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{"title"=>"Child Mortality Estimation: Consistency of Under-Five Mortality Rate Estimates Using Full Birth Histories and Summary Birth Histories", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Romesh", "last_name"=>"Silva"}], "year"=>2012, "source"=>"PLoS Medicine", "identifiers"=>{"sgr"=>"84865543587", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pmed.1001296", "pui"=>"366355528", "pmid"=>"22952436", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84865543587", "issn"=>"1549-1676", "isbn"=>"10.1371/journal.pmed.1001296"}, "id"=>"6c624911-af58-3a50-9c6e-830466f74125", "abstract"=>"BACKGROUND: Given the lack of complete vital registration data in most developing countries, for many countries it is not possible to accurately estimate under-five mortality rates from vital registration systems. Heavy reliance is often placed on direct and indirect methods for analyzing data collected from birth histories to estimate under-five mortality rates. Yet few systematic comparisons of these methods have been undertaken. This paper investigates whether analysts should use both direct and indirect estimates from full birth histories, and under what circumstances indirect estimates derived from summary birth histories should be used.\\n\\nMETHODS AND FINDINGS: Usings Demographic and Health Surveys data from West Africa, East Africa, Latin America, and South/Southeast Asia, I quantify the differences between direct and indirect estimates of under-five mortality rates, analyze data quality issues, note the relative effects of these issues, and test whether these issues explain the observed differences. I find that indirect estimates are generally consistent with direct estimates, after adjustment for fertility change and birth transference, but don't add substantial additional insight beyond direct estimates. However, choice of direct or indirect method was found to be important in terms of both the adjustment for data errors and the assumptions made about fertility.\\n\\nCONCLUSIONS: Although adjusted indirect estimates are generally consistent with adjusted direct estimates, some notable inconsistencies were observed for countries that had experienced either a political or economic crisis or stalled health transition in their recent past. This result suggests that when a population has experienced a smooth mortality decline or only short periods of excess mortality, both adjusted methods perform equally well. However, the observed inconsistencies identified suggest that the indirect method is particularly prone to bias resulting from violations of its strong assumptions about recent mortality and fertility. Hence, indirect estimates of under-five mortality rates from summary birth histories should be used only for populations that have experienced either smooth mortality declines or only short periods of excess mortality in their recent past. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/child-mortality-estimation-consistency-underfive-mortality-rate-estimates-using-full-birth-histories", "reader_count"=>48, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Librarian"=>2, "Researcher"=>13, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>6, "Student > Postgraduate"=>3, "Student > Master"=>12, "Student > Bachelor"=>3, "Professor"=>3, "Unspecified"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>2, "Librarian"=>2, "Researcher"=>13, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>3, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>6, "Student > Postgraduate"=>3, "Student > Master"=>12, "Student > Bachelor"=>3, "Professor"=>3, "Unspecified"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Engineering"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>2, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>1, "Mathematics"=>2, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>16, "Arts and Humanities"=>1, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>2, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>2, "Social Sciences"=>16, "Computer Science"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1, "Unspecified"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>16}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>16}, "Mathematics"=>{"Mathematics"=>2}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>2}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>1}, "Arts and Humanities"=>{"Arts and Humanities"=>1}, "Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>1}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>1}, "Nursing and Health Professions"=>{"Nursing and Health Professions"=>1}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>2}, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>{"Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>2}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>1, "South Africa"=>1, "Kenya"=>3}, "group_count"=>1}

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• http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101112
• http://doi.org/10.1186/s13643-017-0560-1
• http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002757
• http://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(16)00085-1
• http://doi.org/10.1186/s13643-019-0991-y
• http://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2020.42.20
• http://doi.org/10.1590/S1519-38292014000400003
• http://doi.org/10.1590/0102-311X00196113
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• http://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0
