of the influenza pandemic in the six regions under study, for <i>R₀</i> = 1.5 and <i>R₀</i> = 1.9, for two different initial dates: October (left column) and April (right column). Sporadic activity occurs when the average prevalence reports (10⁻² − 1) cases per 1,000, while epidemic activity is defined by more than one case per 1,000. The average profile is obtained by considering all runs for each region that experienced an outbreak in the region itself during the time window investigated. The thick vertical line corresponds to one year after the start of the pandemic.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["probability", "outbreaks", "pandemic", "seeded"], "article_id"=>623516, "categories"=>["Biotechnology", "Medicine", "Infectious Diseases"], "users"=>["Vittoria Colizza", "Alain Barrat", "Marc Barthélemy", "Alain-Jacques Valleron", "Alessandro Vespignani"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>1, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Baseline_Scenario_Probability_of_Global_Outbreaks_and_Expected_Evolution_for_a_Pandemic_Seeded_in_Hanoi_/623516", "title"=>"Baseline Scenario: Probability of Global Outbreaks and Expected Evolution for a Pandemic Seeded in Hanoi", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-02-21 12:50:33"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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Relative Metric

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F1000Prime