• http://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-019-0058-x
• http://doi.org/10.1186/1478-7954-12-16
• http://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2013.856458
• http://doi.org/10.4094/chnr.2020.26.4.463
• http://doi.org/10.1111/biom.13383
• http://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15311.1
• http://doi.org/10.4178/epih/e2015003
• http://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12104
• http://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2016.34.39
• http://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-019-0184-x
• http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002687
• http://doi.org/10.1007/s10995-018-2476-3
• http://doi.org/10.1590/0102-311x00206015
• http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0176366

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• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/307488"], "description"=>"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Given the lack of complete vital registration data in most developing countries, for many countries it is not possible to accurately estimate under-five mortality rates from vital registration systems. Heavy reliance is often placed on direct and indirect methods for analyzing data collected from birth histories to estimate under-five mortality rates. Yet few systematic comparisons of these methods have been undertaken. This paper investigates whether analysts should use both direct and indirect estimates from full birth histories, and under what circumstances indirect estimates derived from summary birth histories should be used.</p> <h3>Methods and Findings</h3><p>Usings Demographic and Health Surveys data from West Africa, East Africa, Latin America, and South/Southeast Asia, I quantify the differences between direct and indirect estimates of under-five mortality rates, analyze data quality issues, note the relative effects of these issues, and test whether these issues explain the observed differences. I find that indirect estimates are generally consistent with direct estimates, after adjustment for fertility change and birth transference, but don't add substantial additional insight beyond direct estimates. However, choice of direct or indirect method was found to be important in terms of both the adjustment for data errors and the assumptions made about fertility.</p> <h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Although adjusted indirect estimates are generally consistent with adjusted direct estimates, some notable inconsistencies were observed for countries that had experienced either a political or economic crisis or stalled health transition in their recent past. This result suggests that when a population has experienced a smooth mortality decline or only short periods of excess mortality, both adjusted methods perform equally well. However, the observed inconsistencies identified suggest that the indirect method is particularly prone to bias resulting from violations of its strong assumptions about recent mortality and fertility. Hence, indirect estimates of under-five mortality rates from summary birth histories should be used only for populations that have experienced either smooth mortality declines or only short periods of excess mortality in their recent past.</p> <p> <em>Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.</em></p> </div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Sociology", "demography", "consistency", "under-five", "estimates", "histories"], "article_id"=>120676, "categories"=>["Sociology"], "users"=>["Romesh Silva"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001296"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Child_Mortality_Estimation_Consistency_of_Under_Five_Mortality_Rate_Estimates_Using_Full_Birth_Histories_and_Summary_Birth_Histories/120676", "title"=>"Child Mortality Estimation: Consistency of Under-Five Mortality Rate Estimates Using Full Birth Histories and Summary Birth Histories", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2012-08-28 00:11:16"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/584787"], "description"=>"<p>Direct and indirect estimates of under-five mortality rates from available DHS survey data for Nigeria and Nepal.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Sociology", "demography", "indirect", "estimates", "under-five", "rates", "dhs", "nigeria"], "article_id"=>255281, "categories"=>["Sociology"], "users"=>["Romesh Silva"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001296.g001"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Direct_and_indirect_estimates_of_under_five_mortality_rates_from_available_DHS_survey_data_for_Nigeria_and_Nepal_/255281", "title"=>"Direct and indirect estimates of under-five mortality rates from available DHS survey data for Nigeria and Nepal.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-08-28 01:28:01"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/584891"], "description"=>"<p>Birth concentration indexes by DHS phase for births of surviving and dead children in the last year of eligibility for the survey health module and in year prior to the last year of eligibility.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Sociology", "demography", "transference", "births", "surviving"], "article_id"=>255392, "categories"=>["Sociology"], "users"=>["Romesh Silva"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001296.g002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Birth_transference_for_births_of_surviving_and_dead_children_/255392", "title"=>"Birth transference for births of surviving and dead children.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-08-28 01:29:52"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/585017"], "description"=>"<p>Regions include South/Southeast Asia (ASIA), Latin America and the Caribbean (LATC), East and Central Africa (SAEC), and West Africa (SAWC). In each panel, the left box plot displays the relative paired difference between raw direct estimates and classical Brass indirect estimates (UU); the middle box plot displays the relative paired difference between direct estimates that have been adjusted for birth transference and classical Brass indirect estimates (UA); and the right box plot displays the relative paired difference between direct estimates after adjustment for birth transference and cohort-parity-based Brass estimates (AA). Source: DHS 1985–2009.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Sociology", "demography", "paired", "differences", "under-five", "estimates", "derived", "dhs", "surveys", "geographic"], "article_id"=>255506, "categories"=>["Sociology"], "users"=>["Romesh Silva"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001296.g003"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relative_paired_differences_between_under_five_mortality_rate_estimates_derived_from_DHS_surveys_by_age_group_of_mother_and_geographic_region_/255506", "title"=>"Relative paired differences between under-five mortality rate estimates derived from DHS surveys by age group of mother and geographic region.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-08-28 01:31:46"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/585139"], "description"=>"<p>Categories: epidemiologic crisis (EPI), political and economic crisis (PEC), smooth mortality decline (SMD), periods of stagnation (STA), and periods of excess mortality (XSM).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Sociology", "demography", "paired", "differences", "under-five", "rates", "countries", "garenne", "gakusi"], "article_id"=>255628, "categories"=>["Sociology"], "users"=>["Romesh Silva"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001296.g004"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Estimated_relative_paired_differences_for_under_five_mortality_rates_for_developing_countries_organized_by_Garenne_and_Gakusi_14_categories_/255628", "title"=>"Estimated relative paired differences for under-five mortality rates for developing countries organized by Garenne and Gakusi [<b>14</b>] categories.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-08-28 01:33:48"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/585229"], "description"=>"<p>Differences in estimated trends of adjusted under-five mortality rates for example countries organized by Garenne and Gakusi <a href=\"http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001296#pmed.1001296-Garenne1\" target=\"_blank\">[<b>14</b>]</a> categories.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Sociology", "demography", "trends", "adjusted", "under-five", "rates", "countries", "garenne", "gakusi"], "article_id"=>255725, "categories"=>["Sociology"], "users"=>["Romesh Silva"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001296.g005"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Differences_in_estimated_trends_of_adjusted_under_five_mortality_rates_for_example_countries_organized_by_Garenne_and_Gakusi_14_categories_/255725", "title"=>"Differences in estimated trends of adjusted under-five mortality rates for example countries organized by Garenne and Gakusi [<b>14</b>] categories.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-08-28 01:35:25"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/585305"], "description"=>"<p>Source: DHS 1985–2009.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Sociology", "demography", "sources", "consistency", "indirect", "under-five", "estimates"], "article_id"=>255804, "categories"=>["Sociology"], "users"=>["Romesh Silva"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001296.t001"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Data_sources_used_to_examine_consistency_of_direct_and_indirect_under_five_mortality_rate_estimates_from_a_common_data_source_/255804", "title"=>"Data sources used to examine consistency of direct and indirect under-five mortality rate estimates from a common data source.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2012-08-28 01:36:44"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/585341"], "description"=>"<p>Relative paired differences (reported at percentages) between direct and indirect estimates across geographic regions derived using DHS surveys.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Sociology", "demography", "paired", "differences", "indirect", "estimates", "geographic", "regions", "derived", "dhs"], "article_id"=>255829, "categories"=>["Sociology"], "users"=>["Romesh Silva"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001296.t002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Relative_paired_differences_reported_at_percentages_between_direct_and_indirect_estimates_across_geographic_regions_derived_using_DHS_surveys_/255829", "title"=>"Relative paired differences (reported at percentages) between direct and indirect estimates across geographic regions derived using DHS surveys.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2012-08-28 01:37:09"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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Relative Metric

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F1000Prime